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Analysis of Investment Returns as Markov Chain Random Walk 马尔可夫链随机漫步的投资回报分析
Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.1155/2024/3966566
F. Mettle, Emmanuel Aidoo, Carlos Oko Narku Dowuona, Louis Agyekum
The main objective of this paper is to analyse investment returns using a stochastic model and inform investors about the best stock market to invest in. To this effect, a Markov chain random walk model was successfully developed and implemented on 450 monthly market returns data spanning from January 1976 to December 2020 for Canada, India, Mexico, South Africa, and Switzerland obtained from the Federal Reserves of the Bank of St. Louis. The limiting state probabilities and six-month moving crush probabilities were estimated for each country, and these were used to assess the performance of the markets. The Mexican market was observed to have the least probabilities for all the negative states, while the Indian market recorded the largest limiting probabilities. In the case of positive states, the Mexican market recorded the highest limiting probabilities, while the Indian market recorded the lowest limiting probabilities. The results showed that the Mexican market performed better than the others over the study period, whilst India performed poorly. These findings provide crucial information for market regulators and investors in setting regulations and decision-making in investment.
本文的主要目的是利用随机模型分析投资回报,并告知投资者投资的最佳股票市场。为此,本文成功开发了马尔科夫链随机漫步模型,并在加拿大、印度、墨西哥、南非和瑞士从圣路易斯银行联邦储备局获得的从 1976 年 1 月到 2020 年 12 月的 450 个月市场回报数据上进行了应用。对每个国家的极限状态概率和六个月移动碾压概率进行了估算,并将其用于评估市场表现。据观察,墨西哥市场在所有负面状态下的概率最小,而印度市场的极限概率最大。在积极状态下,墨西哥市场的限制概率最高,而印度市场的限制概率最低。结果表明,在研究期间,墨西哥市场的表现优于其他市场,而印度市场的表现较差。这些研究结果为市场监管者和投资者制定投资法规和决策提供了重要信息。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of the Stock Prices at Uganda Securities Exchange Using the Exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Model 利用指数Ornstein-Uhlenbeck模型预测乌干达证券交易所股票价格
Pub Date : 2023-07-20 DOI: 10.1155/2023/2377314
Juma Kasozi, Erina Nanyonga, Fred Mayambala
We use the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model to predict the stock price dynamics over some finite time horizon of interest. The predictions are the key to the investors in a financial market because they provide vital reference information for decision making. We estimated all the parameters of the model (mean reversion speed, long-run mean, and the volatility) using the data from Stanbic Uganda Holdings Limited. We used the parameters to forecast the stock price and the associated mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The predictions were compared against those by the ARMA-GARCH model. We also found the 95 % prediction intervals before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results indicate that the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic model gives very accurate and reliable predictions with a MAPE of 0.4941 % . All the forecasted stock prices were within the prediction region established. This was not the case during the COVID-19 pandemic; the predicted stock prices are higher than the actual prices, indicating the severe impact COVID-19 inflicted on the stock market.
我们使用指数Ornstein-Uhlenbeck模型来预测有限时间范围内的股票价格动态。预测是投资者在金融市场上的关键,因为它们为决策提供了重要的参考信息。我们使用Stanbic乌干达控股有限公司的数据估计了模型的所有参数(均值回归速度、长期均值和波动性)。我们使用这些参数来预测股票价格和相关的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)。这些预测与ARMA-GARCH模型的预测结果进行了比较。我们还发现了COVID-19大流行之前和期间95%的预测间隔。结果表明,指数型Ornstein-Uhlenbeck随机模型预测结果准确可靠,MAPE为0.4941%。所有预测的股价均在建立的预测区间内。在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间并非如此;预测股价高于实际股价,说明新冠疫情对股市造成了严重影响。
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引用次数: 0
Nth Composite Iterative Scheme via Weak Contractions with Application 基于弱收缩的第n次复合迭代格式及其应用
Pub Date : 2023-07-19 DOI: 10.1155/2023/7175260
T. Qawasmeh, A. Bataihah, Khalaf Bataihah, Ahmad Mohammad Qazza, R. Hatamleh
The main goal of this study is to formulate an effective iterative scheme, namely, an nth composite iterative scheme for approximating the fixed point of a self-map T:UU with weak contraction property. We show that the nth composite iterative scheme is faster than the scheme obtained by Sintunavarat–Pitea’s iterative scheme. We present some examples using the MATLAB simulator to illustrate our results. Finally, we approximate the solution of some integral equations using our scheme and the Sintunavarat–Pitea scheme.
本研究的主要目标是制定一个有效的迭代方案,即:近似自映射t不动点的n ~ h复合迭代格式:U形为弱收缩性质的U形。我们证明了n - t - h -复合迭代格式比Sintunavarat-Pitea迭代格式得到的格式更快。我们给出了一些使用MATLAB模拟器的例子来说明我们的结果。最后,我们用我们的格式和Sintunavarat-Pitea格式近似了一些积分方程的解。
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引用次数: 0
Tangent Hyperbolic Fluid Flow under Condition of Divergent Channel in the Presence of Porous Medium with Suction/Blowing and Heat Source: Emergence of the Boundary Layer 有吸力/吹风和热源的多孔介质存在下发散通道条件下切线双曲流体流动:边界层的出现
Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.1155/2023/6282130
S. Choudhary, Prasun Choudhary, P. Balachandra
A boundary layer’s appearance in a diverging permeable channel for a non-Newtonian hyperbolic tangent fluid with heat transfer in the availability of a heat source and suction or injection is investigated. By controlling backflow, nonlinearly associated ODEs are derived from flow-regulating PDEs, and the restrictions under which the formation of a boundary layer for tangent hyperbolic fluid emerges are investigated. It is obtained that mass suction is an expression of the Hartmann number, porosity parameter, and power law index parameter, and when it surpasses a specific quantity, flow within a boundary layer is conceivable. “Bvp4c,” a MATLAB solver, is used to obtain numerical solutions of flow problem, and for validation of results obtained via Bvp4c, a comparison is made with the methodology of the Runge–Kutta fourth order. As the Weissenberg number enhances, flow in a boundary layer decreases. Furthermore, radiation and heat source parameters have a significant influence on the overall temperature pattern, and as the findings, the thermal boundary layer enhances.
研究了非牛顿双曲切线流体在热源可用性和吸力或注入条件下传热的发散渗透通道中边界层的外观。通过控制回流,从流动调节偏微分方程推导出非线性关联偏微分方程,并研究了切线双曲流体边界层形成的限制条件。得到质量吸力是Hartmann数、孔隙度参数和幂律指数参数的表达式,当质量吸力超过一定数值时,边界层内的流动是可以想象的。利用MATLAB求解器“Bvp4c”对流动问题进行了数值求解,并与龙格-库塔四阶方法进行了比较,验证了求解结果的正确性。随着Weissenberg数的增大,边界层内的流动减小。此外,辐射和热源参数对整体温度格局有显著影响,并且热边界层增强。
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引用次数: 1
Estimation of Finite Population Mean under Probability-Proportional-to-Size Sampling in the Presence of Extreme Values 极值存在下概率-大小比例抽样下有限总体均值的估计
Pub Date : 2023-06-27 DOI: 10.1155/2023/3064736
R. Ayinzoya, D. Jakperik
This article developed an estimator for finite population mean under probability-proportional-to-size sampling in the presence of extreme values. Theoretical properties such as bias, variance, and consistency are derived. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess the consistency and efficiency of the proposed estimator. It is found that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the competing estimators for all values of c between 0 and 1. The gain in precision of the proposed estimator is much higher than that of its competitors for small values of c. Empirical applications of the proposed estimator are illustrated using three real data sets, and the results revealed that the proposed estimator performed better than the conventional and Sarndal (1972) estimators.
本文提出了在存在极值的情况下,按概率比例抽样的有限总体均值估计。理论性质,如偏差,方差和一致性推导。通过蒙特卡罗模拟来评估所提出的估计器的一致性和效率。研究发现,对于0到1之间的所有c值,所提出的估计量比竞争估计量更有效。对于较小的c值,所提出的估计器的精度增益远高于其竞争对手。使用三个真实数据集说明了所提出的估计器的经验应用,结果表明所提出的估计器比传统估计器和Sarndal(1972)估计器表现得更好。
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引用次数: 0
On Minimum Generalized Degree Distance Index of Cyclic Graphs 关于循环图的最小广义度距离指标
Pub Date : 2023-06-19 DOI: 10.1155/2023/9934992
Nadia Khan, M. Javaid, M. K. Aslam, M. A. Ashebo
Topological index (TI) is a mapping that associates a real number to the under study (molecular) graph which predicts its various physical and chemical properties. The generalized degree distance index is the latest developed TI having compatible significance among the list of distance-based TIs. In this paper, the minimum generalized degree distance of unicyclic, bicyclic, and four cyclic graphs is determined. Mainly, the associated extremal (minimal) graphs are also identified among all the aforesaid classes of graphs.
拓扑指数(TI)是一种映射,它将一个实数与所研究的(分子)图联系起来,预测其各种物理和化学性质。广义度距离指数是在基于距离的指标列表中具有兼容意义的最新发展的指标。本文确定了单环图、双环图和四环图的最小广义度距离。在上述图的所有类别中,也主要识别相关的极值(最小)图。
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引用次数: 0
M v e - Polynomial of Cog-Special Graphs and Types of Fan Graphs M v e -齿轮特殊图的多项式和扇形图的类型
Pub Date : 2023-06-16 DOI: 10.1155/2023/6636380
Kavi B. Rasool, Payman A. Rashed, Ahmed M. Ali
The study of topological indices in graph theory is one of the more important topics, as the scientific development that occurred in the previous century had an important impact by linking it to many chemical and physical properties such as boiling point and melting point. So, our interest in this paper is to study many of the topological indices “generalized indices’ network” for some graphs that have somewhat strange structure, so it is called the cog-graphs of special graphs “molecular network”, by finding their polynomials based on vertex − edge degree then deriving them with respect to x , y , and x   y , respectively, after substitution x = y = 1 of these special graphs are cog-path, cog-cycle, cog-star, cog-wheel, cog-fan, and cog-hand fan graphs; the importance of some types of these graphs is the fact that some vertices have degree four, which corresponds to the stability of some chemical compounds. These topological indices are first and second Zagreb, reduced first and second Zagreb, hyper Zagreb, forgotten, Albertson, and sigma indices.
图论中拓扑指标的研究是比较重要的课题之一,因为上个世纪发生的科学发展将其与许多化学和物理性质(如沸点和熔点)联系起来,产生了重要影响。因此,本文的兴趣是研究一些结构有些奇怪的图的许多拓扑指标“广义指标网络”,因此它被称为特殊图的齿轮图“分子网络”,方法是根据顶点-边度找到它们的多项式,然后分别对x、y、x y求导它们,代入x = y = 1后,这些特殊图有齿轮路径、齿轮环、齿轮星形、齿轮轮、齿轮扇形、齿形、齿形、齿形、齿形、齿形和齿形。还有齿轮扇形图;这些图的某些类型的重要性在于,某些顶点具有四度,这与某些化合物的稳定性相对应。这些拓扑指标是第一和第二萨格勒布,减少第一和第二萨格勒布,超萨格勒布,遗忘,艾伯森和sigma指标。
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引用次数: 0
Global Asymptotic Stability of Nonlinear Strict Feedback System via Backstepping Control Approach 基于反演控制的非线性严格反馈系统的全局渐近稳定性
Pub Date : 2023-06-13 DOI: 10.1155/2023/8637789
Suka Garagara Kinwi, S. Aniaku, Christopher Chukwuma Asogwa, Emmanuel Chukwudi Mbah
The design of controller for nonlinear system in strict feedback form in which the equilibrium point is the origin is the focus of the study. Backstepping is the technique applied. Recursive design is used in the backstepping control technique. Using the backstepping approach, we are given a reasonably simple method to design the control law for a system with these properties. The closed-loop system’s global asymptotic stability is attained by incorporating a Lyapunov function; in this case, a quadratic one was selected for the study. To demonstrate the viability of the technique, we also performed simulations of the system and the designed control with some initial values, and positive results were reported.
以平衡点为原点的严格反馈非线性系统的控制器设计是研究的重点。后退是应用的技术。反步控制技术采用递归设计。利用回溯法,我们给出了一种合理简单的方法来设计具有这些性质的系统的控制律。通过引入Lyapunov函数实现了闭环系统的全局渐近稳定性;在这种情况下,我们选择了一个二次元来进行研究。为了证明该技术的可行性,我们还用一些初始值对系统和设计的控制进行了仿真,并报告了积极的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Connected ϵ -Chainable Sets and Existence Results 连通的λ -链集及其存在性结果
Pub Date : 2023-05-18 DOI: 10.1155/2023/3051602
S. K. Bhandari, S. Chandok, Bishnupada Jana, Radha Binod Das
In the setting of ϵ -chainable metric spaces, we introduce ϵρσ uniformly local weak contraction and obtain some results on the existence of fixed points. To show the veracity of the results, we also constructed some examples.
在可链度量空间的设置中,引入了λ−ρ−σ一致局部弱收缩,得到了关于不动点存在性的一些结果。为了证明结果的准确性,我们还构造了一些例子。
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引用次数: 0
Stability Conditions for a Nonlinear Time Series Model 一类非线性时间序列模型的稳定性条件
Pub Date : 2023-05-08 DOI: 10.1155/2023/5575771
Anas S. Youns, Salim M. Ahmad
This research aims to determine whether the proposed time series model is stable or not. To achieve this, Ozaki’s approximation method was utilized, where the nonlinear part is a function that approaches zero, similar to Ozaki’s imposed function. The study produced examples of both stable and unstable models, and it was discovered that the stability and instability of the model are affected by the enforced optional constants. The researchers used the approximation method to obtain an asymptotic linear model that satisfied the singular point of the proposed model. The study first identified the singular points of the suggested model and then focused on determining the stability conditions, which was the main objective of the study. Last, the stability conditions of the limit cycle were established.
本研究旨在确定所提出的时间序列模型是否稳定。为了实现这一点,使用了Ozaki的近似方法,其中非线性部分是一个接近零的函数,类似于Ozaki的强加函数。研究给出了稳定和不稳定模型的实例,并发现模型的稳定性和不稳定性受到强制可选常数的影响。研究人员利用逼近方法得到了一个满足奇异点的渐近线性模型。研究首先确定了建议模型的奇异点,然后着重于确定稳定性条件,这是研究的主要目的。最后,建立了极限环的稳定性条件。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Int. J. Math. Math. Sci.
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