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Rapid Dynamics of Top Wealth Shares and Self-Made Fortunes: What Is the Role of Family Firms? 顶级财富份额和白手起家财富的快速动态:家族企业的角色是什么?

IF 8.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review-Insights

Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210560

A. Atkeson, Magnus Irie

We derive an analytical link between the fast dynamics of inequality at the top of the wealth distribution and the prevalence of newly created fortunes. Specifically, in the context of a random growth model of wealth accumulation, the shape of the top of the wealth distribution changes rapidly only if the pace with which new fortunes are created is fast. Quantitatively, the decision of a few families to bear a large amount of idiosyncratic risk in the form of family firms is crucial in accounting for both the prevalence of new fortunes and the dynamics of top wealth inequality. (JEL D22, D31, G32, L25)

我们得出了财富分配顶端不平等的快速动态与新创造财富的普遍性之间的分析联系。具体而言，在财富积累的随机增长模型的背景下，只有在创造新财富的速度很快的情况下，财富分布顶部的形状才会迅速变化。从数量上讲，少数家族决定以家族企业的形式承担大量特殊风险，这对于解释新财富的普遍性和最高财富不平等的动态至关重要。（JEL D22，D31，G32，L25）

引用次数: 2

Polarization, Valence, and Policy Competition 极化、价态与政策竞争

IF 8.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review-Insights

Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210169

Peter Buisseret, Richard Van Weelden

We study an election between two office-seeking candidates who are polarized along a partisan issue dimension when one candidate has a valence advantage. The candidates compete by choosing policy on a second issue dimension about which voters’ preferences are uncertain. Existing work predicts that the low-valence candidate “gambles for resurrection” by adopting non-centrist policies in order to differentiate from a stronger opponent. We show that this prediction is reversed in a highly polarized environment: the strong candidate chooses policies less aligned with the electorate but nonetheless wins the election with higher probability. (JEL D11, D72)

我们研究了两个寻求职位的候选人之间的选举，当一个候选人具有效价优势时，他们在党派问题维度上两极分化。候选人通过在选民的偏好不确定的第二个问题维度上选择政策来竞争。现有的研究预测，低价候选人通过采取非中间派政策来“赌复活”，以区别于更强大的对手。我们的研究表明，在高度两极分化的环境中，这种预测是相反的:强势候选人选择的政策与选民的立场不太一致，但仍然有更高的概率赢得选举。(凝胶11，凝胶72)

引用次数: 4

Optimal Information Disclosure in Classic Auctions 经典拍卖中的最优信息披露

IF 8.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review-Insights

Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210504

D. Bergemann, T. Heumann, S. Morris, Constantine S. Sorokin, Eyal Winter

We characterize the revenue-maximizing information structure in the second-price auction. The seller faces a trade-off: more information improves the efficiency of the allocation but creates higher information rents for bidders. The information disclosure policy that maximizes the revenue of the seller is to fully reveal low values (where competition is high) but to pool high values (where competition is low). The size of the pool is determined by a critical quantile that is independent of the distribution of values and only dependent on the number of bidders. We discuss how this policy provides a rationale for conflation in digital advertising. (JEL D44, D82, D83, M37)

我们刻画了二级价格拍卖中收益最大化的信息结构。卖方面临着一种权衡:更多的信息提高了分配效率，但给竞标者带来了更高的信息租金。使卖方收益最大化的信息披露政策是充分披露低值(竞争高的地方)，而集中披露低值(竞争低的地方)。池的大小由一个关键分位数决定，该分位数独立于值的分布，仅取决于竞标者的数量。我们将讨论这一政策如何为数字广告的合并提供理由。(凝胶d44, d82, d83, m37)

引用次数: 4

The Impact of Financial Assistance Programs on Health Care Utilization: Evidence from Kaiser Permanente. 财政援助计划对医疗保健利用的影响:来自凯撒医疗机构的证据。

IF 8.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review-Insights

Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210515

Alyce Adams, Raymond Kluender, Neale Mahoney, Jinglin Wang, Francis Wong, Wesley Yin

Most hospitals have financial assistance programs for low-income patients. We use administrative data from Kaiser Permanente to study the effects of financial assistance on healthcare utilization. Using a regression discontinuity design based on an income threshold for program eligibility, we find that financial assistance increases the likelihood of an inpatient, ambulatory and emergency department encounter by 3.6 pp (59%), 13.4 pp (20%), and 6.7 pp (53%), respectively, though effects dissipate three quarters after program receipt. Financial assistance also increases the detection and management of treatment-sensitive conditions (e.g., drugs treating diabetes), suggesting financial assistance may increase receipt of high-value care.

大多数医院都有针对低收入患者的财政援助计划。我们使用Kaiser Permanente的行政数据来研究财政援助对医疗保健利用的影响。使用基于项目资格收入阈值的回归不连续设计，我们发现经济援助分别增加了住院、门诊和急诊科的可能性3.6 pp(59%)、13.4 pp(20%)和6.7 pp(53%)，尽管效果在项目收到后消失了四分之三。财政援助还增加了对治疗敏感病症(例如，治疗糖尿病的药物)的发现和管理，这表明财政援助可能增加高价值护理的接受。

引用次数: 2

Pretest with Caution: Event-Study Estimates after Testing for Parallel Trends 谨慎预测:平行趋势测试后的事件研究估计

IF 8.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review-Insights

Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210236

J. Roth

This paper discusses two important limitations of the common practice of testing for preexisting differences in trends (“ pre-trends”) when using difference-in-differences and related methods. First, conventional pre-trends tests may have low power. Second, conditioning the analysis on the result of a pretest can distort estimation and inference, potentially exacerbating the bias of point estimates and under-coverage of confidence intervals. I analyze these issues both in theory and in simulations calibrated to a survey of recent papers in leading economics journals, which suggest that these limitations are important in practice. I conclude with practical recommendations for mitigating these issues. (JEL A14, C23, C51)

本文讨论了在使用差异中的差异和相关方法时，测试预先存在的趋势差异(“前趋势”)的常见实践的两个重要限制。首先，传统的趋势前测试可能功耗低。其次，对预测试结果的分析可能会扭曲估计和推断，潜在地加剧点估计的偏差和置信区间的覆盖不足。我从理论和模拟两方面分析了这些问题，并对最近发表在主要经济学期刊上的论文进行了调查，结果表明，这些限制在实践中很重要。最后，我提出了减轻这些问题的实用建议。(jel a14, c23, c51)

引用次数: 212

Police Force Size and Civilian Race. 警力规模与平民种族。

IF 8.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review-Insights

Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200792

Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily K Weisburst, Morgan C Williams

We report novel empirical estimates of the race-specific effects of larger police forces in the United States. Each additional police officer abates approximately 0.1 homicides. In per capita terms, effects are twice as large for Black versus White victims. Larger police forces also make fewer arrests for serious crimes, with larger reductions for crimes with Black suspects, implying that police force growth does not increase racial disparities among the most serious charges. At the same time, larger police forces make more arrests for low-level "quality-of-life" offenses, with effects that imply a disproportionate impact for Black Americans.

我们报告了对美国扩大警力对特定种族影响的新经验估计。每增加一名警察，凶杀案就会减少约 0.1 起。按人均计算，黑人受害者对白人受害者的影响是白人受害者的两倍。警力增加也会减少对严重犯罪的逮捕，而对黑人犯罪嫌疑人的逮捕则会减少更多，这意味着警力的增加并不会增加最严重指控中的种族差异。与此同时，规模较大的警察部队逮捕了更多的低级 "生活质量 "犯罪，这意味着对美国黑人的影响不成比例。

引用次数: 0

A Global Version of Samuelson's Dictum 萨缪尔森词典的全球版本

IF 8.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review-Insights

Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210186

Yaqing Xiao, Hongjun Yan, Jinfan Zhang

Samuelson’s Dictum refers to the conjecture that there is more informational inefficiency at the aggregate stock market level than at the individual stock level. Our paper recasts it in a global setup: there should be more informational inefficiency at the global level than at the country level. We find that sovereign CDS spreads can predict future stock market index returns, GDP, and PMI of their underlying countries. Consistent with the global version of Samuelson’s Dictum, the predictive power for both stock returns and macro variables is almost entirely from the global, rather than country-specific, information from the sovereign CDS market. (JEL G12, G14, G17)

Samuelson的Dictum指的是这样一种猜测，即总股票市场层面的信息效率比个股层面的信息低。我们的论文在全球环境中重新定义了这一点：全球层面的信息低效率应该比国家层面的低。我们发现主权CDS利差可以预测其相关国家未来的股市指数回报率、GDP和PMI。与萨缪尔森词典的全球版本一致，股票回报和宏观变量的预测能力几乎完全来自主权CDS市场的全球信息，而不是特定国家的信息。（JEL G12、G14、G17）

引用次数: 0

The Commitment Benefit of Consols in Government Debt Management 国有企业在政府债务管理中的承诺效益

IF 8.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review-Insights

Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210341

Davide Debortoli, Ricardo Nunes, P. Yared

We consider optimal government debt maturity in a deterministic economy in which the government can issue any arbitrary debt maturity structure and in which bond prices are a function of the government’s current and future primary surpluses. The government sequentially chooses policy, taking into account how current choices—which impact future policy—feed back into current bond prices. We show that issuing consols constitutes the unique stationary optimal debt portfolio, as it boosts government credibility to future policy and reduces the debt financing costs. (JEL E62, G12, H61, H63)

我们在确定性经济中考虑最优政府债务到期日，其中政府可以发行任意债务期限结构，债券价格是政府当前和未来基本盈余的函数。政府依次选择政策，考虑当前的选择如何反馈到当前的债券价格，这些选择会影响未来的政策。我们证明发行国库债券构成了唯一的固定最优债务组合，因为它提高了政府对未来政策的可信度并降低了债务融资成本。(jel e62, g12, h61, h63)

引用次数: 1

Robust Predictions in Coasian Bargaining 高斯议价中的稳健预测

IF 8.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review-Insights

Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210144

Heng Liu

This paper studies robust predictions when players may have additional information in an otherwise standard seller-offer bargaining with private values. Players’ extra information gives rise to higher-order uncertainties about the underlying surplus. We show that the equilibrium outcomes in the frequent-offer limit depend critically on the nature of second-order uncertainty: (i) when the seller’s beliefs about the buyer’s values are public, the limiting equilibrium outcomes are efficient and any surplus division is possible; (ii) when the seller’s beliefs are private, any feasible and individually rational payoffs can be the limiting equilibrium payoffs.(JEL C78, D82, D83)

本文研究了当玩家在具有私人价值的标准卖出价讨价还价中可能拥有额外信息时的稳健预测。玩家的额外信息导致了潜在盈余的高阶不确定性。我们证明了在频繁出价限制下的均衡结果严重依赖于二阶不确定性的性质:(i)当卖方对买方价值的信念是公开的时，极限均衡结果是有效的，任何剩余分割都是可能的;(ii)当卖方的信念是私有的时，任何可行的和个体理性的收益都可以是有限均衡收益。(凝胶c78, d82, d83)

引用次数: 0

Persuasion with Correlation Neglect: A Full Manipulation Result 忽略相关的说服：一个完全操纵的结果

IF 8.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review-Insights

Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210007

Gilat Levy, Inés Moreno de Barreda, R. Razin

We consider an information design problem in which a sender tries to persuade a receiver that has “correlation neglect,” i.e., fails to understand that signals might be correlated. We show that a sender with unlimited number of signals can fully manipulate the receiver. Specifically, the sender can induce the receiver to hold any state-dependent posterior she wishes to. If the sender only wishes to induce a state-independent posterior, she can use fully correlated signals, but generally she needs to design more involved correlation structures. (JEL D82, D83)

我们考虑一个信息设计问题，其中发送者试图说服具有“相关性忽视”的接收者，即无法理解信号可能是相关的。我们证明了具有无限数量信号的发送方可以完全操纵接收方。具体地说，发送方可以诱导接收方持有她希望持有的任何与状态相关的后验。如果发送者只希望诱导一个状态无关的后验，她可以使用完全相关的信号，但通常她需要设计更复杂的相关结构。(凝胶d82, d83)

引用次数: 8

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