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Modelling the Australasian Financial Cycle: A Markov-Regime Switching Approach 澳大拉西亚金融周期建模:马尔可夫制度转换方法
Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.25103/ijbesar.141.06
Milan Christian de Wet
Purpose: The importance of the financial cycle has become a central point of consideration for policymakers since the 2007-08 financial crisis. This study aimed to construct and characterize the aggregate Australasian financial cycle.
目的:自2007-08年金融危机以来,金融周期的重要性已成为政策制定者考虑的中心问题。本研究旨在建构及表征澳洲整体金融周期。
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引用次数: 2
Contagious Bubbles 传染性的泡沫
Pub Date : 2021-06-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3875625
Feng Dong, Zhengxin Huo, Y. Wen
This paper proposes a framework to study contagious stock bubbles in a multi-sector production economy with heterogeneous investment technologies. Due to financial frictions, stock bubbles arise endogenously that help inject additional liquidity. Due to financial linkages, the existence of bubbles in different sectors may be interdependent. Theoretically, we characterize the entire set of bubbly equilibria, and provide the condition under which the burst of bubbles in one sector spikes bubbles in other sectors. Quantitatively, we show that due to an unexpected burst of bubbles, it can generate a sizeable recession only when the burst happens in a critical sector and transmits to the rest of the economy.
本文提出了一个研究具有异质投资技术的多部门生产经济中传染性股票泡沫的框架。由于金融摩擦,股票泡沫的内生产生有助于注入额外的流动性。由于金融联系,不同部门泡沫的存在可能是相互依存的。在理论上,我们描述了整个泡沫均衡的特征,并提供了一个部门的泡沫破裂引发其他部门泡沫的条件。在数量上,我们表明,由于意外的泡沫破裂,只有当泡沫破裂发生在关键部门并传播到经济的其他部分时,它才会产生相当大的衰退。
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引用次数: 0
Selection and Application of Appropriate Analytical Methods Needed to Assess the Risks Reducing the Security of the Protected System 评估降低被保护系统安全性的风险所需的适当分析方法的选择和应用
Pub Date : 2021-06-25 DOI: 10.30525/2256-0742/2021-7-3-1-8
J. Reitšpís, Martin Mašľan, Ihor Britchenko
Risk assessment is one of the prerequisites for understanding its causes and possible consequences. We base our risk assessment on the principles described in the European standard EN 31000 - Risk Management Process. This standard comprehensively describes the continuous activities that are necessary in managing risks and minimizing their possible adverse effects on the operation of the system under investigation. In this activity, it is necessary to first identify the existing risks, then analyze and evaluate the identified risks. In the analysis of existing risks, it is possible to use both qualitative and quantitative analytical methods, or combine them. We use qualitative methods in cases where we do not have a sufficient amount of input information, these are more subjective. Quantitative methods are more accurate, but also more demanding on input information and time. The choice of a suitable analytical method is a basic prerequisite for knowledge of risks and their evaluation. The values of individual risks obtained in this way are the basis for determining the measures that are necessary to minimize them, i.e., to adjust them to an acceptable level. The draft measures are always based on the value of the individual components used to calculate the risk number, as well as on the value of the asset , which needs to be protected. Appropriately chosen analytical methods are one of the basic prerequisites for the consistent application of the principles of risk management, as a continuous process aimed at increasing the overall security of the system under study. In the article, the author describes the procedures used in risk assessment, as well as specific analytical methods that can be used in working with risks. The aim of identifying risk factors is to create a list of events that could cause undesirable disruption to ongoing processes. At this stage, we define all the risks that will be subsequently analyzed and evaluated. When identifying, we can use methods such as, e.g. SWOT, PHA (Preliminary Hazard Analysis) or CA (Checklist Analysis). Methods suitable for determining the causes and creating scenarios for the course of a risk event are ETA (Event Tree Analysis) or FTA (Fault Tree Analysis). The basic analysis of the system can be performed using the FMEA method (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), which provides a numerical risk assessment. By comparison with the numerical value of the risk that we are willing to accept, we obtain 2 groups of risks. Acceptable, which will be given regular attention and unacceptable, which we will focus on in risk management and we will try to minimize its negative affect on the functioning of the system under study.
风险评估是了解其原因和可能后果的先决条件之一。我们的风险评估基于欧洲标准EN 31000 -风险管理过程中描述的原则。本标准全面描述了管理风险和最小化其对所调查体系运行可能产生的不利影响所必需的持续活动。在这个活动中,首先要识别存在的风险,然后对识别出来的风险进行分析和评价。在对现有风险的分析中,可以同时使用定性和定量分析方法,或者两者结合使用。在没有足够输入信息的情况下,我们使用定性方法,这些方法更主观。定量方法更准确,但对输入信息和时间的要求也更高。选择合适的分析方法是了解风险及其评估的基本前提。以这种方式获得的个别风险值是确定必要措施的基础,以尽量减少风险,即将其调整到可接受的水平。这些措施草案总是基于用于计算风险数的单个组件的价值,以及需要保护的资产的价值。适当选择的分析方法是一贯应用风险管理原则的基本先决条件之一,是一个旨在增加所研究系统的全面安全的持续过程。在文章中,作者描述了在风险评估中使用的程序,以及在处理风险时可以使用的具体分析方法。识别风险因素的目的是创建一个事件列表,这些事件可能会对正在进行的过程造成不期望的中断。在这个阶段,我们定义了所有的风险,这些风险随后将被分析和评估。在识别时,我们可以使用诸如SWOT, PHA(初步危害分析)或CA(检查表分析)等方法。适用于确定风险事件发生原因和创建场景的方法有ETA(事件树分析)和FTA(故障树分析)。系统的基本分析可以使用FMEA(失效模式和影响分析)方法进行,该方法提供了数值风险评估。通过与我们愿意接受的风险数值的比较,我们得到了两组风险。可接受的,我们将经常予以注意;不可接受的,我们将在风险管理中集中注意,我们将尽量减少其对所研究系统运作的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing the Competitive Advantage of the Germinated Parboiled Rice 提高发芽蒸熟米的竞争优势
Pub Date : 2021-06-25 DOI: 10.35609/gjbssr.2021.9.2(5)
Watcharapong Intarawong, P. S. N. Ayudhya, Chattawat Limsurapong, Kullanun Sripongpun
Objective - This research aims to; 1) study the competitive advantage and firm performance of the geminated parboiled rice community enterprise group, 2) investigate the differences in competitive advantage and firm performance when classified by organizational factors, 3) study the difference in the influence of competitive advantage on firm performance, and 4) determine proposals to enhance competitive advantage.Methodology/Technique - This research uses mixed research methods. The quantitative method was used to study the influence of competitive advantage on firm performance of community enterprises, and a qualitative method was used to determine proposals to enhance competitive advantage. In Step 1, a quantitative research method was used to identify the population which includes management groups of 36 geminated parboiled rice community enterprises consisting of a chairperson, a vice-chairperson and a supervisor of 208 people, and 137 samples. Proportional sampling and simple random sampling were used in this process. Data was collected using questionnaires. The statistics used for data analysis was frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, F-test (one way ANOVA), Pearson's correlation coefficient, and hierarchical regression analysis. In step 2, data was collected from in-depth interviews with key informants, using a purposive sampling method. Data analysis from the interviews using the information obtained from the interview into categories and using content analysis to determine proposals.Findings - The research results found that competitive advantage and firm performance was high. The hypothesis testing results show that only the age of the community enterprise has an effect on the image of the community enterprise with the statistical significance of 0.05. All 3 independent variables composed of cost leadership, differentiation, and market focus had an influence on firm performance, by standardized coefficients (β) was .398, .426, .654 respectively.Novelty - The proposals from this research include the establishment of newly geminated parboiled rice community enterprises to accelerate the creation of the organization image to be known and accepted by consumers. Further, community enterprises should focus on developing a competitive advantage that comes from a market focus strategy. This will have a positive impact on firm performance.Type of Paper - Empirical.Keywords: Geminated Parboiled Rice; Community Enterprise; Competitive Advantage; Firm PerformanceJEL Classification:URI: http://gatrenterprise.com/GATRJournals/GJBSSR/vol9.2_5.htmlDOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/gjbssr.2021.9.2(5)Pages 152 – 164
目的-本研究旨在;(1)研究半精米社区企业集团的竞争优势与企业绩效,(2)研究按组织因素分类时竞争优势与企业绩效的差异,(3)研究竞争优势对企业绩效影响的差异,(4)确定提升竞争优势的建议。方法/技术-本研究使用混合研究方法。采用定量方法研究了竞争优势对社区企业绩效的影响,并采用定性方法确定了提升竞争优势的建议。第一步,采用定量研究的方法,对36家精米社区企业的管理小组进行群体确定,该管理小组由1名董事长、1名副董事长、1名监督员组成,共208人,样本137份。在此过程中采用了比例抽样和简单随机抽样。通过问卷调查收集数据。用于数据分析的统计数据为频率、百分比、平均值、标准差、f检验(单因素方差分析)、Pearson相关系数和层次回归分析。在步骤2中,使用有目的的抽样方法,通过对关键举报人的深入访谈收集数据。数据分析从访谈中使用从访谈中获得的信息进行分类,并使用内容分析来确定建议。研究结果-研究结果发现,竞争优势和企业绩效高。假设检验结果表明,只有社区企业的年龄对社区企业的形象有影响,且有统计学意义为0.05。成本领先、差异化和市场焦点三个自变量对企业绩效均有影响,标准化系数(β)分别为0.398、0.426和0.654。新颖性-本研究的建议包括建立新兴的米饭社区企业,以加速创造为消费者所知和接受的组织形象。此外,社区企业应注重发展来自市场聚焦战略的竞争优势。这将对公司业绩产生积极影响。论文类型-经验性。关键词:糙米;社会企业;竞争优势;公司绩效jel分类:URI: http://gatrenterprise.com/GATRJournals/GJBSSR/vol9.2_5.htmlDOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/gjbssr.2021.9.2(5)Pages 152 - 164
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引用次数: 0
Deep Reinforcement Learning on a Multi-Asset Environment for Trading 多资产交易环境下的深度强化学习
Pub Date : 2021-06-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3867800
Ali Hirsa, Branka Hadji Misheva, Joerg Osterrieder, Jan-Alexander Posth
Financial trading has been widely analyzed for decades with market participants and academics always looking for advanced methods to improve trading performance. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL), a recently reinvigorated method with significant success in multiple domains, still has to show its benefit in the financial markets. We use a deep Q-network (DQN) to design long-short trading strategies for futures contracts. The state space consists of volatility-normalized daily returns, with buying or selling being the reinforcement learning action and the total reward defined as the cumulative profits from our actions. Our trading strategy is trained and tested both on real and simulated price series and we compare the results with an index benchmark. We analyze how training based on a combination of artificial data and actual price series can be successfully deployed in real markets. The trained reinforcement learning agent is applied to trading the E-mini S&P 500 continuous futures contract. Our results in this study are preliminary and need further improvement.
金融交易已经被广泛分析了几十年,市场参与者和学者一直在寻找先进的方法来提高交易绩效。深度强化学习(DRL)是最近在多个领域取得重大成功的一种重新活跃的方法,但它在金融市场上仍然需要显示其优势。我们使用深度q网络(DQN)来设计期货合约的多空交易策略。状态空间由波动性标准化的每日收益组成,买入或卖出是强化学习行为,总奖励定义为我们行为的累积利润。我们的交易策略是在真实和模拟价格序列上进行训练和测试的,我们将结果与指数基准进行比较。我们分析了基于人工数据和实际价格序列相结合的训练如何成功地应用于实际市场。将训练好的强化学习代理应用于E-mini标准普尔500指数连续期货合约的交易。我们的研究结果是初步的,需要进一步完善。
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引用次数: 5
Corporate Lending in January-April 2021 2021年1月至4月的企业贷款
Pub Date : 2021-06-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3864037
S. Zubov
Once the Bank of Russia lifted regulatory easing related to the pandemic, the quality of corporate loan portfolios of Russian banks did not deteriorate: the average level of past due debt remains stable and at a low level; the growth rate of corporate lending corresponds to the 2020 values; the interest rates dynamic is moderately volatile. At the same time, the increase in banks’ risk appetite in the context of economic recovery requires increased attention of the regulator to the quality of the bank’s corporate portfolio and the adequacy of risk accounting. Accumulated credit risks can become a source of problems for the banking system in the event of destabilization of the economic situation in the wake of epidemiological, political and other factors.
在俄罗斯央行解除与疫情相关的监管宽松措施后,俄罗斯各银行企业贷款组合的质量并未恶化:逾期债务的平均水平保持稳定,处于较低水平;企业贷款增速与2020年数值相符;利率动态是适度波动的。与此同时,在经济复苏的背景下,银行风险偏好的增加要求监管机构更加关注银行公司投资组合的质量和风险会计的充分性。在流行病学、政治和其他因素导致经济形势不稳定的情况下,累积的信贷风险可能成为银行系统问题的根源。
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引用次数: 0
Disasters, Large Drawdowns, and Long-term Asset Management 灾难、大撤资和长期资产管理
Pub Date : 2021-06-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3864263
E. Jondeau, Alexandre Pauli
Long-term investors are often reluctant to invest in assets or strategies that can suffer from large drawdowns. A major challenge for such investors is to gain access to predictions of large drawdowns in order to precisely design strategies minimizing these drawdowns. In this paper, we describe a multivariate Markov-switching model framework that allows us to predict large drawdowns. We provide evidence that three regimes are necessary to capture the negative trends in expected returns that generate large drawdowns, and we correctly predict conditional drawdowns. In addition, investment strategies based on these models outperform model-free strategies based on the empirical distribution of drawdowns. These results hold within and out of the sample.
长期投资者通常不愿意投资可能遭受大幅缩水的资产或策略。这类投资者面临的一个主要挑战是获得对大幅回调的预测,以便精确地设计最小化这些回调的策略。在本文中,我们描述了一个多元马尔可夫切换模型框架,使我们能够预测大的下降。我们提供的证据表明,要捕捉产生大幅回撤的预期回报的负面趋势,需要三种制度,并且我们正确地预测了有条件的回撤。此外,基于这些模型的投资策略优于基于回撤经验分布的无模型投资策略。这些结果在样本内外都成立。
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引用次数: 0
Making Sense of Tesla's Run-up 解读特斯拉的崛起
Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3857786
Bradford Cornell
Tesla has run-up again. Between December 2, 2019 and April 30, 2021, the price of Tesla rose more than ten times creating over $600 billion in investor wealth. The analysis presented here implies that the 10x jump cannot be explained by the arrival of fundamental information regarding the macroeconomy, the auto industry, or company specific information related to Tesla as an electric vehicle manufacturer. The only feasible explanation for the run-up was a spreading narrative that Tesla is more than a car company. As stated by Mr. Musk, and echoed by Cathie Wood and others, Tesla is also going to be a renewable energy, artificial intelligence, ride sharing, and robotics company. Such narratives have the advantage that they can blossom and replicate with little in the way of capital expenditure and improvements in operations both of which tend to have a sluggish impact on value. They also benefit from a feedback effect by which spread of the narrative drives up the stock price and the rising stock price is then interpreted as evidence for the veracity of the narrative. Of course, the spread of a narrative and the feedback effect can operate in both directions. A narrative that arises, spreads, and drives stock prices to new highs can collapse just as quickly.
特斯拉再次崛起。在2019年12月2日至2021年4月30日期间,特斯拉的股价上涨了10倍以上,为投资者创造了超过6000亿美元的财富。本文的分析表明,10倍的涨幅不能用宏观经济、汽车行业或特斯拉作为电动汽车制造商的具体公司信息的基本信息来解释。唯一可行的解释是,人们普遍认为特斯拉不仅仅是一家汽车公司。正如马斯克所说,特斯拉也将成为一家可再生能源、人工智能、拼车和机器人公司。这种叙事的优势在于,它们可以在几乎不需要资本支出和运营改进的情况下蓬勃发展和复制,而资本支出和运营改进往往对价值产生缓慢的影响。他们还受益于一种反馈效应,通过这种反馈效应,叙事的传播推动了股价的上涨,而上涨的股价随后被解释为叙事真实性的证据。当然,叙述的传播和反馈效应是双向的。一种说法的出现、传播并推动股价创下新高,也可能以同样快的速度崩溃。
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引用次数: 1
Financial Development, Firm Growth, and Aggregate Productivity Divergence in Europe 欧洲的金融发展、企业增长和总生产率差异
Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3874683
Xiaomei Sui
Since the information and communications technology revolution, productivity growth in Southern European countries has been substantially lower than in developed European countries. I document that Spanish firms have lower productivity growth, lower intangible capital growth, and lower leverage than German firms. The disparity is larger among smaller firms. I build a model featuring endogenous firm productivity growth through innovation investment and size-dependent financial frictions to rationalize these findings. The model finds that financial frictions account for 11% of the aggregate productivity growth difference in the data. The model mechanism and predictions are also supported by evidence in other European countries.
自信息和通信技术革命以来,南欧国家的生产率增长大大低于欧洲发达国家。我证明西班牙公司的生产率增长较低,无形资本增长较低,杠杆率低于德国公司。小公司之间的差距更大。我建立了一个内生的企业生产率增长模型,通过创新投资和规模依赖的金融摩擦来合理化这些发现。该模型发现,金融摩擦占数据中总生产率增长差异的11%。该模型的机制和预测也得到了其他欧洲国家证据的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Review of Alvaro Santos, Chantal Thomas, and David Trubek (Eds.), World Trade and Investment Law Reimagined: A Progressive Agenda for an Inclusive Globalization 阿尔瓦罗·桑托斯、尚塔尔·托马斯和大卫·特鲁贝克主编,《世界贸易和投资法的重新构想:包容性全球化的进步议程》
Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.5070/LP61353768
Cedric Henet
Making notice of the growing discontent of those who have suffered at the hands of globalization through job loss, stagnant wages, and economic insecurity, the editors of World Trade and Investment Law Reimagined: A Progressive Agenda for an Inclusive Globalization invited twenty-one experts from ten different countries to present heterodox perspectives from economics and law to reconsider the political economy of global trade and investment.
《世界贸易和投资法重新构想:包容性全球化的进步议程》的编辑们注意到那些因全球化而遭受失业、工资停滞和经济不安全等苦难的人们日益增长的不满情绪,邀请了来自10个不同国家的21位专家,从经济学和法学的非正统观点出发,重新考虑全球贸易和投资的政治经济学。
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引用次数: 0
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International Political Economy: Investment & Finance eJournal
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