International Studies of Economics最新文献

We use an overlapping generations model to study the challenge in developing countries with a large informal sector and aging population. We use Thailand as a case study and incorporate its labor market structure and its public pension system into the calibrated model. Unlike developed countries, workers in developing countries commonly transit from the formal sector to the informal sector, which can be in the early stage of their working life. This labor market feature crucially limits the coverage of the contributory social security (SS) system. We find that 66% of Thai elderly (aged 60 or over) are ineligible for SS annuity benefits because of an insufficient number of years paying into the SS fund. In addition, we use our model to evaluate two schemes to raise the existing universal basic pension income to the poverty line, namely, uniform benefits and pension-tested benefits. We find that pension-testing effectively improves the targeting efficiency, and nontrivially lowers the cost of the basic pension income program.

This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model designed to examine the macroeconomic effects and welfare implications of alternative reforms to the US health insurance system. Specifically, it scrutinizes the extent to which health care reform can mitigate inefficiencies stemming from market imperfections in the health insurance industry. The model considers a stochastic overlapping generations framework, incorporating heterogeneous agents who are subject to uncertain health shocks. These individuals make optimal decisions regarding labor supply, health insurance, and medical services. Given that the optimal levels of medical consumption and hours worked are endogenous, this setting encapsulates general equilibrium effects. The model is calibrated to US data, and numerical simulations suggest that suitable adjustments to the present health insurance system can broaden coverage and enhance welfare. This improvement is achieved by reducing adverse selection, improving overall health status, and lessening tax distortions on labor supply.

This paper uses a heterogeneous-agent overlapping-generations model to examine the fiscal and distributional consequences of introducing a means test in US Social Security. I find that a means test, that is, conditioning benefit payments on a household's earnings or assets, leads to a higher implicit tax on old-age resources, but has desirable distributional effects. A 75% cut in the benefits to households with earnings of more than 200% of the median leads to a 2.3% reduction in the overall size of Social Security, but has almost no effect on average dollar benefits. In contrast, a fiscally comparable payroll tax cut leads to an across-the-board decline of 2% in the average dollar benefits, despite an increase in capital and labor. A fiscally comparable delay in the benefit eligibility age increases benefits for all, but negatively affects capital and labor. Finally, an asset-based means test causes a decline of 1% in the average dollar benefits, but has a large negative effect on capital and the accidental bequests left behind by deceased households.

China's social safety net is still underdeveloped, hence family support in the form of intergenerational transfers often serves as a substitute for the public transfer system. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, this paper finds that both upstream inter-vivos transfers (from children to parents) and downstream inter-vivos transfers (from parents to children) are prevalent in urban China. Moreover, the relative income status of the parent and children has an impact on inter-vivos transfers. To investigate what economic factors generate the observed patterns of inter-vivos transfers, this paper adopts a general equilibrium life-cycle model in which overlapping generations are altruistically linked and calibrates the model to match data from urban China. Counterfactual experiments of removing one source of economic risk or modifying the social security replacement rate from the baseline model at a time reveal that intergenerational transfers mainly serve as informal insurance against the income risk of the children.

In the psychological and sociological framework of risk, we establish a static and dynamic equilibrium model for risk-sharing institutional evolution. Particularly, through a comparative study of marine insurance development in China and Europe, we address a wide set of research questions concerning why China and Europe relied on different social organizations for risk sharing.

This paper examines the potential profit of bull flag trading rules in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSE) using a template matching technique based on price pattern recognition. This paper fills a gap in the literature by applying a template matching technique for the recognition of bull flag patterns in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSE) during the period of 1991–2021. To the best of our knowledge, no previous study has applied bull flag trading rules to the Chinese stock market. Our results indicate that bull flag trading rules can correctly predict the price movement direction of the index most of the time, achieving significantly positive excess profits. Moreover, shorter fitting windows and better quality of price fit values for lower holding periods are associated with better performance. This research may have relevant practical implications for investors who opt for this indicator in their asset allocation decisions.

This paper investigates the dynamic interactions of the cross-section distribution of sectoral price changes and the output growth in the Chinese economy. We compare in depth the results of Granger causality tests, Impulse Response, and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions from Mixed Sampling Frequency Vector Autoregression (MFVAR) with those from common frequency vector autoregression (VAR). It shows that potential causalities for inflation, relative price variability, relative price skewness, and output growth can be successfully detected by the MFVAR. The cross-section distribution of sectoral price changes stands to be a fundamental determinant of fluctuations in the aggregate economy, not only in the short run but also in the long run. Moreover, the empirical results are robust to the identification restrictions imposed as well as to alternative measures for model variables. Our findings are in line with the predictions of a standard sticky-price model, and thus pricing frictions are important factors behind the short-run nonneutrality of nominal shocks. We highlight the primacy of the information contained in the higher-order moments of cross-section distribution of sectoral price changes. We propose that policy authorities should make proper use of all of the valuable information available, particularly those embodied in the distribution of sectoral prices.

Based on the patent data from China National Intellectual Property Administration, we attempt to examine the effect of gender diversity in inventor teams on patent quality. We argue that gender diversity in inventor teams can promote patent quality, especially the invention patents that are high quality and radically innovative. Moreover, we find that the positive effect will be enhanced in places where women are well educated and improved by reducing gender discrimination. We propose that the effect will be more significant when market competition or market uncertainty is high as well as when the enterprises are private and growing. Ultimately, our study advocates that governments and enterprises should pay more attention to female labor forces, especially in the area of science and innovation, which is beneficial to improve innovation in China and eliminate gender inequality in the labor market.

The openness and security of a country's borders is a matter of concern for countries worldwide. Since its reform and opening up in 1978, China has implemented reforming and opening policies in border regions, as represented by the “Xingbian Fumin Xingdong” (Revitalize Border Areas and Enrich Residents' Lives Policy [RBAERL Policy]) to achieve economic prosperity and stability. This study evaluated the impacts of the RBAERL policy in terms of outcomes related to county-level economic growth in China's border regions. Using China's county-level panel data from 1999 to 2016, we applied a spatial discontinuity design with the geographical boundary serving as the running variable. We found that the RBAERL policy contributed significantly to the economic growth of the border counties. These results were shown to be robust when measured against a series of test procedures. Through a by-segment analysis of the border regions, we found that the policy had the strongest effect in northeastern China. Further mechanism analysis showed that the effect of per capita GDP growth primarily resulted from the expansion of the industrial sector along with physical and human capital investment rather than the promotion of employment and the growth of total factor productivity. The findings of this study can provide references for the importance of open borders for economic development and national security.

Cross-affiliation emerges as a new and fast-developing means to promote collaboration in financial research. We find that the average number of affiliations reported per author in the top-three finance journals increases steadily from 1.1 to 1.3 from 1995 to 2016. Scale-free power laws characterize the resulting highly-skewed distributions of top finance journal publications of worldwide institutions. We propose an explanation of the scale-invariance, based on a network model featuring nonlinear growth and linear preferential attachment. The model indicates that success-breeds-success engenders 87% of total publications and hence the dispersion in research output, while accelerated growth of collaboration reduces the heterogeneity.