Abstract. We consider possible influence on severe weather occurrence in the context of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere–ionosphere–atmosphere system, mediated by aurorally excited atmospheric gravity waves. Solar wind high-speed streams from coronal holes cause intensifications of ionospheric currents at high latitudes launching gravity waves propagating in the upper and lower atmosphere. While these gravity waves reach the troposphere with much attenuated amplitudes, they can contribute to conditional symmetric instability release and intensification of storms. Severe weather events, including winter storms and heavy rainfall causing floods and flash floods, show a tendency to follow arrivals of solar wind high-speed streams from coronal holes. The ERA5 re-analysis is used to evaluate slantwise convective available potential energy and vertically integrated extent of realizable symmetric instability to assess the likelihood of slantwise convection in frontal zones of extratropical cyclones during severe snowstorms and flash floods. The observed low-level southerly winds and high wind shears in these regions are favorable conditions for over-reflection of down-going aurorally excited gravity waves potentially contributing to conditional symmetric instability release leading to slantwise convection and high-rate precipitation.
{"title":"Mesoscale weather influenced by auroral gravity waves contributing to conditional symmetric instability release?","authors":"P. Prikryl","doi":"10.5194/asr-21-1-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-21-1-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. We consider possible influence on severe weather occurrence in the context of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere–ionosphere–atmosphere system, mediated by aurorally excited atmospheric gravity waves. Solar wind high-speed streams from coronal holes cause intensifications of ionospheric currents at high latitudes launching gravity waves propagating in the upper and lower atmosphere. While these gravity waves reach the troposphere with much attenuated amplitudes, they can contribute to conditional symmetric instability release and intensification of storms. Severe weather events, including winter storms and heavy rainfall causing floods and flash floods, show a tendency to follow arrivals of solar wind high-speed streams from coronal holes. The ERA5 re-analysis is used to evaluate slantwise convective available potential energy and vertically integrated extent of realizable symmetric instability to assess the likelihood of slantwise convection in frontal zones of extratropical cyclones during severe snowstorms and flash floods. The observed low-level southerly winds and high wind shears in these regions are favorable conditions for over-reflection of down-going aurorally excited gravity waves potentially contributing to conditional symmetric instability release leading to slantwise convection and high-rate precipitation.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"17 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141648207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Samer Chaaraoui, Sebastian Houben, Stefanie Meilinger
Abstract. This work proposes a novel approach for probabilistic end-to-end all-sky imager-based nowcasting with horizons of up to 30 min using an ImageNet pre-trained deep neural network. The method involves a two-stage approach. First, a backbone model is trained to estimate the irradiance from all-sky imager (ASI) images. The model is then extended and retrained on image and parameter sequences for forecasting. An open access data set is used for training and evaluation. We investigated the impact of simultaneously considering global horizontal (GHI), direct normal (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) on training time and forecast performance as well as the effect of adding parameters describing the irradiance variability proposed in the literature. The backbone model estimates current GHI with an RMSE and MAE of 58.06 and 29.33 W m−2, respectively. When extended for forecasting, the model achieves an overall positive skill score reaching 18.6 % compared to a smart persistence forecast. Minor modifications to the deterministic backbone and forecasting models enables the architecture to output an asymmetrical probability distribution and reduces training time while leading to similar errors for the backbone models. Investigating the impact of variability parameters shows that they reduce training time but have no significant impact on the GHI forecasting performance for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting while simultaneously forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI reduces the forecast performance.
{"title":"Probabilistic end-to-end irradiance forecasting through pre-trained deep learning models using all-sky-images","authors":"Samer Chaaraoui, Sebastian Houben, Stefanie Meilinger","doi":"10.5194/asr-20-129-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-129-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This work proposes a novel approach for probabilistic end-to-end all-sky imager-based nowcasting with horizons of up to 30 min using an ImageNet pre-trained deep neural network. The method involves a two-stage approach. First, a backbone model is trained to estimate the irradiance from all-sky imager (ASI) images. The model is then extended and retrained on image and parameter sequences for forecasting. An open access data set is used for training and evaluation. We investigated the impact of simultaneously considering global horizontal (GHI), direct normal (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) on training time and forecast performance as well as the effect of adding parameters describing the irradiance variability proposed in the literature. The backbone model estimates current GHI with an RMSE and MAE of 58.06 and 29.33 W m−2, respectively. When extended for forecasting, the model achieves an overall positive skill score reaching 18.6 % compared to a smart persistence forecast. Minor modifications to the deterministic backbone and forecasting models enables the architecture to output an asymmetrical probability distribution and reduces training time while leading to similar errors for the backbone models. Investigating the impact of variability parameters shows that they reduce training time but have no significant impact on the GHI forecasting performance for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting while simultaneously forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI reduces the forecast performance.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"53 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139390168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
T. Spangehl, M. Borsche, Deborah Niermann, Frank Kaspar, S. Schimanke, Susanne Brienen, Thomas Möller, Maren Brast
Abstract. In order to facilitate offshore wind farm tenders, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, Germany's national meteorological service) provides reanalysis data and quality assessments to Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH, Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency). The regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 is used besides the global reanalysis ERA5. New reanalyses and derived products getting available are (i) the regional reanalysis CERRA (C3S), (ii) COSMO-R6G2, a successor of COSMO-REA6 which is currently produced by DWD and (iii) HoKliSim-De, a convection-permitting climate simulation for Germany with COSMO-CLM as a regional downscaling of ERA5. In the present study, the quality of the different data sets for offshore wind energy application is compared using in-situ measurements of the wind speed and wind direction from the top anemometer and vane of the FINO1 research platform and satellite-based data of the near-surface wind speed from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF). Evaluation at FINO1 focuses on the time period prior to the installation of nearby wind farms to avoid wake effects. COSMO-REA6, CERRA and HoKliSim-De show only small biases and resemble the observed distribution of the wind speed at FINO1 whereas ERA5 shows slightly lower values of the wind speed at 100 m. All model-based products tend to slightly underestimate the occurrence of south-westerly wind directions and overestimate wind directions from West to Northwest. Smallest directional biases are analysed for COSMO-REA6. Analysis of the windstorm CHRISTIAN suggests that ensemble information is required for the representation of individual extreme events. Evaluation of the near-surface wind speed using satellite-based data is performed for an area around the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. The median bias of ERA5 and COSMO-REA6 is close to zero. CERRA shows a systematic overestimation of the near-surface wind speed compared to the satellite-based reference datasets. By contrast, a slight underestimation is analysed for HoKliSim-De. The bias distribution analysed for a first simulation stream of COSMO-R6G2 is similar to COSMO-REA6 which provides initial indication for the applicability of the new product.
{"title":"Intercomparing the quality of recent reanalyses for offshore wind farm planning in Germany's exclusive economic zone of the North Sea","authors":"T. Spangehl, M. Borsche, Deborah Niermann, Frank Kaspar, S. Schimanke, Susanne Brienen, Thomas Möller, Maren Brast","doi":"10.5194/asr-20-109-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. In order to facilitate offshore wind farm tenders, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, Germany's national meteorological service) provides reanalysis data and quality assessments to Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH, Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency). The regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 is used besides the global reanalysis ERA5. New reanalyses and derived products getting available are (i) the regional reanalysis CERRA (C3S), (ii) COSMO-R6G2, a successor of COSMO-REA6 which is currently produced by DWD and (iii) HoKliSim-De, a convection-permitting climate simulation for Germany with COSMO-CLM as a regional downscaling of ERA5. In the present study, the quality of the different data sets for offshore wind energy application is compared using in-situ measurements of the wind speed and wind direction from the top anemometer and vane of the FINO1 research platform and satellite-based data of the near-surface wind speed from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF). Evaluation at FINO1 focuses on the time period prior to the installation of nearby wind farms to avoid wake effects. COSMO-REA6, CERRA and HoKliSim-De show only small biases and resemble the observed distribution of the wind speed at FINO1 whereas ERA5 shows slightly lower values of the wind speed at 100 m. All model-based products tend to slightly underestimate the occurrence of south-westerly wind directions and overestimate wind directions from West to Northwest. Smallest directional biases are analysed for COSMO-REA6. Analysis of the windstorm CHRISTIAN suggests that ensemble information is required for the representation of individual extreme events. Evaluation of the near-surface wind speed using satellite-based data is performed for an area around the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. The median bias of ERA5 and COSMO-REA6 is close to zero. CERRA shows a systematic overestimation of the near-surface wind speed compared to the satellite-based reference datasets. By contrast, a slight underestimation is analysed for HoKliSim-De. The bias distribution analysed for a first simulation stream of COSMO-R6G2 is similar to COSMO-REA6 which provides initial indication for the applicability of the new product.","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"4 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139264655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. The marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) over the southern Bulgarian Black Sea coast is studied based on remote sensing measurements with a monostatic Doppler sodar system located at about 400 m inland. Long-term profile data (August 2008–October 2016) with high spatial (10 m) and temporal (20 min running averages at every 10 min) resolution was analysed to reveal the complex vertical structure of the coastal ABL at marine airflow. The processes of air masses transformation due to the sharp change in physical characteristics of the underlying surface lead to Internal Boundary Layer (IBL) formation. Its spatial scales as a sublayer of the coastal ABL depend on the distance from the shore. In the absence of temperature and humidity profile measurements, the turbulent profiles of marine air masses of different fetch over land (400 to 2500 m) were used to examine the characteristics of the IBL. Different fetch or distance passed by the marine airflow before reaching the sodar is considered selecting intervals of wind directions. IBL heights between 60 and 150 m depending on the fetch are obtained.
{"title":"Internal boundary layer characteristics at the southern Bulgarian Black Sea coast","authors":"Damyan Barantiev, Ekaterina Batchvarova","doi":"10.5194/asr-20-97-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-97-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) over the southern Bulgarian Black Sea coast is studied based on remote sensing measurements with a monostatic Doppler sodar system located at about 400 m inland. Long-term profile data (August 2008–October 2016) with high spatial (10 m) and temporal (20 min running averages at every 10 min) resolution was analysed to reveal the complex vertical structure of the coastal ABL at marine airflow. The processes of air masses transformation due to the sharp change in physical characteristics of the underlying surface lead to Internal Boundary Layer (IBL) formation. Its spatial scales as a sublayer of the coastal ABL depend on the distance from the shore. In the absence of temperature and humidity profile measurements, the turbulent profiles of marine air masses of different fetch over land (400 to 2500 m) were used to examine the characteristics of the IBL. Different fetch or distance passed by the marine airflow before reaching the sodar is considered selecting intervals of wind directions. IBL heights between 60 and 150 m depending on the fetch are obtained.","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135425283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jouke H. S. de Baar, Linh Nhat Luu, G. van der Schrier, E. V. D. van den Besselaar, Irene Garcia‐Marti
Abstract. In this work, we present the most recent updates in the E-OBS gridded data set for daily mean wind speed over Europe. The data set is provided as an ensemble of 20 equally likely realisations. The main improvements of this data set are the use of forward selection linear regression for the monthly background field, as well as a method to ensure the reliability of the ensemble dispersion. In addition, we make a preliminary study into possible causes of the observed terrestrial wind stilling effect, such as local changes in surface roughness length.
{"title":"Recent improvements in the E-OBS gridded data set for daily mean wind speed over Europe in the period 1980–2021","authors":"Jouke H. S. de Baar, Linh Nhat Luu, G. van der Schrier, E. V. D. van den Besselaar, Irene Garcia‐Marti","doi":"10.5194/asr-20-91-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-91-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. In this work, we present the most recent updates in the E-OBS gridded data set for daily mean wind speed over Europe. The data set is provided as an ensemble of 20 equally likely realisations. The main improvements of this data set are the use of forward selection linear regression for the monthly background field, as well as a method to ensure the reliability of the ensemble dispersion. In addition, we make a preliminary study into possible causes of the observed terrestrial wind stilling effect, such as local changes in surface roughness length.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82983342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Golding, Elizabeth Ebert, D. Hoffmann, S. Potter
Abstract. In 2021, several weather disasters occurred in which conditions surpassed recorded extremes. Analysis of the performance of warning systems in these disasters by the WWRP HIWeather project shows that in most, but not all cases, there was adequate forewarning of the magnitude of the event, but that lack of preparedness and/or communication failures led to loss of life in particularly vulnerable groups. Using information from the HIWeather value chain database, we present an overview of key aspects of each event – the weather and its impact, the forecasts, the warnings, and the responses – followed by some results of a comparative analysis of warning performance and some conclusions about critical components of a successful warning system. In the light of this analysis we conclude with a checklist of key components in the design of an effective warning system for unprecedented weather events.
{"title":"Preparing for the unprecedented","authors":"B. Golding, Elizabeth Ebert, D. Hoffmann, S. Potter","doi":"10.5194/asr-20-85-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-85-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. In 2021, several weather disasters occurred in which conditions surpassed recorded extremes. Analysis of the performance of warning systems in these disasters by the WWRP HIWeather project shows that in most, but not all cases, there was adequate forewarning of the magnitude of the event, but that lack of preparedness and/or communication failures led to loss of life in particularly vulnerable groups. Using information from the HIWeather value chain database, we present an overview of key aspects of each event – the weather and its impact, the forecasts, the warnings, and the responses – followed by some results of a comparative analysis of warning performance and some conclusions about critical components of a successful warning system. In the light of this analysis we conclude with a checklist of key components in the design of an effective warning system for unprecedented weather events.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79547040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. It has become a worldwide expectation that the physics curriculum includes everyday knowledge as well. One important field that can make the curriculum more colourful and exciting is the field of meteorology. In our paper, a three-lesson-long curriculum for high schools will be presented on how to teach the connection between fog formation and air quality. The international educational experience of this particular topic will be surveyed, mainly in the countries of the Carpathian Basin, moreover, the measurement processes and education methods used in the GLOBE Program will also be presented. The experimental curriculum consists of three parts. In the first part air humidity and the concepts of absolute and relative humidity are discussed. Through a few specific exercises, the students participating in the program learn to specify relative humidity and become acquainted with fog formation. It is shown via an experiment that air cooling at a saturated state is not enough to form fog because condensational nuclei are needed for the formation of tiny water drops. In the 2nd lesson, the concept of temperature inversion and its connection to fog and air pollution are discussed. Using Internet websites the students collect information about the formation of smog, its types, occurrence, and the conditions for declaring smog alerts. In the 3rd lesson, the methods of air pollution analysis and different air pollutants are discussed. Websites, where the students can follow the air pollution data of their area, are used. Based on these, problems related to the interpretation of the data will be solved. The information which is available on the website of the European Environment Agency is also touched on.
{"title":"Fog formation, smog situations and air quality in high school physics education","authors":"Beáta Molnár, Tamás Weidinger, Péter Tasnádi","doi":"10.5194/asr-19-159-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-159-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. It has become a worldwide expectation that the physics curriculum includes everyday knowledge as well. One important field that can make the curriculum more colourful and exciting is the field of meteorology. In our paper, a three-lesson-long curriculum for high schools will be presented on how to teach the connection between fog formation and air quality. The international educational experience of this particular topic will be surveyed, mainly in the countries of the Carpathian Basin, moreover, the measurement processes and education methods used in the GLOBE Program will also be presented. The experimental curriculum consists of three parts. In the first part air humidity and the concepts of absolute and relative humidity are discussed. Through a few specific exercises, the students participating in the program learn to specify relative humidity and become acquainted with fog formation. It is shown via an experiment that air cooling at a saturated state is not enough to form fog because condensational nuclei are needed for the formation of tiny water drops. In the 2nd lesson, the concept of temperature inversion and its connection to fog and air pollution are discussed. Using Internet websites the students collect information about the formation of smog, its types, occurrence, and the conditions for declaring smog alerts. In the 3rd lesson, the methods of air pollution analysis and different air pollutants are discussed. Websites, where the students can follow the air pollution data of their area, are used. Based on these, problems related to the interpretation of the data will be solved. The information which is available on the website of the European Environment Agency is also touched on.","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135702345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. We report on an approach to distributed wind power forecasting, which supports wind energy integration in power grid operation during exceptional and critical situations. Forecasts are generated on-site the wind power plant (WPP) in order to provide blackout-robust data transmission directly from the WPP to the grid operator. An adaptively trained forecasting model uses locally available sensor data to predict the available active power (AAP) signal in a probabilistic fashion. A forecast generated off-site based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) is deposited and combined on-site the WPP with the locally generated forecast. We evaluate the performance of the method in a case study and find that the locally generated forecast significantly improves forecast reliability for a short-term horizon, which is highly relevant for enabling power reserve provision from WPPs.
{"title":"Decentralized forecasting of wind energy generation with an adaptive machine learning approach to support ancillary grid services","authors":"L. Holicki, Manuel Dröse, G. Schürmann, M. Letzel","doi":"10.5194/asr-20-81-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-81-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. We report on an approach to distributed wind power forecasting,\u0000which supports wind energy integration in power grid operation during\u0000exceptional and critical situations. Forecasts are generated on-site the\u0000wind power plant (WPP) in order to provide blackout-robust data transmission\u0000directly from the WPP to the grid operator. An adaptively trained\u0000forecasting model uses locally available sensor data to predict the\u0000available active power (AAP) signal in a probabilistic fashion. A forecast\u0000generated off-site based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) is deposited\u0000and combined on-site the WPP with the locally generated forecast. We\u0000evaluate the performance of the method in a case study and find that the\u0000locally generated forecast significantly improves forecast reliability for a\u0000short-term horizon, which is highly relevant for enabling power reserve\u0000provision from WPPs.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88804823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Hoffmann, Elizabeth Ebert, Carla J. Mooney, B. Golding, Sally Potter
Abstract. The weather information value chain provides a framework for characterising the production, communication, and use of information by all stakeholders in an end-to-end warning system covering weather and hazard monitoring, modelling and forecasting, risk assessment, communication and preparedness activities. Warning services are typically developed and provided through a multitude of complex and malleable value chains (networks), often established through co-design, co-creation and co-provision. In November 2020, a 4-year international project under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme was instigated to explore value chain approaches to describe and evaluate warning systems for high impact weather by integrating physical and social science. It aims to create a framework with guidance and tools for using value chain approaches, and to develop a database of high impact weather warning case studies for scientists and practitioners to review, analyse and learn from previous experience using value chain approaches. Here we describe a template for high-impact weather event case study collection that provides a tool for scientists and practitioners involved in researching, designing and evaluating weather-related warning systems to review previous experience of high impact weather events and assess their efficacy.
{"title":"Using value chain approaches to evaluate the end-to-end warning chain","authors":"D. Hoffmann, Elizabeth Ebert, Carla J. Mooney, B. Golding, Sally Potter","doi":"10.5194/asr-20-73-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-73-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The weather information value chain provides a framework for characterising the production, communication, and use of information by all stakeholders in an end-to-end warning system covering weather and hazard monitoring, modelling and forecasting, risk assessment, communication and preparedness activities. Warning services are typically developed and provided through a multitude of complex and malleable value chains (networks), often established through co-design, co-creation and co-provision. In November 2020, a 4-year international project under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme was instigated to explore value chain approaches to describe and evaluate\u0000warning systems for high impact weather by integrating physical and social\u0000science. It aims to create a framework with guidance and tools for using\u0000value chain approaches, and to develop a database of high impact weather\u0000warning case studies for scientists and practitioners to review, analyse and\u0000learn from previous experience using value chain approaches. Here we describe a template for high-impact weather event case study\u0000collection that provides a tool for scientists and practitioners involved in\u0000researching, designing and evaluating weather-related warning systems to\u0000review previous experience of high impact weather events and assess their\u0000efficacy.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"116 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79277073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nils Eingrüber, W. Korres, U. Löhnert, K. Schneider
Abstract. As the frequency of extreme heat events in cities is significantly increasing due to climate change, the implementation of adaptation measures is important for urban planning. Microclimate modelling approaches enable scenario analyses and evaluations of adaptation potentials. An ENVI-met microclimate model was setup for a heterogeneous urban study area in Cologne/Germany characterized by closed building structures in the eastern part and an urban park area in the western part. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the model sensitivity and performance to different wind direction forcing and demonstrate the importance of accurate wind forcing data for precise microclimate modelling evaluated with sensor measurements. To this end, we compared simulated air temperatures at 3 m height level using measured wind direction forcing data with simulated air temperatures using constant wind direction forcing from west, north, east and south direction. All other forcing data like wind speed were kept exactly the same as in the reference run. This sensitivity study was performed for a warm summer day in 2022. The model results of all five model runs (reference plus four scenarios) were compared to microclimatological measurements derived from one station of a dense meteorological sensor network located in the study area using the simulated mean air temperatures. We found significant temperature differences between the four sensitivity tests and the reference run as well as to the sensor measurements. Temperature differences between the reference run and the measurements were small and a high statistical model fit could be determined (Nash Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient/NSE = 0.91). The four model runs with constant wind directions showed significantly larger differences to measurement data and a worse statistical correlation between simulated and observed data (NSE between 0.62 and 0.15). For constant west winds, cooler air temperatures and higher wind speeds were found in the urban park and in the streets and courtyards east of the park. Constant east wind causes warmer air temperatures in the urban park area and lower wind speeds in the street canyons and inner courtyards. This shows that cooling effects in adjacent building blocks due to the greened urban park largely depend on the wind direction. The sensitivity tests show that the wind direction effect can result in local air temperature differences of up to 4 K on average. These results shows that even on summer days with low wind speeds, accurate wind direction data is highly relevant for accurate air temperature simulation. This finding can have important implications for urban planning and the design of green infrastructures in cities, e. g. for the design of fresh air corridors.
{"title":"Investigation of the ENVI-met model sensitivity to different wind direction forcing data in a heterogeneous urban environment","authors":"Nils Eingrüber, W. Korres, U. Löhnert, K. Schneider","doi":"10.5194/asr-20-65-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-65-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. As the frequency of extreme heat events in cities is\u0000significantly increasing due to climate change, the implementation of\u0000adaptation measures is important for urban planning. Microclimate modelling\u0000approaches enable scenario analyses and evaluations of adaptation\u0000potentials. An ENVI-met microclimate model was setup for a heterogeneous\u0000urban study area in Cologne/Germany characterized by closed building\u0000structures in the eastern part and an urban park area in the western part.\u0000The goal of this paper is to evaluate the model sensitivity and performance\u0000to different wind direction forcing and demonstrate the importance of\u0000accurate wind forcing data for precise microclimate modelling evaluated with\u0000sensor measurements. To this end, we compared simulated air temperatures at\u00003 m height level using measured wind direction forcing data with simulated\u0000air temperatures using constant wind direction forcing from west, north,\u0000east and south direction. All other forcing data like wind speed were kept\u0000exactly the same as in the reference run. This sensitivity study was\u0000performed for a warm summer day in 2022. The model results of all five model\u0000runs (reference plus four scenarios) were compared to microclimatological\u0000measurements derived from one station of a dense meteorological sensor\u0000network located in the study area using the simulated mean air temperatures.\u0000We found significant temperature differences between the four sensitivity\u0000tests and the reference run as well as to the sensor measurements.\u0000Temperature differences between the reference run and the measurements were\u0000small and a high statistical model fit could be determined (Nash Sutcliffe\u0000Model Efficiency Coefficient/NSE = 0.91). The four model runs with\u0000constant wind directions showed significantly larger differences to\u0000measurement data and a worse statistical correlation between simulated and\u0000observed data (NSE between 0.62 and 0.15). For constant west winds, cooler\u0000air temperatures and higher wind speeds were found in the urban park and in\u0000the streets and courtyards east of the park. Constant east wind causes\u0000warmer air temperatures in the urban park area and lower wind speeds in the\u0000street canyons and inner courtyards. This shows that cooling effects in\u0000adjacent building blocks due to the greened urban park largely depend on the\u0000wind direction. The sensitivity tests show that the wind direction effect\u0000can result in local air temperature differences of up to 4 K on\u0000average. These results shows that even on summer days with low wind speeds,\u0000accurate wind direction data is highly relevant for accurate air temperature\u0000simulation. This finding can have important implications for urban planning\u0000and the design of green infrastructures in cities, e. g. for the design of\u0000fresh air corridors.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"74 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88364622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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