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The Global Downturn and its Impact on Euro Area Exports and Competitiveness 全球经济衰退及其对欧元区出口和竞争力的影响
Filippo di Mauro, Katrin Forster, Ana Lima
World trade contracted sharply in late 2008 and early 2009 following the deepening of the financial crisis in September 2008. This paper discusses the main mechanisms behind the global downturn in trade and its impact on euro area exports and competitiveness. It finds that the euro area was hit particularly hard by the contraction in global demand. Moreover, the collapse in the demand for euro area products during the downturn was exacerbated to some degree by unfavourable developments in price competitiveness, resulting in further losses in competitiveness compared to our main trading partners, in line with pre-crisis trends. This view is also confi rmed by evidence from broad-based competitiveness measures, which show that euro area countries recorded losses in productivity during this period. Going forward, the recovery in world trade will depend mainly on a resurgence in global demand and its expenditure composition. With regard to the euro area, as the global economy recovers at varying speeds and given the current growth momentum in emerging economies, the performance of the external sector may be hindered by the geographical orientation of its export markets, which are mainly focused on advanced economies and other EU member states. Furthermore, the strength and sustainability of the recovery in exports will also depend on the structuring process undertaken by European fi rms in response to globalisation-related challenges. Governments within the European Union should therefore focus on policies to strengthen competition and increase market integration, in order to benefit fully from the globalisation process going forward. In contrast, a resurgence in global protectionist policies could dampen the prospects for world and euro area trade and should be strongly resisted. JEL Classification: C32, O11
2008年9月金融危机加深后,世界贸易在2008年末和2009年初急剧收缩。本文讨论了全球贸易下滑背后的主要机制及其对欧元区出口和竞争力的影响。报告发现,欧元区受到全球需求萎缩的打击尤为严重。此外,价格竞争力的不利发展在一定程度上加剧了经济衰退期间对欧元区产品需求的崩溃,导致与主要贸易伙伴相比竞争力进一步下降,这与危机前的趋势一致。这一观点也得到了广泛的竞争力指标证据的证实,该指标显示,欧元区国家在这一时期的生产率出现了下降。展望未来,世界贸易的复苏将主要取决于全球需求及其支出构成的复苏。就欧元区而言,由于全球经济以不同的速度复苏,并且考虑到新兴经济体目前的增长势头,其出口市场的地理定位可能会阻碍其对外部门的表现,其出口市场主要集中在发达经济体和其他欧盟成员国。此外,出口复苏的力度和可持续性也将取决于欧洲公司为应对与全球化有关的挑战而进行的结构调整进程。因此,欧盟各国政府应把重点放在加强竞争和增加市场一体化的政策上,以便从未来的全球化进程中充分受益。相比之下,全球保护主义政策的复苏可能会抑制世界和欧元区贸易的前景,应该受到强烈抵制。JEL分类:C32, O11
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引用次数: 41
Measuring Capacity Utilization in the Italian Manufacturing Sector: A Comparison Between Time Series and Survey Models in Light of the Actual Economic Crisis 衡量意大利制造业产能利用率:基于实际经济危机的时间序列与调查模型的比较
M. Malgarini, A. Paradiso
The aim of this paper is to make a comparison between survey and time series-based estimates of capacity utilization for the Italian manufacturing sector. The comparison is focused on the actual economic crisis. Two kinds of empirical evaluation are implemented: the ability of the series to correctly track cyclical turning points and their contribution in explaining CPI inflation. The ISAE survey measures results to be lagging, especially at troughs, and moreover time series-based measures generally outperform the survey in explaining inflation.
本文的目的是对意大利制造业产能利用率的调查和基于时间序列的估计进行比较。这种比较集中在实际的经济危机上。本文实施了两种实证评价:序列正确跟踪周期拐点的能力及其对解释CPI通胀的贡献。ISAE调查测量的结果滞后,特别是在低谷时,而且基于时间序列的测量在解释通货膨胀方面通常优于调查。
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引用次数: 9
Universal Service and State Aid in the European Union in the Era of NGN NGN时代欧盟的普遍服务与国家援助
Kenneth R. Carter
This paper was authored with a Japanese audience in mind to explain recent developments in universal service policy and State aid rules for Next Generation Networks in the European Union. Universal service policy is intended to ensure that all members of society should be able to obtain a minimum level access to communications networks at fair and reasonable prices without regard to their where they live, their income level, or other disadvantages. Countries typically pursue universal service policies for communications networks because their benefit in terms stimulating broader economic growth outweighs the possible economic inefficiencies these policies can introduce.The on-going migration of communication networks to multi-service NGNs holds challenges for universal service policy. Heretofore, these universal service policies have been applied to traditional voice telecommunications networks. Given the decreasing importance of traditional voice telecommunications networks and growing adoption NGNs, industrialized nations are considering whether and how to apply universal service policies to broadband networks. Within the European Union, efforts are under way to address these questions such as the necessary and appropriate role for governments in funding universal service for NGNs. The rules governing State aid prohibits any form of aid which distorts or threatens to distort competition by favoring certain firms or certain goods. State aid includes, under certain circumstances, the public ownership of firms. The European Union recognizes that State aid can advance common interests and can remedy market failures. However, this approach also limits the way in which State aid can be used so as to not crowd out private investment. In September 2009, the European Commission published guidelines which established distinction between what it calls white, black and grey NGA areas to guide the granting of State aid for NGA deployment. In so-called ‘white NGA’ areas, aid supporting broadband network is generally permissible. In so-called ‘NGA grey’ and ‘NGA black’ areas, State aid is permissible only where the deployment where unsatisfactory or if there is market failure.These efforts may hold valuable lessons for regulators in other countries, particularly those where the incumbent carrier is partly publicly owned. The European Union approach is intended to present the least intrusive means, and as such it embodies the principle that desired outcome should be achieved with the least amount of effort possible and at the least possible economic cost.
本文是为日本读者撰写的,旨在解释欧盟下一代网络普遍服务政策和国家援助规则的最新发展。普遍服务政策的目的是确保社会所有成员都能够以公平合理的价格获得最低限度的通信网络接入,而不考虑其居住地点、收入水平或其他不利条件。各国通常推行通信网络普遍服务政策,因为这些政策在刺激更广泛的经济增长方面的好处超过了这些政策可能带来的经济效率低下。通信网络向多业务下一代网络的持续迁移对通用业务政策提出了挑战。到目前为止,这些通用业务策略已经应用到传统的话音通信网中。鉴于传统话音电信网络重要性的下降和下一代网络的日益普及,工业化国家正在考虑是否以及如何将普遍服务政策应用于宽带网络。在欧洲联盟内部,正在努力解决这些问题,例如政府在资助下一代网络普遍服务方面的必要和适当作用。有关国家援助的规则禁止通过偏袒某些公司或某些商品而扭曲或威胁扭曲竞争的任何形式的援助。在某些情况下,国家援助包括企业的公有制。欧洲联盟认识到,国家援助可以促进共同利益,可以补救市场失灵。但是,这种做法也限制了使用国家援助的方式,以免排挤私人投资。2009年9月,欧盟委员会发布了指导方针,建立了所谓的白色,黑色和灰色NGA区域的区分,以指导为NGA部署提供国家援助。在所谓的“白色NGA”地区,支持宽带网络的援助通常是允许的。在所谓的“NGA灰色”和“NGA黑色”地区,只有在部署不令人满意或市场失灵的情况下,才允许国家援助。这些努力可能为其他国家的监管机构提供宝贵的经验,尤其是那些现有航空公司部分为国有的国家。欧洲联盟的做法旨在提出侵入性最小的手段,因此它体现了一项原则,即应以尽可能少的努力和尽可能少的经济代价取得预期的结果。
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引用次数: 1
Analysis of the Pharmaceutical Sector in the Period 2000-2008 (In Spanish) 2000-2008年制药业分析(西班牙文)
Hugo Alberto Rivera Rodríguez, A. Avila, Diana López, F. García, Deisy F. Garzón, Diana Flores
To cope with turbulence and achieve improvements in performance, companies must develop a process of addressing aimed at generating strategic dynamic capabilities, and to carry out relevant organizational changes. Only those organizations able to adapt to new environmental conditions and develop and maintain competitive advantages sustainable can be sustained over time.The pharmaceutical sector is no stranger to this situation, there has been uncertainty has been reflected in the difficulty of predicting environment behavior, difficulty in predicting the outcome of the actions of those involved, companies have been forced to work hard to find the best response to market changes. The dynamism of the sector has been reflected in that the knowledge necessary for the operation of the company often change, no change in taste by consumer modes of production and service change frequently, there is competition in pricing and promotions, and any action is matched by competitors quickly. In complexity of the sector, a large number of actors and components in the environment, the existing factors (technological, economic, political, social, cultural) are heterogeneous, new products have been developed as a result of technological advances.This paper intends to contribute to group work. This will perform a strategic analysis of the pharmaceutical sector in period between 2000 and 2008.
为了应对动荡并实现绩效的改进,公司必须制定一个旨在产生战略动态能力的解决过程,并进行相关的组织变革。只有那些能够适应新的环境条件,可持续地发展和保持竞争优势的组织,才能长期持续下去。制药行业对这种情况并不陌生,存在的不确定性已经体现在预测环境行为的困难,预测相关行为的结果的困难,公司已经被迫努力寻找对市场变化的最佳反应。行业的动态性体现在:公司运作所必需的知识经常变化,消费者的口味没有变化,生产和服务方式经常变化,定价和促销方面存在竞争,任何行动都很快被竞争对手匹配。在复杂的部门中,环境中有大量的行为者和组成部分,现有的因素(技术、经济、政治、社会、文化)是异质的,由于技术进步而开发了新产品。这篇论文旨在对小组工作有所贡献。它将对2000年至2008年期间的制药部门进行战略分析。
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引用次数: 0
Wage Rigidity, Collective Bargaining and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from French Agreement Data 工资刚性、集体谈判和最低工资:来自法国协议数据的证据
S. Avouyi-Dovi, D. Fougère, E. Gautier
Using several unique data sets on wage agreements at both industry and firm levels in France, we document stylized facts on wage stickiness and the impact of wage-setting institutions on wage rigidity. First, the average duration of wages is a little less than one year and around 10 percent of wages are modified each month by a wage agreement. Data patterns are consistent with predictions of a mixture of Calvo and Taylor models. The frequency of wage change agreements is rather staggered over the year but the frequency of effective wage changes is seasonal. The national minimum wage has a significant impact on the probability of a wage agreement and on the seasonality of wage changes. Negotiated wage increases are correlated with inflation, the national minimum wage increases and the firm profitability.
利用法国行业和企业层面工资协议的几个独特数据集,我们记录了工资粘性和工资设定机构对工资刚性的影响的风格化事实。首先,工资的平均期限不到1年,每月通过工资协议修改工资的10%左右。数据模式与卡尔沃和泰勒混合模型的预测一致。工资变化协议的频率在一年内是错开的,但有效工资变化的频率是季节性的。国家最低工资对达成工资协议的可能性和工资变化的季节性具有重大影响。协商工资增长与通货膨胀、国家最低工资增长和企业盈利能力相关。
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引用次数: 8
Understanding the Spanish Business Innovation Gap: The Role of Spillovers and Firms’ Absorptive Capacity 理解西班牙企业创新差距:溢出效应和企业吸收能力的作用
José Manuel Montero, Paloma López-García
This paper investigates whether the existence of knowledge spillovers, differences in the capacity of f rms to assimilate them and disparities in some human resource management practices are related with the decision to innovate of Spanish f rms. In order to do this, we employ data from the “Central de Balances” database, which covers both manufacturing and services f rms during the period 2003-2007, and use an estimator proposed by Wooldridge (2005) for dynamic random effects discrete choice models. The empirical exercise provides evidence on the positive link between spillovers and the innovative behaviour of companies, not just for the knowledge generated in the same industry, but also for that generated in the same region or by the public sector. Moreover, this link is stronger for those f rms with a higher capacity to absorb those spillovers. This ability not only works through f rms’ R&D capabilities, but also through such factors as the quality of the labour force, the share of temporary employment and the amount of resources spent in training. In addition to these factors, we f nd that innovation performance exhibits a high degree of inertia. Further, some other observed f rm characteristics, such as size, sales growth, export behaviour, sector capital intensity or f nancial structure variables, are also found to be relevant determinants of the likelihood of innovation.
本文研究了西班牙企业的创新决策是否与知识溢出的存在、企业吸收知识溢出能力的差异以及某些人力资源管理实践的差异有关。为了做到这一点,我们使用了来自“中央平衡”数据库的数据,该数据库涵盖了2003-2007年期间的制造业和服务业,并使用了Wooldridge(2005)提出的动态随机效应离散选择模型的估计器。实证研究为溢出效应与企业创新行为之间的积极联系提供了证据,这不仅体现在同一行业产生的知识上,也体现在同一地区或公共部门产生的知识上。此外,对于那些吸收这些溢出效应的能力更高的公司来说,这种联系更强。这种能力不仅通过企业的研发能力起作用,还通过劳动力的质量、临时就业的比例和用于培训的资源数量等因素起作用。除了这些因素外,我们发现创新绩效表现出高度的惯性。此外,一些其他观察到的企业特征,如规模、销售增长、出口行为、部门资本密集度或财务结构变量,也被发现是创新可能性的相关决定因素。
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引用次数: 58
Ownership, Institutions and Productivity of European Electricity Firms 欧洲电力公司的所有权、制度和生产率
M. Florio, Elisabetta Borghi, C. D. Del Bo
Using firm-level balance-sheet data comparable across EU countries, we consider firms active in generation, distribution and transmission of electricity and their ownership structure to empirically investigate the interaction of public versus private ownership and the quality of institutions as determinants of productivity. While earlier literature has traditionally focused on ownership as an internal governance mechanism, and has suggested that public ownership is associated with lower productivity than under private ownership, here we focus on the role of institutions as an external governance mechanism. After controlling for size, wages, countries and sectors, we confirm that government-owned tend to be less productive than their private counterparts (a result robust to different productivity measures), but we also discover two new facts. First, when the control of the firm by government is indirect, i. e. when government ownership is at the top of the control chain, the negative productive effect is weaker. Second, this effect is smaller in countries with high-quality institutions and public enterprises are more efficient than in countries with a poor institutional environment
利用欧盟各国可比的企业资产负债表数据,我们考虑了活跃在发电、配电和输电领域的企业及其所有权结构,以实证研究公有制与私有制之间的相互作用,以及作为生产率决定因素的制度质量。虽然早期的文献传统上把所有权作为一种内部治理机制,并认为公有制比私有制与更低的生产率相关,但在这里,我们关注的是制度作为一种外部治理机制的作用。在控制了规模、工资、国家和部门之后,我们证实,国有企业的生产率往往低于私营企业(这一结果对不同的生产率指标都很有效),但我们也发现了两个新的事实。首先,当政府对企业的控制是间接的,即政府所有权处于控制链的顶端时,负生产效应较弱。其次,在制度质量高的国家,这种效应较小,公共企业的效率高于制度环境较差的国家
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引用次数: 5
Bundling and Compatibility: Selling the Whole Package May Be Pro-Competitive 捆绑和兼容性:销售整套产品可能有利于竞争
M. Alvisi, Emanuela Carbonara
In this paper we study price competition, equilibrium market configurations and entry decisions when firms compete in vertically-differentiated markets producing complementary goods. We show that allowing firms to sell complementary goods may be welfare-enhancing and pro-competitive. In fact, such strategy favors the entry of new firms producing lower-quality components. Moreover, this strategy increases consumer surplus, even when firms sell the two complements as a bundle. Interestingly, notwithstanding the increase in competition, it is always optimal for firms to enter a complementary good market. By discouraging such practices, antitrust authorities may harm both consumers and low-quality firms, at the same time undermining market stability.
本文研究了生产互补产品的垂直差异化市场中企业竞争的价格竞争、均衡市场配置和进入决策。我们表明,允许企业销售互补产品可能会提高福利和促进竞争。事实上,这种策略有利于生产低质量零部件的新公司进入。此外,这种策略增加了消费者剩余,即使公司将这两种互补产品捆绑销售。有趣的是,尽管竞争加剧,企业进入互补性好的市场总是最优的。通过阻止这种做法,反垄断当局可能会损害消费者和低质量公司,同时破坏市场稳定。
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引用次数: 0
Knowledge Diffusion and Innovation Policies within the European Regions: Challenges Based on Recent Empirical Evidence 欧洲地区的知识扩散和创新政策:基于近期经验证据的挑战
C. Autant-Bernard, M. Fadairo, N. Massard
This article builds upon the empirical results concerning localised knowledge spillovers in order to highlight some policy implications within the European regions. The analysis emphasises the role of the regional innovationpolicies as supporting the institutions which generate knowledge and learning. However, it appears that the search for universal policy tools is unrealistic. The empirical literature stresses indeed a variety of regional features. In this perspective, we argue that original strategies have to be built in order to cope with the various dilemmas faced by regional innovationpolicies, concerning in particular the best way to enhance and exploit public/private, intra/inter-firms, intra/inter-industries and local/global knowledge flows. Such specific strategies require having an accurate knowledge on the local features and on the comparative positioning of the concerned region compared to others. Improving data and indicators to diagnose and monitor regional innovation is therefore presented as a key issue for the policy makers.
本文建立在关于局部知识溢出的实证结果的基础上,以突出欧洲地区的一些政策影响。分析强调了区域创新政策在支持产生知识和学习的机构方面的作用。然而,寻找通用的政策工具似乎是不现实的。实证文献确实强调了各种区域特征。从这个角度来看,我们认为必须建立原始战略,以应对区域创新政策面临的各种困境,特别是关于加强和利用公共/私营、企业内部/企业间、行业内部/行业间以及地方/全球知识流动的最佳方式。这种具体战略要求对当地特点和有关地区与其他地区的比较定位有准确的了解。因此,改善数据和指标以诊断和监测区域创新是决策者面临的一个关键问题。
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引用次数: 151
Marrying and Breaking Up: Firms and their Relationship Lenders 结婚和分手:公司和他们的关系出借人
Ingrid Stein, Christoph Memmel, C. Schmieder
This study analyzes the circumstances under which firms choose to have a relationship lender and under which firms switch their relationship lender. Relationship lending is measured by the largest lender’s share of debt. Our study is based on a unique dataset for Germany with more than 13,000 observations. We find that young firms and well capitalized firms are more likely to concentrate their borrowing on one bank. These two groups of firms are also more likely to switch their relationship lender. Moreover, firms concentrate their borrowing more heavily on banks with a high share of core deposits. Small firms are also more likely to stay with relationship lenders with a high share of core deposits. Finally, the proportion of debt borrowed from the relationship lender is reduced if the relationship between the lender and the borrower has been close for several years. Our findings suggest that both the decision in favor of relationship lending and the decision to switch the relationship lender are made in such a way as to balance the potential benefits and costs of a relationship lender’s access to private information.
本研究分析了企业在何种情况下选择关系出借人以及企业在何种情况下转换关系出借人。关系贷款是由最大贷方的债务份额来衡量的。我们的研究基于德国的一个独特的数据集,其中有超过13,000个观察结果。我们发现,年轻公司和资本充足的公司更有可能集中向一家银行借款。这两类公司也更有可能改变他们的关系贷款人。此外,企业更多地将借款集中在核心存款占比较高的银行。小企业也更有可能与核心存款份额较高的关系银行保持联系。最后,如果贷方和借款人之间的关系已经密切了几年,那么从关系贷方借入的债务比例就会减少。我们的研究结果表明,支持关系借贷的决定和转换关系借贷的决定都是在平衡关系借贷获取私人信息的潜在利益和成本的情况下做出的。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
ERN: Other European Economics: Microeconomics & Industrial Organization (Topic)
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