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Talking One's Way Out of a Debt Crisis 谈论摆脱债务危机的方法
Pub Date : 2016-04-28 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2772658
L. Buchheit, G. Gulati
The policy of Euro-area officialdom in the period 2010-2011 was to avoid, at all costs, a default and restructuring of the sovereign debt of a member of the monetary union. This policy was motivated principally, but not exclusively, by a fear that the international capital markets, if forcibly reminded of the precarious position of overindebted, growth-challenged members of a monetary union, might recoil generally from lending to European sovereigns. In short, they feared contagion.The only alternative to permitting a debt restructuring, of course, was an official sector bailout. The afflicted countries -- Greece (until 2012), Portugal, Ireland and Cyprus -- received loans from official sector sources sufficient to allow them to repay in full their maturing bond indebtedness. Whenever and wherever the crisis erupted, contagion was thus held in check by the blunt technique of smothering the outbreak -- in money.The proponents of this policy argued at the time, and argue now, that many European sovereigns in 2010 were far too fragile to endure a bout of market contagion. They argued that an acute crisis needed to be averted in order to buy time for the implementation of a gradual but more durable remedy. Had the intervening eight years been used to reduce the debt vulnerabilities of the peripheral (and even some core) states, this argument would now be powerful, indeed invincible.Unfortunately, the opposite happened. Average state indebtedness in Europe today is about one-third larger than it was in 2008. Both the member states and the market saw the reprieve as spreading a reliable official sector safety net under their exposure. So they kept on borrowing and lending. Only the zero interest rate policies of the world’s major central banks during this period have kept debt servicing costs at tolerable levels.
2010-2011年期间,欧元区官方的政策是不惜一切代价避免货币联盟成员国的主权债务违约和重组。这一政策的动机主要是(但并非完全是)一种担忧,即如果强行提醒国际资本市场注意某个货币联盟中过度负债、增长受到挑战的成员国的危险处境,它们可能普遍不愿向欧洲主权国家放贷。简而言之,他们担心危机会蔓延。当然,允许债务重组的唯一替代方案是对官方部门进行纾困。希腊(直到2012年)、葡萄牙、爱尔兰和塞浦路斯等受困国家从官方部门获得的贷款,足以让它们全额偿还到期的债券债务。因此,无论何时何地,危机爆发时,通过遏制危机爆发的生硬手段——货币——就能控制住危机的蔓延。这一政策的支持者当时和现在都认为,2010年的许多欧洲主权国家太脆弱,无法承受市场的传染。他们认为,必须避免一场严重的危机,以便为实施渐进但更持久的补救措施争取时间。如果在这期间的8年被用来降低外围国家(甚至一些核心国家)的债务脆弱性,这一论点现在将是强有力的,实际上是不可战胜的。不幸的是,情况正好相反。如今欧洲的平均国家债务比2008年高出约三分之一。欧盟成员国和市场都认为,这一暂缓令为它们的风险敞口扩大了一张可靠的官方部门安全网。所以他们不停地借贷。在此期间,只有世界主要央行的零利率政策才使偿债成本保持在可承受的水平。
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引用次数: 0
The Lender of Last Resort in the Eurozone 欧元区的最后贷款人
Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.54648/cola2016034
Armin Steinbach
Liquidity supply by a Lender of Last Resort (LOLR) can be pivotal for both the conduct of monetary policy and safeguard of financial stability. During the financial crisis, the importance of liquidity provision significantly increased at both the macro-level – through the European Central Bank – and also for individual credit institutions in the guise of Emergency Liquidity Assistance through the National Central Banks (NCBs). This article examines the legal framework in which the ECB and the NCBs carry out their respective roles as LOLR. The question of who holds competence for liquidity supply is discussed in light of the LOLR functions pertaining to financial stability and monetary policy, as are the availability of effective measures and the legal prerequisites and limitations, particularly with regard to the prohibition of monetary State financing, the imperative of price stability and State aid rules. In view of recent reforms of banking supervision in the eurozone, the question of centralizing Emergency Liquidity Assistance within the ECB also arises.
最后贷款人的流动性供给对于货币政策的实施和金融稳定的维护都是至关重要的。在金融危机期间,在宏观层面(通过欧洲中央银行)以及在通过各国中央银行提供紧急流动性援助的幌子下为个人信贷机构提供流动性的重要性大大增加。本文考察了欧洲央行和国家银行作为法定监管机构发挥各自作用的法律框架。谁有能力提供流动资金的问题是根据与金融稳定和货币政策有关的法律法规的职能,以及有效措施的可得性和法律上的先决条件和限制,特别是关于禁止国家货币融资、价格稳定的必要性和国家援助规则进行讨论的。鉴于欧元区最近对银行监管的改革,在欧洲央行内部集中实施紧急流动性援助的问题也出现了。
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引用次数: 31
Asset Bubbles and Bailouts 资产泡沫和救助
Pub Date : 2015-09-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3167835
T. Hirano, Masaru Inaba, Noriyuki Yanagawa
As long as bubble size is relatively small, bubbles increase production level, but once the size becomes too large, then bubbles reduce it. Given this non-monotonic relationship, this paper investigates the relationship between bubbles and government bailouts. It shows that bailouts for bursting bubbles may positively influence ex ante production efficiency and relax the existence condition of stochastic bubbles. The level of bailouts has a non-monotonic relationship with production efficiency and a “partial bailout” policy achieves production efficiency. Moreover, it examines the welfare effects of bailout policies rigorously and shows that even non-risky bubbles may be undesirable for taxpayers.
只要气泡尺寸相对较小,气泡就会增加生产水平,但一旦尺寸变得太大,气泡就会降低它。鉴于这种非单调关系,本文研究了泡沫与政府救助之间的关系。结果表明,对泡沫破裂的救助会对事前生产效率产生正向影响,并使随机泡沫的存在条件得到放松。救助水平与生产效率存在非单调关系,“部分救助”政策实现了生产效率。此外,它还严格考察了救助政策对福利的影响,并表明即使是无风险的泡沫,对纳税人来说也可能是不可取的。
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引用次数: 51
Enhancing Financial Stability in Developing Asia 加强亚洲发展中国家金融稳定
Pub Date : 2015-09-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2658755
A. Posen, Nicolas. Véron
Given no generally accepted framework for financial stability, policymakers in developing Asia need to manage, not avoid, financial deepening. This paper supports Asian policymakers' judgment through analysis of the recent events in the United States and Europe and of earlier crisis episodes, including Asia during the 1990s. There is no simple linear relationship between financial repression and stability—financial repression not only has costs but, so doing can itself undermine stability. Bank-centric financial systems are not inherently safer than systems that include meaningful roles for securities and capital markets. Domestic financial systems should be steadily diversified in terms of both number of domestic competitors and types of savings and lending instruments available (and thus probably types of institutions). Financial repression should be focused on regulating the activities of financial intermediaries, not on compressing interest rates for domestic savers. Cross-border lending should primarily involve creation of multinational banks' subsidiaries in the local economy—and local currency lending and bond issuance should be encouraged. Macroprudential tools can be useful, and, if anything, are more effective in less open or less financially deep economies than in more advanced financial centers.
由于没有普遍接受的金融稳定框架,亚洲发展中国家的政策制定者需要管理(而不是避免)金融深化。本文通过分析美国和欧洲最近发生的事件,以及包括上世纪90年代亚洲在内的早期危机事件,支持亚洲决策者的判断。金融抑制和稳定之间不存在简单的线性关系——金融抑制不仅有成本,而且这样做本身也会破坏稳定。以银行为中心的金融体系本身并不比证券和资本市场发挥重要作用的体系更安全。国内金融系统应在国内竞争者的数量和可用的储蓄和贷款工具的类型(因此可能是机构的类型)方面稳步实现多样化。金融抑制应侧重于监管金融中介机构的活动,而不是压缩国内储户的利率。跨境贷款应主要涉及在当地经济中建立跨国银行的子公司,并应鼓励当地货币贷款和债券发行。宏观审慎工具可能是有用的,而且,如果有的话,在不太开放或金融深度较低的经济体中,比在更发达的金融中心更有效。
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引用次数: 7
The Real Reasons Why the Germans are Wrong About Greece 德国人对希腊看法错误的真正原因
Pub Date : 2015-08-06 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2640466
F. Emmert
The paper supports the 2015 bailout for Greece in the amount of some 86 billion Euro but it also argues that all international lenders should take a haircut of some 33% to bring Greek debt to a more sustainable level and that the focus for the future should be more on rebuilding the Greek economy and less on austerity.
该文件支持2015年向希腊提供约860亿欧元的救助,但它也认为,所有国际贷款机构都应该对希腊进行约33%的减值,以使希腊债务达到更可持续的水平,未来的重点应该更多地放在重建希腊经济上,而不是紧缩政策上。
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引用次数: 0
Authority after Emergency Rule 紧急状态后的权力
Pub Date : 2015-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/1468-2230.12130
Jonathan White
In the context of economic crisis, Europe has witnessed a spate of extraordinary political measures pressed by executive discretion. This article examines what emergency rule of this kind implies for the possibility of normal rule thereafter. Political decision-makers face the challenge of drawing a line under the crisis so that the unconventional measures used to handle it do not compromise the polity's norms in lasting fashion. Based on an analysis of the preconditions for plausibly making such an act of separation, I suggest the principal resources for doing so in the EU case are missing. Emergency rule will tend to blend in with normal rule, to the detriment of the political order's legitimate authority. A more dubiously grounded ‘descriptive’ authority may conversely be enhanced by emergency rule, as may compliance for instrumental motivations, producing a polity that is stable even if weakly legitimate.
在经济危机的背景下,欧洲在行政裁量权的压力下,采取了一系列非同寻常的政治措施。本文探讨了这种紧急规则对以后正常规则的可能性意味着什么。政治决策者面临的挑战是为这场危机划清界限,使用于应对危机的非常规措施不会长久地损害政体的规范。基于对合理采取这种分离行动的先决条件的分析,我认为,在欧盟的情况下,缺乏这样做的主要资源。紧急状态将倾向于与正常规则相融合,从而损害政治秩序的合法权威。相反,一种更可疑的“描述性”权威可能会通过紧急规则得到加强,对工具动机的服从也可能得到加强,从而产生一种稳定的政体,即使它的合法性很弱。
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引用次数: 53
Fiscal Austerity versus Growth in Croatia 克罗地亚的财政紧缩与经济增长
Pub Date : 2015-04-01 DOI: 10.5709/CE.1897-9254.162
M. Škare, Romina Pržiklas Družeta
The role of fiscal austerity has been questioned for centuries, but a rapidly increasing deficit along with the financial crisis in 2007/2008 influenced a renewed debate on the economics of austerity. This paper analyzes the role of austerity versus the role of economic growth. It also attempts to highlight the role of the theoretical context of austerity policy and the economic history lesson learned during the transition from the Bretton Woods model to Washington’s consensus. Despite numerous studies and polarized debate, no consensus on the implementation of fiscal austerity has been achieved because this complex subject has not been the subject of a sufficient methodological exploration. Emphasis should be placed on defining the methodology of austerity and gathering statistical data to influence the implementation of social transfer policies. In addition, it is necessary not only to take a hybrid approach to fiscal and monetary policy but also to adopt economic laws and quantitative economic relationships. The benchmarking country used in this paper is Croatia. The outcome of this research can serve as the basis for future decision-making and research.
几个世纪以来,财政紧缩的作用一直受到质疑,但2007/2008年金融危机导致赤字迅速增加,重新引发了关于紧缩经济学的辩论。本文分析了紧缩的作用与经济增长的作用。它还试图强调紧缩政策理论背景的作用,以及从布雷顿森林模式向华盛顿共识过渡期间汲取的经济史教训。尽管有大量的研究和两极分化的辩论,但由于这一复杂的主题尚未进行足够的方法探索,因此没有就财政紧缩的实施达成共识。应强调确定紧缩的方法和收集统计数据,以影响社会转移政策的执行。此外,不仅需要采取财政和货币政策的混合方法,而且需要采用经济规律和数量经济关系。本文使用的基准国家是克罗地亚。本研究结果可作为今后决策和研究的依据。
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引用次数: 1
Basel III: Comrade or Contender for Islamic Banking Intuitions - A Case of Pakistan 巴塞尔协议III:伊斯兰银行机构的同志或竞争者——以巴基斯坦为例
Pub Date : 2014-08-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2486315
Naeem Hayat, Z. Ali
Financial crisis of 2007 greatly impacted the global banking system. In the main time the rise of Islamic banking system comes as a substitute to the conventional banking system at the global level. Basel III accord come in being in 2011 put forward many regularity and supervisory frame work to establish the viability and credibility of world banking systems. The Islamic banking system increasing its presence in at the global level with assets of US$1.7 Trillion with annual growth rate of 17.6% up till the end of 2013. Five Islamic banking institutions are working in Pakistan as torch bearer. These five are pure Islamic banking companies in Pakistan not any of them is a subsidiary of the convention banks working in Pakistan. Researcher will look into five years business of these Islamic banking companies that how they react to the Basel III regulatory requirement and the role of central bank in Pakistan i.e. State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in implementation of regulatory and statutory framework of Islamic banking system in Pakistan.Results of this studies reviles that the IBIs working in Pakistan are in better position in implementation of Basel III requirement like quality of capital, leverage ratio and risk management issues. We can consider it as the requirement of IBIs to work in this way as required by the shariah not by the Basel III regulation. IBIs need some indigenous system of regulation that suits to its need. Basel III not a suitable regulatory framework for the IBIs as it was framed for the conventional banking institutions.
2007年的金融危机极大地冲击了全球银行体系。在全球范围内,伊斯兰银行体系的兴起主要是作为传统银行体系的替代品。巴塞尔协议III于2011年出台,提出了许多规则和监管框架,以建立世界银行体系的可行性和可信度。截至2013年底,伊斯兰银行系统在全球范围内的资产规模已达1.7万亿美元,年增长率为17.6%。五家伊斯兰银行机构在巴基斯坦充当火炬手。这五家是巴基斯坦的纯伊斯兰银行公司,没有一家是巴基斯坦传统银行的子公司。研究人员将研究这些伊斯兰银行公司的五年业务,了解他们如何对巴塞尔协议III监管要求做出反应,以及巴基斯坦中央银行,即巴基斯坦国家银行(SBP)在实施巴基斯坦伊斯兰银行体系监管和法定框架方面的作用。本研究的结果表明,在巴基斯坦工作的ibi在执行巴塞尔协议III要求方面处于更好的地位,如资本质量,杠杆率和风险管理问题。我们可以将其视为要求ibi按照伊斯兰教法而不是巴塞尔III规定的方式工作。ibi需要一些适合其需求的本土监管体系。巴塞尔协议III不是一个适合ibi的监管框架,因为它是为传统银行机构制定的。
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引用次数: 1
Nigeria Confronts Post-Crisis Global Economic Realities 尼日利亚面对危机后的全球经济现实
Pub Date : 2014-05-29 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2443336
Ayo Teriba
Nigeria has long been trying to learn how best to manage boom-bust cycles in global commodity prices, adopting an oil-price benchmark for annual budgets while saving revenues above the benchmark in an excess crude account in the half decade before the 2008/2009 global crisis. The crisis and its aftermath now dictate that the country needs additional lessons on how best to manage surge-shortage cycles in global liquidity. Managing frequent external trade shocks is now only a part of the story, managing frequent external financial shocks, particularly with the intricate interactions between the two, is the other part.
长期以来,尼日利亚一直在努力学习如何最好地管理全球大宗商品价格的盛落周期,在2008/2009年全球危机爆发前的5年里,尼日利亚在年度预算中采用油价基准,同时在超额原油账户中节省高于基准的收入。这场危机及其后果现在表明,该国需要在如何最好地管理全球流动性激增-短缺周期方面吸取更多教训。管理频繁的外部贸易冲击现在只是一个方面,管理频繁的外部金融冲击,特别是两者之间错综复杂的相互作用,是另一个方面。
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引用次数: 0
One for All and All for One: The Global Financial Crisis and the European Integration Project 我为人人,人人为我:全球金融危机与欧洲一体化项目
Pub Date : 2011-08-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1923830
Patrick. Leblond
When the global financial crisis hit the shores of Europe, after crossing the Atlantic, the eurozone was considered a safe haven (Jones, 2009; Wyplosz, 2009). Although there were concerns about how the euro would face up to its first major crisis (Feldstein, 2008; Munchau, 2009), the European Union’s (EU’s) single currency was generally viewed as a protective force against the financial storm shaking the world. For instance, The Economist concluded that ‘the Euro has proved a haven in the economic crisis — so much so that no country seriously wants to leave it and plenty want to join’ (The Economist, 2009). Such a view was also shared by sovereign bond investors since, according to Attinasi et al. (2010a, p. 35), there was a ‘flight to safety’ towards the eurozone between September 2008 (when Lehman Brothers failed) and March 2009 (when financial markets began to stabilize). During that period, most eurozone countries saw their sovereign bond yields decline.
当全球金融危机越过大西洋袭击欧洲海岸时,欧元区被认为是一个安全的避风港(Jones, 2009;Wyplosz认为,2009)。尽管有人担心欧元将如何面对它的第一次重大危机(Feldstein, 2008;Munchau, 2009),欧盟(EU)的单一货币通常被视为对抗震撼世界的金融风暴的保护力量。例如,《经济学人》得出的结论是,“欧元已被证明是经济危机中的避风港——以至于没有国家真的想离开它,而很多国家想加入”(《经济学人》,2009年)。根据Attinasi等人(2010a, p. 35)的说法,主权债券投资者也持有这种观点,因为在2008年9月(雷曼兄弟破产)至2009年3月(金融市场开始企稳)期间,出现了向欧元区“避险”的现象。在此期间,大多数欧元区国家的主权债券收益率都出现了下降。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
PSN: Responses to Financial Crises (Development) (Topic)
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