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Current and Capital Account Dynamics in India: An Empirical Analysis of the Post-Reform Period 印度的经常账户和资本账户动态:改革后时期的实证分析
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2021-09-17 DOI: 10.1177/00157325211037101
Tanveer Ahmad Khan
This article analyses the dynamics between current account (CA) and capital account in post-liberalisation India. Contemporaneous occurrence of CA deficit along with capital account surplus suggests the possible causal relationship between the two accounts. The theoretical debate around capital account liberalisation (KAL) is developed with the intention to lend support to empirical results for policy formulation. The analysis of arguments for and against KAL liberates us in interpreting the empirical results. Within the framework of KAL, this article proceeds to estimate the relationship between current and capital account. A set of econometric tests are performed on an Indian quarterly data over the period from 1996 to 2018. Econometric analysis reveals that capital account affects CA negatively. Short-run capital and debt flow also affect CA negatively, while foreign direct investment (FDI) affects it positively. We find debt flow to be an important factor, contributing to CA imbalance. Such dynamics is critical for any decision about KAL. From the analysis, it is observed that India needs to encourage FDI, while maintaining strict control over short-term capital, which is highly disruptive, and proceed cautiously towards full KAL. JEL Codes: C32, F21, F32
本文分析了自由化后的印度经常账户和资本账户之间的动态关系。经常账户赤字与资本账户盈余同时出现,表明这两个账户之间可能存在因果关系。围绕资本账户自由化(KAL)的理论辩论旨在为政策制定的实证结果提供支持。对支持和反对KAL论点的分析解放了我们对实证结果的解释。在KAL的框架下,本文开始估计经常项目和资本项目之间的关系。对1996年至2018年期间的印度季度数据进行了一组计量经济学测试。计量经济分析表明,资本账户对企业绩效有负向影响。短期资本和债务流动对CA也有负向影响,而外国直接投资(FDI)对CA有正向影响。我们发现债务流动是导致CA失衡的重要因素。这种动态对任何有关大韩航空的决定都至关重要。从分析中可以看出,印度需要鼓励外国直接投资,同时保持对短期资本的严格控制,这是高度破坏性的,并谨慎地走向全面的大韩航空。JEL代码:C32, F21, F32
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引用次数: 0
Anatomizing India’s Presence in Automotive Global Value Chains 剖析印度在汽车全球价值链中的存在
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2021-09-13 DOI: 10.1177/00157325211039909
Ankita Dash, R. Chanda
Global value chains (GVCs) are the modus operandi of contemporary international trade and production. However, the operational underpinnings of what facilitates or hinders participation of firms in their respective sectoral GVCs are surprisingly understudied. This article attempts to discover the potential factors—ranging from regulatory, institutional, technological, trade-related and financial to sectoral, and input-related elements—affecting GVC participation of automotive firms in India. A firm-level field survey was undertaken to better understand firms’ perceptions regarding these factors. The findings were analysed using principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM), which revealed that certain policies such as state government initiatives and the Competition Act, as well as trade facilitation measures like standardisation of procedural requirements and trade agreements were the most significant factors aiding firms’ participation in automotive GVCs, while institutional, technological and input-related aspects were deterrents to such participation. Our findings have important implications for policymaking in the country for encouraging greater GVC participation of firms, especially small and medium enterprises. JEL Codes: F14, F6
全球价值链(GVCs)是当代国际贸易和生产的运作方式。然而,促进或阻碍企业参与各自行业全球价值链的操作基础却令人惊讶地没有得到充分研究。本文试图发现影响印度汽车公司参与全球价值链的潜在因素,包括监管、制度、技术、贸易相关和金融、部门和投入相关因素。为了更好地了解公司对这些因素的看法,进行了公司层面的实地调查。利用主成分分析(PCA)和偏最小二乘结构方程模型(PLS-SEM)对研究结果进行了分析,结果表明,某些政策(如州政府举措和《竞争法》),以及贸易便利化措施(如程序要求和贸易协定的标准化)是帮助企业参与汽车全球价值链的最重要因素,而制度因素;技术和与投入有关的方面阻碍了这种参与。我们的研究结果对我国鼓励企业(尤其是中小企业)更多地参与全球价值链的政策制定具有重要意义。JEL代码:F14, F6
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引用次数: 1
Evaluating the Effect of Digital Transformation on Improvement of Service Trade in West Africa 数字化转型对改善西非服务贸易的影响评估
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2021-08-14 DOI: 10.1177/00157325211032021
Nnanna P. Azu, Philip A. Nwauko
Digital revolution is instrumental to the wave of globalisation and transformation of the global economy. But the pace of digital transformation and service trade is low in the West African region. This article investigates the effect of digital transformation on the development of service trade in the region. This research captured digitisation in two standpoints: internet penetration rate and mobile subscription rate. The Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test affirms that the model is appropriate for panel autoregressive distributed lag estimation method. Adopting pool mean group estimator, the results attest for the existence of cointegrations in the model. The estimations reveal that the effect of digitisation on service trade is a long-run phenomenon. While the result is robust with export, it is not consistent with import. The long-run positive impact of digitisation on service export ranges from 0.087% to 0.159%, depending on the proxy for digitisation. The overall short-run effect is not statistically significant in export and not robust in import. It is reportedly consistent in some countries but not robust with some others. The region needs to rally in adopting and adapting to the new face of technology to improve service trade. JEL Codes: C23, F14, O33
数字革命是推动全球化浪潮和全球经济转型的重要力量。但西非地区数字化转型和服务贸易的步伐较慢。本文研究了数字化转型对该地区服务贸易发展的影响。这项研究从两个角度考察了数字化:互联网普及率和移动订阅率。Im-Pesaran-Shin单位根检验证实了该模型适用于面板自回归分布滞后估计方法。采用池均值群估计,结果证明了模型中存在协整。研究表明,数字化对服务贸易的影响是一种长期现象。虽然出口的结果是稳健的,但进口的结果并不一致。数字化对服务出口的长期积极影响在0.087%至0.159%之间,取决于数字化的代理。总体短期效应在出口方面不显著,在进口方面也不强劲。据报道,它在一些国家是一致的,但在其他一些国家并不强大。本地区需要团结一致,接受和适应技术的新面貌,提高服务贸易水平。JEL代码:C23, F14, O33
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引用次数: 7
Tracking Greenfield FDI During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis by Sectors 2019冠状病毒病大流行期间跟踪绿地外国直接投资:按部门分析
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2021-08-12 DOI: 10.1177/00157325211031317
Nadia Doytch, N. Yonzan, K. Reddy, F. De Beule
We study the trends and fluctuations in greenfield foreign direct investment (GFDI) during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis on a global scale. We analyse the data of a data set of GFDI provided by fDi Markets (Financial Times) to understand the contraction of GFDI during the first three quarters of the year 2020, taking into account the sector of the investment and the host and home country. We analyse both the long-run trends and the quarter-over-quarter changes in GFDI to capture its fluctuations before and during the first wave of the COVID-19 crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. Our findings cast light on which countries’ and industries’ GFDIs were most affected by the pandemic crisis and draw a comparison to the global financial crisis. To our surprise, many services industries have shown unexpected resilience of GFDI due to the flexibility for remote work. On the contrary, GFDI in the manufacturing industries, as well as the extractives and the utility industries, has shown a dramatic decline during the pandemic. These contractions raise questions of stability and resilience of the global supply chains these industries are a part of. JEL Codes: F21
我们研究了全球范围内新冠肺炎大流行危机第一波期间绿地外国直接投资(GFDI)的趋势和波动。我们分析了《外国直接投资市场》(《金融时报》)提供的一组全球直接投资数据,以了解2020年前三季度全球直接投资的收缩情况,同时考虑到投资行业、东道国和母国。我们分析了全球直接投资的长期趋势和季度环比变化,以捕捉其在2019冠状病毒病危机和2008年全球金融危机第一波之前和期间的波动。我们的研究结果揭示了哪些国家和行业的gfdi受疫情危机影响最大,并与全球金融危机进行了比较。令我们惊讶的是,由于远程工作的灵活性,许多服务行业都表现出了意想不到的GFDI弹性。相反,制造业以及采掘业和公用事业行业的全球直接投资在大流行病期间急剧下降。这些行业所处的全球供应链的稳定性和弹性受到了质疑。JEL代码:F21
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引用次数: 10
Book review: Matthew C. Klein and Michael Pettis, Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace 书评:马修·c·克莱因和迈克尔·佩蒂斯,《贸易战是阶级战争:日益加剧的不平等如何扭曲全球经济并威胁国际和平》
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/00157325211010568
Oliver Braunschweig
Matthew C. Klein and Michael Pettis, Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace. Yale University Press, 2020, US$28, 269 pp., ISBN 978-0-300-24417-5.
马修·克莱因和迈克尔·佩蒂斯,《贸易战是阶级战争:日益加剧的不平等如何扭曲全球经济并威胁国际和平》。耶鲁大学出版社,2020年,28美元,269页,ISBN 978-0-300-24417-5。
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引用次数: 2
Decomposing International Trade in Commercial Services 商业服务中的国际贸易分解
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2021-07-20 DOI: 10.1177/00157325211018890
H. Roelfsema, C. Findlay, Xianjia Ye
To delve deeper into the rise of trade in commercial services as the most important determinant of the recent increase in digital trade, this article offers a decomposition of international service trade using the latest release of the Inter-Country Input–Output (ICIO) tables. The analysis decomposes international service trade into a split between (a) direct services exports and services embodied in goods, (b) advanced economies and the major emerging markets, and (c) the major commercial services industries. We show that overall direct service exports have become more important relative to services embodied in goods, especially in advanced economies (the ‘cross-border’ effect). Further, we show that for emerging markets, the rise of the exports of services comes from the increase in volume of export of goods, which embed services and not because of an increased share of services embodied in the domestic value of exported goods (the ‘embodied volume’ effect). Finally, we show that the increase in services trade can be attributed to the increase in traded information technology (IT) services and not so much to that in financial and business services that are increasingly traded digitally across borders (the ‘plain vanilla digitalisation’ effect). JEL Codes: F14, F15, G20
为了更深入地探讨商业服务贸易的崛起是最近数字贸易增长的最重要决定因素,本文使用最新发布的国家间投入产出(ICIO)表对国际服务贸易进行了分解。该分析将国际服务贸易分为(a)直接服务出口和以货物形式体现的服务,(b)发达经济体和主要新兴市场,以及(c)主要商业服务行业。我们表明,总体直接服务出口相对于商品中体现的服务变得更加重要,特别是在发达经济体(“跨境”效应)。此外,我们表明,对于新兴市场,服务出口的增长来自商品出口量的增加,其中包含服务,而不是因为出口商品的国内价值中包含的服务份额的增加(“包含量”效应)。最后,我们表明,服务贸易的增长可以归因于贸易信息技术(IT)服务的增长,而不是金融和商业服务的增长,这些服务的跨境贸易日益数字化(“普通数字化”效应)。JEL代码:F14, F15, G20
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引用次数: 1
Impact of India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: An Assessment from the Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects 印度-东盟自由贸易协定的影响:从贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应看
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2021-07-08 DOI: 10.1177/00157325211021503
L. Singh
This article investigates the impacts on the India–Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Free Trade Agreement (IAFTA) on trade creation and trade diversion. The gravity model is employed, where multilateral resistance terms are included. A panel data set of 45 countries that included India, ASEAN-10 nations and India’s top 34 trading partners in 2018 were used for the period from 1996 to 2018. The article explored that IAFTA leads to a trade creation in total bilateral trade in terms of exports and imports. The analysis further explored that the import creation effect was higher than that of the export creation effect.
本文考察了印度-东盟自由贸易协定(IAFTA)对贸易创造和贸易转移的影响。采用重力模型,其中多边阻力项包括在内。在1996年至2018年期间,使用了45个国家的面板数据集,其中包括印度、东盟10国和印度在2018年的前34个贸易伙伴。文章探讨了IAFTA在出口和进口方面导致双边贸易总额的贸易创造。分析进一步发现,进口创造效应高于出口创造效应。
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引用次数: 9
The Causal Relationship Between Foreign Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Commonwealth Independent States 外债与经济增长的因果关系:来自英联邦独立国家的证据
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2021-07-08 DOI: 10.1177/00157325211018329
N. Yasar
This study investigates the relationship between external borrowing and economic growth in the Commonwealth Independent States during the period 1995–2018. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is employed to determine the co-integration relationship among the series and then vector error correction model (VECM) is used to analyse the causality between external debt and income. The obtained results suggest that there is a negative long-term unidirectional causal relationship running from external debt to GDP presenting a strong evidence of existence of debt overhang hypothesis. The possible reasons for this unidirectional causal relationship can be explained by poor management of provided financial resources and incomplete governance in economic transition process along with structural rigidities and immature institutions in these countries which, in the long term, resulted in insufficient capital charged to service external debt. The policymakers in these post-Soviet countries should not use foreign loans to capitalise the deficits in the economies; instead, they should be more determined in employing these funds in the areas that will create national value-added production and, thus, future income. JEL Classification: C10, F34, H63
本研究调查了1995-2018年期间英联邦独立国家外部借款与经济增长之间的关系。采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型确定序列之间的协整关系,然后采用向量误差修正模型(VECM)分析外债与收入之间的因果关系。所得结果表明,外债与GDP之间存在负的长期单向因果关系,这有力地证明了债务过剩假说的存在。造成这种单向因果关系的可能原因可以解释为对所提供的财政资源管理不善和经济转型过程中的治理不完善,以及这些国家的结构僵化和机构不成熟,从长远来看,这些国家的结构僵化和机构不成熟导致偿还外债的资本不足。这些后苏联国家的政策制定者不应利用外国贷款将其经济赤字资本化;相反,它们应该更坚定地将这些资金用于能够创造国家增值生产,从而创造未来收入的领域。JEL分类:C10, F34, H63
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引用次数: 5
Global Value Chains in India and Their Impact on Gender Wage Disparity 印度的全球价值链及其对性别工资差距的影响
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2021-07-08 DOI: 10.1177/00157325211024003
Kaveri Deb
Trade across countries in the world has assumed a new dimension with the emergence of global value chains (GVCs). GVCs are associated with trade in intermediate parts and components being processed and assembled in multiple countries. The current article analyses the impact of India’s participation in GVCs on the wage gap between male and female workers. Dearth of studies exploring this issue in the Indian context is a motivation for the current research. India’s participation in GVCs is measured by two indicators—domestic value added in intermediate goods as a share of gross exports (DVAXINT) and foreign value-added share of gross exports (FVAX). Both pooled and panel regression analyses based on secondary sources of data suggest that none of the indicators of GVCs have been helpful in improving the relative wages of female workers in India. JEL Codes: C33, F14, F16, F23
随着全球价值链的出现,世界各国之间的贸易呈现出一个新的维度。全球价值链与在多个国家加工和组装的中间零部件贸易有关。本文分析了印度参与全球价值链对男女工人工资差距的影响。在印度背景下探讨这一问题的研究的缺乏是当前研究的动机。印度参与全球价值链的程度由两个指标衡量——国内中间产品的增加值占出口总额的份额(DVAXINT)和国外出口总额的增加值份额(FVAX)。基于二手数据来源的汇总和面板回归分析表明,全球价值链的任何指标都无助于提高印度女性工人的相对工资。JEL代码:C33, F14, F16, F23
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引用次数: 1
Free Trade vis-à-vis Morality: Revisiting the Public-Morals Exception Clause in the World Trade Organization 自由贸易对-à-vis道德:重新审视世界贸易组织的公共道德例外条款
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2021-06-14 DOI: 10.1177/00157325211015468
Swargodeep Sarkar
The most sanctified obligation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is the promotion and facilitation of international trade and liberalisation of the world economy. Although WTO members are committed to the WTO principle of free flow of goods and services among its members, the WTO permits its members to retain certain regulatory powers under its system to impose trade-restrictive measures based on certain exceptions, like, among other things, public morality under Article XX(a) of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT, 1994). Nevertheless, the question remains: what is public morality for a WTO member, and how far may this clause be invoked in defence of adopting trade-restrictive measures? Recently, the WTO panel on the US tariff case revived the long-standing debate on international trade versus public morality. Is a WTO member free to choose any trade-restrictive measure under the cloak of public morality? Then, what mechanism has the WTO panel/AB (Appellate Body) envisaged to check WTO members from adopting any trade-restrictive measure based on public morals? This article tries to answer these questions by analysing previous WTO disputes related to trade and morality. Against this background, this article looks back at the history of the public-morals exception clause, revisits previous WTO case laws on the public-morals exception and tries to ascertain the precise meaning of public morality—how the WTO Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) checks and balances two conflicting principles, that is, the right to regulate and the principle of free trade—and whether WTO has successfully developed a coherent jurisprudential approach to deal with contradictory interests, that is, trade versus morality. JEL Codes: F, F1, F13
世界贸易组织(WTO)最神圣的义务是促进和便利国际贸易和世界经济的自由化。尽管世贸组织成员致力于其成员之间货物和服务自由流动的世贸组织原则,但世贸组织允许其成员在其体系下保留一定的监管权力,以基于某些例外实施贸易限制措施,例如,除其他外,关税与贸易总协定(GATT, 1994)第20 (a)条规定的公共道德。然而,问题依然存在:对于一个WTO成员国来说,什么是公共道德?在为采取贸易限制措施辩护时,这一条款可以援引到什么程度?最近,世贸组织针对美国关税案的专家组重启了长期以来关于国际贸易与公共道德的辩论。WTO成员是否可以在公共道德的外衣下自由选择任何贸易限制措施?那么,世贸组织专家组/上诉机构设想了什么机制来阻止世贸组织成员基于公共道德采取任何贸易限制措施?本文试图通过对以往WTO贸易与道德争端的分析来回答这些问题。在此背景下,本文回顾了公共道德例外条款的历史,回顾了以往WTO关于公共道德例外的判例法,并试图确定公共道德的确切含义——WTO争端解决机构(DSB)如何制衡两个相互冲突的原则,即管制权和自由贸易原则,以及WTO是否成功地发展了一套协调一致的法理方法来处理利益冲突。也就是说,贸易对抗道德。JEL代码:F, F1, F13
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Foreign Trade Review
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