The main objective of this study is to empirically assess the volatilities of the monetary policy instruments and their effects on the Indonesian Islamic and conventional stock market. The changes in exchange rate, interest rates, and money supply and their effects on the stock markets are investigated using the using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity frameworks. As a big-open economy, the capital market of Indonesia is vulnerable to the global monetary shocks changes, thus the US federal funds rate is also incorporated into the GARCH model. The study documented that, with the exception of the US interest rate, the volatilities of all monetary policy variables of interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply were documented affecting the volatilities of both Islamic and conventional stock markets. These findings imply that the volatilities of Islamic and conventional stock markets have similar determinants, thus to stabilize the markets, the investigated monetary policy variables should be controlled for by the policy-makers. Any monetary policy design imposed by the policy-makers would have a similar effect on both conventional and Islamic stocks in Indonesia. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7352
{"title":"Assessing Volatilities of Monetary Policy and their Effects on the Islamic and Conventional Stock Markets in Indonesia","authors":"M. Majid","doi":"10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7352","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7352","url":null,"abstract":"The main objective of this study is to empirically assess the volatilities of the monetary policy instruments and their effects on the Indonesian Islamic and conventional stock market. The changes in exchange rate, interest rates, and money supply and their effects on the stock markets are investigated using the using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity frameworks. As a big-open economy, the capital market of Indonesia is vulnerable to the global monetary shocks changes, thus the US federal funds rate is also incorporated into the GARCH model. The study documented that, with the exception of the US interest rate, the volatilities of all monetary policy variables of interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply were documented affecting the volatilities of both Islamic and conventional stock markets. These findings imply that the volatilities of Islamic and conventional stock markets have similar determinants, thus to stabilize the markets, the investigated monetary policy variables should be controlled for by the policy-makers. Any monetary policy design imposed by the policy-makers would have a similar effect on both conventional and Islamic stocks in Indonesia. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7352","PeriodicalId":31086,"journal":{"name":"Signifikan","volume":"7 1","pages":"161-172"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41619904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Imran Umer Chhapra, Muhammad Ali, Syeda Fizza Zehra, F. Naz
Monetary transmission mechanism assumed to be significantly influenced by the effect of policy decisions on financial markets. However, various previous studies have come up with different outcomes. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of monetary policy on different asset classes (shares and bonds) in Pakistan. This study using stock price and bond yield as dependent variable and discount rate, money supply, inflation, and exchange rate are independent variables. Data of all variables have collected from 2010 to 2016, and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) technique has applied. The empirical results indicate that there is an impact of monetary policy components on both stock and bond market as an increase in policy rate causes decline in stocks prices and bonds yields. The findings of this study will help the potential investors in making long-term (in general) and short-term (in particular) investment strategies concerning monetary policy.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7099
{"title":"Monetary Policy and Financial Asset Prices: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan","authors":"Imran Umer Chhapra, Muhammad Ali, Syeda Fizza Zehra, F. Naz","doi":"10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7099","url":null,"abstract":"Monetary transmission mechanism assumed to be significantly influenced by the effect of policy decisions on financial markets. However, various previous studies have come up with different outcomes. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of monetary policy on different asset classes (shares and bonds) in Pakistan. This study using stock price and bond yield as dependent variable and discount rate, money supply, inflation, and exchange rate are independent variables. Data of all variables have collected from 2010 to 2016, and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) technique has applied. The empirical results indicate that there is an impact of monetary policy components on both stock and bond market as an increase in policy rate causes decline in stocks prices and bonds yields. The findings of this study will help the potential investors in making long-term (in general) and short-term (in particular) investment strategies concerning monetary policy.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7099","PeriodicalId":31086,"journal":{"name":"Signifikan","volume":"7 1","pages":"149-160"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45064936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Financial inclusion is designed to increase the opportunities and society participation in the formal financial institution, especially for unbanked people. Moreover, financial inclusion is one of strategy inclusive economic growth. However, financial inclusion may lead an ineffectiveness of monetary policy. It is because financial inclusion can affect the sensitivity of interest rate, and it could cause instability demand for money. Therefore, the research aims to analyze the impact of financial inclusion on demand for money, reserve money (M0), in 36 countries for the period 2004 to 2014. The method that used is Dynamic Panel Approach. The result shows that financial inclusion stimulates the increase of demand for reserve money (M0) in developed countries. In the other hand, the increasing of financial inclusion could decrease the demand for reserve money (M0) in developing countries. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.6838
{"title":"Financial Inclusion and Demand for Money: a Dynamic Panel Data Approach","authors":"Zelin Nurfadia Sidik, N. Achsani, S. Pasaribu","doi":"10.15408/sjie.v7i2.6838","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v7i2.6838","url":null,"abstract":"Financial inclusion is designed to increase the opportunities and society participation in the formal financial institution, especially for unbanked people. Moreover, financial inclusion is one of strategy inclusive economic growth. However, financial inclusion may lead an ineffectiveness of monetary policy. It is because financial inclusion can affect the sensitivity of interest rate, and it could cause instability demand for money. Therefore, the research aims to analyze the impact of financial inclusion on demand for money, reserve money (M0), in 36 countries for the period 2004 to 2014. The method that used is Dynamic Panel Approach. The result shows that financial inclusion stimulates the increase of demand for reserve money (M0) in developed countries. In the other hand, the increasing of financial inclusion could decrease the demand for reserve money (M0) in developing countries. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.6838","PeriodicalId":31086,"journal":{"name":"Signifikan","volume":"7 1","pages":"137-148"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43811957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tax revenue is frequently considered as an alternative form of sustainable financing within a stable and predictable fiscal environment to promote growth and enable governments to finance their social and infrastructural needs. The objective of the study is to examine the effect of tax revenue on economic growth of Nigeria and Ghana. The study used multiple regressions as tools of analysis. The study finds a positive impact of tax revenue on the gross domestic product of Nigeria and Ghana confirming prior studies. The study recommended among others that adequate measure to ensure that revenue generated from the tax is effectively utilized to develop and grow the economy. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7341
{"title":"Tax Revenue and Economic Growth: A Study of Nigeria and Ghana","authors":"F. Egbunike, O. Emudainohwo, A. Gunardi","doi":"10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7341","url":null,"abstract":"Tax revenue is frequently considered as an alternative form of sustainable financing within a stable and predictable fiscal environment to promote growth and enable governments to finance their social and infrastructural needs. The objective of the study is to examine the effect of tax revenue on economic growth of Nigeria and Ghana. The study used multiple regressions as tools of analysis. The study finds a positive impact of tax revenue on the gross domestic product of Nigeria and Ghana confirming prior studies. The study recommended among others that adequate measure to ensure that revenue generated from the tax is effectively utilized to develop and grow the economy. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7341","PeriodicalId":31086,"journal":{"name":"Signifikan","volume":"7 1","pages":"213-220"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44980681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Human development index is one indicator of development progress on aspects of human quality in a country. This study aims to determine the factors that affect the human development index in nations in ASEAN member countries. The analysis technique used is regression by using panel data regression with fixed effect model. The results of processing with fixed effect model show that population and per capita income growth rate affects the human development index in ASEAN member countries, while the variable rate of inflation and unemployment rate does not have an impact on the human development index. This study implies the importance of government to control the population and acceleration of economic growth. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6756
{"title":"Determinant of Human Development Index in ASEAN Countries","authors":"A. Arisman","doi":"10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6756","url":null,"abstract":"Human development index is one indicator of development progress on aspects of human quality in a country. This study aims to determine the factors that affect the human development index in nations in ASEAN member countries. The analysis technique used is regression by using panel data regression with fixed effect model. The results of processing with fixed effect model show that population and per capita income growth rate affects the human development index in ASEAN member countries, while the variable rate of inflation and unemployment rate does not have an impact on the human development index. This study implies the importance of government to control the population and acceleration of economic growth. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6756","PeriodicalId":31086,"journal":{"name":"Signifikan","volume":"7 1","pages":"113-122"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43683812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The economic development in ASEAN still declines environmental quality, whereas the worst environmental quality became negative externality reduce output in many sectors of ASEAN’s economy. This paper aimed to analyze the two-way relationship among economic development and environmental degradation in ASEAN with the factors which influenced it. This article used a panel data from eight ASEAN countries with the period of 2004 – 2013. The analysis method used simultaneous equation model. The results showed the two-way relationship between economic development and environmental degradation in ASEAN existed. Moreover, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and energy consumption had a positive impact on environmental degradation. Meanwhile, carbon dioxide emission per capita and trade openness had a positive effect on economic development. Therefore, the economic development strategy for ASEAN countries should be directed to increase GDP per capita and reduce the energy consumption. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6024
{"title":"Economic Development and Environmental Degradation in ASEAN","authors":"M. Ilham","doi":"10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6024","url":null,"abstract":"The economic development in ASEAN still declines environmental quality, whereas the worst environmental quality became negative externality reduce output in many sectors of ASEAN’s economy. This paper aimed to analyze the two-way relationship among economic development and environmental degradation in ASEAN with the factors which influenced it. This article used a panel data from eight ASEAN countries with the period of 2004 – 2013. The analysis method used simultaneous equation model. The results showed the two-way relationship between economic development and environmental degradation in ASEAN existed. Moreover, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and energy consumption had a positive impact on environmental degradation. Meanwhile, carbon dioxide emission per capita and trade openness had a positive effect on economic development. Therefore, the economic development strategy for ASEAN countries should be directed to increase GDP per capita and reduce the energy consumption. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6024","PeriodicalId":31086,"journal":{"name":"Signifikan","volume":"7 1","pages":"103-112"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43018999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rising population is an asset, provided, the skills of the workforce are used to the maximum extent. If not appropriately channelized, it can be a liability for a nation. A skilled and hardworking population can emerge as a foundation for a country’s development. This study examines the validity of Malthusian Theory in Nigeria using time series data from 1960 to 2016, employs the ARDL bound test techniques. The result shows that in the long-run, population growth and food production move proportionately, while population growth poses a depleting effect on food production in the short-run, thus validating the incidence of Malthusian impact in Nigerian economy in the short-run. The researcher recommended the government should strategize plans, which will further intensify family planning and birth control measure, compulsory western education and revitalization of the agricultural sector. DOI: 10.150408/sjie.v7i1.6461
{"title":"An Econometric Validation of Malthusian Theory: Evidence in Nigeria","authors":"M. Sakanko, J. David","doi":"10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6461","url":null,"abstract":"Rising population is an asset, provided, the skills of the workforce are used to the maximum extent. If not appropriately channelized, it can be a liability for a nation. A skilled and hardworking population can emerge as a foundation for a country’s development. This study examines the validity of Malthusian Theory in Nigeria using time series data from 1960 to 2016, employs the ARDL bound test techniques. The result shows that in the long-run, population growth and food production move proportionately, while population growth poses a depleting effect on food production in the short-run, thus validating the incidence of Malthusian impact in Nigerian economy in the short-run. The researcher recommended the government should strategize plans, which will further intensify family planning and birth control measure, compulsory western education and revitalization of the agricultural sector. DOI: 10.150408/sjie.v7i1.6461","PeriodicalId":31086,"journal":{"name":"Signifikan","volume":"7 1","pages":"77-90"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45024700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Micro-loans intended to improve household economies are a fascinating subject for research because a comparative analysis of before and after taking micro-loans would result in a bias selection. Households have different prior conditions from one another, so the difference found during the study is not entirely due to receiving micro-loans. There is a risk of moral hazard risk due to asymmetric information. This research adopts the double difference (DD) fixed effects method to estimate the extent of micro-loans’ impact. Results indicate that micro-loans are significantly influencing the household economies. The impact size was relatively small that it was not apparent during regression. As an implication, micro-loans intended for productive purposes can help improve household economic conditions. Effective and sustainable monitoring and counsel can minimize the risk of moral hazard. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i1.5954
{"title":"Micro-Loans and Household Economies: Evidence in Indonesia","authors":"S. Suratini","doi":"10.15408/sjie.v7i1.5954","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v7i1.5954","url":null,"abstract":"Micro-loans intended to improve household economies are a fascinating subject for research because a comparative analysis of before and after taking micro-loans would result in a bias selection. Households have different prior conditions from one another, so the difference found during the study is not entirely due to receiving micro-loans. There is a risk of moral hazard risk due to asymmetric information. This research adopts the double difference (DD) fixed effects method to estimate the extent of micro-loans’ impact. Results indicate that micro-loans are significantly influencing the household economies. The impact size was relatively small that it was not apparent during regression. As an implication, micro-loans intended for productive purposes can help improve household economic conditions. Effective and sustainable monitoring and counsel can minimize the risk of moral hazard. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i1.5954","PeriodicalId":31086,"journal":{"name":"Signifikan","volume":"7 1","pages":"91-102"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49280289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study aims to examine the importance of air transportation on regional development in Indonesia as an archipelago and developing country. Using cross-section dataset in regencies level and multiple regression analysis, we found that the number of flight, air passenger, and air cargo give positive and significant impact on regional per capita income. The effect of air cargo is the strongest, which imply that airport will provide the more substantial impact on regional economic growth if the airport is intended to use for trade and business activities. The motivations of regency to have an airport are if Regency is an independent island, manufacturing industry with its high-skilled and mid-skilled workers, and tourism sector. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6178
{"title":"The Effect of Air Transportation on Regional Economic Development: Evidence from Indonesian Regencies","authors":"A. Aunurrofik","doi":"10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6178","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to examine the importance of air transportation on regional development in Indonesia as an archipelago and developing country. Using cross-section dataset in regencies level and multiple regression analysis, we found that the number of flight, air passenger, and air cargo give positive and significant impact on regional per capita income. The effect of air cargo is the strongest, which imply that airport will provide the more substantial impact on regional economic growth if the airport is intended to use for trade and business activities. The motivations of regency to have an airport are if Regency is an independent island, manufacturing industry with its high-skilled and mid-skilled workers, and tourism sector. DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6178","PeriodicalId":31086,"journal":{"name":"Signifikan","volume":"7 1","pages":"45-58"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67141991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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