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Does the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Services Exports in Emerging Economies? 出口导向型增长假说是否适用于新兴经济体的服务出口?
Pub Date : 2021-05-30 DOI: 10.17015/EJBE.2021.027.04
Okpeku Lilian Onose, Osman Nuri Aras
The export-led growth hypothesis states a positive relationship between the growth of exports and long-run economic growth. This study examines the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis of services exports in 5 emerging economies, including Brazil, India, Nigeria, China, and South Africa (BINCS), for the period of 1980-2019. The study employs the panel mean group autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure to identify a causal relationship between services exports and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The findings show that the export-led growth hypothesis in services only has a positive effect on economic growth in the short run while other variables, including foreign direct investment (FDI), gross capital formation, and labour, increase economic growth in the long run. Hence, the emerging countries should focus more on internal investment to boost growth in the long and short run.
出口导向型增长假说认为出口增长与长期经济增长之间存在正相关关系。本研究考察了1980-2019年期间巴西、印度、尼日利亚、中国和南非等5个新兴经济体服务出口出口导向型增长假说的有效性。本研究采用面板均值组自回归分布滞后(ARDL)程序来确定服务出口与人均国内生产总值(GDP)之间的因果关系。研究结果表明,服务业的出口导向增长假说仅在短期内对经济增长有积极影响,而其他变量,包括外国直接投资(FDI)、资本形成总额和劳动力,在长期内促进经济增长。因此,新兴国家应更多地关注内部投资,以促进长期和短期增长。
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引用次数: 3
Dynamic Relation Between Economic Growth, Stock Market Depth and Macroeconomic Variables of Bangladesh 孟加拉国经济增长、股市深度与宏观经济变量的动态关系
Pub Date : 2020-11-18 DOI: 10.17015/ejbe.2020.026.03
Mostafai Ali
This study explores the dynamic relation between economic growth and stock market depth in the presence of three more macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate, inflation and interest rate of Bangladesh. We use Johansen and Juselius (1990) test of co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to detect the possible short-run and long-run causal relation among the selected economic forces. The results of the study evidence that the lagged error-correct term of GDP (i.e., the proxy of economic growth) is found statistically significant in all three models. This manifest that GDP tends to converge to its long-run equilibrium path in response to changes in its regressors. But we find a complex network of causal linkage between the variables in the short-run. The findings of this study are of particular interest and importance to policymakers, financial managers, financial analysts and investors dealing with the Bangladesh economy and the Bangladesh stock market.
本研究探讨了孟加拉国在汇率、通货膨胀和利率等三个宏观经济指标存在的情况下,经济增长与股市深度之间的动态关系。我们使用Johansen和Juselius(1990)的协整检验和向量误差修正模型(VECM)来检测所选经济力量之间可能的短期和长期因果关系。研究结果表明,GDP的滞后误差修正项(即经济增长的代理)在所有三个模型中都具有统计学意义。这表明,随着其回归量的变化,GDP趋向于收敛于其长期均衡路径。但我们发现,在短期内,变量之间存在复杂的因果联系网络。这项研究的结果是特别感兴趣和重要的政策制定者,财务经理,金融分析师和投资者处理孟加拉国经济和孟加拉国股票市场。
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引用次数: 0
Prospects for the Regional Cooperation in Central Asia 中亚区域合作展望
Pub Date : 2020-11-18 DOI: 10.17015/ejbe.2020.026.01
Nurlan Nurseiit
The purpose of the article is to study the regional cooperation of the countries of Central Asia (CA) among themselves and with other regions, as well as finding ways to improve it. The study revealed that regional cooperation is still at a low level. Significant trading partners of Central Asia are currently the EU, China, Russia, and Turkey. The participation of the countries of the region in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Chinese "Belt and Road" initiative (BRI) did not lead to the expected results. The observed decline in trade in Central Asia is associated mainly with a decline in world prices for raw materials and not a change in physical volumes.
本文的目的是研究中亚国家之间以及与其他地区之间的区域合作,并寻求改善这种合作的途径。研究表明,区域合作仍处于较低水平。目前,中亚的重要贸易伙伴是欧盟、中国、俄罗斯和土耳其。本地区国家参与欧亚经济联盟(EAEU)和中国“一带一路”倡议(BRI)并未取得预期结果。中亚贸易的下降主要与世界原材料价格的下降有关,而与实物数量的变化无关。
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引用次数: 2
Is 'WTO-Plus' a Policy Option for India-China Agriculture Trade? A CGE Analysis “wto +”是印中农业贸易的政策选择吗?CGE分析
Pub Date : 2020-11-18 DOI: 10.17015/ejbe.2020.026.02
Shahid Ahmed, Saba Ismail
This paper examines the effect of bilateral tariff reduction in the agriculture sector between India and China. The results are evaluated in terms of welfare, output, employment and the potential trade flows between India and China using the GTAPmodel. The present study suggests that partial tariff reduction on imports of agricultural commodities between India and China may be welfare-enhancing for both India and China while complete tariff reduction on imports of agricultural commodities may have welfare loss for India, though there will be substantial welfare gains for China. The study reveals that welfare gains for China are larger in comparison to India. The study suggests that a well calculated and strategically negotiated tariff reduction in the agriculture sector may create a win-win situation for both partners. The study further argues that China should offer preferential market access to India for mutually beneficial and welfare-enhancing engagements for both countries. Finally, the study concludes that there exists a narrow scope for 'WTO-Plus' approach for India-China agriculture trade relations. India should assess all pros and cons as it has revenue loss and impact on economically marginalised 'Farming Community'
本文考察了印度和中国农业部门双边关税削减的影响。使用gtap模型,从福利、产出、就业和印度与中国之间的潜在贸易流量等方面对结果进行了评估。目前的研究表明,印度和中国之间农产品进口关税的部分降低可能会增加印度和中国的福利,而农产品进口关税的完全降低可能会对印度造成福利损失,尽管中国将获得实质性的福利收益。研究显示,与印度相比,中国的福利收益更大。该研究表明,在农业部门进行精心计算和战略谈判的关税削减可能为双方创造双赢局面。该研究进一步认为,中国应该向印度提供优惠的市场准入,以实现两国互利共赢和增进福利的合作。最后,该研究得出结论,印中农业贸易关系的“wto +”方式存在狭窄的范围。印度应该评估所有的利弊,因为这会造成收入损失,并对经济边缘化的“农业社区”产生影响。
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引用次数: 3
The Colour Red for Emotion in Cross-Cultural E-Commerce 跨文化电子商务中的情感红色
Pub Date : 2020-05-23 DOI: 10.17015/ejbe.2020.025.05
Peter Broeder, N. Wildeman
Web stores tend to differentiate themselves from competitors by relying on hedonic aspects, such as colour. This study focusses on web store colour and emotions in the online shopping process. Preferences of Western and Asian consumers are compared when exposed to a web store with specific colour values of red. This was done in the context of an online booking web store for hotels. An online experimental survey was conducted with two conditions, viz., dark red and light red. A total of 220 participants (130 Dutch and 90 Vietnamese) completed the questionnaire. Contrary to expectation, the results showed no direct effect of colour: the light red web store did not induce the highest booking intentions, though an indirect colour effect was found through the pleasure emotion. The light red web store induced more pleasure, which in turn induced higher booking intentions. Cultural differences (indulgent vs. restricted), influenced the relationship between colour and the arousal emotion. Participants from the more indulgent culture were more induced by the light colour web store.
网络商店往往通过依赖于享乐方面(如颜色)来使自己与竞争对手区分开来。本研究的重点是网上商店的色彩和情绪在网上购物的过程中。西方和亚洲消费者的偏好进行了比较,当接触到一个特定的红色值的网络商店。这是在酒店在线预订网络商店的背景下完成的。在深红色和浅红色两种条件下进行了在线实验调查。共有220名参与者(130名荷兰人和90名越南人)完成了问卷调查。与预期相反,结果显示颜色没有直接影响:浅红色的网店并没有引起最高的预订意愿,尽管通过愉悦情绪发现了间接的颜色影响。浅红色的网店带来了更多的愉悦感,而愉悦感又带来了更高的预订意向。文化差异(放纵与限制)影响颜色与唤醒情绪之间的关系。来自放纵文化的参与者更容易受到浅色网店的诱惑。
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引用次数: 8
Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of Returns in the Infrastructure Sector in Emerging Markets 新兴市场基础设施行业回报波动性的建模与预测
Pub Date : 2020-05-20 DOI: 10.17015/ejbe.2020.025.03
R. Magweva, M. Sibanda
Understanding the volatility behaviour of specific sectors of the economy enables investors to formulate workable investment strategies, and policy-makers to formulate policies that dampen excess volatility. This study examined the volatility features of the infrastructure sector in emerging markets. The features assessed were the GARCH effects, volatility persistence, and leverage effects. EGARCH and GJRGARCH models of order one under normal and non-normal error distributions were employed to unpack the volatility behaviour of infrastructure returns in emerging markets. The results from both models under all distributions indicated the existence of GARCH effects, volatility clustering, volatility persistence, and leverage effects in the infrastructure sector in emerging nations. This implies that past conditional variance is significant in determining current conditional variance, thereby rendering forecasting a worthwhile task. The findings also suggest that investors interested in the infrastructure sector in emerging markets should incorporate leverage effects in their estimation of value-at-risk. Furthermore, they should focus on factors other than mean-variance portfolio optimization and consider leverage effects, excess kurtosis, and skewness when making investment decisions. Finally, investors in the infrastructure sector in emerging markets are encouraged to formulate hedging strategies as they are exposed to significant risk and uncertainty.
了解特定经济部门的波动行为,使投资者能够制定可行的投资策略,使政策制定者能够制定抑制过度波动的政策。本研究考察了新兴市场基础设施行业的波动性特征。评估的特征是GARCH效应、波动性持久性和杠杆效应。采用正态和非正态误差分布下的一阶EGARCH和GJRGARCH模型来分析新兴市场基础设施收益的波动行为。两种模型在所有分布下的结果表明,新兴国家基础设施部门存在GARCH效应、波动性聚类效应、波动性持续性效应和杠杆效应。这意味着过去的条件方差在确定当前的条件方差方面是重要的,从而使预测成为一项有价值的任务。研究结果还表明,对新兴市场基础设施行业感兴趣的投资者,应在评估风险价值时考虑杠杆效应。此外,在进行投资决策时,应关注均值-方差组合优化以外的因素,考虑杠杆效应、过度峰度和偏度。最后,鼓励新兴市场基础设施领域的投资者制定对冲策略,因为他们面临着巨大的风险和不确定性。
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引用次数: 1
General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Implementation: What was the Impact on the Market Value of European Financial Institutions? 通用数据保护条例(GDPR)的实施:对欧洲金融机构市场价值的影响是什么?
Pub Date : 2020-05-14 DOI: 10.17015/ejbe.2020.025.01
M. Arcuri
Personal data protection (PDP) is a big concern for political leaders, IT managers, information security consultants, the financial services industry, and the millions of people currently online. This paper analyses the impact that the most important European data protection regulation, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), had on the market value of European financial institutions. Financial institutions collect and manage large amounts of personal data. Data protection is thus a key issue, and risks of non-compliance include financial, legal, and reputational risks. It is, therefore, interesting to find out whether stockholders recognized the real value and scope of GDPR. In order to examine the financial institution stockholder reaction to GDPR, we apply the event study methodology. We analyse a sample of 357 European listed financial companies, and we use daily market prices. In general, we find a significant positive reaction and note differences among European countries, showing that perception of GDPR impacts differed, probably because of uncertainty and worries about complying with new provisions, which required economic and organizational investment.
个人数据保护(PDP)是政治领导人、IT经理、信息安全顾问、金融服务行业以及当前数百万在线用户关注的一个大问题。本文分析了欧洲最重要的数据保护法规——通用数据保护条例(GDPR)对欧洲金融机构市场价值的影响。金融机构收集和管理大量的个人数据。因此,数据保护是一个关键问题,不合规的风险包括财务、法律和声誉风险。因此,股东是否认识到GDPR的真正价值和适用范围是一个有趣的问题。为了检验金融机构股东对GDPR的反应,我们采用事件研究方法。我们分析了357家欧洲上市金融公司的样本,并使用了每日市场价格。总的来说,我们发现欧洲国家之间有显著的积极反应,并注意到差异,表明对GDPR影响的看法不同,可能是因为不确定性和对遵守新规定的担忧,这需要经济和组织投资。
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引用次数: 3
Quality in e-Government accounting services: A model of relationships between e-service quality dimensions and behaviors 电子政务会计服务质量:电子政务服务质量维度与行为关系模型
Pub Date : 2019-05-30 DOI: 10.17015/EJBE.2019.023.04
C. Kuzey, M. S. Dinc, Ali Haydar Gungormus, Lokman Incirkuş, I. Scholar
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between perceptions held by accountants regarding the e-service quality dimensions of the e-government website in connection with their behavioral and praising intentions. Using the survey method, 203 responses were collected from accountants in Turkey. A partial least square structural equation model was constructed to test both the reliability and validity of the measurement as well as the structural model. The results showed that several e-service quality sub-dimensions such as graphical quality, emotional benefits, and ease of use and control have a positive and significant impact on behavioral intention and praising intention. The study did not find support for the possible effect of layout clarity upon behavioral intention and praising intention.
本研究的目的是检验会计师对电子政务网站的电子服务质量维度的看法与他们的行为和赞扬意图之间的关系。使用调查方法,从土耳其的会计师中收集了203份回复。建立偏最小二乘结构方程模型,对测量结果和结构模型的信度、效度进行检验。结果表明,电子服务质量的图形质量、情感效益、易用性和控制性等子维度对行为意向和称赞意向有显著的正向影响。研究没有发现布局清晰度对行为意向和表扬意向可能产生的影响。
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引用次数: 5
How have Mergers and Acquisitions Affected Financial Performance of Firms in Indian Manufacturing Sector? 并购如何影响印度制造业企业的财务绩效?
Pub Date : 2019-05-30 DOI: 10.17015/EJBE.2019.023.05
Pulak Mishra
The paper examines how mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in India after initiation of reforms in 1991 have affected firms’ financial performance. Using panel data and applying the method of difference GMM, it is found that neither market concentration nor M&As affected firms’ financial performance because of the multidirectional structure-conduct-performance relationships. Instead, interindustry differences in performance have been caused by capital intensity, efforts relating to marketing and distribution, and foreign technology. The findings suggest for a relook at the competition policies and laws, international trade, investment and technology development as they influence financial performance through market structure along with firms’ business strategies, efficiency and competitiveness.
本文考察了1991年改革启动后印度的并购(M&As)如何影响公司的财务绩效。运用面板数据和差分GMM方法发现,由于结构-行为-绩效的多向关系,市场集中度和并购对企业财务绩效都没有影响。相反,行业间业绩的差异是由资本密集度、营销和分销方面的努力以及外国技术造成的。研究结果建议重新审视竞争政策和法律、国际贸易、投资和技术发展,因为它们通过市场结构以及公司的商业战略、效率和竞争力影响财务绩效。
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引用次数: 6
Brand Selection Dimensions in Family Buying of Personal Care Products 家庭购买个人护理产品的品牌选择维度
Pub Date : 2019-05-30 DOI: 10.17015/EJBE.2019.023.03
Sakshi Sharma, M. Singh
The aim of present study endeavors to uncover the dimensions of brand selection in buying of personal care products. The results confirmed four dimensions of brand selection for each studied product i.e. shampoo (Variety and Value Seeking, Functionality-Hair Care, Brand Adherence and Habitual Selection), toilet soap (Value & Variety Seeking, Functionality, Significance of Image and Time and Friend’s Influence) and toothpaste (Functionality-Oral Care, Value Seeking, Outer Directed Brand Adherence and Parental Influence). Another important finding of this study is that dimensions of brand selections have significant gender differences. Interestingly, this study shows that males are found to be more variety, value and functionality seekers in buying of personal care products as compared to their counterparts. Females are found to be more brands adhered and influenced by friend and parents. The paper offers insights that the variety and value seeking brand selection dimensions are highly strong brand selection dimensions for all studied products. As personal care products buyers have shown great interest in variety and value seeking, the study suggests that promotional efforts like sales promotions and advertising can play a vital role in marketeering of these products for a new entrant as well as for established marketers.
本研究旨在揭示个人护理产品购买中品牌选择的维度。结果证实了每个研究产品的品牌选择的四个维度,即洗发水(多样性和价值追求,功能-护发,品牌依从性和习惯性选择),香皂(价值和多样性追求,功能,形象和时间的重要性和朋友的影响)和牙膏(功能-口腔护理,价值追求,外部导向品牌依从性和父母影响)。本研究的另一个重要发现是品牌选择的维度存在显著的性别差异。有趣的是,这项研究表明,与女性相比,男性在购买个人护理产品时更注重多样性、价值和功能。女性更容易受到朋友和父母的品牌依附和影响。研究发现,多样性和价值追求的品牌选择维度对所有研究产品都是很强的品牌选择维度。由于个人护理产品的买家对产品的多样性和价值追求表现出极大的兴趣,研究表明,促销活动和广告等促销措施对于新进入者和老牌营销人员来说,在这些产品的营销中发挥着至关重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics
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