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The State and COVID-19 Economic Recovery Strategy in Nigeria 尼日利亚国家和2019冠状病毒病经济复苏战略
Pub Date : 2021-07-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3895418
A. Ajah, Edith Uwajumogu C.
Beyond the untold health challenges, the COVID-19 pandemic brought significant economic disruption; inducing one of the worst global recessions since World War II. However, while studies have explored the socio-economic and health implications of the pandemic; including governments’ social protection responses through relief packages, extant literature has glossed over the Nigerian COVID-19 economic recovery strategy. Anchoring on the Rentier State Theory and Qual-dominant approach, this study examines the nature and trajectory of the Nigeria economic recovery strategy in the shock of COVID-19 recession. It found that despite the vulnerability of an oil-dependent economy as was exposed by the COVID-19 lockdowns, the Nigerian economic recovery and sustainability Plan 2020 to 2025 still rely on oil rents. Thus, the study concludes that without the development and expansion of domestic manufacturing through science and technology, the Nigerian economy is unlikely to survive future economic shocks. Therefore, the study recommends that to ensure sustainable economic growth and development, the domestic and home-grown industries should be expanded and sustained to drive the Nigerian economy.
除了难以形容的卫生挑战之外,2019冠状病毒病大流行还带来了严重的经济中断;引发了二战以来最严重的全球经济衰退之一。然而,虽然研究探讨了该流行病的社会经济和健康影响;包括政府通过一揽子救济计划采取的社会保护措施在内,现有文献都掩盖了尼日利亚应对COVID-19的经济复苏战略。本研究以食利者国家理论和质量主导方法为基础,考察了在2019冠状病毒病经济衰退冲击下尼日利亚经济复苏战略的性质和轨迹。报告发现,尽管COVID-19封锁暴露了依赖石油的经济的脆弱性,但尼日利亚的经济复苏和2020年至2025年的可持续性计划仍然依赖石油租金。因此,该研究得出结论,如果没有通过科学技术发展和扩大国内制造业,尼日利亚经济不太可能在未来的经济冲击中生存下来。因此,研究建议,为了确保经济的可持续增长和发展,应该扩大和持续发展国内和本土产业,以推动尼日利亚经济。
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19’s Impact on Indian Financial Market COVID-19对印度金融市场的影响
Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3920180
Phat Huynh
This study analyses the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Indian Stock Exchange in the initial months. Inclusive investigation suggests that the fears of coronavirus effect on the global economy have rocked markets worldwide, with stock prices plunging. The Indian stocks were eventually „back in the red‟ despite various stimulus packages announced by the Fed and RBI. It further describes why COVID-19 is not the only reason for the recent stock market crash and suggests that falling stock markets might not be the only reason for a possible global recession as the real challenge this time is the interaction of supply shock with a substantial fall in spending by consumers and businesses, i.e., demand shock which will produce a deeper and a more lasting recession.
本研究分析了COVID-19大流行在最初几个月对印度证券交易所的影响。包容性调查显示,对冠状病毒对全球经济影响的担忧震动了全球市场,股价暴跌。尽管美联储和印度央行宣布了各种刺激方案,但印度股市最终还是“回到了亏损状态”。报告进一步描述了为什么COVID-19不是最近股市崩盘的唯一原因,并指出股市下跌可能不是全球经济衰退的唯一原因,因为这次的真正挑战是供应冲击与消费者和企业支出大幅下降的相互作用,即需求冲击将导致更深、更持久的衰退。
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引用次数: 0
Airlines Stock Market Response to Stimulus Bill Expectation On March 25th, 2020 An Event Study 航空公司股票市场对2020年3月25日刺激法案预期的反应
Pub Date : 2021-01-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3760118
Robin Garewal
The slain SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus) negatively impacted business, industries, jobs, the economy, the stock market around the globe. The worst-hit were the travel & tourism and hospitality industries. This study examines the influence of travel ban and other restrictions during the pandemic on Airlines in the USA. The effect is evident in the stock market, the number of flights operating, and the timeline/updates from CDC affecting the industry as a whole. The market Model Event study methodology was used to a sample of 3 NYSE listed Airliners for a sample period of 64 days (start date-Feb 24th; end date-May 22nd, 2020). An event window of 64 days was observed with 22 days prior to the event and 42 days post-March 25th, 2020. Event t_1 was marked as the day when US stocks snapped back from the three-year lows ending it green as the lawmakers announced the fiscal package to combat the economic impact of COVID-19. With Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained 2,113.01 points or 11.4%, to close at 20,704.91 and the S&P 500 rose 209.93 points or 9.4% to close at 2,447.33. While the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 7,417.86, adding 557.19 points or 8.1%.[2]. Even though we observed significantly negative Average Abnormal Returns much before and after that period, where the investors were unsure of the outcome of by the administration and had low confidence level on the economic trajectory. The AAR diagnosed during and around that period was also found positive due to the news of the Rescue Package Expectation of $2 trillion stimulus bill.
被杀死的SARS-CoV-2(严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒)对全球的商业、工业、就业、经济、股市产生了负面影响。受打击最严重的是旅游业。旅游和酒店业。本研究考察了大流行期间旅行禁令和其他限制对美国航空公司的影响。这种影响在股票市场、运营航班数量以及CDC对整个行业的影响时间表/更新中都很明显。采用市场模型事件研究方法对3家纽交所上市的航空公司进行了为期64天的抽样调查(开始日期- 2月24日;截止日期:2020年5月22日)。事件窗口期为64天,其中事件发生前22天,事件发生后42天。今年1月1日,美国股市从三年低点反弹,收涨,因为国会议员宣布了应对新冠肺炎经济影响的财政方案。道琼斯工业平均指数(DJI)上升2113.01点(11.4%),以20704.91点收盘;标准普尔500指数上升209.93点(9.4%),以2447.33点收盘。纳斯达克综合指数收盘于7417.86点,上涨557.19点,涨幅8.1%。尽管在此之前和之后,我们观察到明显的负平均异常回报,投资者对政府的结果不确定,对经济轨迹的信心水平很低。在此期间和前后诊断出的AAR也被发现是积极的,因为预计有2万亿美元的救援计划刺激法案。
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引用次数: 0
The IMF's Financial Catch-22: Global Banker or Lender of Last Resort? 国际货币基金组织的金融第22条军规:全球银行家还是最后贷款人?
Pub Date : 2020-09-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3500162
S. Kaplan, Sujeong Shim
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has dual institutional roles: a steward of international financial stability and a global banker safeguarding the resources of its sovereign shareholders. But, how does the IMF behave when its balance sheet becomes exposed to higher-than-usual credit risk, creating a financial catch-22? We expect the IMF varies its lending behavior, based on the nature of sovereign credit crises. When there is high contagion risk, the IMF aims to preserve global financial stability as a lender of last resort by extending large loans, notwithstanding its balance sheet strains. The IMF employs policy conditionality to hedge its lending risk, but prioritizes alleviating global market turmoil over program compliance. When market contagion is contained, however, the IMF is more likely to act as a traditional banker, suspending programs for non-compliance. Ironically, given its tendency to forgive non-compliance as a lender of last resort, our theoretical framework suggests that the Fund intensifies its moral hazard problem.

We test our theoretical priors by conducting a comparative case study analysis of IMF decision-making over time for two of its largest borrowers: Argentina and Greece. Leveraging volumes of hundred-paged minutes from IMF executive board meeting archives and extensive field research interviews, we illustrate the lending stances of IMF directors evolve in response to changes in global contagion risk. By examining the IMF’s own institutional agency under high financial risk, this study offers new insights for the study of international political economy and international organizations.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)有双重机构角色:国际金融稳定的管家和保护其主权股东资源的全球银行家。但是,当IMF的资产负债表暴露在高于正常水平的信贷风险之下,造成金融困境时,IMF该如何表现?我们预计,IMF将根据主权信贷危机的性质,调整其贷款行为。当危机蔓延的风险很高时,IMF的目标是作为最后贷款人,通过提供巨额贷款来维护全球金融稳定,尽管其资产负债表紧张。IMF利用政策条件来对冲贷款风险,但将缓解全球市场动荡置于计划合规之上。然而,当市场蔓延得到控制时,IMF更有可能扮演传统银行家的角色,暂停不合规项目。具有讽刺意味的是,鉴于imf作为最后贷款人倾向于原谅不合规行为,我们的理论框架表明,imf加剧了其道德风险问题。我们通过对IMF对阿根廷和希腊这两个最大借款国长期决策的比较案例研究分析,检验了我们的理论先验。利用国际货币基金组织执董会数百页的会议记录和广泛的实地研究访谈,我们说明了国际货币基金组织董事的贷款立场随着全球传染风险的变化而演变。本研究通过考察IMF自身在高金融风险下的制度机构,为国际政治经济学和国际组织的研究提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 1
The Short-Term Effect of the Paycheck Protection Program on Unemployment 工资保障计划对失业的短期影响
Pub Date : 2020-08-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3667431
Santiago Barraza, Martín A. Rossi, Timothy J. Yeager
We study the short-term causal effect of the Paycheck Protection Program on unemployment. Using the 2019 density of Small Business Administration member bank offices in a county as an instrument for PPP loans originated in that county during April 2020, we find statistically and economically significant effects from the program on unemployment. Our results highlight the importance of this relief policy and the financial system infrastructure in preserving jobs during the COVID-19 crisis.
我们研究了工资保障计划对失业的短期因果效应。我们使用2019年一个县小企业管理局成员银行办事处的密度作为2020年4月在该县发起的PPP贷款的工具,发现该计划对失业的统计和经济影响显着。我们的研究结果凸显了这一救济政策和金融体系基础设施在2019冠状病毒病危机期间保持就业的重要性。
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引用次数: 16
Borrowers Beware: PPP Loans May Provide a Lifeline or Liability 借款人注意:PPP贷款可能提供生命线,也可能提供责任
Pub Date : 2020-05-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3605986
S. Block
The article is a review of the Paycheck Protection Program (“PPP”), an initiative under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (“CARES”) Act. The program was meant as a lifeline for small businesses by offering forgivable loans. However, recent reports have indicated that billions went to large public companies. In the article I examine the pitfalls of the program such as its ambiguous guidelines.
这篇文章是对工资保护计划(PPP)的回顾,该计划是根据《冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》(CARES)提出的一项倡议。该计划旨在通过提供可免除贷款为小企业提供生命线。然而,最近的报告显示,数十亿美元流入了大型上市公司。在本文中,我研究了该程序的缺陷,例如其模糊的指导方针。
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引用次数: 0
Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments 收入、流动性和消费对2020年经济刺激支出的反应
Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3587894
S. Baker, R. Farrokhnia, Steffen Meyer, Michaela Pagel, Constantine Yannelis, Suwen Ge, Spyros Kypraios, Rebecca Liu
The 2020 CARES Act directed large cash payments to households. We analyze households’ spending responses using data from a Fintech non-profit, exploring heterogeneity by income, recent income declines, and liquidity as well as linked survey responses about economic expectations. Households respond rapidly to payments, with spending increasing by about $0.14 per dollar during the first week and plateauing around $0.25-$0.30 over 3 months. In contrast to previous stimulus programs, we see little response of durables spending. Households with lower incomes, greater income declines, and less liquidity display stronger responses whereas households that expect employment losses and benefit cuts display weaker responses.
2020年的《关怀法案》将大笔现金支付给家庭。我们使用来自金融科技非营利组织的数据来分析家庭的支出反应,探索收入、近期收入下降、流动性以及与经济预期相关的调查反应的异质性。家庭对付款的反应很快,在第一周,每1美元的支出增加约0.14美元,在3个月内稳定在0.25- 0.30美元左右。与之前的刺激计划相比,我们看到耐用品支出几乎没有反应。收入较低、收入下降幅度较大和流动性较少的家庭表现出更强的反应,而预计失业和福利削减的家庭表现出较弱的反应。
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引用次数: 176
Turkish Lira – A Fiat Currency that Resembles the Volatility of Cryptocurrencies: The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Turkish Economy 土耳其里拉——一种类似于加密货币波动的法定货币:汇率波动对土耳其经济的影响
Pub Date : 2019-02-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3335545
John Taskinsoy
The dollar’s dominance as the world’s reserve currency was inaugurated at the 1944 Bretton Woods conference where the agreement was signed by the 44 wartime allies, but the dollar’s hegemony was solidified in 1971 when US President Nixon cut the dollar’s link to gold. True, the fixed exchange rate regime reminiscence of the Bretton Woods is no longer with us; and also true that the two watchdog institutions created in 1944 are still around permitting and encouraging but almost compelling world inflation. We are now faced with a dilemma that begs for a solution; the Bretton Woods system and its successor the dollar regime after 1971 created a system of economic slavery in which all countries are serving to keep the United States of America happy. The inevitable birth of Bitcoin is the upshot of this dilemma and the most recent devaluation of the Turkish lira is an unescapable consequence that unmistakably demonstrated exactly what happens when the U.S. demands are not satisfied. The U.S. dollar continues to rule both international trade and foreign exchange markets; today, circa 90% of daily forex trading volume is dollar denominated plus half of the world’s 185 currencies are in a tight trading range to the dollar. Since the late 1990s, the United States’ growing abuse of sanction power via the dollar tool has reemerged the interest in search for a viable alternative to the U.S. dollar.
1944年,44个战时盟国在布雷顿森林会议上签署了协议,美元作为世界储备货币的主导地位由此确立,但1971年,美国总统尼克松切断了美元与黄金的联系,美元的霸权地位得以巩固。诚然,与布雷顿森林体系(Bretton Woods)类似的固定汇率制度已不复存在;同样正确的是,1944年创建的两个监督机构仍然在允许和鼓励,但几乎是强迫全球通胀。我们现在面临着一个需要解决的困境;布雷顿森林体系及其1971年后的美元体系创造了一种经济奴役制度,在这种制度下,所有国家都在为美利坚合众国的幸福服务。比特币不可避免的诞生就是这种困境的结果,最近土耳其里拉的贬值是一个不可避免的后果,它清楚地表明,当美国的要求得不到满足时,会发生什么。美元继续统治着国际贸易和外汇市场;如今,约90%的每日外汇交易量是以美元计价的,而且全球185种货币中有一半对美元的交易区间很窄。自20世纪90年代末以来,美国越来越多地滥用美元工具的制裁权力,重新引发了寻找一种可行的替代美元的兴趣。
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引用次数: 38
Post-Crisis Economic and Social Policy: Some Thoughts on Structural Reforms 2.0. 后危机经济与社会政策:关于结构性改革的一些思考2.0。
Pub Date : 2018-10-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3273562
Philomila Tsoukala
Managing the euro crisis has been a process of institutional transformation for the EU. The European Semester has emerged as a powerful tool for economic policy coordination between the Member States. Beyond the new enforcement tools that the Semester affords the Commission and Council in case of non-compliance with country-specific recommendations, the management of the crisis has given the Commission experience in structural reforms. The Commission now regularly uses this experience in formulating its yearly country-specific recommendations to Member States. Far from a stalwart of untethered neoliberalism, the Commission has been fashioning itself as the manager with a human face, the institution that understands both the structural reform requirements for a global economy, and the special need for strong social institutions that could shield European citizens from the worst of the shocks provoked by globalized markets. Hence the name, “Structural Reforms 2.0,” per the Juncker Commission. In this chapter, I review the Commission’s emerging structural reform “know-how,” as represented in its latest reflection papers and European Semester documents. The European Commission seems to have drawn from its experience in managing loan conditionality for debtor countries like Greece, Portugal, and Ireland, in order to come up with the set of structural reforms that it considers necessary for any country to thrive within the context of the euro. At the same time, it has taken on board the critiques of structural reforms that point to the potentially negative short-term effects of structural adjustment. Thus, the Commission seems to have fully embraced the idea of the EU as a soft alternative to unfettered globalization and has taken it upon itself to monitor certain aspects of the welfare state in Member States. The Commission’s recommendations, however, while presented in the mode of technocratic expertise, entail deeply political choices in almost every imaginable regulatory field. Despite constant assurances that there is no “one-size fits all” model for structural reforms, what is shaping up through the European Semester is effectively a list of desirable reforms—a set menu of options—which the Commission now openly characterizes as “EU best practices.” If applied, they would provoke deep restructurings and adjustments of national political economies with winners and losers to boot. These demands for deep restructurings are couched in a language of technical adjustment and fine-tuning that does not do justice to the qualitative reform required of the Member States nor to the substantive trade-offs between market efficiency and social fairness that only a democratic process can legitimize. Contrary to some observers, I conclude that the inclusion of social policy goals into the European Semester can be an indication of both the success of socially minded actors in influencing the content of macroeconomic governance, and of the success of market-minded
对欧盟来说,应对欧元危机是一个制度转型的过程。欧洲学期已成为成员国之间经济政策协调的有力工具。除了本学期在不遵守具体国家建议的情况下向委员会和理事会提供新的执法工具之外,危机的管理使委员会在结构改革方面获得了经验。委员会现在经常利用这一经验拟订其每年向会员国提出的具体国家建议。欧盟委员会远不是一个不受约束的新自由主义的坚定拥护者,而是一直在把自己塑造成一个有人性的管理者,这个机构既了解全球经济的结构改革要求,也了解强大的社会制度的特殊需求,这些制度可以保护欧洲公民免受全球化市场引发的最严重冲击。因此,根据容克委员会(Juncker Commission)的说法,此次改革被称为“结构性改革2.0”。在本章中,我将回顾欧盟委员会在其最新反思论文和欧洲学期文件中所体现的新兴结构改革“诀窍”。欧盟委员会(European Commission)似乎从管理希腊、葡萄牙和爱尔兰等债务国贷款条件的经验中汲取了经验,从而提出了一套它认为任何国家在欧元背景下繁荣发展所必需的结构性改革。与此同时,它也采纳了对结构改革的批评,这些批评指出,结构调整可能产生短期负面影响。因此,委员会似乎完全接受了欧盟作为不受约束的全球化的软替代品的想法,并自行监督成员国福利国家的某些方面。然而,尽管欧盟委员会的建议是以技术专家的专业知识模式提出的,但它在几乎所有可以想象到的监管领域都涉及深刻的政治选择。尽管不断保证结构改革没有“放之四海而皆准”的模式,但欧洲学期正在形成的是一份有效的理想改革清单——一套选项菜单——欧盟委员会现在公开将其描述为“欧盟最佳实践”。如果付诸实施,它们将引发国家政治经济的深度重组和调整,同时也会有赢家和输家。这些对深度改革的要求是以技术调整和微调的语言提出的,这种语言既没有公正地对待会员国所要求的质量改革,也没有公正地对待只有民主进程才能使之合法化的市场效率和社会公平之间的实质性权衡。与一些观察人士相反,我的结论是,将社会政策目标纳入欧洲学期,既表明具有社会意识的行动者成功地影响了宏观经济治理的内容,也表明具有市场意识的行动者成功地适应了宏观经济治理中对“社会公平”的要求,同时又没有在所需的各种改革方面让出太多空间。欧洲学期的这种“社会化”将在很大程度上取决于共同货币管理的其余部分如何演变。
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引用次数: 2
Bailouts, the Legal Status of Memoranda of Understanding, and the Scope of Application of the EU Charter: Florescu 救助、谅解备忘录的法律地位和欧盟宪章的适用范围:弗洛雷斯库
Pub Date : 2018-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3163823
Menelaos Markakis, P. Dermine
This commentary offers an analysis of the Florescu ruling, rendered by the ECJ in June 2017. Among others, it offers insights on the legal status of the MoU bailed-out countries enter into, the reviewability of these instruments, and the applicability of the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights to financial assistance in the EU.
本评论对2017年6月欧洲法院对弗洛雷斯库案的裁决进行了分析。除其他外,它提供了对受援助国家签署的谅解备忘录的法律地位、这些文书的可审查性以及《欧盟基本权利宪章》对欧盟财政援助的适用性的见解。
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引用次数: 18
期刊
PSN: Responses to Financial Crises (Development) (Topic)
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