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The Role of Success Rate, Discovery, Appraisal Spending, and Transitioning Region on Exploration Drilling of Oil and Gas in Indonesia in 2004–2015 成功率、发现、评估支出和过渡区域在2004-2005年印尼油气勘探钻探中的作用
Pub Date : 2021-12-19 DOI: 10.47291/efi.v67i2.952
Harry Patria
Petroleum exploration decision remains a subject of petroleum and economic studies for decades. Most of the  studies discuss the investment decision by focusing on either a technical or economic perspective. In reality, economic, geological, and environmental factors are expected to determine the way investors make a decision. This study aims to increase the understanding of best practices in decision-making by scrutinizing integrative perspectives applying panel data of 32 basins in Indonesia in 2004–2015. This study provides several contributions to optimize decisions on wells drilled. First, this study derives an empirical model examining several plausible factors of economy, geology, and environment. Second, the findings demonstrate how to empirically examine which factors significantly determine wells drilled by companies. The last contribution is to empirically support a technical transformation from Western to Eastern exploration due to the natural depletion of oil fields.
几十年来,石油勘探决策一直是石油和经济研究的一个主题。大多数研究都是从技术或经济角度来讨论投资决策。在现实中,预计经济、地质和环境因素将决定投资者的决策方式。本研究旨在通过2004-2015年印度尼西亚32个盆地面板数据的综合视角,增加对最佳决策实践的理解。该研究为优化钻井决策提供了一些贡献。首先,本研究推导了一个实证模型,考察了经济、地质和环境等几个貌似合理的因素。其次,研究结果展示了如何通过实证检验哪些因素显著地决定了公司的钻井数量。最后的贡献是实证地支持了由于油田自然枯竭而从西向东勘探的技术转变。
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引用次数: 3
Factors Influencing Economic Empowerment in Tourism Development 影响旅游发展中经济赋权的因素
Pub Date : 2021-12-19 DOI: 10.47291/efi.v67i2.996
M. Ikhsan, S. Indrawati, Gede Sthitaprajna Virananda, Zihaul Abdi, Canyon Keanu
The output per worker of Indonesia has been on a downtrend since 2010, with total factor productivity (TFP) and capital stock largely stagnant if not declining. This paper discusses stylized facts that may explain recent trends in the productivity and growth potential of Indonesia. The decomposition of output per worker reveals the declining contribution of human capital, which is also most negative among peer countries. The growth in labor productivity has been concentrated within sectors, implying room for gains from labor reallocations. A substantial share of employment and credit in Indonesia has shifted to the relatively unproductive service sectors, particularly wholesale and retail trade. In terms of firm dynamics, the contribution of large firms in Indonesia has been lackluster compared to regional peers while the productivity of micro, small and medium enterprises remains stagnant. Considering that human capital and TFP measures of Indonesia are lagging behind middle-income peers, there is wide scope for Indonesia to catch up. However, the potential output of Indonesia also faces new risks from the COVID-19 pandemic. We expect that the short-term effect of the pandemic on capital accumulation and the long-term effect on human capital pose the highest risk while labor inputs appear to be more resilient. Meanwhile, the potential productivity gains from accelerated digital adoption and sectoral reallocations are more uncertain.
自2010年以来,印尼的人均产出一直呈下降趋势,全要素生产率(TFP)和资本存量即使没有下降,也基本停滞不前。本文讨论了程式化的事实,可以解释印度尼西亚生产力和增长潜力的最新趋势。人均产出的分解揭示了人力资本贡献的下降,这在同类国家中也是最负的。劳动生产率的增长一直集中在行业内部,这意味着劳动力再分配还有收益空间。印度尼西亚的就业和信贷的很大一部分已经转移到相对非生产性的服务部门,特别是批发和零售贸易。就企业动态而言,印度尼西亚大公司的贡献与区域同行相比乏能可展,而微型、小型和中型企业的生产率仍然停滞不前。考虑到印尼的人力资本和全要素生产率指标落后于中等收入国家,印尼还有很大的追赶空间。然而,印尼的潜在产出也面临新冠肺炎大流行带来的新风险。我们预计,大流行对资本积累的短期影响和对人力资本的长期影响构成最大风险,而劳动力投入似乎更具弹性。与此同时,加速采用数字技术和部门再分配所带来的潜在生产力收益更加不确定。
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引用次数: 0
The Environmental Kuznets Curve for Deforestation in Indonesia 印度尼西亚森林砍伐的环境库兹涅茨曲线
Pub Date : 2021-12-19 DOI: 10.47291/efi.v67i2.671
Dara Adila, N. Nuryartono, Mandar P. Oak
This study provides empirical findings on the relationship between deforestation and income in 32 provinces in Indonesia. To enrich the discussion on deforestation, this study investigates the impact of the factors of population, roundwood production, land area, and main crop production on deforestation. The selected main crops in Indonesia are oil palm, coffee, coconut, rubber, and cacao. The results confirm the existence of the EKC relationship between deforestation and income in Indonesia. The study also finds that oil palm production positively affects tree cover loss, but the production of natural rubber has the opposite impact on deforestation.
本文对印尼32个省份的森林砍伐与收入之间的关系进行了实证研究。为了丰富关于森林砍伐的讨论,本研究调查了人口、圆木产量、土地面积和主要作物生产等因素对森林砍伐的影响。印尼选定的主要作物有油棕、咖啡、椰子、橡胶和可可。研究结果证实了印尼森林砍伐与收入之间存在EKC关系。该研究还发现,油棕生产对树木覆盖损失有积极影响,但天然橡胶的生产对森林砍伐有相反的影响。
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引用次数: 4
The Impact of School Operational Assistance Program Implementation at School Level on Senior Secondary Education Enrollment by Households: Evidence from Indonesia in 2007 and 2014 学校层面实施学校运营援助计划对家庭高中教育入学率的影响:来自印度尼西亚2007年和2014年的证据
Pub Date : 2021-12-19 DOI: 10.47291/efi.v67i2.846
Fairuzah Pertiwi Kartasasmita, Eny Sulistyaningrum
Education is recognized worldwide as one of the key elements in developing the human capital of a nation for a prosperous future. Given an almost universal enrollment in primary education, many governments have shifted their focus on students’ motivation to continue to and finish their secondary education. The government of Indonesia has made extensive efforts in widening participation in education. With a growing budget for educational expenditure, various government programs have been implemented to assist students in their learning. One such program is the School Operational Assistance Program (BOS), which has been running for two decades. This paper reports on a study aimed to investigate the impact of the implementation of BOS at a school level on senior secondary school enrollment by households using data obtained from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) recorded in 2007 and 2014. By using Propensity Score Matching (PSM), it was found that students whose schools received BOS during their primary education years were more likely to continue their education to senior secondary education than those whose schools did not receive BOS. This shows that a school subsidy could encourage students to continue their education, particularly for students coming from poorer households.
教育在世界范围内被认为是发展一个国家的人力资本以实现繁荣未来的关键因素之一。由于初等教育几乎普及,许多政府已经将重点转移到学生继续完成中等教育的动机上。印尼政府为扩大教育参与作出了广泛努力。随着教育支出预算的增加,政府实施了各种帮助学生学习的计划。其中一个项目是学校运营援助项目(BOS),该项目已经运行了20年。本文报告了一项研究,旨在利用2007年和2014年印度尼西亚家庭生活调查(IFLS)记录的数据,调查学校层面实施BOS对家庭高中入学率的影响。通过倾向得分匹配(PSM),我们发现在小学阶段学校接受BOS的学生比学校没有接受BOS的学生更有可能继续接受高中教育。这表明,学校补贴可以鼓励学生继续接受教育,特别是对于来自贫困家庭的学生。
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引用次数: 3
Factors Influencing Economic Empowerment in Tourism Development 旅游发展中经济赋权的影响因素
Pub Date : 2021-12-19 DOI: 10.47291/efi.v67i2.917
E. Rachmawati, J. Fountain, M. Mackay
Tourism is believed to be able to empower people economically, both at the individual and community levels, by providing various employment and business opportunities to community members to help alleviate poverty. This study offers insights into community empowerment outcome, particularly in economic dimension, through a quantitative approach. This study aims to identify the level of community empowerment outcome perceived by the local communities in tourism development in their area and analyze the factors that influence the outcome. Employing a mixed-methods approach, this study collected data through household survey, field and participatory observation, and document analysis. The questionnaire responses were analyzed using descriptive statistical analysis (i.e., frequency distribution and cross tabulation) and chi-square analysis. The findings suggest that tourism was able to increase the income of the people working in the tourism sector. However, only several people perceived that tourism could provide benefits for them. Several factors influencing the community perception related to economic empowerment in tourism development were identified. These include involvement in the tourism industry, community culture (kinship), nature of tourism affecting the type of available job, lack of engagement, lack of capital, education, and geographical factors.
旅游业被认为能够通过向社区成员提供各种就业和商业机会来帮助减轻贫困,从而在个人和社区层面增强人们的经济能力。这项研究通过定量方法深入了解了社区赋权的结果,特别是在经济层面。本研究旨在确定当地社区在其所在地区旅游发展中感知的社区赋权结果水平,并分析影响结果的因素。本研究采用混合方法,通过家庭调查、实地和参与式观察以及文献分析收集数据。问卷调查采用描述性统计分析(即频率分布和交叉表)和卡方分析进行分析。调查结果表明,旅游业能够增加旅游业从业人员的收入。然而,只有几个人认为旅游业可以为他们带来好处。确定了影响社区对旅游业发展中经济赋权看法的几个因素。其中包括参与旅游业、社区文化(亲属关系)、影响可用工作类型的旅游业性质、缺乏参与、缺乏资本、教育和地理因素。
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引用次数: 1
Effects of Financial Inclusion and Openness on Banking Stability: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries 金融包容性和开放性对银行业稳定的影响——来自发展中国家和发达国家的证据
Pub Date : 2021-12-19 DOI: 10.47291/efi.v67i2.967
M. A. Shalihin, Sugiharso Safuan
This study seeks to contribute to the emerging debate regarding the effects of financial inclusion and openness on banking stability. Panel data from 217 developing and developed countries from 2004 to 2017 showed that financial inclusion did not affect banking stability. However, financial openness significantly affected banking stability in all countries worldwide. Furthermore, the interaction of financial inclusion and openness had a significant positive effect on banking stability in developing and all countries worldwide. This finding indicates that the more funds obtained by banks from the implementation of financial inclusion policy and financial openness policy, the greater the potential for banks to maintain their stability. Therefore, to maintain bank stability, each country needs to synchronize its policies on financial inclusion and financial openness. This finding also contributes to the literature on understanding the essential financial inclusion policies and financial openness to improve bank stability.
这项研究试图为关于金融包容性和开放性对银行业稳定的影响的新辩论做出贡献。2004年至2017年,217个发展中国家和发达国家的面板数据显示,金融包容性不会影响银行业的稳定。然而,金融开放严重影响了世界各国的银行业稳定。此外,金融包容性和开放性的互动对发展中国家和世界各国的银行业稳定产生了重大的积极影响。这一发现表明,银行从实施金融普惠政策和金融开放政策中获得的资金越多,银行保持稳定的潜力就越大。因此,为了维护银行的稳定,每个国家都需要同步其金融包容性和金融开放政策。这一发现也有助于理解提高银行稳定性的基本金融包容性政策和金融开放。
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引用次数: 2
Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia with Asymmetry 不对称条件下印尼的财政可持续性
Pub Date : 2021-05-06 DOI: 10.47291/EFI.V67I1.731
M. Ikhsan, I. G. S. Virananda
The management of fiscal balance determines public debt sustainability, where a positive response of primary balance towards the debt ratio indicates a sustainable path. However, there might be asymmetry in the government’s fiscal management between different phases of the debt trajectory and business cycle. This study examines the sustainability of fiscal imbalance and public debt in Indonesia using the fiscal reaction function with annual fiscal data from 1976 to 2019. We incorporate asymmetry by decomposing the lagged debt ratio and cyclical output variables into their positive and negative partial sums. We find that Indonesia’s fiscal imbalance is on a path of weak sustainability as revenue grows more slowly than expenditure in the long run, with the bi-directional Granger causality between the two indicating fiscal synchronization. Long-run public debt sustainability is on a more sustainable path as primary surplus responds positively to the debt ratio. However, our asymmetric analysis suggests that this might be a false impression as primary balance decreases only in response to debt ratio decrease but increases less or fails to increase when the debt ratio rises, which is potentially dangerous.
财政平衡的管理决定了公共债务的可持续性,其中基本平衡对债务比率的积极反应表明了可持续的道路。然而,政府财政管理在债务轨迹和经济周期的不同阶段之间可能存在不对称性。本研究使用1976 - 2019年年度财政数据的财政反应函数,考察了印度尼西亚财政失衡和公共债务的可持续性。我们通过将滞后负债率和周期性产出变量分解为正负部分和来纳入不对称性。研究发现,长期来看,印尼财政失衡的可持续性较弱,收入增长慢于支出增长,两者之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系,表明财政同步。长期公共债务的可持续性正走在一条更可持续的道路上,因为基本盈余与债务比率呈正相关。然而,我们的非对称分析表明,这可能是一种错误的印象,因为主要余额仅在债务比率下降时减少,而在债务比率上升时增加较少或不增加,这是潜在的危险。
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引用次数: 3
Credit Limit of Unsecured Consumer Lending: Evidence from Micro Data 无担保消费贷款的信用额度:来自微观数据的证据
Pub Date : 2021-04-29 DOI: 10.47291/efi.v67i1.697
Suwinto Johan, Calista Endrina Dewi
As credit card debts have increased in Indonesia over the past ten years, concerns over the impulsive buying behavior of Indonesian credit card holders have emerged. Therefore, more attention must be paid to credit risk management of banks as it plays an important role in analyzing the possibility of losses due to the inability of prospective borrowers to repay debts. This study provides empirical evidence about the prudence of commercial banks in Greater Jakarta in offering credit card limits. Using primary micro-data collected from credit card applications submitted to the largest foreign private bank providing retail credit in the Greater Jakarta area in 2019, this study employed multiple regression model to analyze the determinants of credit card limits in the Greater Jakarta. Our empirical findings suggest that age, home location, income, type of industry, and office location of prospective borrowers significantly influence credit card limits. Commercial banks in the Greater Jakarta, thus, have been prudent in offering credit card limits.
过去十年来,随着印尼信用卡债务的增加,人们开始担心印尼信用卡持有者的冲动购买行为。因此,必须更加重视银行的信贷风险管理,因为它在分析潜在借款人无力偿还债务造成损失的可能性方面发挥着重要作用。这项研究为大雅加达商业银行在提供信用卡限额时的谨慎性提供了实证证据。本研究利用从2019年提交给大雅加达地区提供零售信贷的最大外国私人银行的信用卡申请中收集的主要微观数据,采用多元回归模型分析了大雅加达地区信用卡限额的决定因素。我们的实证结果表明,潜在借款人的年龄、家庭所在地、收入、行业类型和办公地点对信用卡限额有显著影响。因此,大雅加达的商业银行在提供信用卡限额方面一直很谨慎。
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引用次数: 2
Factors to Improve Fishery Household Welfare: Empirical Analysis of Indonesia 提高渔业家庭福利的因素:印度尼西亚的实证分析
Pub Date : 2021-04-29 DOI: 10.47291/efi.v67i1.874
B. Wicaksono, M. Fahmi
This study attempts to verify the linkage between the characteristics of fishers and the welfare of fishery  household in Indonesia, which is explained by the surplus obtained by fishers. Based on the empirical results using multiple linear regression analysis, variables with significant impacts on improving the welfare of fishery household in Indonesia in both marine and inland open water fisheries are fishing gear, number of fishers, number of crew, salary, province, age, gender, education level, processed storage, transportation, and market target. Furthermore, the characteristics of fishers are divided into similarities and differences. Observed from the similarities, the main fishers play a prominent role to fulfill the daily needs of their families. Observed from the differences, fishers in marine fisheries prefer to use a boat with an inboard motor, prepare more funds, and require more crew members because they usually catch fish on long trips. On the other hand, fishers in inland open water fisheries prefer to use a boat without an inboard motor, prepare less funds, and require less crew members because they usually catch fish on short trips. The government needs to formulate effective, efficient, and targeted policies for the welfare of fishers. The findings suggest several policy recommendations related to the improvement of fishery household welfare in Indonesia, such as soft loan in the form of People’s Business Credit (KUR), storage facilities for a better supply chain, and revitalization of fish auction sites.
本研究试图验证印度尼西亚渔民的特征与渔业家庭福利之间的联系,这可以用渔民获得的盈余来解释。基于多元线性回归分析的实证结果,在海洋和内陆开放水域渔业中,对改善印度尼西亚渔业家庭福利有显著影响的变量是渔具、渔民数量、船员数量、工资、省份、年龄、性别、教育水平、加工储存、运输和市场目标。此外,渔民的特征分为相似性和差异性。从相似性来看,主要渔民在满足家庭日常需求方面发挥着突出作用。从差异中观察到,海洋渔业的渔民更喜欢使用带船内马达的船,准备更多的资金,并需要更多的船员,因为他们通常在长途旅行中捕鱼。另一方面,内陆开放水域渔业的渔民更喜欢使用没有船内马达的船,准备的资金更少,需要的船员更少,因为他们通常在短途旅行中捕鱼。政府需要为渔民的福利制定有效、高效和有针对性的政策。研究结果提出了一些与改善印度尼西亚渔业家庭福利有关的政策建议,如以人民商业信贷(KUR)形式提供的软贷款、改善供应链的储存设施以及振兴鱼类拍卖场。
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引用次数: 0
Mobility Pattern Changes in Indonesia in Response to COVID-19 应对2019冠状病毒病印度尼西亚人口流动模式的变化
Pub Date : 2021-04-29 DOI: 10.47291/efi.v67i1.924
S. Pramana, Y. Yuniarti, Dede Yoga Paramartha, Satria Bagus Panuntun
All countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have established several policies to control the spread of the disease. The government of Indonesia has enforced a work-from-home policy and large-scale social restrictions in most regions that result in the changes in community mobility in various categories of places. This study aims to (1) investigate the impact of large-scale restrictions on provincial-level mobility in Indonesia, (2) categorize provinces based on mobility patterns, and (3) investigate regional socio-economic characteristics that may lead to different mobility patterns. This study utilized Provincial-level Google Mobility Index, Flight data scraped from daily web, and regional characteristics (e.g., poverty rate, percentages of informal workers). A Dynamic Time Warping method was employed to investigate the clusters of mobility. The study shows an intense trade-off of mobility pattern between residential areas and  public areas. In general, during the first 2.5 months of the pandemic, people had reduced their activities in public areas and preferred to stay at home. Meanwhile, provinces have different mobility patterns from each other during the period of the large-scale restrictions. The differences in mobility are mainly led by the percentage of formal workers in each region.
受新冠肺炎疫情影响的所有国家都制定了几项政策来控制疾病的传播。印度尼西亚政府在大多数地区实施了在家工作政策和大规模的社会限制,导致各类地方的社区流动性发生了变化。本研究旨在(1)调查大规模限制对印度尼西亚省级流动的影响,(2)根据流动模式对省份进行分类,(3)调查可能导致不同流动模式的区域社会经济特征。这项研究利用了省级谷歌流动性指数、从日常网络中收集的航班数据和地区特征(如贫困率、非正规工人百分比)。采用动态时间Warping方法对迁移率集群进行了研究。该研究表明,住宅区和公共区域之间的流动模式存在激烈的权衡。总的来说,在疫情的前2.5个月,人们减少了在公共场所的活动,更喜欢呆在家里。同时,在大规模限制期间,各省的流动模式各不相同。流动性的差异主要是由每个地区正式工人的百分比造成的。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Economics and Finance in Indonesia
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