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Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through in India: A Non-linear ARDL Approach 印度的非对称汇率传递:一个非线性的ARDL方法
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1177/00157325231190474
Ganapati Mendali, Sanjukta Das
This study makes an attempt to examine the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices in India from 1993M4 to 2021M3. In the empirical literature, the relationship between the exchange rate and the price was found to be linear. However, in emerging economies recently the asymmetric relationship between these variables is noticed: the effect of appreciation on price is found to be negligible while the effect of depreciation is found to be significant. To study this behaviour, we have used non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model by employing five variables (viz., exchange rate, consumer price, output gap, money supply and oil prices). The structural break techniques are used to examine the differential effects of the pass-through. It found that exchange rate shocks do not lead to significant changes in consumer prices in the long run. In terms of policy, this means that the ERPT has insignificant consequences for monetary policy, and depreciation might pose a little threat to price stability. It is also established that oil price shocks are not one of the major determinants of inflation in the country and they do not pose serious challenges to price stability. Economic growth and monetary expansion also do not seem to pose any risks to price stability in the long run. JEL Classification: E31, E37, E52, F31
本研究试图检验汇率传递(ERPT)到印度国内价格从1993M4到2021M3。在实证文献中,发现汇率与价格之间的关系是线性的。然而,最近在新兴经济体中,这些变量之间的不对称关系被注意到:升值对价格的影响被发现可以忽略不计,而贬值的影响被发现是显著的。为了研究这种行为,我们使用了非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)模型,采用了五个变量(即汇率、消费者价格、产出缺口、货币供应和油价)。结构断裂技术被用来检验穿越的不同影响。研究发现,从长远来看,汇率冲击不会导致消费者价格发生重大变化。就政策而言,这意味着ERPT对货币政策的影响微不足道,贬值可能对价格稳定构成一点威胁。还可以确定的是,石油价格冲击不是该国通货膨胀的主要决定因素之一,它们不会对价格稳定构成严重挑战。从长远来看,经济增长和货币扩张似乎也不会对价格稳定构成任何风险。JEL分类:E31, E37, E52, F31
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引用次数: 0
The Necessity of New Versions of Bilateral Trade Balances and COVID-19: The Nonlinear ARDL Approach for the USA and Japan 新版双边贸易平衡与COVID-19的必要性:美国和日本的非线性ARDL方法
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-11-05 DOI: 10.1177/00157325231192180
Ismet Gocer, Serdar Ongan, Huseyin Karamelikl, Charles A. Rarick
This study aims to reveal the need to reformulate new forms of Bilateral Trade Balances (BTBs) for a country rather than a traditional BTB. This is because the traditional BTB ratio, based on total exports and defined as the total exports/total imports ratio, cannot classify and quantify a BTB based on its economic impact content. It fails to classify because countries also export goods already imported (denotes re-export) besides exporting their domestic goods produced within the country (denotes domestic export). It also fails to quantify because, while domestic goods undergo a value-added process within a country, re-exported goods do not. In this context, for the first time, this study attempts to reformulate/reinvestigate new forms of BTBs as production-related BTB, based on domestic export and non-production-related BTB, based on re-export for the USA with Japan. Empirical findings confirm the necessity and cruciality of the proposed methodology in this study. JEL Codes: F10, F14
本研究旨在揭示一个国家需要重新制定新的双边贸易平衡(BTBs)形式,而不是传统的双边贸易平衡。这是因为传统的以出口总额为基础并定义为出口总额/进口总额之比的贸易顺差比率,无法根据其经济影响内容对贸易顺差进行分类和量化。由于各国除了出口其国内生产的商品(国内出口)外,还出口已经进口的商品(表示再出口),因此无法进行分类。它也无法量化,因为虽然国内商品在一个国家内经历了增值过程,但再出口商品却没有。在此背景下,本研究首次尝试重新制定/重新研究生产相关的细菌性结核,基于国内出口和非生产相关的细菌性结核,基于美国对日本的转口。实证结果证实了本研究提出的方法论的必要性和重要性。JEL代码:F10, F14
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the Bilateral Trade in the Region: Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model 俄乌战争对该地区双边贸易的影响:来自面板重力模型的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-22 DOI: 10.1177/00157325231191891
Özge Korkmaz, Semih Karacan
This study aims to investigate the regional impact of the sanctions imposed by the West on the Russian Federation. To this end, we used two samples to estimate the determinants of bilateral trade. The first dataset belongs to ex-Soviet countries between 1992 and 2019, and the second dataset expands it with bilateral trade data relating to China, Iran and Turkey. The results reveal that there are structural differences between the two samples regarding the determinants of the bilateral trade flows and sanctions that have spillover effects in the region. We also projected our findings to the recent events. JEL Codes: C33, F13, F14
本研究旨在调查西方制裁对俄罗斯联邦的区域影响。为此,我们使用两个样本来估计双边贸易的决定因素。第一个数据集属于1992年至2019年的前苏联国家,第二个数据集扩展了与中国、伊朗和土耳其有关的双边贸易数据。结果表明,在双边贸易流动的决定因素和对该地区具有溢出效应的制裁方面,两个样本之间存在结构性差异。我们还把我们的发现与最近发生的事件联系起来。JEL代码:C33, F13, F14
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Systematic Review of the Empirical Studies 外国直接投资的决定因素:实证研究的系统回顾
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.1177/00157325231158846
Mohammad Shaiful Islam, Ahmed Beloucif
A growing body of literature is concerned with the factors that determine the inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) into a host country. However, hardly any literature has been carried out to provide a systematic literature review (SLR) of the FDI determinants. An SLR methodology underlies this conceptual paper to evaluate and categorise a literature survey of 112 empirical studies published from 2000 to 2018. The result indicates that the size of the host market is the most robust determinant, followed by trade openness, infrastructure quality, labour cost, macroeconomic stability, human capital, and the growth prospect of the host country. Market size is highly significant in virtually all studies. This partly reflects the fact that most of the world’s FDI are market-seeking. This study provides a clear understanding of the scope of the research in the field of FDI determinants as the practical implication for future research. JEL Code: F14
越来越多的文献关注决定外国直接投资流入东道国的因素。然而,几乎没有任何文献进行了系统的文献综述(SLR)的外国直接投资的决定因素。这篇概念性论文以单反方法为基础,对2000年至2018年发表的112项实证研究的文献调查进行了评估和分类。结果表明,东道国市场的规模是最强大的决定因素,其次是贸易开放程度、基础设施质量、劳动力成本、宏观经济稳定性、人力资本和东道国的增长前景。在几乎所有的研究中,市场规模都是非常重要的。这在一定程度上反映了这样一个事实:世界上大多数外国直接投资都是寻求市场的。本研究对FDI决定因素领域的研究范围提供了清晰的认识,为未来的研究提供了实践启示。JEL代码:F14
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引用次数: 0
Impact of SADC Free Trade Area on Southern Africa’s Intra-Trade Performance: Implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area 南部非洲发展共同体自由贸易区对南部非洲内部贸易绩效的影响:对非洲大陆自由贸易区的启示
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-02 DOI: 10.1177/00157325231184669
B. Moyo
The main raison d’être of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Free Trade Area (FTA) implemented in 2012 was to inter alia boost intra-regional trade and promote regional trade integration. The low levels of growth and mixed trade performance of countries, eight years after, raises questions about the success of the FTA. The success of the recently launched African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) partly hinges on the performance of the regional FTAs like the SADC FTA. This is because it is unlikely that the African Union through the AfCFTA will achieve continentally what regional economic communities failed to achieve at the regional level. We use a gravity model as well as the difference in difference estimator to evaluate, ex-post, the impact of the SADC FTA on total and sectoral intra-exports. Using data from 2001 to 2019, results show that the full implementation of the SADC FTA did not significantly affect export performance with the export difference between countries that joined the FTA and those that did not being insignificant. These results do not change even when using sectoral exports. JEL Codes: F1, F13, F14, F15
2012年实施的南部非洲发展共同体(SADC)自由贸易区(FTA)的主要目的是促进区域内贸易和促进区域贸易一体化。8年后,各国经济增长缓慢,贸易表现参差不齐,这让人们对自贸协定的成功产生了疑问。最近启动的非洲大陆自由贸易区(AfCFTA)的成功在一定程度上取决于南部非洲发展共同体自由贸易区等区域自由贸易区的表现。这是因为非洲联盟不太可能通过非洲大陆自由贸易区实现区域经济共同体在区域层面未能实现的目标。我们使用重力模型以及差异估计器来评估南共体自由贸易协定对总出口和部门内部出口的影响。利用2001年至2019年的数据,结果表明,南共体自贸协定的全面实施对出口绩效没有显著影响,加入自贸协定的国家与未加入自贸协定的国家之间的出口差异不显著。即使使用行业出口,这些结果也不会改变。JEL代码:F1, F13, F14, F15
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引用次数: 0
How Can Tariff Elimination and Trade Facilitation Affect East African Economies? 关税取消和贸易便利化如何影响东非经济?
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-14 DOI: 10.1177/00157325231165643
Pousseni Bakouan, M. Diarra, I. Ouedraogo
The article assesses the potential economic implications of tariff elimination and trade facilitation (TF) in the context of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement for East Africa. Using the most recent GTAP database and computable general equilibrium model, the article provides additional evidence on the socio-economic benefits of the ongoing trade integration process. The results show that the elimination of tariffs would improve economic dynamism in most sectors of activity and household consumption. However, the elimination of tariffs alone would not be sufficient to achieve a significant level of trade integration. From a policy perspective, although a gradual implementation of tariff elimination is more beneficial for the zone, the results highlight the relevance of combining tariff elimination with complementary TF reforms. These reforms amplify the socio-economic gain from the AfCFTA. JEL Codes: F13, F14, F15, E23, C68
本文评估了在东非非洲大陆自由贸易区(AfCFTA)协议的背景下,关税消除和贸易便利化(TF)的潜在经济影响。利用最新的GTAP数据库和可计算的一般均衡模型,本文提供了有关正在进行的贸易一体化进程的社会经济效益的额外证据。结果表明,取消关税将改善大多数经济活动部门和家庭消费的经济活力。然而,单靠取消关税并不足以实现相当程度的贸易一体化。从政策角度看,虽然逐步实施关税取消对自贸区更有利,但研究结果突出了关税取消与配套关税改革相结合的相关性。这些改革扩大了非洲自贸协定带来的社会经济收益。JEL代码:F13、F14、F15、E23、C68
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引用次数: 0
The Potential Impact of Tariff Liberalisation on India’s Automobile Industry Global Value Chain Trade: Evidence From an Economy-Wide Model 关税自由化对印度汽车产业全球价值链贸易的潜在影响:来自全经济模型的证据
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-07-19 DOI: 10.1177/00157325231161931
Badri Narayanan G., R. Sen, S. Srivastava
The impact of tariff barriers affecting participation in global value chain (GVC) trade has received attention in recent literature. However, the empirical evidence in the context of mega-regional trade agreements, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), from which India opted out recently, remains non-existent. Our study contributes to the empirical literature by undertaking an economy-wide modelling exercise, augmenting it to the automobile sector trade in GVC goods in the Indian context. We conduct two policy simulations with an aim to analyse how India’s auto-industry and auto-parts trade, involving forward and backward linkages in GVCs, have been affected by its decision to opt out of RCEP compared to a hypothetical scenario of not doing so. Our results suggest that a potential RCEP membership would have created net trade in both the finished automobile and intermediate auto-parts sectors, although imports would exceed exports. Further, we infer that both backward linkages and forward linkages in this industry will be adversely affected by opting out of RCEP, as there is export diversion in the auto-parts sectors globally, with India facing terms of trade losses due to higher import prices. This informs policymakers that developing domestic resilience and improving productivity are critical for India to improve its long-run export competitiveness while contemplating future trade agreements, including those with RCEP members. JEL Codes: F15, F61, O53
关税壁垒对参与全球价值链(GVC)贸易的影响在最近的文献中得到了关注。然而,在大型区域贸易协定的背景下,如印度最近退出的区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP),经验证据仍然不存在。我们的研究通过进行经济范围的建模练习,将其扩展到印度背景下全球价值链商品的汽车行业贸易,从而为实证文献做出了贡献。我们进行了两次政策模拟,目的是分析印度的汽车工业和汽车零部件贸易(涉及全球价值链的前向和后向联系)如何受到其选择退出RCEP的决定的影响,并与不这样做的假设情况进行比较。我们的研究结果表明,潜在的RCEP成员资格将在成品汽车和中间汽车零部件部门创造净贸易,尽管进口将超过出口。此外,我们推断,退出RCEP将对该行业的后向联系和前向联系产生不利影响,因为全球汽车零部件行业存在出口转移,印度因进口价格上涨而面临贸易损失。这告诉政策制定者,在考虑未来的贸易协定(包括与RCEP成员国的贸易协定)时,发展国内弹性和提高生产率对印度提高长期出口竞争力至关重要。JEL代码:F15, F61, O53
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引用次数: 1
Dynamics of Price Transmission: Evidence from India’s Import Basket 价格传导的动态:来自印度进口篮子的证据
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-07-07 DOI: 10.1177/00157325231158848
Sonam Choudhry, Abhinav Narayanan, Anshul
This article uses granular information on trade flows between India and its trading-partners to estimate the impact of price changes on the import basket in general. We first investigate whether a change in world prices at the commodity level triggers a reorganisation of trading partners. Second, we examine the degree of transmission of world prices to Indian import prices. Lastly, we look at whether India imports less from countries that charge a higher markup on a product. Our results indicate that a change in world prices does not significantly change the set of importing countries. Using the country–product level price changes, we find a higher degree of transmission as compared to the world prices. This provides an important policy implication. In order to determine how the transmission of world prices to import prices works, we need to pay attention to the product price changes in the partner countries rather than focusing on the world prices. Lastly, we find that India imports less of a particular product on average from a country that charges a higher markup for that product relative to the average export prices charged by that country. JEL Codes: F14, F60, F02, Q27
本文使用印度与其贸易伙伴之间的贸易流动的详细信息来估计价格变化对进口篮子的总体影响。我们首先调查世界商品价格的变化是否会引发贸易伙伴的重组。其次,我们考察了世界价格对印度进口价格的传导程度。最后,我们看看印度是否从产品加价较高的国家进口较少。我们的研究结果表明,世界价格的变化不会显著改变进口国的集合。使用国家产品水平的价格变化,我们发现与世界价格相比,传导程度更高。这提供了一个重要的政策含义。为了确定世界价格对进口价格的传导是如何起作用的,我们需要关注伙伴国的产品价格变化,而不是关注世界价格。最后,我们发现印度从一个国家进口的特定产品平均较少,而这个国家对该产品收取的加价相对于该国的平均出口价格较高。JEL代码:F14, F60, F02, Q27
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of Electricity Trade Partners Based on the Network Theory: The West Asia Community 基于网络理论的电力贸易伙伴预测——以西亚共同体为例
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-06-26 DOI: 10.1177/00157325231166242
Leila Mirtajadini, Shamsollah Shirin Bakhsh, M. Mousavi, Kioumars Heydari, S. Yousefvand
This study aims to predict electricity cross-border trade partners based on the network theory and to investigate the position and importance of West Asia community in the global electricity trade network. For this purpose, the global network is constructed to examine the role of each node in the network for the time period of 2010–2018. Different communities are identified to proceed with the network analysis. The innovative analysis is link prediction to forecast missing links from the network. The results suggest more interconnectedness among community members, especially Iran, Turkey and Russia, which are the prominent nodes in the community. The link prediction outcomes offer the most probable missing links from the community and lead us to select the common neighbour approach as the most efficient method. JEL Codes: D85, Q27
本研究旨在基于网络理论对电力跨境贸易伙伴进行预测,探讨西亚社区在全球电力贸易网络中的地位和重要性。为此,构建了全球网络,以检查2010-2018年期间网络中每个节点的作用。确定了不同的社区以进行网络分析。创新的分析是链路预测,以预测网络中的缺失链路。结果表明,社区成员之间的相互联系更加紧密,特别是伊朗、土耳其和俄罗斯,它们是社区的突出节点。链路预测结果提供了社区中最可能缺失的链路,并引导我们选择共同邻居方法作为最有效的方法。JEL代码:D85, Q27
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Wage Inequality and Skill Formation: A Theoretical Analysis 贸易自由化对工资不平等和技能形成影响的理论分析
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.1177/00157325231166243
P. Dutta, N. Saha
We consider a small open economy with three sector and four factors. Agricultural sector produces output with unskilled labour and land. Manufacturing sector and skill formation sector produce output with skilled labour and capital. Skill formation sector transforms the unskilled labour into skilled labour. We also consider an extended version of this model where agricultural sector also uses capital. So capital is mobile between all three sectors. Both change in the price of manufacturing sector and capital stock alter skill formation in a similar direction. But change in the price of manufacturing sector leads to change in skilled–unskilled wage inequality in the same direction whereas due to change in capital stock it changes in opposite direction. In our extended study, where capital is mobile between all three sectors, the results of the basic model are unaltered. JEL Codes: F13, J31
我们考虑的是一个三部门四要素的小型开放型经济。农业部门以非熟练劳动力和土地生产产出。制造业和技能培训部门以熟练劳动力和资本生产产出。技能形成部门将非熟练劳动力转化为熟练劳动力。我们还考虑了这一模式的扩展版本,其中农业部门也使用资本。因此,资本在这三个部门之间是流动的。制造业价格和资本存量的变化对技能形成的影响方向相似。但是,制造业价格的变化导致熟练工人和非熟练工人工资不平等朝同一方向变化,而由于资本存量的变化,它朝相反方向变化。在我们的扩展研究中,当资本在所有三个部门之间流动时,基本模型的结果没有改变。JEL代码:F13, J31
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Foreign Trade Review
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