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Socioeconomic resources and family formation among young Finnish adults 芬兰年轻人的社会经济资源和家庭形成
Pub Date : 2023-06-08 DOI: 10.23979/fypr.130512
A. Miettinen
How do individuals’ employment or financial resources affect childbearing in Finland? Are these resources equally important to men and women, or in couples? This study examines the relationship between individuals’ socioeconomic resources – employment, education, and income– and entry into parenthood. The results show that employment stability is a key prerequisite for family formation among young adults in Finland. Being unemployed or having fewer financialresources is related to postponement of parenthood in most population groups, notably among those who are approaching age 30, or above it. A lack of economic resources appears to be an obstacle to family formation at several stages: first through union formation, and next, within unions. The associations are very similar among men and women, indicating that policies that support gender equality in employment are advantageous to childbearing.
在芬兰,个人的就业或经济资源如何影响生育?这些资源对男人和女人,还是对夫妻来说同样重要?这项研究考察了个人的社会经济资源——就业、教育和收入——与为人父母之间的关系。结果表明,就业稳定是芬兰年轻人组建家庭的关键先决条件。在大多数人口群体中,失业或经济资源较少与推迟为人父母有关,尤其是在接近30岁或30岁以上的人群中。经济资源的缺乏似乎是家庭组建的几个阶段的障碍:首先是通过组建工会,其次是在工会内部。男女之间的关联非常相似,这表明支持就业性别平等的政策有利于生育。
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引用次数: 0
Expectations, fears and aspirations of parents from Finnish-African families 芬兰-非洲家庭父母的期望、恐惧和愿望
Pub Date : 2022-06-27 DOI: 10.23979/fypr.109407
Mathias E. Ebot, Päivi Armila
This article analyses expectations, fears, and aspirations of parents from Finnish-African families who raise their children in Finland. Focusing on parents’ interviews narratives, we explore their ideas and expectations concerning their children’s future. As parents in general, they have hopes and responsibilities connected with their children’s future happiness and success. Because of the multiculturalism and multiple layers of difference of their families and of the fathers’ (black men from sub-Saharan Africa) origins and skin colour of the children, they also have special fears in their parenthood. In the analysis orientations regarding happiness, life satisfaction and freedom of children are considered as parental duties of these adults. They want to play an important role in influencing their children’s future. As opposite to their fears, they bring along an idea of their children representing a new cosmopolitan generation who have capabilities to act in a cosmopolitan future and change the society into that direction as well.
本文分析了在芬兰抚养孩子的芬兰裔非洲家庭父母的期望、恐惧和愿望。我们以父母的访谈故事为中心,探讨他们对孩子未来的想法和期望。作为一般的父母,他们对孩子未来的幸福和成功抱有希望和责任。由于他们的多元文化和家庭以及父亲(来自撒哈拉以南非洲的黑人)的出身和孩子的肤色的多层差异,他们对为人父母也有特殊的恐惧。在分析中,儿童的幸福感、生活满意度和自由度被认为是这些成年人的父母职责。他们希望在影响孩子的未来方面发挥重要作用。与他们的恐惧相反,他们带来了一种观念,即他们的孩子代表着新的国际化一代,他们有能力在国际化的未来采取行动,并将社会朝着这个方向改变。
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引用次数: 0
Future population ageing and productivity in Finland under different education and fertility scenarios 不同教育和生育率情景下芬兰未来人口老龄化和生产力
Pub Date : 2022-06-27 DOI: 10.23979/fypr.119666
G. Marois, A. Rotkirch, W. Lutz
This study projects different dependency ratios under various scenarios of future fertility and tertiary education in Finland to assess how the economic consequences of population aging depend on these trends. Applying a multidimensional demographic approach through a discrete-time microsimulation model, we project the newly introduced productivity-weighted labour force dependency ratio for Finnish scenarios until 2060 and compared it with the labour force dependency ratio and the traditional age dependency ratio. Results show that population aging looks less daunting when considering labour force dependency ratios as compared to purely age-based ratios, yet all measures and scenarios show a deterioration of the dependency ratio. While the old age dependency ratio is projected to increase by 73 per cent, the labour force dependency ratio would increase by 32 per cent, and the productivity weighted labour force dependency ratio by 28 per cent. Provided a more rapid increase in educational attainment, the last indicator is expected to increase less, with 21 per cent until 2060. Should the stalled trend in educational achievement of the 2010s continue, there would be very modest future gains in the productivity-weighted ratio. In other words, the consequences of population ageing look less dramatic for economic productivity, were Finnish men to become as educated as Finnish women. Of the three fertility scenarios considered, a total fertility rate of 2.0 is most advantageous and a low fertility of 1.2 least optimal for adult dependency ratios, but only after 2050.  Interestingly, a combination of recovered fertility to 1.6 with a more rapid educational expansion would be better for productivity than only raising fertility to 2.0. Boosting educational levels would hence mitigate the negative effects of a shrinking labour force more than increasing fertility within reasonable bounds. Our results suggest that implementation of the current government goals for educational expansion, combined with a not unrealistic recovery of total fertility rates to around 1.6, would both clearly alleviate the worsening dependency ratio. We conclude that although there is no quick fix to the economic effects of population ageing, these can be proactively mitigated with different and complementing policies, and taking into account multidimensional population trends.
本研究在芬兰未来生育率和高等教育的不同情景下预测了不同的抚养比,以评估人口老龄化的经济后果如何依赖于这些趋势。通过离散时间微观模拟模型,运用多维人口统计学方法,我们预测了芬兰2060年之前新引入的生产率加权劳动力抚养比,并将其与劳动力抚养比和传统年龄抚养比进行了比较。结果显示,与单纯以年龄为基础的比率相比,考虑劳动力抚养比时,人口老龄化看起来不那么令人生畏,但所有措施和情景都显示抚养比在恶化。虽然老年抚养比率预计将增加73%,但劳动力抚养比率将增加32%,生产力加权劳动力抚养比率将增加28%。如果受教育程度提高得更快,预计最后一项指标的增幅较小,到2060年将达到21%。如果2010年代教育成就停滞不前的趋势继续下去,未来生产率加权比率的增长将非常有限。换句话说,如果芬兰男性的受教育程度与芬兰女性相当,那么人口老龄化对经济生产力的影响就不会那么大。在考虑的三种生育率情景中,总生育率为2.0是最有利的,低生育率为1.2是最不理想的,但只有在2050年之后。有趣的是,将生育率恢复到1.6与更快的教育扩张相结合,将比仅将生育率提高到2.0更好地提高生产率。因此,提高教育水平比在合理范围内提高生育率更能减轻劳动力萎缩的负面影响。我们的研究结果表明,实施当前政府的教育扩张目标,再加上将总生育率恢复到1.6左右,这并非不切实际,两者都将明显缓解日益恶化的抚养比。我们的结论是,虽然没有快速解决人口老龄化的经济影响的方法,但这些可以通过不同的和互补的政策来积极缓解,并考虑到多维人口趋势。
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引用次数: 1
Understanding inclusive entrepreneurship 理解包容性创业
Pub Date : 2022-06-27 DOI: 10.23979/fypr.120379
Nafisa Yeasmin, Waliul Hasanat
A recent OECD report recognises that the limited scope for immigrant women to integrate into mainstream Finnish society has kept them out of the labour market. In fact, a woman with migrant background faces several challenges to get access to the Finnish labour force and this has prompted them to become self-employed in small business, particularly in the northern part of Finland. However, establishing a small business and its operation induces diverse problems in this remote, mainly rural region. An inclusive entrepreneurship policy may support improving their condition in entrepreneurship. The study explores the main factors hindering the financial and socio-cultural inclusion of women immigrants in Northern Finland. A thematic analysis of cultural and economic inclusivity, based on descriptive phenomenology, helps understand and reconstruct a policy of inclusive societies in the context of rural entrepreneurship.
经合组织最近的一份报告承认,移民妇女融入芬兰主流社会的范围有限,使她们无法进入劳动力市场。事实上,具有移民背景的妇女在进入芬兰劳动力队伍方面面临着一些挑战,这促使她们成为小企业的个体经营者,尤其是在芬兰北部。然而,在这个以农村为主的偏远地区,建立小企业及其运营引发了各种各样的问题。包容性创业政策可能有助于改善他们的创业条件。该研究探讨了阻碍芬兰北部女性移民融入金融和社会文化的主要因素。基于描述性现象学对文化和经济包容性进行主题分析,有助于理解和重建农村创业背景下的包容性社会政策。
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引用次数: 1
Kirja-arvio 账面估计数
Pub Date : 2022-06-27 DOI: 10.23979/fypr.120388
Pekka Kettunen
Saukkonen, Pasi: Suomi omaksi kodiksi. Kotouttamispolitiikka ja sen kehittämismahdollisuudet.(2020)
索科宁,帕西:芬兰作为一个家。一体化政策及其发展潜力。(2020)
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引用次数: 0
regional migration system as a lens for studying migration and development 区域移民制度是研究移民与发展的一个视角
Pub Date : 2022-06-27 DOI: 10.23979/fypr.120375
Mika Raunio
The paper revisits the migration-system approach, offering a more nuanced conceptual device for focused study of migration and, especially, region-level development. The paper outlines the main approaches to migration systems and links the conceptual framework to system-based discussion of regional development. The tentative conceptual lens formulated for studying the role of migration in regional development, and vice versa, is the regional migration system, or RMS. This conceptual focusing device isdeveloped and tentatively tested in the specific case of Finland’s Seinäjoki city-region. The shape of a regional migration system is recognised by means of statistical data, while qualitative data aid in exploring the system drivers, helping explain their shapeand magnitude. Also, the paper discusses the contributions of the multilevel perspective and transition-based approach entailed for applying the RMS concept. The conclusions point to several further applications for the conceptual framework introduced.
本文重新审视了移民系统方法,为重点研究移民,特别是区域一级的发展提供了一种更细致的概念手段。该文件概述了移民系统的主要方法,并将概念框架与基于系统的区域发展讨论联系起来。为研究移民在区域发展中的作用(反之亦然)而制定的暂定概念视角是区域移民系统。这种概念聚焦装置是在芬兰塞纳霍基市地区的具体案例中开发和初步测试的。区域移民系统的形状是通过统计数据来识别的,而定性数据有助于探索系统驱动因素,有助于解释其形状和规模。此外,本文还讨论了应用RMS概念所需的多层次视角和基于转换的方法的贡献。结论指出了所介绍的概念框架的几个进一步应用。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the Accuracy of National Population Projections 评估国家人口预测的准确性
Pub Date : 2022-06-27 DOI: 10.23979/fypr.109057
Michael J Thomas, A. Syse, A. Rogne, R. Gleditsch
Few producers of official population projections provide regular evaluations of past projection inaccuracies. This paper assesses deviations between the projected and registered total population for Norway (1996–2018), as well as deviations in the age structure, total fertility rate and number of births, period life expectancy at birth and number of deaths, and net international migration. Projected life expectancy was consistently lower than the real development. Few systematic deviations were observed for fertility up to 2009, but thereafter fertility has been consistently overprojected. However, the deviations between projected and realised trends in births and deaths have been relatively small as compared to those for net international migration. The projections produced between 1996–2005 underestimated long-term population growth due primarily to the unforeseen increase in immigration following EU expansion in 2004. More recent projections contain no consistent under- or overprojection of net migration and the deviations for the total population have been moderate.
官方人口预测的编制者很少对过去预测的不准确之处进行定期评估。本文评估了挪威(1996-2018)预计总人口与登记总人口之间的偏差,以及年龄结构、总生育率和出生人数、出生预期寿命和死亡人数以及净国际移民的偏差。预期寿命一直低于实际发展。截至2009年,生育率几乎没有出现系统性偏差,但此后生育率一直过高。然而,与国际净移民相比,出生和死亡的预测趋势与实际趋势之间的偏差相对较小。1996-2005年的预测低估了长期人口增长,主要是由于2004年欧盟扩张后移民意外增加。最近的预测没有一致的净移民预测不足或过度,总人口的偏差是适度的。
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引用次数: 0
Depopulation of Ukraine 乌克兰人口减少
Pub Date : 2022-06-27 DOI: 10.23979/fypr.116071
D. Coleman
Blessed by its geology but a prisoner of its geography, the inhabitants of Ukraine have suffered repeated destructive depopulation. The population loss in the Ukraine 1914–21 was over five million. The second modern depopulation culminated in 1932 during Stalin’s manmade famine, with estimated total population losses of 4.6 million people. A third depopulation followed as over 7 million Ukrainians lost their lives in the Second World War.Between the censuses of 1959 and 1970 population of Ukraine recovered briskly. Total fertility remained at about replacement level until the end of the Soviet Union, then declined. A relatively strong recovery of fertility was reversed in 2012, presumably as a consequence of the Russian invasion in Eastern Ukraine, and total fertility dropped to 1.2.The population in early 2022 was around 37 million. The Ukrainian global diaspora is one of the most widely-distributed populations in the world, with 6.1 million Ukrainians living abroad already in 2020. After Russia’s invasion in February 2022 thousands have died and millions have been forced to flee. The article ends by considering how Ukraine’s demographic situation might evolve in the future.This issue of the Yearbook was finalised after Russia attacked Ukraine the 24th of February, 2022. In this invited reflection, professor David Coleman provides an overview of Ukraine’s demographic history and previous challenges. (Editor’s note)
乌克兰的地理环境得天独厚,但却受制于地理环境,乌克兰居民一再遭受破坏性的人口减少。1914–21年乌克兰的人口损失超过500万。第二次现代人口减少在1932年斯大林的人为饥荒期间达到顶峰,估计总人口损失为460万。第三次人口减少之后,超过700万乌克兰人在第二次世界大战中丧生。在1959年至1970年的人口普查期间,乌克兰人口迅速恢复。总生育率一直保持在更替水平,直到苏联解体,然后下降。生育率相对强劲的复苏在2012年发生了逆转,可能是由于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰东部,总生育率降至1.2。2022年初的人口约为3700万。乌克兰全球侨民是世界上分布最广泛的人口之一,2020年已有610万乌克兰人居住在国外。2022年2月俄罗斯入侵后,数千人死亡,数百万人被迫逃离。文章最后考虑了乌克兰的人口状况在未来可能会如何演变。本期年鉴是在2022年2月24日俄罗斯袭击乌克兰后定稿的。在这次受邀的反思中,大卫·科尔曼教授概述了乌克兰的人口历史和以前的挑战。(编者按)
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引用次数: 0
Rural-Urban Migration Pathways and Residential Segregation in the Helsinki Region 赫尔辛基地区的城乡移民路径与居住隔离
Pub Date : 2021-01-11 DOI: 10.23979/FYPR.96011
Aleksi Karhula, Patricia McMullin, Elina Sutela, Sanna Ala-Mantila, Hannu Ruonavaara
Migration and residential segregation are intrinsically linked. However, little attention has been given to internal migration and its relationship with socioeconomic segregation. In this study, we illustrate the pathways individuals take between rural and urban settings and examine the association between these pathways and segregation in the Helsinki region. We use register data from Statistics Finland and sequence analysis to illustrate the mobility patterns of two 1980s birth cohorts aged 7 to 37. The majority of Finnish rural-urban pathways are associated with either a childhood spent in an urban area or a move to an urban area in young adulthood. We show that an even larger majority of people living in Helsinki at age 37 spent their childhood there or in other urban environments. We find that internal migrants are positively selected for education and income. A childhood in the outer urban regions of a city reduces the probability of living in low income neighbourhoods when controlling for socioeconomic status and family structure. We found no association between rural childhood and living in poor neighbourhoods.
移民和居住隔离有着内在的联系。然而,人们很少关注国内移民及其与社会经济隔离的关系。在这项研究中,我们展示了个人在农村和城市环境之间的路径,并考察了这些路径与赫尔辛基地区种族隔离之间的联系。我们使用芬兰统计局的登记数据和序列分析来说明20世纪80年代两个7至37岁出生队列的流动模式。芬兰的大多数农村-城市道路要么与在城市度过的童年有关,要么与成年后搬到城市有关。我们发现,在赫尔辛基生活的37岁的人中,有更多的人在那里或其他城市环境中度过了童年。我们发现,国内移民在教育和收入方面受到了积极的选择。在控制社会经济地位和家庭结构的情况下,城市外围地区的童年会降低生活在低收入社区的概率。我们没有发现农村儿童与生活在贫困社区之间的联系。
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引用次数: 4
The Association between Pre- and Post-Migration Wellbeing Factors with Integration among Russian, Somali, and Kurdish Origin Women in Finland 芬兰俄罗斯、索马里和库尔德裔妇女移民前后幸福感因素与融合之间的关系
Pub Date : 2021-01-11 DOI: 10.23979/FYPR.95509
Wiam Elfadl, E. Lilja, N. Skogberg, K. Selling, A. Castañeda
Pre- and post-migration related factors are likely to influence integration outcomes of migrants. This study aimed to investigate which pre-migration factors (basic education and potentially traumatic experiences) and post-migration wellbeing factors (quality of life and loneliness) are associated with integration outcomes (employment status, language skills, voting, media use, having host country’s native friends, participation inleisure activities) of migrant background men and women. The Finnish Migrant Health and Wellbeing Study (Maamu) was used, including working-aged adults of Russian, Somali, and Kurdish origin. Each integration outcome was analysed by each predictive factor with logistic regression, separately for the three groups and separately for men and women. The integration outcomes were somewhat differently associated with pre- and post-migration factors in the different groups. All these aspects are important to be taken into account in integration discourse to promote both integration and social wellbeing.
移民前和移民后的相关因素可能影响移民的融入结果。本研究旨在调查哪些移民前因素(基础教育和潜在的创伤经历)和移民后健康因素(生活质量和孤独感)与移民背景男性和女性的融合结果(就业状况、语言技能、投票、媒体使用、拥有东道国的本土朋友、参与休闲活动)相关。采用芬兰移民健康和福利研究(Maamu),包括俄罗斯、索马里和库尔德裔的工作年龄成年人。每个整合结果通过每个预测因素进行逻辑回归分析,分别针对三组,分别针对男性和女性。在不同的群体中,整合结果与迁移前和迁移后因素的关联有所不同。所有这些方面都是重要的,必须考虑到一体化的话语,以促进一体化和社会福祉。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Finnish Yearbook of Population Research
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