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PSN: Responses to Financial Crises (Development) (Topic)最新文献

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Did the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Help Counties Most Affected by the Great Recession? 《美国复苏与再投资法案》是否帮助了受大衰退影响最严重的县?
Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3435919
Mario J. Crucini, Nam T. Vu
One of the statements of purpose of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) was "to assist those most impacted by the recession." To consider this facet, the ARRA is assessed along this dimension using the concept of risk-sharing. We estimate a trend-stationary autoregressive model of county-level wage income dynamics with each county subject to an idiosyncratic shock and a common shock (with county-specific factor loading). These shocks are used to estimate a redistributive fiscal policy function. The fiscal-offset is 33.6% for the common shock and 6.64% for the county-specific shock. Both of these fiscal policy parameters are statistically and economically significant.
《美国复苏与再投资法案》(American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, ARRA)的宗旨之一是“帮助那些受经济衰退影响最大的人”。为了考虑这方面,使用风险分担的概念沿着这个维度评估ARRA。我们估计了一个趋势平稳的县级工资收入动态自回归模型,每个县都受到一个特殊冲击和一个共同冲击(具有特定县的因素负载)。这些冲击被用来估计再分配财政政策的功能。一般冲击的财政补偿为33.6%,特定国家冲击的财政补偿为6.64%。这两个财政政策参数在统计和经济上都具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 2
Greece: Still in the Woods 希腊:还在森林里
Pub Date : 2017-11-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3084094
G. C. Bitros
Greece went bankrupt in 2009 presumably because it run an exorbitant public deficit and had accumulated a huge public debt. However, in reality Greece went bankrupt because its model of social and economic organization has been surpassed by European and international developments. To avoid this tragedy, Greece had been given by EEC initially and EU later on enough time to prepare before integrating into the Eurozone. From the treaties it signed Greece ought to have introduced structural transformations to render its economy consistent with the four European freedoms. Instead, time and again successive governments procrastinated and employed all sorts of gimmicks to protect the model of state socialism they had erected on the pillars of the 1975 Constitution. But time and circumstances caught up with their policies and now the cost for confronting the challenges that lie ahead has become enormous. Hopefully, sooner than later, those responsible for the bankruptcy of Greece and the hardships that have befell on the Greek people will discover that their self-interest coincides with that of the country and they will take the lead in the replacement of the present hard core statist model with one based on free and open markets and outward looking entrepreneurship.
希腊在2009年破产,大概是因为它的公共赤字过高,而且积累了巨额的公共债务。然而,实际上希腊破产了,因为它的社会和经济组织模式已经被欧洲和国际发展所超越。为了避免这一悲剧,欧共体最初和欧盟后来都给了希腊足够的时间来准备加入欧元区。根据它签署的条约,希腊应该引入结构转型,使其经济符合欧洲四大自由。相反,历届政府一次又一次地拖延,并使用各种噱头来保护他们建立在1975年宪法支柱上的国家社会主义模式。但时间和环境赶上了他们的政策,现在应对未来挑战的成本已经变得巨大。希望那些对希腊的破产和希腊人民的苦难负有责任的人迟早会发现,他们的利益与国家的利益是一致的,他们将带头以自由开放的市场和外向的企业家精神为基础,取代目前的核心中央集权模式。
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引用次数: 0
The Middle Class Is Getting Out of the Crisis, but Has Apprehensions About the Future 中产阶级正在走出危机,但对未来感到担忧
Pub Date : 2017-10-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3057298
E. Avraamova, D. Loginov
The social well-being of the Russian middle class in terms of the dynamics of its financial standing and opportunities of successful self-actualization has somewhat improved. According to representatives of the middle class, the prospects of self-actualization depend primarily on a high level of education, rather than an opportunity to start one’s own business or find a new job. However, more than a half of the respondents from the core and close periphery of the middle class fear the future.
俄罗斯中产阶级的社会福利在其财务状况和成功实现自我的机会方面有所改善。根据中产阶级代表的说法,自我实现的前景主要取决于高水平的教育,而不是有机会创业或找到一份新工作。然而,来自中产阶级核心和边缘的一半以上的受访者对未来感到担忧。
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引用次数: 0
The Employment Effects of Mexican Repatriations: Evidence from the 1930&Apos;S 墨西哥遣返对就业的影响:来自20世纪30年代的证据
Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/w23885
Jongkwan Lee, G. Peri, Vasil Yasenov
During the period 1929-34 a campaign forcing the repatriation of Mexicans and Mexican Americans was carried out in the U.S. by states and local authorities. The claim of politicians at the time was that repatriations would reduce local unemployment and give jobs to Americans, alleviating the local effects of the Great Depression. This paper uses this episode to examine the consequences of Mexican repatriations on labor market outcomes of natives. Analyzing 893 cities using full count decennial Census data in the period 1930-40, we find that repatriation of Mexicans was associated with small decreases in native employment and increases in native unemployment. These results are robust to the inclusion of many controls. We then apply an instrumental variable strategy based on the differential size of Mexican communities in 1930, as well as a matching method, to estimate a causal "average treatment effect." Confirming the OLS regressions, the causal estimates do not support the claim that repatriations had any expansionary effects on native employment, but suggest instead that they had no effect on, or possibly depressed, their employment and wages.
在1929年至1934年期间,美国各州和地方当局开展了一场强迫墨西哥人和墨西哥裔美国人遣返的运动。当时的政治家们声称,遣返将减少当地的失业率,为美国人提供就业机会,减轻大萧条对当地的影响。本文利用这一事件来考察墨西哥遣返对当地人劳动力市场结果的影响。我们使用1930- 1940年期间的十年一次的人口普查数据对893个城市进行了分析,发现墨西哥人的遣返与当地就业的小幅下降和当地失业率的上升有关。这些结果对于包括许多控制是稳健的。然后,我们应用基于1930年墨西哥社区大小差异的工具变量策略,以及匹配方法,来估计因果“平均治疗效果”。因果估计证实了OLS回归,并不支持遣返对本国就业有任何扩张性影响的说法,而是表明它们对本国就业和工资没有影响,或可能降低就业和工资。
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引用次数: 14
Culprits or Bystanders? Offshore Jurisdictions and the Global Financial Crisis 罪犯还是旁观者?离岸司法管辖区与全球金融危机
Pub Date : 2017-06-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2870744
Daniel Haberly, D. Wójcik
Questions have been raised regarding the role of low-tax offshore jurisdictions in the global financial crisis, based largely on evidence that many problematic asset-backed securities were issued from or listed in the Cayman Islands, Jersey, Ireland, and other ‘offshore’ sites. However, there has not been a systematic investigation of the offshore geography of crisis-implicated securitization. Here we fill this gap by constructing the first comprehensive jurisdictional map of the largest pre-crisis Asset-Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) programs, and examining the rationale for and impacts of this geography in detail. We show that offshore jurisdictions were disproportionately involved in producing the most unstable ABCP classes. However, this is difficult to explain in terms of the traditional role of offshore banking centers as sites for direct avoidance of onshore regulation and transparency. Rather, we propose a Minskian model of pre-crisis offshore ABCP production, wherein these jurisdictions specialized in alleviating incidental institutional frictions (e.g. double taxation) hindering onshore financial innovation. In this context, they could sometimes be legitimately described as improving the institutional ‘efficiency’ of financial markets; however, by facilitating the endogenous evolutionary instability of these markets, this apparently innocuous service had profoundly negative effects. This normative disconnect poses a conundrum for offshore reform.
人们对低税离岸司法管辖区在全球金融危机中的作用提出了质疑,这主要是基于有证据表明,许多有问题的资产支持证券是从开曼群岛、泽西岛、爱尔兰和其他“离岸”地点发行或上市的。然而,目前还没有对危机证券化的离岸地理进行系统的研究。在这里,我们通过构建危机前最大的资产支持商业票据(ABCP)计划的第一个综合管辖地图来填补这一空白,并详细研究了这一地理位置的基本原理和影响。我们表明,离岸司法管辖区不成比例地参与生产最不稳定的资产支持商业票据类别。然而,从离岸银行中心作为直接逃避在岸监管和透明度的场所的传统角色来看,这很难解释。相反,我们提出了危机前离岸资产支持商业票据生产的明斯基模型,其中这些司法管辖区专门致力于减轻阻碍在岸金融创新的附带制度摩擦(例如双重征税)。在这种背景下,它们有时可以被合理地描述为提高金融市场的制度“效率”;然而,通过促进这些市场的内生进化不稳定性,这种看似无害的服务产生了深刻的负面影响。这种规范上的脱节给离岸改革带来了难题。
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引用次数: 20
User's Perceptions of Motivations and Risks in Crowdfunding with Financial Returns 用户对具有财务回报的众筹动机和风险的认知
Pub Date : 2017-01-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2968912
N. Daskalakis, Wei Yue
Using a unique database of survey respondents on crowdinvesting, we explore users’ perceptions of motivations and risks of crowdfunding with financial returns (equity crowdfunding and p2p lending). Specifically, our sample consists of respondents on a crowdinvesting survey from Germany, Spain and Poland, and we analyze the relative importance of a set of risks and motivations when using crowdinvesting. Our results show that the main profile of a crowdfunding investor is a young male with high education. We also find that respondents seem to be motivated more by higher returns in p2p lending and by interest and excitement in equity crowdfunding. Last, we also find interesting inter-country analyses regarding the willingness to invest and how this is affected by different risks that respondents face.
使用独特的众筹调查受访者数据库,我们探讨了用户对具有财务回报的众筹(股权众筹和p2p借贷)的动机和风险的看法。具体来说,我们的样本由来自德国、西班牙和波兰的众筹调查的受访者组成,我们分析了在使用众筹时一系列风险和动机的相对重要性。我们的研究结果表明,众筹投资者的主要特征是高学历的年轻男性。我们还发现,受访者似乎更受p2p借贷的高回报和股权众筹的兴趣和兴奋所激励。最后,我们还发现了关于投资意愿的有趣的国家间分析,以及受访者面临的不同风险对投资意愿的影响。
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引用次数: 31
Adapting to Changing Prices before and after the Crisis: The Case of US Commercial Banks 危机前后对价格变化的适应:以美国商业银行为例
Pub Date : 2016-10-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2859850
L. Spierdijk, Sherrill Shaffer, Timothy J. Considine
For banks, cost management has gained importance in the current environment of low interest rates. In this environment, banks' revenues from interest are under pressure, leading to renewed interest in the substitutability of banks' input factors. Substitution elasticities typically depend on two factors: cost technology and economic conditions (relative input prices or cost shares). Technological shifts and policy changes are therefore expected to affect firms' elasticities of substitution. This study estimates U.S. commercial banks' substitution elasticities during the 2000-2013 period. It analyzes the total effects of the technological shifts and policy changes on banks' substitution elasticities during that period. An endogenous-break test divides the sample into a precrisis period (2000-2008) and a crisis period (2009-2013). During the pre-crisis period, banks' inputs are inelastic substitutes. After the onset of the crisis, especially the long-run substitutability of most input factors decreases to even lower levels due to changes in both cost technology and economic conditions. At the same time, banks' response to input price changes becomes more sluggish. The results indicate that the availability of substitutes is substantially worse during the (post-) crisis period, which limits banks' possibilities for cost management.
对于银行来说,成本管理在当前低利率环境下变得越来越重要。在这种环境下,银行的利息收入受到压力,导致人们重新关注银行投入要素的可替代性。替代弹性通常取决于两个因素:成本、技术和经济条件(相对投入价格或成本份额)。因此,预计技术转变和政策变化将影响企业的替代弹性。本研究估计了2000-2013年期间美国商业银行的替代弹性。分析了这一时期技术变革和政策变化对银行替代弹性的总体影响。内生断裂检验将样本分为危机前时期(2000-2008年)和危机时期(2009-2013年)。在危机前,银行的投入是无弹性的替代品。特别是在危机发生后,由于成本、技术和经济条件的变化,大多数投入要素的长期可替代性下降到更低的水平。与此同时,银行对投入价格变化的反应变得更加迟缓。结果表明,在(后)危机时期,替代品的可获得性明显较差,这限制了银行进行成本管理的可能性。
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引用次数: 0
Nothing Left to Lose? Changes Experienced by Detroit Low- and Moderate-Income Households During the Great Recession 没什么好失去的?大衰退期间底特律中低收入家庭经历的变化
Pub Date : 2016-09-08 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2836589
Michael S. Barr, Daniel Schaffa
The Financial Crisis and ensuing Great Recession caused enormous hardship for households. Using original datasets, we examine the effects of the recession on a population many might think had nothing left to lose: low- and moderate-income households in the Detroit metropolitan area. We find that the Great Recession in fact imposed significant costs on these households, reducing employment and assets and increasing hardships in a wide variety of ways. Our findings suggest the need for more robust safety net policies and financial services that can help cushion the blows from sharp reductions in incomes and assets.
金融危机和随之而来的大衰退给家庭带来了巨大的困难。利用原始数据集,我们研究了经济衰退对许多人可能认为没有什么可失去的人群的影响:底特律大都市区的低收入和中等收入家庭。我们发现,大衰退实际上给这些家庭带来了巨大的成本,减少了就业和资产,并以各种方式增加了困难。我们的研究结果表明,需要更强有力的安全网政策和金融服务,以帮助缓冲收入和资产急剧减少带来的冲击。
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引用次数: 1
On the Distribution of the Welfare Losses of Large Recessions 论大衰退中福利损失的分配
Pub Date : 2016-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/w22458
Dirk Krueger, K. Mitman, F. Perri
How big are the welfare losses from severe economic downturns, such as the U.S. Great Recession? How are those losses distributed across the population? In this paper we answer these questions using a canonical business cycle model featuring household income and wealth heterogeneity that matches micro data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). We document how these losses are distributed across households and how they are affected by social insurance policies. We find that the welfare cost of losing one's job in a severe recession ranges from 2% of lifetime consumption for the wealthiest households to 5% for low-wealth households. The cost increases to approximately 8% for low-wealth households if unemployment insurance benefits are cut from 50% to 10%. The fact that welfare losses fall with wealth, and that in our model (as in the data) a large fraction of households has very low wealth, implies that the impact of a severe recession, once aggregated across all households, is very significant (2.2% of lifetime consumption). We finally show that a more generous unemployment insurance system unequivocally helps low-wealth job losers, but hurts households that keep their job, even in a version of the model in which output is partly demand determined, and therefore unemployment insurance stabilizes aggregate demand and output.
严重的经济衰退,如美国经济大衰退,造成的福利损失有多大?这些损失是如何在人群中分布的?在本文中,我们使用一个典型的商业周期模型来回答这些问题,该模型具有家庭收入和财富异质性,该模型与收入动态面板研究(PSID)的微观数据相匹配。我们记录了这些损失是如何在各个家庭中分布的,以及它们是如何受到社会保险政策的影响的。我们发现,在严重的经济衰退中,失业的福利成本占最富裕家庭一生消费的2%,而低收入家庭的福利成本占5%。如果失业保险福利从50%削减到10%,低收入家庭的成本将增加到8%左右。福利损失随着财富的增加而减少,而且在我们的模型中(和数据中一样),很大一部分家庭的财富都很低,这意味着严重衰退的影响,一旦集中到所有家庭,是非常显著的(占一生消费的2.2%)。我们最终表明,一个更慷慨的失业保险制度无疑会帮助低财富的失业者,但会伤害那些保住工作的家庭,即使在产出部分由需求决定的模型版本中也是如此,因此失业保险稳定了总需求和产出。
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引用次数: 41
The 2015 Stock Panic of China 2015年中国股市恐慌
Pub Date : 2016-06-14 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2795543
J. Qian
This essay documents the boom and bust of the Chinese A-share bubble in 2014-2015. The short-lived bull market started with the expectation of the state sector reform, capital market opening-up, and monetary easing. It was then fueled and heated by the flooding of new investors and the runaway leverage. The regulatory bodies failed to check the leverage in the early stage. Forceful crackdown on leverage, which came too late, finally tipped the market toward a violent crash. The 10% daily trading limits and the voluntary suspension of trading exacerbated the illiquidity problem during the crash. To make a more robust financial system, China has to strengthen regulation and supervision of financial activities. For this purpose, China should consider re-unifying the currently segmented regulatory and supervisory bodies into a new powerful authority above the ministerial level.
本文记录了2014-2015年中国a股泡沫的兴衰。短暂的牛市始于对国有部门改革、资本市场开放和货币宽松的预期。然后,新投资者的涌入和失控的杠杆又助长和激化了市场。监管机构未能在早期控制杠杆。对杠杆的强力打击来得太晚,最终将市场推向了猛烈的崩盘。10%的每日交易限额和自愿暂停交易加剧了崩盘期间的流动性不足问题。为了建立一个更加健全的金融体系,中国必须加强对金融活动的监管。为此,中国应考虑将目前分散的监管和监督机构重新统一为一个部级以上的新的强大机构。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
PSN: Responses to Financial Crises (Development) (Topic)
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