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Finance in Transition 转型中的金融
Pub Date : 2020-11-18 DOI: 10.1596/33075
D. Loorbach, D. Schoenmaker, Willem Schramade
Finance in Transition discusses the transition from traditional finance to transition finance.The current pattern of unsustainable economic development is supported by the global financial system, whose goal function is to create ever more financial value. Traditional finance is based on the concept of shareholder value. This paper develops new principles for a sustainable financial system. These guiding principles are: 1) from shareholder to integrated value, which combines financial, social and environmental value; 2) stewardship based on a direct link between financiers and companies; and 3) capital allocation based on long-term societal value.
转型中的金融论述了传统金融向转型金融的转变。当前不可持续的经济发展模式是由全球金融体系支撑的,其目标功能是创造更多的金融价值。传统金融是基于股东价值的概念。本文提出了可持续金融体系的新原则。这些指导原则是:1)从股东价值到综合价值,即综合财务价值、社会价值和环境价值;2)基于金融家和公司之间直接联系的管理;3)基于长期社会价值的资本配置。
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引用次数: 4
Capital Market Development Over the Long Run: The Portfolios of UK Life Assurers Over Two Centuries 资本市场的长期发展:两个世纪以来英国寿险公司的投资组合
Pub Date : 2020-11-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3728922
D. Bogle, Christopher Coyle, J. Turner
What shapes and drives capital market development over the long run? In this paper, using the asset portfolios of UK life assurers, we examine the role of regulation, historical contingency, and political reactions to events on the long-run development of the UK capital market. Government response to events such as war, hegemony-secured peace, and the wider macroeconomic environment was the ultimate determinant of major changes in asset allocation since 1800. Furthermore, when we compare the UK with the United States, we find that regulation played a limited role in shaping the asset portfolios of the UK life assurance industry.
从长远来看,是什么塑造和推动了资本市场的发展?在本文中,我们利用英国寿险公司的资产组合,考察了监管、历史偶然性和对事件的政治反应对英国资本市场长期发展的作用。政府对战争、霸权确保的和平以及更广泛的宏观经济环境等事件的反应,是1800年以来资产配置发生重大变化的最终决定因素。此外,当我们将英国与美国进行比较时,我们发现监管在塑造英国寿险行业的资产组合方面发挥了有限的作用。
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引用次数: 2
Expected Loss Model and the Cyclicality of Bank Credit Losses and Capital Ratios 预期损失模型与银行信贷损失和资本比率的周期性
Pub Date : 2020-11-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3728699
Mahmoud Fatouh, S. Giansante
We simulate the evolution of stylised loan portfolios to assess the impact of IFRS 9 and US-GAAP expected loss model (ECL) on the pro-cyclicality of realised losses and capital ratios of banks, relative to the incurred loss model of IAS 39. We focus on the interaction between the changes in loan loss provisions (LLPs) charges (flow channel) and stocks (stock channel) under ECL. Our results show that ECL model smooths the impact of credit losses on profits and capital resources, reducing the pro-cyclicality of capital and leverage ratios, especially under US GAAP. However, when GDP is highly volatile, the large differences in lifetime probabilities of defaults (PDs) between booms and bust cause sharp increases in LLPs in deep downturns, as seen for US banks during the COVID-19 crisis. Volatile GDP makes capital and leverage ratios more pro-cyclical and cause sharper falls in both ratios in deep downturns under US GAAP, compared to IAS 39. IFRS 9 ECL shows less sensitivity to lifetime PDs fluctuations due to the existence of loan stages, and hence reduces the pro-cyclicality of capital and leverage ratios even when GDP is highly volatile.
我们模拟了程式化贷款组合的演变,以评估IFRS 9和US-GAAP预期损失模型(ECL)相对于IAS 39的已发生损失模型,对已实现损失的顺周期性和银行资本比率的影响。我们重点关注ECL下贷款损失准备金(llp)费用(流动渠道)和库存(库存渠道)变化之间的相互作用。我们的研究结果表明,ECL模型平滑了信贷损失对利润和资本资源的影响,降低了资本和杠杆率的顺周期性,特别是在美国公认会计准则下。然而,当GDP高度波动时,繁荣与萧条之间终生违约概率(pd)的巨大差异导致llp在深度衰退中急剧增加,正如美国银行在COVID-19危机期间所看到的那样。与国际会计准则第39号相比,不稳定的GDP使资本和杠杆率更具顺周期性,并在美国公认会计准则下的深度衰退中导致这两个比率的急剧下降。由于贷款阶段的存在,IFRS 9 ECL对终身pd波动的敏感性较低,因此即使在GDP高度波动的情况下,也降低了资本和杠杆率的顺周期性。
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引用次数: 5
Maker-Taker Fees and Liquidity: The Role of Commission Structures 制造商收取费用与流动性:佣金结构的作用
Pub Date : 2020-11-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3726190
Michael Brolley, Katya Malinova
Equity exchanges typically subsidize liquidity providers through a rebate, and charge liquidity demanders a fee. We model the impact of this asymmetric fee structure in a setting where some traders pay fees directly to the exchange--a "maker-taker trader"--while others incur a flat fee per trade (e.g., through a broker commission). When the fraction of flat-fee traders is sufficiently small, only the total exchange fee per transaction has an economic impact. If sufficiently many investors face flat commissions, however, trading volume and investor welfare fall, with maker-taker traders assuming a de-facto market-maker role. Moreover, maker-taker traders earn higher average profits.
股票交易所通常通过回扣补贴流动性提供者,并向流动性需求者收取费用。我们对这种不对称费用结构的影响进行了建模,在这种情况下,一些交易者直接向交易所支付费用——一个“maker-taker交易者”——而另一些交易者每笔交易收取固定费用(例如,通过经纪人佣金)。当固定收费交易者的比例足够小时,只有每笔交易的总交易费用才会产生经济影响。然而,如果有足够多的投资者面临持平的佣金,交易量和投资者福利就会下降,做市接受者交易员实际上就会扮演做市商的角色。此外,抄底交易者的平均利润更高。
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引用次数: 2
Borrowing Fees and Expected Stock Returns 借款费用和预期股票收益
Pub Date : 2020-11-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3726227
Kaitlin Hendrix, Gavin Crabb
Borrowing fees set in the securities lending market contain reliable information about the cross section of short-term expected stock returns. Using securities lending data for 14 developed and emerging markets from 2011 to 2018, we find that stocks with high borrowing fees tend to underperform their peers over the short term. Moreover, stocks that remain expensive to borrow continue to underperform, but persistence of high borrowing fees is not systematically predictable. While the information in borrowing fees is fast decaying, it can still be efficiently incorporated into real-world equity portfolios.
证券借贷市场设定的借款费用包含有关股票短期预期收益截面的可靠信息。利用2011年至2018年14个发达市场和新兴市场的证券借贷数据,我们发现,高借贷费用的股票在短期内往往表现不佳。此外,那些借贷成本仍然很高的股票继续表现不佳,但持续的高借贷费用是无法系统预测的。虽然借款费用中的信息正在迅速衰减,但它仍然可以有效地纳入现实世界的股票投资组合。
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引用次数: 0
Building and Maintaining a Desired Exposure to Private Markets: Commitment Pacing, Cash Flow Modeling, and Beyond 建立和维持对私人市场的期望敞口:承诺节奏,现金流模型等
Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3775003
V. Jeet
Unlike public markets, private market holdings are a class of self-liquidating assets. Consequently, there is no passive strategy, e.g., buy-and-hold, to invest in private markets. All investments require an active management. In order to build and maintain a desired allocation to private markets one needs a commitment pacing plan that balances several objectives including stable exposure, performance, cash flow management, diversification over funds and time, and maintaining relationships with GPs.

A good commitment pacing plan is often seen as the lynchpin of a private capital program and can account for much of the dispersion in performance across LPs. We present a simulation-based framework to show the tradeoff between the steady-state NAV and the speed with which it can be built using a simple, yet powerful, commitment strategy and a popular cash flow model. Our framework also reveals the tradeoff between liquidity and risk-adjusted performance assuming the existence of private market premium in US buyout investments.
与公开市场不同,私人市场持有的资产是一种自我清算的资产。因此,没有被动的策略,例如,买入并持有,投资于私人市场。所有的投资都需要积极的管理。为了建立和维持对私募市场的理想配置,一个人需要一个承诺节奏计划,平衡几个目标,包括稳定的敞口、业绩、现金流管理、资金和时间的多样化,以及与普通合伙人的关系。一个好的承诺节奏计划通常被视为私人资本项目的关键,可以解释有限合伙人之间业绩差异的很大一部分原因。我们提出了一个基于模拟的框架,以显示稳态NAV和速度之间的权衡,它可以使用简单而强大的承诺策略和流行的现金流模型来构建。我们的框架还揭示了流动性和风险调整绩效之间的权衡,假设美国收购投资存在私人市场溢价。
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引用次数: 0
Stereotypes in Financial Literacy: Evidence from PISA 金融知识的刻板印象:来自PISA的证据
Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28065
L. Bottazzi, A. Lusardi
Abstract We examine gender differences in financial literacy among high school students in Italy using data from the 2012 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). Gender differences in financial literacy are large among the young in Italy. They are present in all regions and are particularly severe in the South and the Islands. Combining the rich PISA data with a variety of other indicators, we provide a thorough analysis of the potential determinants of the gender gap in financial literacy. We find that parental background, in particular the role of mothers, matters for the financial knowledge of girls. Moreover, we show that the social and cultural environment in which girls and boys live plays a crucial role in explaining gender differences. We also show that history matters: Medieval commercial hubs and the nuclear family structure created conditions favorable to the transformation of the role of women in society, and shaped gender differences in financial literacy as well. We discuss the changes that are needed to close the gap in financial knowledge among the young.
摘要:本文利用2012年国际学生评估项目(PISA)的数据,研究了意大利高中生金融素养的性别差异。在意大利的年轻人中,金融知识的性别差异很大。它们在所有区域都存在,在南部和各岛屿尤其严重。将丰富的PISA数据与各种其他指标相结合,我们对金融知识性别差异的潜在决定因素进行了全面分析。我们发现,父母的背景,尤其是母亲的角色,对女孩的财务知识很重要。此外,我们表明,女孩和男孩生活的社会和文化环境在解释性别差异方面起着至关重要的作用。我们还表明,历史的影响:中世纪的商业中心和核心家庭结构创造了有利于妇女在社会中角色转变的条件,并形成了金融知识的性别差异。我们讨论了缩小年轻人在金融知识方面的差距所需要的变化。
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引用次数: 53
Credit Risk Management Evaluation and Bank Management Effectiveness: 1995–2015 Dimensionality 信用风险管理评价与银行管理有效性:1995-2015
Pub Date : 2020-10-30 DOI: 10.47752/SJEF.310.178.188
J. Ugoani
Credit risk management is central to the success or failure of a banking institution because banks earn the greatest quantum of their interest income from interest on loans which represents a critical component of a bank’s profitability. Therefore, any carelessness with regard to credit risk management automatically results to creating huge nonperforming loans which often prepares the grounds for bank distress or failure. In the 1990s and specifically in 1995, 50 percent of 120 banks became technically distressed, as they were characterized by poor management and weak liquidity ratio. For example, in 1995, the ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans was about 33 percent compared to about 5 percent in 2015, and the average liquidity ratio of banks in 1995 was 0.49, against 58.18 in 2015. Also the loans, to deposit ratio in 1995 was 58.4 and 73.21 in 2015, while the number of banks with average liquidity ratio of less than 30 percent was 50 in 1995 against 1 in 2015. Distress persisted in the Nigerian banking system in the 1990s with dwindling profitability and the erosion of shareholders’ equity. In 1995, the adjusted shareholders funds was – N8791.1million against N3,240 billion in 2015, while the capital to total risk weighted asset ratio was about 67.18 percent in 1995 and only about 17.66 percent in 2015. In 1995, the ratio of nonperforming loans to shareholders’ funds was about 496 percent against about 13 percent in 2015. These major performance indicators showed that there was improved credit risk management and bank management effectiveness after 1995 until 2015. The expo-facto research design was employed for the study and the result showed strong positive relationship between credit risk evaluation management and bank management effectiveness. The study was not exhaustive, and further research could examine the relationship between regulatory efficiency and the performance of deposit money banks in Nigeria. The board of directors of banks should always take measures to avoid lending arrangements over and above the repayment capacity of borrowers to reduce the creation of nonperforming loans.
信用风险管理对银行机构的成败至关重要,因为银行的利息收入大部分来自贷款利息,而贷款利息是银行盈利能力的关键组成部分。因此,在信用风险管理方面的任何疏忽都会自动导致产生巨额不良贷款,这往往为银行陷入困境或倒闭奠定了基础。在1990年代,特别是1995年,120家银行中有50%的银行因经营不善和流动性比率低而陷入技术性困境。例如,1995年不良贷款占总贷款的比例约为33%,而2015年约为5%;1995年银行的平均流动性比率为0.49,而2015年为58.18。此外,1995年的存贷比为58.4,2015年为73.21,而平均流动性比率低于30%的银行数量在1995年为50家,2015年为1家。上世纪90年代,尼日利亚银行体系持续陷入困境,盈利能力不断下降,股东权益受到侵蚀。1995年,调整后的股东资金为- n87911亿,2015年为n3240亿,而资本与总风险加权资产比率在1995年约为67.18%,2015年仅为17.66%左右。1995年,不良贷款占股东资金的比例约为496%,而2015年约为13%。这些主要绩效指标表明,从1995年到2015年,信贷风险管理和银行管理有效性有所提高。本研究采用实证研究设计,结果显示信用风险评估管理与银行管理有效性之间存在较强的正相关关系。这项研究并不详尽,进一步的研究可以检验尼日利亚监管效率与存款银行绩效之间的关系。银行董事会应始终采取措施,避免超出借款人还款能力的贷款安排,以减少不良贷款的产生。
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引用次数: 1
Can the Federal Reserve Effectively Target Main Street? Evidence from the 1970s Recession 美联储能有效地瞄准普通民众吗?上世纪70年代经济衰退的证据
Pub Date : 2020-10-20 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.061
John Kandrac
Modern central bankers confront a challenge of providing economic stimulus even when the policy rate is constrained by a lower bound. This challenge has led to substantial innovation by policymakers and a proliferation of new policy tools. In this paper, I offer evidence on the efficacy of a new tool known as funding for lending, which provides banks with subsidized funding to make additional loans. I focus on a historical episode from the United States in which the Federal Reserve provided banks with steeply subsidized loans to promote the expansion of credit within their local communities. I show that the cheap funding succeeded in generating more lending by countering banks' excessive liquidity preference. The additional credit benefited the real economy. Local areas enjoyed higher rates of small business formation and more rapid employment growth. Finally, I show that the cost of the subsidy provided by the government was more than offset by the additional payroll taxes paid out of higher wages and salaries. These results suggest that funding for lending programs deserve consideration for the modern central banker's toolkit and demonstrate that certain unconventional tools can offer monetary policymakers the means to pursue more targeted objectives.
现代央行面临着一个挑战,即在政策利率受到下限限制的情况下,如何提供经济刺激。这一挑战促使政策制定者进行了重大创新,并催生了大量新的政策工具。在本文中,我提供了一种被称为贷款融资的新工具的有效性的证据,该工具为银行提供补贴资金以发放额外贷款。我关注的是美国的一个历史事件,当时美联储向银行提供了高额补贴贷款,以促进当地社区内的信贷扩张。我指出,廉价融资通过抑制银行过度的流动性偏好,成功地产生了更多贷款。新增信贷有利于实体经济。地方小企业形成率较高,就业增长较快。最后,我证明了政府提供的补贴成本被更高的工资和薪金所支付的额外工资税所抵消。这些结果表明,为贷款项目提供资金值得现代央行行长考虑,并表明某些非常规工具可以为货币政策制定者提供追求更有针对性目标的手段。
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引用次数: 5
Building Global Finance Back Better: Using the Coronavirus Pandemic as a Platform to Redesign the Global Financial Architecture 更好地重建全球金融:以冠状病毒大流行为平台重新设计全球金融架构
Pub Date : 2020-10-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3712999
Molly Scott Cato
While the global coronavirus pandemic has put great strain on public finances across the world, it is those countries with weaker national currencies that will feel this pressure more strongly. There is a very real risk of national defaults and of a mutually reinforcing downward spiral of reduced trade and competitive currency devaluations. To prevent the health crisis becoming a financial crisis we need a renegotiation of the global financial architecture to create new institutions that can uphold stability, equity and sustainability between the world’s economies. Next year marks 50 years since the ending of the Bretton Woods arrangements and provides an ideal platform for such a negotiation.
虽然全球冠状病毒大流行给世界各地的公共财政带来了巨大压力,但那些本国货币较弱的国家将更强烈地感受到这种压力。各国违约以及贸易减少和竞争性货币贬值相互加强的恶性循环的风险是非常现实的。为防止卫生危机演变为金融危机,我们需要重新谈判全球金融架构,以建立能够维护世界各经济体之间稳定、公平和可持续性的新机构。明年是布雷顿森林安排结束50周年,它为这种谈判提供了一个理想的平台。
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引用次数: 0
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International Political Economy: Investment & Finance eJournal
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