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Changes in satellite-based cloud parameters in the Baltic Sea region during spring and summer (1982–2015) 1982-2015年波罗的海地区春夏季卫星云参数变化
Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-10-28 DOI: 10.5194/asr-17-219-2020
P. Post, M. Aun
Abstract. The satellite-based cloud climate data record CLARA-A2has been used to analyse regional average time-series and regional maps oftrends in the Baltic Sea region, 1982–2015. The investigated cloudparameters were total fractional cloud cover and cloud top height. Cloudobservations from the Tartu-Toravere meteorological station were used asreference data for the same period. Fractional cloud cover from CLARA-A2 wasin a good agreement with in situ data regarding the maxima and minima yearsand a downward trend in March over the 1982–2015 period. In June thefractional cloud cover interannual variability was very high and no cleartrend was seen. For cloud top heights summer and spring regional averagesshowed opposite signs of the trend: for June positive and for Marchnegative. Winter and autumn seasons have been left out of analysis due totoo large uncertainties in cloud products over latitudes higher than60 ∘ .
摘要基于卫星的云气候数据记录clara - a2已被用于分析1982-2015年波罗的海地区的区域平均时间序列和区域趋势图。研究的云参数为总分数云量和云顶高度。Tartu-Toravere气象站同期的云量观测作为参考资料。在1982-2015年期间,CLARA-A2的部分云量与现场数据在最大值和最小值年份上一致,并且在3月份呈下降趋势。6月云量年际变化很大,没有明显的变化趋势。对于夏季和春季的云顶高度,区域平均值呈现相反的趋势:6月为正,3月为负。由于纬度大于60°的地区的云产品的不确定性太大,冬季和秋季没有被纳入分析。
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引用次数: 2
The AEMET-γSREPS over the Antarctic Peninsula and the impact of kilometric-resolution EPS on logistic activities on the continent 南极半岛的AEMET-γSREPS及其对大陆后勤活动的影响
Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-10-08 DOI: 10.5194/asr-17-209-2020
Sergi Gonzalez, A. Callado, M. J. Fresnadillo Martínez, Benito Elvira
Abstract. Kilometric-resolution Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs)will be the new state-of-the-art forecasting tools for short-rangeprediction in the following decade. Their value will be even greater inAntarctica due to the increasingly demanding weather forecasts for logisticservices. During the 2018–2019 austral summer (1 December–31 March),coinciding with the Southern Hemisphere Special Observation Period of theYear of Polar Prediction (YOPP), the 2.5 km AEMET- γ SREPS wasoperationally integrated over the Antarctic Peninsula. In particular, theAntarctic version of γ SREPS comes up with crossing fournon-hydrostatic convection-permitting NWP models at 2.5 km with three global NWP driving models as boundary conditions. The γ SREPS forecasting system has been validated in comparison with ECMWF EPS. It is concluded that γ SREPS has an added value to ECMWF EPS due to both its higher resolution and its multi-boundary conditions and multi-NWP model approach. γ SREPS performance has a positive impact on logistic activities at research stations and its design may contribute to polar prediction research.
摘要千米分辨率集合预报系统(eps)将在未来十年成为最先进的短期预报工具。在南极洲,由于对物流服务的天气预报要求越来越高,它们的价值将会更大。在2018-2019年南方夏季(12月1日至3月31日),与极地预测年南半球特别观察期(YOPP)一致,在南极半岛上空对2.5公里AEMET- γ SREPS进行了业务整合。特别是,南极版本的γ SREPS提出了在2.5公里处穿越四个非流体静力对流允许的NWP模式,并以三个全球NWP驱动模式作为边界条件。通过与ECMWF EPS的对比,验证了γ SREPS预报系统的有效性。综上所述,γ SREPS具有较高的分辨率、多边界条件和多nwp模式方法,对ECMWF EPS具有附加价值。SREPS的性能对研究站的后勤活动有积极的影响,其设计可能有助于极地预测研究。
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引用次数: 0
High resolution climate change projections for the Pyrenees region 比利牛斯地区的高分辨率气候变化预测
Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-30 DOI: 10.5194/ASR-17-191-2020
M. P. Amblar-Francés, P. Ramos-Calzado, Jorge Sanchis-Lladó, Alfonso Hernanz-Lázaro, María C. Peral-García, B. Navascués, Marta Domínguez-Alonso, M. Pastor-Saavedra, E. Rodríguez‐Camino
Abstract. The Pyrenees, located in the transition zone of Atlantic and Mediterranean climates, constitute a paradigmatic example of mountains undergoing rapid changes in environmental conditions, with potential impact on the availability of water resources, mainly for downstream populations. High-resolution probabilistic climate change projections for precipitationand temperature are a crucial element for stakeholders to make well-informed decisions on adaptation to new climate conditions. In this line, we have generated high–resolution climate projections for 21st century by applying two statistical downscaling methods (regression for max and min temperatures, and analogue for precipitation) over the Pyrenees region in the frame of the CLIMPY project over a new high-resolution (5 km  ×  5 km) observational grid using 24 climate models from CMIP5. The application of statistical downscaling to such a high resolution observational grid instead of station data partially circumvent the problems associated to the non-uniform distribution of observational in situ data. This new high resolution projections database based on statistical algorithms complements the widely used EUROCORDEX data based on dynamical downscaling and allows to identify features that are dependent on the particular downscaling method. In our analysis, we not only focus on maximum and minimum temperatures andprecipitation changes but also on changes in some relevant extreme indexes,being 1986–2005 the reference period. Although climate models predict ageneral increase in temperature extremes for the end of the 21st century,the exact spatial distribution of changes in temperature and much more inprecipitation remains uncertain as they are strongly model dependent. Besides, for precipitation, the uncertainty associated to models can mask– depending on the zones- the signal of change. However, the large numberof downscaled models and the high resolution of the used grid allow us toprovide differential information at least at massif level. The impact of the RCP becomes significant for the second half of the 21st century, withchanges – differentiated by massifs – of extreme temperatures and analysed associated extreme indexes for RCP8.5 at the end of the century.
摘要比利牛斯山脉位于大西洋和地中海气候的过渡地带,是环境条件发生迅速变化的山区的典型例子,对主要是下游人口的水资源供应可能产生影响。降水和温度的高分辨率概率气候变化预估是利益攸关方做出适应新气候条件的明智决策的关键因素。在这条线上,我们在CLIMPY项目框架下,利用CMIP5的24个气候模式,在一个新的高分辨率(5公里× 5公里)观测网格上,应用两种统计降尺度方法(最高和最低温度回归和降水模拟),对比利牛斯地区进行了21世纪的高分辨率气候预估。将统计降尺度应用于这样一个高分辨率的观测网格而不是台站数据,部分地避免了观测现场数据分布不均匀的问题。这种基于统计算法的新高分辨率投影数据库是对广泛使用的基于动态降尺度的EUROCORDEX数据的补充,并允许识别依赖于特定降尺度方法的特征。在我们的分析中,我们不仅关注最高、最低气温和降水的变化,而且关注一些相关的极端指数的变化,以1986-2005年为参考期。尽管气候模式预测到21世纪末极端温度的普遍增加,但温度变化和更多降水变化的确切空间分布仍然不确定,因为它们强烈依赖于模式。此外,就降水而言,模式的不确定性可能掩盖变化的信号(取决于区域)。然而,大量的缩小模型和使用网格的高分辨率使我们能够提供至少在地块水平上的差异信息。在21世纪下半叶,RCP的影响变得显著,极端温度的变化(以块状区分)和分析了本世纪末RCP8.5的相关极端指数。
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引用次数: 18
FAIR: a project to realize a user-friendly exchange of open weather data FAIR:一个实现开放天气数据的用户友好交换的项目
Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-18 DOI: 10.5194/ASR-17-183-2020
C. W. Frank, F. Kaspar, J. Keller, Till Adams, Miriam Felkers, B. Fischer, M. Handte, P. Marrón, Hinrich Paulsen, M. Neteler, J. Schiewe, Marvin Schuchert, C. Nickel, R. Wacker, Richard Figura
Abstract. Access to high quality weather and climate data is crucial for a wide range of societal and economic issues. It allows optimising industrial processes, supports the identification of potential risks related to climate change or allows the development of corresponding adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although such data is freely available through Germany’s national meteorological service DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst) since 2017, the application potential in industry and society has certainly not yet been fully unlocked. Major obstacles are the complexity of the raw data, as well as missing tools for their simple integration into existing industrial applications. The goal of the research project FAIR is to simplify the information exchange between the DWD and economical players. In order to reach this goal a requirement analysis with end-users of weather data from three different sectors was conducted. A central requirement regarding the site assessment of wind plants is quick and easy access to historical wind-series at specific sites. Preferably downloadable in formats like CSV or via an API. Event planning partners are interested in a quick access to health relevant weather information at their event location, and the E-mobility sector in temperature data along planned routes. In this paper, we summarize the results of the requirement analysis and present the deduced technical architecture and FAIR services aiming at a user-friendly exchange of weather data.
摘要获取高质量的天气和气候数据对于广泛的社会和经济问题至关重要。它有助于优化工业流程,支持识别与气候变化有关的潜在风险,或有助于制定相应的适应和缓解战略。尽管自2017年以来,这些数据已通过德国国家气象服务机构DWD (Deutscher weterdienst)免费提供,但在工业和社会中的应用潜力肯定尚未完全释放。主要障碍是原始数据的复杂性,以及缺少将其简单集成到现有工业应用程序中的工具。研究项目FAIR的目标是简化DWD与经济参与者之间的信息交换。为了达到这个目标,我们对来自三个不同界别的天气数据的最终用户进行了需求分析。关于风电场选址评估的一个核心要求是快速方便地获取特定地点的历史风力序列。最好以CSV或通过API等格式下载。活动规划合作伙伴希望在其活动地点快速获取与健康相关的天气信息,而电动交通部门则希望获得计划路线沿线的温度数据。在本文中,我们总结了需求分析的结果,并提出了推导的技术架构和FAIR服务,旨在实现用户友好的天气数据交换。
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引用次数: 4
The Conquest of Cattle Dominancy Statuesque in Pastoral Area: A Case of Borana Pastoral in Southern Ethiopia, Ethiopia 牧区牛优势雕像的征服:以埃塞俄比亚南部博拉纳牧区为例
Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-17 DOI: 10.11648/J.SR.20200805.13
Dirriba Mengistu
This study was undertaken in Borana zone to evaluate the livestock production and composition using 125 respondents. The sample households were selected randomly from the randomly selected districts and PAs. The result showed that the livelihood diversification is the reality on the ground unlike the pastoralism jargon. The survey data indicated that crop production covers about 22% of annual income of the Agro/pastoralists. The diversification to the drought resistant livestock and dryland crop farming become expanded in the zone. However, the shift from cattle dominance social system to crop and drought resistant livestock should be examined from economics autonomy besides ecological maintenance. Additionally, this research did not provided attention to the optimization of pastoral livelihood diversification to systemize the natural enforced diversification in the pastoral area. Additionally, this conclusion opens the entry for further investigation to prove the wealth dynamics and asset diversification index in the pastoral area. Thus, it calls for further pastoral economy (income) analysis beyond this study, which demands an integrative research and development interventions to balance the livelihood diversification and ecological balance.
本研究在Borana地区进行,利用125名调查对象对牲畜生产和组成进行评估。样本家庭从随机选取的地区和自治区中随机选取。结果表明,不同于畜牧业的术语,生计多样化是当地的现实。调查数据表明,作物生产约占农牧民年收入的22%。抗旱畜牧业和旱地作物种植的多样化在该区得到扩大。但是,从以牛为主导的社会体系向作物和抗旱性家畜的转变,除了生态维护之外,还应从经济自治的角度来审视。此外,本研究并未关注牧民生计多样化的优化,以使牧区自然强制多样化系统化。此外,这一结论为进一步研究证明牧区财富动态和资产多元化指数打开了大门。因此,需要在本研究的基础上对牧民经济(收入)进行进一步的分析,需要采取综合的研发干预措施来平衡生计多样化和生态平衡。
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引用次数: 1
Effect of Insurgency on Cattle Markets in Northeast Nigeria: Appraisal of Kasuwan Shanu Cattle Market, Maiduguri, Borno State 叛乱对尼日利亚东北部牛市场的影响:对博尔诺州迈杜古里Kasuwan Shanu牛市场的评估
Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-15 DOI: 10.11648/J.SR.20200805.11
H. Mohammed, F. Ahmed, A. N. Adedeji
The decade attacks of Boko Haram insurgent has left many people displaced and destroyed many lives and properties in the Northeast Nigeria. However, little attention is paid to the degree at which this conflict has affected influential business activities especially cattle supply. The study examined the effect of Boko Haram insurgency on cattle marketers in Kasuwan Shanu, Maiduguri, Borno State. A structured questionnaire was designed to gather primary data from selected cattle marketers. Descriptive statistics and business budget model were used for data analysis. Furthermore, percentage change of employment generated by cattle marketing dropped by 100% from 2009-2014. The result showed that, before insurgency 81% of the cattle traders earned above N80,000.00 as income per month, while about 57% earned less than N80,000 during insurgency per month in study area. The result revealed that cattle supply is drastically reduced by almost 96% during insurgency. More so, the net profit per head of cattle during the insurgency was about ₦29,500, dropped from ₦51,200 before the insurgency. As the condition is currently perceived to be enabling and conducive in the state, there is need for concerted effort to be made by all the stakeholders in revamping the cattle business to return and spin-off the economy of the state.
博科圣地叛乱分子十年来的袭击使尼日利亚东北部许多人流离失所,摧毁了许多生命和财产。然而,很少有人注意到这种冲突对有影响力的商业活动,特别是牲畜供应的影响程度。该研究调查了博科圣地叛乱对博尔诺州迈杜古里Kasuwan Shanu的牛贩子的影响。设计了一份结构化问卷,从选定的牛贩那里收集原始数据。采用描述性统计和商业预算模型进行数据分析。此外,从2009年到2014年,养牛市场创造的就业百分比变化下降了100%。结果表明,在叛乱前,81%的牛贩子每月收入超过8万奈拉,而在叛乱期间,大约57%的牛贩子每月收入低于8万奈拉。结果显示,在叛乱期间,牛的供应急剧减少了近96%。更重要的是,叛乱期间每头牛的净利润约为29,500奈拉,低于叛乱前的51,200奈拉。由于目前的条件被认为是有利的,所有利益相关者都需要共同努力,改造养牛业,以回报和分拆该州的经济。
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引用次数: 0
Factors Influencing Income Inequality in Urban Ethiopia (Cross-sectional Analysis) 影响埃塞俄比亚城市收入不平等的因素(横断面分析)
Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-15 DOI: 10.11648/J.SR.20200805.12
G. Abebe
This studies focusing on investigating the source of inequality in urban part of Ethiopia. The study are more of descriptive and econometric analysis was employed as general method of analysis by using the raw data collected from central Stastical authority based on the regression decomposition methodology of fields. The empirical result tells that the variables like age, sex, household size, gender and marital status have negative relation with expenditure/income and this variable is the highest contributor for variation in income/expenditure among the urban society in Ethiopia while the remaining variables like age square, value, numbers of household head with primary education, numbers of household head with secondary education, and numbers of household head with tertiary education are positively related with expenditure/income or positively affect expenditure in the household head and this variable is highest contributor for reducing the deviation among the urban society interms of income/expenditure. The employment, the occupation and the race are also having a great contribution for the inequality of income in urban part of our country. The government should employ poor oriented policy in order to curb income inequality especially the government should invest urban infrastructural development (road, private and condominium housing construction) which have a great contribution to reduce inequality among the household head in urban Ethiopia.
本研究的重点是调查埃塞俄比亚城市部分不平等的根源。本研究更多的采用描述性和计量经济学分析作为一般的分析方法,利用中央统计机构收集的原始数据,基于回归分解的领域方法。实证结果表明,年龄、性别、家庭规模、性别和婚姻状况等变量与支出/收入呈负相关,这一变量是埃塞俄比亚城市社会中收入/支出变化的最大贡献者,而其他变量如年龄平方、价值、受过初等教育的户主人数、受过中等教育的户主人数、受过高等教育的户主数量与支出/收入呈正相关或正向影响户主的支出,这一变量是减少城市社会收入/支出偏差的最大贡献者。就业、职业和种族也是造成我国城市部分地区收入不平等的重要原因。政府应该采取穷人导向的政策,以遏制收入不平等,特别是政府应该投资城市基础设施发展(道路,私人和公寓住房建设),这对减少埃塞俄比亚城市户主之间的不平等有很大的贡献。
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引用次数: 0
M-Banking: The Transaction Revolution in Bangladesh 移动银行:孟加拉国的交易革命
Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-08-28 DOI: 10.11648/j.sr.20200804.12
Md. Tareq Hasan
Bangladesh is a developing country where mobile network operators had been started from 1993 through AMPS (Advanced Mobile Phone Service) and later on CDMA (Code-Division Multiple Access) technology was introduced and mobile banking facilities were started clearly under a guideline of the central bank of Bangladesh on ‘Mobile Financial Services for Banks’ in September 2011. Though m-banking is a newer service in the country meanwhile it has got very popularity within a short time due to inadequate traditional banking facilities. In this study, mobile banking of Bangladesh has been emphasized on some transactional usages and with a new concept. There are many villages in Bangladesh where no financial institution exists physically for financial transactions yet. Through this study, the researcher also found that many villages are very far away from the bank area. But people who have no bank accounts are now habituated with mobile banking facilities and happy with the services. Since some financial institutions are allowing their subscribers (mobile banking account holders) to use ATM facilities for cash withdrawal, so the m-banking is being popular in the village, semi-urban, urban, and city areas. The subscribers are being accustomed to mobile banking services and the users are also increasing tremendously with time.
孟加拉国是一个发展中国家,移动网络运营商从1993年开始通过AMPS(先进移动电话服务),后来引入了CDMA(码分多址)技术,并在2011年9月孟加拉国中央银行关于“银行移动金融服务”的指导方针下明确启动了移动银行设施。虽然移动银行在国内是一项较新的服务,但由于传统银行设施不足,它在短时间内就得到了很好的普及。在本研究中,孟加拉国的手机银行强调了一些交易用途,并提出了一个新的概念。孟加拉国的许多村庄还没有实体的金融机构进行金融交易。通过这项研究,研究者还发现许多村庄离河岸区很远。但没有银行账户的人现在已经习惯了移动银行设施,并对这些服务感到满意。随着部分金融机构允许用户(手机银行账户持有人)使用自动取款机(ATM)提取现金,手机银行在农村、半城市、城市、城市等地区正在普及。用户已经习惯了手机银行服务,随着时间的推移,用户也在急剧增加。
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引用次数: 5
Observation of wave-driven air–water turbulent momentum exchange in a large but fetch-limited shallow lake 大而限水浅湖中波浪驱动气-水湍流动量交换的观测
Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-08-25 DOI: 10.5194/asr-17-175-2020
G. Lükő, P. Torma, T. Krámer, T. Weidinger, Ž. Večenaj, B. Grisogono
Abstract. Wind-induced waves play a key role in air–sea momentum and heat exchange. Fetch-limited shallow lakes differ significantly from open ocean circumstances since the wave field is characterized by young and growing waves that (i) are steeper and can collapse by white-capping at lower wind speeds, and (ii) travel with lower phase velocity. Consequently, momentum (and heat) flux estimation methods arising from oceanographic observations cannot be directly applied; however, few attempts have been made to describe air–water turbulent exchange in case of large, but still fetch-limited shallow lakes. Within a Croatian-Hungarian measurement campaign, turbulent flux measurements were performed in Lake Balaton.Momentum and heat fluxes were measured with eddy-covariance technique at anoffshore station, while waves were simultaneously recorded with underwateracoustic surface tracking. Momentum fluxes were also recorded at two further stations closer to the shore. In this study, we analyze the measured wind stress and surface waves to reveal surface drag in case of highly fetch-limited conditions. We compare our results with relevant modelformulations that attempt to estimate momentum flux using different wavestate parameterizations (i.e. wave age and wave slope modified Charnockformulations) and show that derived drag and roughness length parameterizations differ significantly from oceanographic formulas.
摘要风致波在海气动量和热交换中起着关键作用。受取水限制的浅湖与开阔的海洋环境有很大的不同,因为波场的特点是年轻的和正在增长的波,这些波(i)更陡峭,可以在较低的风速下通过白顶坍塌,(ii)以较低的相速度传播。因此,海洋观测产生的动量(和热)通量估算方法不能直接应用;然而,很少有人尝试描述在大型但仍然有限的浅水湖泊中空气-水湍流交换的情况。在克罗地亚-匈牙利测量运动中,在巴拉顿湖进行了湍流通量测量。利用涡流协方差技术在近海测站测量了动量和热通量,同时利用水声水面跟踪记录了波浪。在靠近海岸的另外两个站也记录了动量通量。在本研究中,我们分析了测量的风应力和表面波,以揭示在高度抓取限制条件下的表面阻力。我们将我们的结果与相关的模型公式进行了比较,这些模型公式试图使用不同的波态参数化(即波龄和波斜率修正的charnock公式)来估计动量通量,并表明推导出的阻力和粗糙度参数化与海洋学公式有很大不同。
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引用次数: 8
Dynamic model of photovoltaic module temperature as a function of atmospheric conditions 光伏组件温度随大气条件变化的动态模型
Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-24 DOI: 10.5194/asr-17-165-2020
J. Barry, D. Böttcher, K. Pfeilsticker, Anna Herman-Czezuch, N. Kimiaie, S. Meilinger, C. Schirrmeister, H. Deneke, Jonas Witthuhn, Felix Gödde
Abstract. The temperature of photovoltaic modules is modelled as a dynamic function of ambient temperature, shortwave and longwave irradiance and wind speed, in order to allow for a more accurate characterisation of their efficiency. A simple dynamic thermal model is developed by extending an existing parametric steady-state model using an exponential smoothing kernel to include the effect of the heat capacity of the system. The four parameters of the model are fitted to measured data from three photovoltaic systems in the Allgau region in Germany using non-linear optimisation. The dynamic model reduces the root-mean-square error between measured and modelled module temperature to 1.58 K on average, compared to 3.03 K for the steady-state model, whereas the maximum instantaneous error is reduced from 20.02 to 6.58 K.
摘要光伏组件的温度被建模为环境温度、短波和长波辐照度以及风速的动态函数,以便更准确地描述其效率。利用指数平滑核扩展已有的参数稳态模型,建立了包含系统热容影响的简单动态热模型。采用非线性优化方法,将模型的四个参数拟合到德国Allgau地区三个光伏系统的实测数据中。动态模型将测量和建模模块温度之间的均方根误差平均降低到1.58 K,而稳态模型的均方根误差为3.03 K,而最大瞬时误差从20.02 K降低到6.58 K。
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引用次数: 4
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