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The Nature of Contingency最新文献

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Laws of Nature 自然法则
Pub Date : 2020-02-11 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198846215.003.0005
Alastair Wilson
One of the most attractive features of quantum modal realism is the unified and explanatory theory of laws of nature which it enables. Quantum modal realism incorporates a layered model of laws which share a common underlying structure; the model includes Fundamental laws of the multiverse, fundamental laws of Everett worlds, as well as a variety of types of non-fundamental laws of Everett worlds. This layered model of laws allows for a hitherto unexpected reconciliation of the Humean and anti-Humean conceptions of lawhood, and the model also enables powerful explanations both of why laws matter to us and of how we can come to know them. This chapter sets out the new quantum modal realist theory of laws, defends it from some objections, and draws out its most important consequences.
量子模态实在论最吸引人的特点之一是它使自然规律的统一和解释性理论成为可能。量子模态实在论结合了具有共同底层结构的定律的分层模型;该模型包括多元宇宙的基本定律,埃弗雷特世界的基本定律,以及各种类型的非埃弗雷特世界的基本定律。这种法律的分层模型使得休谟和反休谟的法律概念得到了迄今为止意想不到的调和,而且该模型还能够有力地解释为什么法律对我们很重要,以及我们如何才能认识它们。本章阐述了新的量子模态现实主义定律理论,从一些反对意见中为其辩护,并得出了其最重要的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Emergent Chance 紧急的机会
Pub Date : 2020-02-11 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198846215.003.0004
Alastair Wilson
This chapter offers a theory of objective chance in the Everettian context, often seen as the main challenge facing EQM. By supplementing diverging EQM with quantum modal realist bridge principles connecting the physics of quantum mechanics with the metaphysics of modality, we obtain a package deal: Indexicalism. Indexicalist objective chance is an essentially self-locating phenomenon: chances are chances of self-location within the multiverse. I provide three arguments for Indexicalism: it establishes the right qualitative connections between chance and possibility, it establishes the right quantitative connection between chance and prediction, and it establishes the right epistemological story about how quantum mechanics is confirmed by empirical evidence. The resulting theory of chance is naturalistic and reductive; fundamental reality is deterministic, but chance arises at the non-fundamental level of Everett-worldbound perspectives. The theory provides unique resources for motivating an Everettian version of Lewis’s Principal Principle, helping to clarify at last the persistently mysterious connection between chance and rational credence.
本章提供了Everettian背景下的客观机会理论,通常被视为EQM面临的主要挑战。通过用量子模态实在桥原理补充发散的EQM,将量子力学的物理与模态形而上学联系起来,我们得到了一个整体:指数化。索引主义的客观机会本质上是一种自我定位的现象:机会是在多元宇宙中自我定位的机会。我为指数化主义提供了三个论据:它在偶然性和可能性之间建立了正确的定性联系,它在偶然性和预测之间建立了正确的定量联系,它建立了正确的认识论故事关于量子力学是如何被经验证据证实的。由此产生的偶然性理论是自然主义的和还原的;基本现实是确定的,但机会出现在非基本层面的埃弗雷特世界视角。这一理论提供了独特的资源,推动了刘易斯基本原理的埃弗雷特版本,最终有助于澄清机会与理性信念之间始终神秘的联系。
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引用次数: 36
Analysing Modality 分析模式
Pub Date : 2020-02-11 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198846215.003.0002
Alastair Wilson
This chapter presents and defends the basic tenets of quantum modal realism. The first of these principles, Individualism, states that Everett worlds are metaphysically possible worlds. The converse of this principle, Generality, states that metaphysically possible worlds are Everett worlds. Combining Individualism and Generality yields Alignment, a conjecture about the nature of possible worlds that is closely analogous to Lewisian modal realism. Like Lewisian modal realism, Alignment entails that each possible world is a real concrete individual of the same basic kind as the actual world. These similarities render EQM suitable for grounding a novel theory of the nature of metaphysical modality with some unique properties. Also like Lewisian modal realism, quantum modal realism is a reductive theory: it accounts for modality in fundamentally non-modal terms. But quantum modal realism also has unique epistemological advantages over Lewisian modal realism and other extant realist approaches to modality.
本章提出并捍卫量子模态实在论的基本原则。第一个原则,个人主义,指出埃弗雷特世界是形而上学上可能的世界。这个原则的反面,概括性,指出形而上学上可能的世界是埃弗雷特世界。结合个人主义和普遍性产生了一致性,这是一种关于可能世界本质的猜想,与刘易斯模态现实主义非常相似。与刘易斯模态现实主义一样,一致性要求每个可能世界都是与现实世界具有相同基本类型的真实具体个体。这些相似性使得EQM适合作为一种具有独特性质的关于形而上情态本质的新理论的基础。和刘易斯模态实在论一样,量子模态实在论也是一种还原理论:它从根本上用非模态的术语来解释模态。但量子模态实在论在认识论上也比刘易斯模态实在论和其他现存的实在论方法有独特的优势。
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引用次数: 0
Conclusion 结论
Pub Date : 2020-02-11 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198846215.003.0008
Alastair Wilson
Quantum modal realism is a strange and unfamiliar doctrine. That is not by itself a reason to disbelieve it. Physical reality has continually turned out to be larger than we imagined possible; quantum modal realism expands reality one step further, beyond the actual world. In this short conclusion, I trace the history of human beliefs about the size of the cosmos, and compare the expansion of our horizons that results from quantum modal realism to previous revolutions in cosmology. I also observe that in some ways quantum modal realism is economical; while it may expand our conception of reality, it does not expand our conception of what is possible or of what is actual.
量子模态实在论是一个陌生的理论。这本身并不是不相信它的理由。物理现实不断被证明比我们想象的要大;量子模态实在论将现实进一步扩展,超越了现实世界。在这个简短的结论中,我追溯了人类关于宇宙大小的信仰的历史,并将量子模态现实主义导致的我们视野的扩展与先前宇宙学的革命进行了比较。我也注意到在某些方面量子模态实在论是经济的;虽然它可以扩展我们对现实的概念,但它并没有扩展我们对可能或现实的概念。
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引用次数: 0
Anthropic Contingency 人为应急
Pub Date : 2020-02-11 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198846215.003.0007
Alastair Wilson
Distinguish contingency in general from anthropic contingency. The former is what really could happen; the latter is what really could be observed to happen. Quantum histories which host no life cannot, as a matter of obvious necessity, be observed. This distinction generates an anthropic observation selection effect, which has been employed in response to the fine-tuning argument for the design hypothesis. This chapter argues that fine-tuning is a genuine phenomenon that cries out for explanation; that in one-world approaches to quantum theory a chancy determination of cosmological parameters would render the one universe we are in preposterously lucky; that no preposterous luck is required from the perspective of quantum modal realism; and that the correct interpretation of quantum mechanics turns out to have a significant evidential bearing on the design question.
区分一般偶然性和人为偶然性。前者才是真正可能发生的;后者才是真正可以观察到的。作为一个明显的必然问题,没有生命的量子历史是不能被观察到的。这种区别产生了一种人为观察选择效应,它被用来回应设计假设的微调论点。本章认为,微调是一种迫切需要解释的真实现象;在量子理论的单一世界方法中,宇宙参数的偶然决定会使我们所处的单一宇宙变得荒谬地幸运;从量子模态实在论的角度来看,不需要荒谬的运气;量子力学的正确解释对设计问题有着重要的证据影响。
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引用次数: 0
Indeterminacy 不确定性
Pub Date : 2020-02-11 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198846215.003.0006
Alastair Wilson
In Everettian quantum mechanics, the universal quantum state is fundamental, non-contingent, and wholly determinate. By contrast, the parallel worlds of diverging EQM, and the contingency constituted by self-location amongst those worlds, are emergent and partly indeterminate. In particular, it is indeterminate both how many worlds there are, and what microscopic qualitative features those worlds have. This chapter discusses various ways to understand indeterminacy in the Everettian multiverse, and argues that the indeterminacies of EQM present no obstacle to the analytic ambitions of quantum modal realism. Everettians can understand quantum indeterminacy using models of indeterminacy that are familiar from the philosophical literature on vagueness.
在埃弗里特量子力学中,普遍的量子态是基本的、非偶然的、完全确定的。相比之下,发散EQM的平行世界,以及由这些世界中的自我定位构成的偶然性,是涌现的,部分是不确定的。特别是,它不确定有多少个世界,以及这些世界有什么微观的定性特征。本章讨论了理解埃弗里特多元宇宙中的不确定性的各种方法,并认为EQM的不确定性对量子模态实在论的分析野心没有任何障碍。Everettians可以使用不确定性模型来理解量子不确定性,这些模型来自于关于模糊性的哲学文献。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Nature of Contingency
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