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The Causes of Changes in Fertility in Northern Namibia 纳米比亚北部生育率变化的原因
Pub Date : 2017-04-27 DOI: 10.23979/FYPR.60262
V. Notkola, H. Siiskonen, R. Shemeikka
The main aim of this study was to analyse fertility change in Ovamboland (North-Central Namibia) (1927–2010) and the Kavango region (North-East Namibia) (1935–1979) in Northern Namibia. According to the results, the fertility change was quite similar in both areas: fertility declined during the 1950s compared to the preceding period, 1935–1949. We can assume that the main reason for this early fertility decline was changes in the number of migrant workers (out-migration), which caused changes in both the marriage age and birth intervals. In both Ovamboland and in the Kavango region, fertility increased from the late 1950s into the early 1960s and the fertility transition started at the end of the 1970s. In both areas, the increase in fertility during thelate 1950s and early 1960s was probably due to the improved health situation. Fertility transition started at the end of the 1970s, but mortality had already started to decline before that. The main causes of this declining fertility at the end of the 1970s and during the 1980s were improved access to modern methods of contraception and probably also the increased level of education. As a result of the HIV epidemic, mortality increased in Ovamboland at the end of the 1990s and early 2000s. The declining fertility in the same period was probably linked to this increased mortality due to AIDS, while the increased fertility after 2008 is, in turn, probably linked to management of the HIV epidemic.
本研究的主要目的是分析纳米比亚北部的Ovamboland(纳米比亚中北部)(1927-2010)和Kavango地区(纳米比亚东北部)(1935-1979)的生育力变化。根据结果,这两个地区的生育率变化非常相似:1950年代的生育率与前一时期(1935-1949年)相比有所下降。我们可以假设,这种早期生育率下降的主要原因是农民工(外迁)数量的变化,这导致了结婚年龄和生育间隔的变化。在Ovamboland和Kavango地区,生育率从20世纪50年代末到60年代初都有所上升,生育率的转变始于20世纪70年代末。在这两个地区,50年代末和60年代初生育率的增加可能是由于健康状况的改善。生育率的转变始于20世纪70年代末,但在此之前死亡率已经开始下降。1970年代末和1980年代生育率下降的主要原因是获得现代避孕方法的机会增加,可能还有教育水平的提高。由于艾滋病毒的流行,奥万博兰的死亡率在1990年代末和2000年代初有所上升。同期生育率的下降可能与艾滋病造成的死亡率上升有关,而2008年以后生育率的上升又可能与艾滋病毒流行的管理有关。
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引用次数: 1
Social, Demographic and Labour Market Related Determinants of Health in the Adult European Population 欧洲成年人口健康的社会、人口和劳动力市场相关决定因素
Pub Date : 2017-04-27 DOI: 10.23979/FYPR.56932
Ágnes Sántha
This paper identifies the social, demographic and labour market related determinants of the state of health and assesses the magnitude of their impact within the European adult population. The research is based on a statistical analysis on the data of the European Social Survey (ESS), round 7, 2014/2015. Subjective socioeconomic situation and partnership status are being identified as the most influential social determinants of health. Results also illuminate how work-life-balance determines health. People suffering from work-life-imbalance are more likely to become ill than those with more free time and flexible working hours.
本文确定了与健康状况有关的社会、人口和劳动力市场决定因素,并评估了它们对欧洲成年人口的影响程度。该研究基于对2014/2015年第7轮欧洲社会调查(ESS)数据的统计分析。主观社会经济状况和伙伴关系状况被认为是影响健康的最重要的社会决定因素。研究结果还阐明了工作与生活的平衡如何决定健康。工作与生活不平衡的人比那些有更多自由时间和灵活工作时间的人更容易生病。
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引用次数: 1
Spatial trends of fertility rates in Finland between 1980 and 2014 1980年至2014年芬兰生育率的空间趋势
Pub Date : 2017-04-27 DOI: 10.23979/FYPR.63337
Lassi Lainiala, Venla Berg
Recent research has shown that in many Western countries fertility rates are highest in suburban areas and lower in urban and rural areas. Here, we illustrate the changing patterns of spatial fertility in Finland between 1980 and 2014. Fertility in Finland started conforming the high suburban pattern during the 1990’s. This interestingly predates the first large scale urban sprawl (i.e., positive net migration in suburban areas) in the first decade of the 21st century in Finland.
最近的研究表明,在许多西方国家,郊区的生育率最高,城市和农村的生育率较低。在这里,我们展示了1980年至2014年间芬兰空间生育率的变化模式。20世纪90年代,芬兰的生育率开始符合高郊区模式。有趣的是,这早于21世纪头十年芬兰第一次大规模城市扩张(即郊区的正净移民)。
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引用次数: 2
Suicide Rates in Greece: Comparing Mortality Data with Police Reporting Statistics and Investigating Recent Trends 希腊自杀率:将死亡率数据与警方报告统计数据进行比较并调查近期趋势
Pub Date : 2017-04-01 DOI: 10.23979/FYPR.58961
Alexandra Tragaki, Konstantinos Lenos
This paper analyzes recent suicide trends in Greece. It relies on two separate databases, vital statistics and police records, the latter never having been explored before. Those datasets present a different picture about the suicide rates and trends, confirming the crucial importance of data reliability and consistency in time trend analysis. Frequencies and ratios were calculated and compared using paired sample t-tests. Overtime trend changes were detected applying segment regression analysis on both data collections. Our findings suggest that there are important differences between vital and police statistics on suicides. At national level, over the period 1990–2013, vital statistics reported an average of 7 percent more suicides, annually. Differences were more pronounced among women and younger ages. Both datasets confirm a change in total suicide trends during recent recession, but police data analysis supports that increases are less impressive than vital statistics claim.
本文分析了希腊最近的自杀趋势。它依赖于两个独立的数据库,即生命统计和警察记录,后者以前从未被探索过。这些数据集呈现了关于自杀率和趋势的不同画面,证实了数据可靠性和一致性在时间趋势分析中的至关重要性。使用配对样本t检验计算和比较频率和比率。对两个数据集应用分段回归分析检测到加班趋势变化。我们的研究结果表明,生命统计数据和警方关于自杀的统计数据之间存在重要差异。在国家层面,在1990-2013年期间,生命统计数据显示,自杀人数平均每年增加7%。女性和年轻人之间的差异更为明显。这两个数据集都证实了最近经济衰退期间总自杀趋势的变化,但警方数据分析支持这一增长不如生命统计数据所声称的那么令人印象深刻。
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引用次数: 3
Cooperation and Conflict. Sibling Relations in Contemporary Societies. 合作与冲突。当代社会的兄弟姐妹关系。
Pub Date : 2016-09-09 DOI: 10.23979/fypr.59180
A. Tanskanen, M. Danielsbacka
This study investigates sibling and “extended sibling” relations. Extended sibling relations refer to relations between nieces or nephews and aunts or uncles. Both cooperation and conflict between kin are investigated. We use an evolutionary family sociological framework for analysing kin relations in present day Finland and the UK. Cooperation is measured by kin support, emotional closeness, and contact frequency, while the outcome of sibling conflict is measured by toddlers’ unintended injuries, young adolescents’ reports of how much siblings picked and hurt each other, and adults’ self-reported disagreements with siblings. The study includes seven original articles and an introductory chapter. Article I shows that 3-year-old British children who live in the same household with their full siblings have a lower risk of unintended home injuries than do children who live with their full and half siblings or only with their half siblings. Article II finds that 11-year-old British children living with their full siblings only were more likely to report hurting or picking between siblings compared with children who live with their half siblings only. Article III describes two generations of adult Finns and shows that both younger (mean age 36 years old) and older (mean age 65 years) generations have more contacts with full than half siblings and more contacts with the children of full siblings than with children of half siblings. Based on article IV, older and younger Finns have more contact with their sisters’ children compared to their brothers’ children. Article V finds that childless younger women in Finland provide more childcare to their siblings’ children than do younger mothers. However, mothers and childless women provide equal amounts of support to their aunts and uncles. According to article VI, younger Finnish adults who have half siblings are more likely to have encountered unequal maternal treatment than younger adults who have full siblings only. Article VII shows that younger and older Finns are more likely to have conflicts with their full siblings than with their half siblings. Combined, these results show that kin relations tend to differ both between maternal and paternal kin and between full and half siblings. Moreover, kin support is more likely to flow from older individuals to younger ones than vice versa. Finally, parental unequal treatment seems to shape relations between siblings. At the end of the introduction chapter, policy and practical implications of the results are discussed.
这项研究调查了兄弟姐妹和“扩展兄弟姐妹”关系。延伸的兄弟姐妹关系是指侄女或侄子和阿姨或叔叔之间的关系。研究了亲属之间的合作和冲突。我们使用进化家庭社会学框架来分析当今芬兰和英国的亲属关系。合作是通过亲属支持、情感亲密度和接触频率来衡量的,而兄弟姐妹冲突的结果是通过幼儿的意外伤害、青少年的兄弟姐妹互相伤害的程度以及成年人自我报告的与兄弟姐妹的分歧来衡量的。该研究包括七篇原创文章和一章导论。第1条表明,与同父异母的兄弟姐妹或只与同父异母的兄弟姐妹生活在一起的3岁英国儿童发生意外家庭伤害的风险低于与同父异母的兄弟姐妹生活在一起的儿童。第二篇文章发现,与只与同父异母的兄弟姐妹生活在一起的11岁英国儿童相比,他们更有可能伤害或选择兄弟姐妹。第三篇文章描述了两代成年芬兰人,并表明年轻一代(平均年龄36岁)和年长一代(平均年龄65岁)与同父异母的兄弟姐妹有更多的接触,与同父异母的兄弟姐妹的孩子有更多的接触。根据第4条,年长和年轻的芬兰人与姐妹的孩子相比,与兄弟的孩子有更多的接触。第五条发现,在芬兰,没有孩子的年轻女性比年轻母亲为兄弟姐妹的孩子提供更多的照顾。然而,母亲和没有孩子的妇女为她们的叔叔阿姨提供同等数量的支持。根据第6条,有同父异母兄弟姐妹的年轻芬兰成年人比只有同父异母兄弟姐妹的年轻成年人更有可能遇到不平等的母亲待遇。第七条表明,相比同父异母的兄弟姐妹,年轻和年长的芬兰人更容易与同父异母的兄弟姐妹发生冲突。综上所述,这些结果表明,亲属关系在母系和父系亲属之间,以及在同父异母的兄弟姐妹之间往往是不同的。此外,亲属支持更有可能从老年人流向年轻人,而不是相反。最后,父母的不平等对待似乎塑造了兄弟姐妹之间的关系。在引言部分的最后,讨论了研究结果的政策和现实意义。
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引用次数: 5
Social Upheaval, Poverty and the Latvian Demographic Crisis 社会动荡、贫困和拉脱维亚人口危机
Pub Date : 2016-03-10 DOI: 10.23979/fypr.49516
Alfred Wong
Latvia has been suffering a substantial decrease in population since the early 1990s. There appears to have been little or no detailed analysis of the genesis of this decline in population. The major political event occurring at the beginning of the population decline was the rapid transitioning from socialism to capitalism. This study has revealed the causes of severe population decline to be a combination of steadily-declining birth rate, sharply rising high death rate, and mass emigration of people to wealthier European states. The cross-over of birth rate and death rate could be attributed to the tumultuous societal upheavals in the changeover from the socialistic protective-welfare system to a free-market capitalistic economic system. In particular, this traumatic event had probably affected the physical and mental health of many people to result in premature deaths from, among other things, consequential morbidity, accidents, homicides and suicides. Practicable remedies to arrest the continuing trend of precipitous decline in the population might include a) repairing the failures of the current modality of national health care, b) creating higher paying jobs in Latvia to entice prospective young emigrants to stay in Latvia, and c) repatriating of recent Latvian emigres.
自1990年代初以来,拉脱维亚的人口一直在大幅减少。似乎很少或根本没有对这种人口下降的原因进行详细的分析。人口下降初期发生的重大政治事件是从社会主义向资本主义的迅速过渡。这项研究揭示了严重的人口下降的原因是稳定下降的出生率,急剧上升的高死亡率,以及大量人口移民到较富裕的欧洲国家。出生率和死亡率的交叉可以归因于从社会主义保护福利制度向自由市场资本主义经济制度转变过程中动荡的社会动荡。特别是,这一创伤性事件可能影响了许多人的身心健康,导致过早死亡,除其他外,原因是随之而来的发病率、事故、他杀和自杀。制止人口持续急剧下降趋势的切实可行的补救办法可能包括:a)修补目前国家保健模式的缺陷;b)在拉脱维亚创造高薪工作,以吸引潜在的年轻移民留在拉脱维亚;c)遣返最近的拉脱维亚移民。
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引用次数: 3
Emerging Joint Expertise? : Multiagency Collaboration Described in Local Integration Programmes in Finland 新兴的联合专长?芬兰地方融合方案中描述的多机构合作
Pub Date : 2016-03-10 DOI: 10.23979/FYPR.49665
Sari Vanhanen
Multiagency collaboration is seen as an essential way of working to promote the two-way integration of newcomers and a receiving society. The term multiagency collaboration underlines the diversity of actors in cooperation. Cross-sectorial networks are mentioned in higher strategies as well as in the local programmes or plans for action. But how is multiagency work structured at the local level? This article looks at the examples of multiagency collaboration in the written documents of local integration programmes in the Finnish context. The examples are chosen from different areas. It seems that collaboration is widely emphasized as a goal or a working method. Whereas expertise in integration work is relatively novel in Finland, more analytical awareness of multiagency collaboration could support learning in networks and developing hybrid practices in this emerging field of knowledge.
多机构合作被视为促进新移民和接收社会双向融合的重要方式。多机构协作一词强调了合作行为体的多样性。高级战略以及地方方案或行动计划都提到了跨部门网络。但是,在地方一级,多机构工作是如何组织的呢?本文着眼于芬兰当地融合方案书面文件中多机构合作的例子。这些例子选自不同的领域。合作似乎被广泛强调为一个目标或一种工作方法。尽管整合工作方面的专业知识在芬兰相对较新,但对多机构协作的更多分析意识可以支持网络学习,并在这一新兴知识领域发展混合实践。
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引用次数: 1
Book review - kirja-arvostelu 书评-书评
Pub Date : 2016-03-10 DOI: 10.23979/fypr.55592
Emma Terama
Antti Latvala & Karri Silventoinen (toim.) Kayttaytymisgenetiikka. Geeneista yhteiskuntaan. Gaudeamus 2014.
Antti Latvala和Karri Silventoinen(编辑)社会基因。Gaudeamus 2014。
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引用次数: 0
Indifferent Gender Preferences among Childless Beijing Citizens 北京无子女人群性别偏好差异研究
Pub Date : 2016-03-10 DOI: 10.23979/FYPR.51490
S. Basten, G. Verropoulou, M. Xiaohong, Yanni Ping
Son preference, leading to skewed sex ratios at birth, is an important feature of contemporary Chinese demography, as well as being a critical policy issue. Using a 2006 representative survey, this article explores preferences for boys and girls among childless young adults in a district of Beijing who have a stated one child as their ideal number of children (though they may be eligible to bear more). The descriptive analysis finds no evidence of son-preference; rather an overall indifference to gender. A multivariate analysis provides some indicative evidence of indifference regarding predictors of desiring a girl, a boy or either. gs.
重男轻女导致出生性别比失衡,这是当代中国人口统计学的一个重要特征,也是一个关键的政策问题。本文利用2006年的一项代表性调查,探讨了北京某地区没有孩子的年轻人对男孩和女孩的偏好,他们的理想数量是一个孩子(尽管他们可能有资格生育更多的孩子)。描述性分析没有发现重男轻女的证据;而是对性别的整体漠视。一项多变量分析提供了一些指示性的证据,表明人们对女孩、男孩或两者都想要的预测因素漠不关心。gs。
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引用次数: 0
The Road to Parenthood: Income and First Births in Sweden 为人父母之路:瑞典的收入和第一胎
Pub Date : 2016-03-10 DOI: 10.23979/FYPR.48412
Ernesto Silva
This paper considers the effect of income on the risk of having the first births in Sweden from 1968 to 2009. Variations by gender are given particular atention. The study follows men and women from the moment they turn 18 until they enter parenthood and it is based on register-based data covering the entire population of Sweden. Complementary log-log models show that there is a positive association between income and the risk of childbearing. The association gets stronger over time and the differences between men and women diminish. Gender differences appear when the income effect is related to the demand for work in the economy. An income above the median does not increase the risk of childbearing for women when the demand for work is relatively high.
本文考虑了1968年至2009年瑞典收入对生育第一胎风险的影响。性别差异受到特别关注。这项研究从男性和女性年满18岁开始,一直追踪到他们成为父母,并基于覆盖瑞典全体人口的登记数据。互补对数-对数模型表明,收入与生育风险之间存在正相关关系。随着时间的推移,这种联系会越来越强,男女之间的差异会逐渐缩小。当收入效应与经济中的工作需求相关时,性别差异就出现了。在工作需求相对较高的情况下,收入高于中位数并不会增加女性生育的风险。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Finnish Yearbook of Population Research
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