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Wage Cyclicality and Labor Market Sorting 工资周期性与劳动力市场排序
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
American Economic Review-Insights
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210161
A. Figueiredo
This paper uses a measure of skill mismatch to separate wage flexibility from confounding variation in wages driven by differences in job quality over the business cycle. I first show that the high cyclicality of job switchers' wages goes beyond cyclical movements in skill mismatch. Then I uncover large differences in wage cyclicality across the skill mismatch distribution. Among incumbent workers, wages are acyclical in good matches but procyclical in poor matches, in particular for overqualified workers. (JEL E32, J24, J31, J41)
本文使用技能不匹配的衡量标准，将工资灵活性与商业周期内工作质量差异导致的工资混杂变化区分开来。我首先表明，跳槽者工资的高周期性超出了技能错配的周期性波动。然后，我发现了技能错配分布中工资周期性的巨大差异。在在职工人中，工资在好的匹配中是非周期性的，但在差的匹配中却是顺周期的，尤其是对于资历过高的工人。（JEL E32，J24，J31，J41）
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引用次数: 2
Getting Permission 获取权限
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
American Economic Review-Insights
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210494
Peicong Hu, J. Sobel
A manager has access to expert advisers. The manager selects at most one project and can implement it only if one expert provides support. The game in which the manager consults experts simultaneously typically has multiple equilibria, including one in which at least one expert supports the manager's favorite project. Only one outcome, the experts' most preferred equilibrium outcome, survives iterated deletion of weakly dominated strategies. We show that no sequential procedure can perform better for the manager than the experts' most preferred equilibrium and exhibit a sequential protocol that does as well. (JEL C72, D23, D82)
经理可以接触到专家顾问。经理最多选择一个项目，只有在一位专家提供支持的情况下才能实施。经理同时咨询专家的游戏通常有多个平衡点，其中至少有一个专家支持经理最喜欢的项目。只有一个结果，专家们最喜欢的平衡结果，在弱支配策略的迭代删除中幸存下来。我们证明，对于管理者来说，没有哪个顺序程序能比专家最喜欢的平衡更有效，并展示了一个同样有效的顺序协议。（JEL C72，D23，D82）
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引用次数: 0
The Limits of Multiproduct Price Discrimination 多产品价格歧视的限度
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
American Economic Review-Insights
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210426
Nima Haghpanah, Ron Siegel
We consider a multiproduct seller who has access to information about consumer preferences that he can use for second- and third-degree price discrimination. We characterize markets for which such information can lead to the efficient allocation with consumers obtaining the entire surplus gain relative to the profit-maximizing allocation without the additional information. This benchmark is achievable for all markets with a given set of consumer types if and only if it is optimal for the seller to offer only the best product in each market. Analogous results characterize when the “surplus triangle” of Bergemann, Brooks, and Morris (2015) is achievable. (JEL D11, D21, D42, D83)
我们考虑的是一个多产品卖家，他可以获得有关消费者偏好的信息，这些信息可以用于二级和三级价格歧视。我们描述了这样的信息可以导致有效分配的市场，消费者在没有额外信息的情况下获得相对于利润最大化分配的全部剩余收益。当且仅当卖家在每个市场上只提供最好的产品是最优的时，对于具有给定消费者类型的所有市场来说，这个基准都是可以实现的。类似的结果描述了Bergemann、Brooks和Morris（2015）的“盈余三角形”何时可以实现。（JEL D11，D21，D42，D83）
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引用次数: 5
Rapid Dynamics of Top Wealth Shares and Self-Made Fortunes: What Is the Role of Family Firms? 顶级财富份额和白手起家财富的快速动态:家族企业的角色是什么?
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
American Economic Review-Insights
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210560
A. Atkeson, Magnus Irie
We derive an analytical link between the fast dynamics of inequality at the top of the wealth distribution and the prevalence of newly created fortunes. Specifically, in the context of a random growth model of wealth accumulation, the shape of the top of the wealth distribution changes rapidly only if the pace with which new fortunes are created is fast. Quantitatively, the decision of a few families to bear a large amount of idiosyncratic risk in the form of family firms is crucial in accounting for both the prevalence of new fortunes and the dynamics of top wealth inequality. (JEL D22, D31, G32, L25)
我们得出了财富分配顶端不平等的快速动态与新创造财富的普遍性之间的分析联系。具体而言，在财富积累的随机增长模型的背景下，只有在创造新财富的速度很快的情况下，财富分布顶部的形状才会迅速变化。从数量上讲，少数家族决定以家族企业的形式承担大量特殊风险，这对于解释新财富的普遍性和最高财富不平等的动态至关重要。（JEL D22，D31，G32，L25）
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引用次数: 2
Polarization, Valence, and Policy Competition 极化、价态与政策竞争
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
American Economic Review-Insights
Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210169
Peter Buisseret, Richard Van Weelden
We study an election between two office-seeking candidates who are polarized along a partisan issue dimension when one candidate has a valence advantage. The candidates compete by choosing policy on a second issue dimension about which voters’ preferences are uncertain. Existing work predicts that the low-valence candidate “gambles for resurrection” by adopting non-centrist policies in order to differentiate from a stronger opponent. We show that this prediction is reversed in a highly polarized environment: the strong candidate chooses policies less aligned with the electorate but nonetheless wins the election with higher probability. (JEL D11, D72)
我们研究了两个寻求职位的候选人之间的选举，当一个候选人具有效价优势时，他们在党派问题维度上两极分化。候选人通过在选民的偏好不确定的第二个问题维度上选择政策来竞争。现有的研究预测，低价候选人通过采取非中间派政策来“赌复活”，以区别于更强大的对手。我们的研究表明，在高度两极分化的环境中，这种预测是相反的:强势候选人选择的政策与选民的立场不太一致，但仍然有更高的概率赢得选举。(凝胶11，凝胶72)
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引用次数: 4
Optimal Information Disclosure in Classic Auctions 经典拍卖中的最优信息披露
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
American Economic Review-Insights
Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210504
D. Bergemann, T. Heumann, S. Morris, Constantine S. Sorokin, Eyal Winter
We characterize the revenue-maximizing information structure in the second-price auction. The seller faces a trade-off: more information improves the efficiency of the allocation but creates higher information rents for bidders. The information disclosure policy that maximizes the revenue of the seller is to fully reveal low values (where competition is high) but to pool high values (where competition is low). The size of the pool is determined by a critical quantile that is independent of the distribution of values and only dependent on the number of bidders. We discuss how this policy provides a rationale for conflation in digital advertising. (JEL D44, D82, D83, M37)
我们刻画了二级价格拍卖中收益最大化的信息结构。卖方面临着一种权衡:更多的信息提高了分配效率，但给竞标者带来了更高的信息租金。使卖方收益最大化的信息披露政策是充分披露低值(竞争高的地方)，而集中披露低值(竞争低的地方)。池的大小由一个关键分位数决定，该分位数独立于值的分布，仅取决于竞标者的数量。我们将讨论这一政策如何为数字广告的合并提供理由。(凝胶d44, d82, d83, m37)
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引用次数: 4
The Impact of Financial Assistance Programs on Health Care Utilization: Evidence from Kaiser Permanente. 财政援助计划对医疗保健利用的影响:来自凯撒医疗机构的证据。
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
American Economic Review-Insights
Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210515
Alyce Adams, Raymond Kluender, Neale Mahoney, Jinglin Wang, Francis Wong, Wesley Yin

Most hospitals have financial assistance programs for low-income patients. We use administrative data from Kaiser Permanente to study the effects of financial assistance on healthcare utilization. Using a regression discontinuity design based on an income threshold for program eligibility, we find that financial assistance increases the likelihood of an inpatient, ambulatory and emergency department encounter by 3.6 pp (59%), 13.4 pp (20%), and 6.7 pp (53%), respectively, though effects dissipate three quarters after program receipt. Financial assistance also increases the detection and management of treatment-sensitive conditions (e.g., drugs treating diabetes), suggesting financial assistance may increase receipt of high-value care.

大多数医院都有针对低收入患者的财政援助计划。我们使用Kaiser Permanente的行政数据来研究财政援助对医疗保健利用的影响。使用基于项目资格收入阈值的回归不连续设计，我们发现经济援助分别增加了住院、门诊和急诊科的可能性3.6 pp(59%)、13.4 pp(20%)和6.7 pp(53%)，尽管效果在项目收到后消失了四分之三。财政援助还增加了对治疗敏感病症(例如，治疗糖尿病的药物)的发现和管理，这表明财政援助可能增加高价值护理的接受。
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引用次数: 2
Pretest with Caution: Event-Study Estimates after Testing for Parallel Trends 谨慎预测:平行趋势测试后的事件研究估计
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
American Economic Review-Insights
Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210236
J. Roth
This paper discusses two important limitations of the common practice of testing for preexisting differences in trends (“ pre-trends”) when using difference-in-differences and related methods. First, conventional pre-trends tests may have low power. Second, conditioning the analysis on the result of a pretest can distort estimation and inference, potentially exacerbating the bias of point estimates and under-coverage of confidence intervals. I analyze these issues both in theory and in simulations calibrated to a survey of recent papers in leading economics journals, which suggest that these limitations are important in practice. I conclude with practical recommendations for mitigating these issues. (JEL A14, C23, C51)
本文讨论了在使用差异中的差异和相关方法时，测试预先存在的趋势差异(“前趋势”)的常见实践的两个重要限制。首先，传统的趋势前测试可能功耗低。其次，对预测试结果的分析可能会扭曲估计和推断，潜在地加剧点估计的偏差和置信区间的覆盖不足。我从理论和模拟两方面分析了这些问题，并对最近发表在主要经济学期刊上的论文进行了调查，结果表明，这些限制在实践中很重要。最后，我提出了减轻这些问题的实用建议。(jel a14, c23, c51)
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引用次数: 212
Police Force Size and Civilian Race. 警力规模与平民种族。
IF 8.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
American Economic Review-Insights
Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200792
Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily K Weisburst, Morgan C Williams

We report novel empirical estimates of the race-specific effects of larger police forces in the United States. Each additional police officer abates approximately 0.1 homicides. In per capita terms, effects are twice as large for Black versus White victims. Larger police forces also make fewer arrests for serious crimes, with larger reductions for crimes with Black suspects, implying that police force growth does not increase racial disparities among the most serious charges. At the same time, larger police forces make more arrests for low-level "quality-of-life" offenses, with effects that imply a disproportionate impact for Black Americans.

我们报告了对美国扩大警力对特定种族影响的新经验估计。每增加一名警察，凶杀案就会减少约 0.1 起。按人均计算，黑人受害者对白人受害者的影响是白人受害者的两倍。警力增加也会减少对严重犯罪的逮捕，而对黑人犯罪嫌疑人的逮捕则会减少更多，这意味着警力的增加并不会增加最严重指控中的种族差异。与此同时，规模较大的警察部队逮捕了更多的低级 "生活质量 "犯罪，这意味着对美国黑人的影响不成比例。
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引用次数: 0
The Liquidity Sensitivity of Healthcare Consumption: Evidence from Social Security Payments. 医疗保健消费的流动性敏感性：来自社会保障支付的证据。
IF 6.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
American Economic Review-Insights
Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200830
Tal Gross, Timothy J Layton, Daniel Prinz

Insurance is typically viewed as a mechanism for transferring resources from good to bad states. Insurance, however, may also transfer resources from high-liquidity periods to low-liquidity periods. We test for this type of transfer from health insurance by studying the distribution of Social Security checks among Medicare recipients. When Social Security checks are distributed, prescription fills increase by 6-12 percent among recipients who pay small copayments. We find no such pattern among recipients who face no copayments. The results demonstrate that more-complete insurance allows recipients to consume healthcare when they need it rather than only when they have cash.

保险通常被视为一种将资源从好的国家转移到坏的国家的机制。然而，保险也可能将资源从高流动性时期转移到低流动性时期。我们通过研究社会保障支票在医疗保险接受者中的分配来检验这种类型的医疗保险转移。当发放社会保障支票时，在支付小额共同付款的接受者中，处方填充增加了6- 12%。我们在没有共同支付的受助人中没有发现这种模式。研究结果表明，更完整的保险可以让受助人在需要的时候消费医疗保健，而不是只有当他们有现金的时候。
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