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Index Contents AGRICECON volume 67 索引内容农业经济第67卷
Pub Date : 2021-12-15 DOI: 10.17221/14000-agricecon
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引用次数: 0
Has the euro been fattening the European pig meat trade? 欧元是否一直在助长欧洲猪肉贸易?
Pub Date : 2021-12-14 DOI: 10.17221/109/2021-agricecon
M. Clop-Gallart, M. I. Juárez, Montserrat Viladrich-Grau
The introduction of the euro is one of the great achievements of the European integration process. We ask whether the creation of the euro led to a significant increase in pig meat trade in the eurozone. The pig meat industry is the most important in the European meat sector, and the EU is the world's second-biggest producer of pork and the leading supplier of pig meat to the global market. No study has yet been conducted in this respect for this sector. Our results suggest that pig meat trade was encouraged between countries sharing the euro, although the impact of EU single market was still greater. Trade creation was also observed, increasing pig meat exports from eurozone to non-eurozone countries. Also, non-eurozone EU exporters suffer from a diversion effect that benefits eurozone exporters.
欧元的引入是欧洲一体化进程的伟大成就之一。我们想知道,欧元的诞生是否导致了欧元区猪肉贸易的显著增长。猪肉产业是欧洲肉类行业中最重要的,欧盟是世界第二大猪肉生产国,也是全球市场猪肉的主要供应商。目前还没有对这一部门进行这方面的研究。我们的研究结果表明,尽管欧盟单一市场的影响仍然更大,但在共享欧元的国家之间,猪肉贸易得到了鼓励。贸易创造也被观察到,增加了欧元区对非欧元区国家的猪肉出口。此外,非欧元区的欧盟出口商受到了有利于欧元区出口商的转移效应的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Are soft commodities markets affected by the Halloween effect? 软商品市场是否受到万圣节效应的影响?
Pub Date : 2021-12-07 DOI: 10.17221/216/2021-agricecon
M. Krawiec, A. Górska
Within the last three decades commodity markets, including soft commodities markets, have become more and more like financial markets. As a result, prices of commodities may exhibit similar patterns or anomalies as those observed in the behaviour of different financial assets. Their existence may cast doubts on the competitiveness and efficiency of commodity markets. It motivates us to conduct the research presented in this paper, aimed at examining the Halloween effect in the markets of basic soft commodities (cocoa, coffee, cotton, frozen concentrated orange juice, rubber and sugar) from 1999 to 2020. This long-time span ensures the credibility of results. Apart from performing the two-sample t-test and the rank-sum Wilcoxon test, we additionally investigate the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effect. Its presence in our data allows us to estimate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity [GARCH (1, 1)] models with dummies representing the Halloween effect. We also investigate the impact of the January effect on the Halloween effect. Results reveal the significant Halloween effect for cotton (driven by the January effect) and the significant reverse Halloween effect for sugar. It brings implications useful to the main actors in the market. They may apply trading strategies generating satisfactory profits or providing hedging against unfavourable changes in soft commodities prices.
在过去的三十年里,商品市场,包括软商品市场,已经变得越来越像金融市场。因此,商品价格可能表现出与在不同金融资产的行为中观察到的相似的模式或异常。它们的存在可能使人们对商品市场的竞争力和效率产生怀疑。这促使我们进行本文提出的研究,旨在研究1999年至2020年万圣节对基本软商品(可可、咖啡、棉花、冷冻浓缩橙汁、橡胶和糖)市场的影响。如此长的时间跨度确保了结果的可信度。除了进行双样本t检验和秩和Wilcoxon检验外,我们还研究了自回归条件异方差(ARCH)效应。它在我们的数据中的存在使我们能够估计广义自回归条件异方差[GARCH(1,1)]模型,其中假人代表万圣节效应。我们还研究了一月效应对万圣节效应的影响。结果显示,棉花的万圣节效应显著(受一月效应驱动),糖的万圣节效应显著相反。它给市场上的主要参与者带来了有益的启示。他们可以运用交易策略产生满意的利润或提供对冲软商品价格的不利变化。
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引用次数: 0
Factors affecting competition in olive oil exports: Panel data analysis of selected countries. Case study 影响橄榄油出口竞争的因素:选定国家的面板数据分析。案例研究
Pub Date : 2021-11-26 DOI: 10.17221/494/2020-agricecon
Ferhat Pehli̇vanoğlu, Cemile Erarslan, Sedanur Demir
Recently, the growing interest in healthy and organic nutrition has led to an increase in both the consumption and production of olive oil. The fact that olive and olive oil production is mostly concentrated in the countries with a coastline on the Mediterranean has rendered their olive oil exports important in meeting the increasing demand for olive oil. For the exporting countries, this has raised the issues of having a large share in the international olive oil market and increasing their competitiveness. The importance of increasing competitiveness, especially for countries that generate income from agricultural production, is the driving force for conducting this study. The aim of the study was to determine the factors affecting the comparative advantages of the leading olive oil-exporting countries. In this context, the olive oil production, consumption and unit export prices of Turkey, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece and Tunisia for the 2000–2019 period were tested with a panel data analysis method to ascertain whether these variables have any significant effect on the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index. According to the findings, olive oil production affects the RCA index positively, whereas olive oil consumption affects it negatively in a statistically significant way.
最近,对健康和有机营养日益增长的兴趣导致了橄榄油的消费和生产的增加。橄榄油和橄榄油的生产主要集中在地中海沿岸的国家,这使得这些国家的橄榄油出口在满足日益增长的橄榄油需求方面非常重要。对于出口国来说,这就提出了在国际橄榄油市场上占有较大份额和提高竞争力的问题。提高竞争力的重要性,特别是对那些从农业生产中获得收入的国家来说,是开展这项研究的动力。这项研究的目的是确定影响主要橄榄油出口国比较优势的因素。在此背景下,采用面板数据分析方法对土耳其、西班牙、意大利、葡萄牙、希腊和突尼斯四国2000-2019年期间的橄榄油生产、消费和单位出口价格进行检验,以确定这些变量是否对显性比较优势(RCA)指数有显著影响。根据研究结果,橄榄油的生产对RCA指数有积极的影响,而橄榄油的消费对RCA指数有显著的负向影响。
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引用次数: 1
One or many European models of agriculture? How heterogeneity influences income creation among farms in the European Union 一种或多种欧洲农业模式?异质性如何影响欧盟农场的收入创造
Pub Date : 2021-11-12 DOI: 10.17221/154/2021-agricecon
Łukasz Kryszak, Thomas Herzfeld
Agricultural structures are quite heterogeneous across the European Union (EU), and it is likely that the underlying technology also differs across regions. In this article, we claim that the heterogeneity of agriculture across the EU affects the process of income creation (i.e. the relative importance of the factors of farm income differ for different agricultural models). A panel of farms representative for 125 regions reporting to the EU Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) during the period from 2007 to 2018 is used. In this article, those regions are grouped into three clusters. A system generalised method of moments (GMM) panel estimator is applied to each cluster. The results showed that total factor productivity (TFP), relative prices and agricultural subsidies make different contributions to farm net value added (FNVA). In particular, the income growth of farms in regions dominated by large farms seems to react more to marginal changes of the explanatory variables.
整个欧盟(EU)的农业结构相当不均匀,很可能不同地区的基础技术也不同。在本文中,我们声称整个欧盟农业的异质性影响了收入创造的过程(即不同农业模式下农业收入因素的相对重要性不同)。在2007年至2018年期间,由125个地区的农场代表组成的小组向欧盟农场会计数据网络(FADN)报告。在本文中,这些区域被分为三个集群。采用系统广义矩量(GMM)面板估计方法对每个聚类进行估计。结果表明,全要素生产率(TFP)、相对价格和农业补贴对农业净增加值的贡献不同。特别是,在大农场占主导地位的地区,农场的收入增长似乎更多地对解释变量的边际变化作出反应。
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引用次数: 1
The butterfly effect in the price of agricultural products: A multidimensional spatial-temporal association mining 农产品价格的蝴蝶效应:一个多维时空关联挖掘
Pub Date : 2021-11-12 DOI: 10.17221/128/2021-agricecon
Yan Guo, Xiaonan Hu, Zepeng Wang, Wei Tang, Deyu Liu, Yunzhong Luo, Hongxiang Xu
With the advent of the era of big data, data mining methods show their powerful information mining ability in various fields, seeking the association information hidden in the data, which is convenient for people to make scientific decisions. This paper analyses the butterfly effect in the agricultural product industry chain from the perspective of producer and consumer by using multidimensional time and space theory and proposes a new price forecasting method. We consider that the price change of agricultural products is not only affected by the balance of market supply and demand but also by the factors of time and space. Taking the pig industry chain of Sichuan Province as an example, this paper explores and excavates the data from 2010 to 2020 in the time dimension. Interestingly, we found that the price changes in pork in the market are generally highly correlated with the prices of slaughtered pigs, piglets a few weeks ago and the prices of multiple feed a few months ago. Based on the precise time-space factors, we improved the price forecasting model, greatly improved the accuracy of price prediction, and proved the effectiveness of multidimensional spatiotemporal association mining. The research in this paper is helpful to establish a brand-new agricultural product price prediction theory, which is of great significance to the development of the agricultural economy and global poverty alleviation.
随着大数据时代的到来,数据挖掘方法在各个领域显示出强大的信息挖掘能力,寻找隐藏在数据中的关联信息,方便人们做出科学决策。本文运用多维时空理论,从生产者和消费者的角度对农产品产业链中的蝴蝶效应进行了分析,提出了一种新的价格预测方法。我们认为农产品价格的变化不仅受到市场供求平衡的影响,还受到时间和空间因素的影响。本文以四川省生猪产业链为例,在时间维度上对2010 - 2020年的数据进行了探索和挖掘。有趣的是,我们发现市场上猪肉的价格变化通常与几周前的屠宰猪、仔猪价格和几个月前的复合饲料价格高度相关。基于精确的时空因子,改进了价格预测模型,大大提高了价格预测的精度,证明了多维时空关联挖掘的有效性。本文的研究有助于建立一种全新的农产品价格预测理论,对农业经济的发展和全球扶贫具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 6
Agricultural market information in developing countries: A literature review 发展中国家农业市场信息:文献综述
Pub Date : 2021-11-09 DOI: 10.17221/129/2021-agricecon
A. Nugroho
In most developing countries, the agricultural industry has the potential to alleviate poverty at a faster rate compared to other sectors. As such, many governments have initiated policies and programme to improve agricultural performance. However, some of these projects have not achieved success because the local agricultural markets are often controlled by a small group of stakeholders who tend to hide information in the market despite having huge market power. This paper aimed to determine the issues and impacts of the lack of market information in developing countries and to provide strategies for solving such problems. Results show that the presence of an oligopsonic market system, current information and communication technology (ICTs), the lack of market infrastructure and gender limitations are the main issues related to a lack of information. In turn, lack of information leads to an inefficient agricultural market, causes negative impacts on market participants, and ultimately leads to harmful socio-economic effects. Thus, to solve these problems, it is necessary to improve capacity building, increase access to ICTs and improve market infrastructure.
在大多数发展中国家,与其他部门相比,农业具有以更快的速度减轻贫困的潜力。因此,许多政府已经启动了改善农业绩效的政策和方案。然而,其中一些项目没有取得成功,因为当地农业市场往往由一小群利益相关者控制,这些利益相关者尽管拥有巨大的市场力量,但往往将信息隐藏在市场中。本文旨在确定发展中国家缺乏市场信息的问题和影响,并提供解决这些问题的策略。结果表明,寡头垄断市场体系的存在、当前的信息和通信技术(ict)、市场基础设施的缺乏和性别限制是与信息缺乏相关的主要问题。反过来,信息缺乏导致农业市场效率低下,对市场参与者造成负面影响,最终导致有害的社会经济影响。因此,要解决这些问题,必须加强能力建设,增加信息通信技术的使用,改善市场基础设施。
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引用次数: 6
Agricultural production trends towards carbon neutrality in response to the EU 2030 Green Deal: Economic and environmental analysis in horticulture 为响应欧盟2030绿色协议,农业生产趋向碳中和:园艺的经济和环境分析
Pub Date : 2021-10-26 DOI: 10.17221/145/2021-agricecon
A. Scuderi, Mariarita Cammarata, F. Branca, G. Timpanaro
The European Green Deal to tackle climate change sets emission reduction targets for 2050. Particular attention has been paid to the agricultural sector, where there is a strong need to reduce carbon emissions and re-establish the natural carbon cycles. The concept of carbon neutrality is emerging in a scenario where it is necessary to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from cultivation to near zero. The quantification of carbon emissions was carried out by the carbon footprint (CF) of conventional, organic and zero residue potato cultivation in Sicily. In order to provide farmers and consumers with answers regarding the most sustainable cultivation regime, the results showed that the organic and zero residue methods have the best results in terms of emissions; the latter instead revealed the positive results in economic terms. It becomes a new model to follow in the pursuit of sustainability as it is based on the reduction of synthesis inputs and is free from the constraints imposed by organic production standards.
旨在应对气候变化的《欧洲绿色协议》设定了2050年的减排目标。特别注意的是农业部门,在那里迫切需要减少碳排放和重建自然碳循环。碳中和的概念是在有必要将种植过程中的二氧化碳(CO2)排放量减少到接近零的情况下出现的。采用西西里岛常规马铃薯种植、有机马铃薯种植和零残留马铃薯种植的碳足迹(CF)对碳排放进行量化。为了给农民和消费者提供关于最可持续的种植制度的答案,结果表明,有机和零残留方法在排放方面具有最佳效果;后者反而揭示了经济方面的积极成果。它成为追求可持续性的新模式,因为它以减少合成投入为基础,不受有机生产标准的限制。
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引用次数: 7
Price transmission in biofuel-related global agricultural networks 与生物燃料相关的全球农业网络的价格传递
Pub Date : 2021-10-26 DOI: 10.17221/223/2021-agricecon
K. Janda, L. Kristoufek, Barbora Schererová, D. Zilberman
This article investigates the connections among the prices of biofuels, agricultural commodities and other relevant assets in Europe, the US, and Brazil. The analysis includes a comprehensive data set covering price data for 38 traded titles during the period from 2003 to 2020. We used the minimum spanning tree (MST) approach to identify price connections in a complex trading system. Our analysis of mutual price connections reveals the major defining features of world-leading biofuel markets. We provide the characteristics of the main bioethanol and biodiesel markets with respect to government policies and technical and local features of the production and consumption of particular biofuels. Despite a relatively long and dynamically evolving history of biofuels, the biofuel systems in the US, Brazil and Europe do not converge toward the same pattern of relations among fossil fuels, biofuels, agricultural commodities and financial assets.
本文研究了欧洲、美国和巴西的生物燃料、农产品和其他相关资产的价格之间的联系。该分析包括一个全面的数据集,涵盖了2003年至2020年期间38个交易所有权的价格数据。我们使用最小生成树(MST)方法来识别复杂交易系统中的价格联系。我们对相互价格联系的分析揭示了世界领先生物燃料市场的主要特征。我们提供主要生物乙醇和生物柴油市场的特点,包括政府政策以及特定生物燃料生产和消费的技术和地方特点。尽管生物燃料的历史相对较长且动态发展,但美国、巴西和欧洲的生物燃料系统并没有朝着化石燃料、生物燃料、农产品和金融资产之间相同的关系模式趋同。
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引用次数: 1
Technical efficiency of the food and drink industry and its determinants 食品和饮料工业的技术效率及其决定因素
Pub Date : 2021-10-26 DOI: 10.17221/93/2021-agricecon
Zdeňka Náglová, Marie Šimpachová Pechrová
This study focuses on evaluating the technical efficiency (TE) of food and drink companies in the Czech Republic and on finding its determinants. The analysis is based on the data of 597 firms and uses the stochastic frontier method. We have identified the key players in the market and the less effective groups of processors. Foreign-owned companies have a strong position because of a better economy, but the results showed that their efficiency is comparable with that of Czech-owned companies. The results helped confirm that the size of the company influences its TE. The lowest efficiency was observed in small companies. TE also differed among branches of the food industry. The highest efficiency was in the bakery and milk industries, and the lowest efficiency was in fruit and vegetable processing. Subsidised firms reached a significantly higher efficiency. With respect to economic results, there is still a need to improve competitiveness through investments.
本研究的重点是评估捷克共和国食品和饮料公司的技术效率(TE),并找到其决定因素。本文基于597家企业的数据,采用随机前沿法进行分析。我们已经确定了市场上的主要参与者和效率较低的加工者群体。由于经济状况较好,外资企业处于强势地位,但结果显示,它们的效率与捷克企业相当。结果有助于证实公司规模影响其TE。效率最低的是小公司。TE在食品工业的各个分支之间也存在差异。效率最高的是烘焙和牛奶行业,效率最低的是水果和蔬菜加工行业。得到补贴的企业效率显著提高。在经济成果方面,仍然需要通过投资来提高竞争力。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika)
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