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Monetary Policy and Nigeria's Trade Balance, 1980-2018 货币政策与尼日利亚贸易平衡,1980-2018
Pub Date : 2021-03-14 DOI: 10.15408/SJIE.V10I1.18132
M. Sakanko, K. Akims
Accepted: 30 December 2020 Abstract Several countries have integrated monetary easement into their foreign policy to faucet the gains from trade thereby, assuring that market forces determine monetary policy instruments such as interest rate and exchange rate. It is on this note and this paper empirically evaluate the effect of monetary policy on Nigeria’s trade balance using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model on the time series data spanning from 1980 to 2018. The findings reveal that monetary policy tools of real interest and effective exchange rate have a longrun co-integration relationship and significant adverse effects on Nigeria’s trade balance both in the short-run and long-run. Thus, the paper concludes that monetary policy is a veritable tool through which Nigeria can maintain a favorable trade balance. Therefore, policymakers should step on measures that will maintain low-interest rates to sustain a flexible exchange rate and remove all rigidities associated with the international payment system.
摘要一些国家已将货币宽松纳入其外交政策,以获取贸易收益,从而确保市场力量决定利率和汇率等货币政策工具。正是在这一点上,本文使用自回归分布滞后模型对1980年至2018年的时间序列数据进行了实证评估,评估了货币政策对尼日利亚贸易平衡的影响。研究结果表明,实际利率与有效汇率的货币政策工具存在长期协整关系,对尼日利亚的短期和长期贸易平衡都有显著的不利影响。因此,本文的结论是,货币政策是一个名副其实的工具,通过尼日利亚可以保持良好的贸易平衡。因此,政策制定者应采取措施,维持低利率,以维持灵活的汇率,并消除与国际支付体系相关的所有僵化。
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引用次数: 1
Could Palm Oil Plantation Increase Individual Expenditure? The Dutch Disease Implication in Indonesia 棕榈油种植会增加个人支出吗?荷兰病对印度尼西亚的影响
Pub Date : 2021-03-14 DOI: 10.15408/SJIE.V10I1.15831
Cavin Dennis, Tito Siregar, Estro Dariatno Sihaloho
Accepted: 15 August 2020 Abstract Indonesia is the largest palm-oil producing country, covering almost 80 percent of global production. With the extensive production capacity, this research seeks to analyze the linkages between palm oil production and its impact on the economy by the individual monthly expenditure. To reveal the connections, this research analyzes the Dutch Disease phenomenon in Indonesia, which explains how the non-tradable sector, palm-oil industry, affects the tradable sector like the manufacturing industry. The panel data variables are selected from 2011 to 2015 within 22 provinces to see the Dutch Disease’s implications. As the model is suffered from the endogeneity, the correlation of explanatory variables with the error term, the research uses the InstrumentalVariable Regression method. The analysis indicates that Indonesia was not suffered from Dutch Disease. Therefore, palm oil production could increase individual expenditure. Finally, the extension of palm oil plantations could benefit Indonesia’s economy without affecting other sectors.
接受时间:2020年8月15日摘要印度尼西亚是最大的棕榈油生产国,几乎占全球产量的80%。凭借广泛的生产能力,本研究试图通过个人每月支出来分析棕榈油生产及其对经济影响之间的联系。为了揭示两者之间的联系,本研究分析了印度尼西亚的荷兰病现象,解释了非贸易部门棕榈油行业如何影响制造业等贸易部门。面板数据变量是从2011年至2015年在22个省份内选择的,以了解荷兰疾病的影响。由于模型存在内生性、解释变量与误差项的相关性,本研究采用了工具变量回归方法。分析表明,印度尼西亚没有患上荷兰病。因此,棕榈油生产可能会增加个人支出。最后,棕榈油种植园的扩建可以在不影响其他部门的情况下造福印尼经济。
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引用次数: 1
Can Revenue and Human Development Promote Happiness: Study on Provinces in Indonesia 收入和人类发展能促进幸福吗——对印度尼西亚各省的研究
Pub Date : 2021-03-14 DOI: 10.15408/SJIE.V10I1.17600
Sofyan Rizal, Arief Fitrijanto
This study seeks to see the relationship between the human development index (HDI) and gross regional domestic product (GRDP) variables on the happiness of economic growth data for provinces in Indonesia. The method used in this research is regression and path analysis.  This study proves that happiness is not caused by the income (GRDP) of a region but rather significantly by one of the dimensions of HDI, namely the education dimension. The relationship through the variable between using path analysis through the indirect effect of the GRDP intermediary also significantly affects the education dimension. About 60% of the variable quality of education plays a role in happiness. If the effect is through an intermediary variable, the real influence of the variable quality of education on happiness is 65%. Other variables such as health and economy, directly or indirectly, do not significantly affect the level of happiness. JEL Classification: I3, E5, R10 How to Cite: Rizal, S., & Fitrianto, A. (2021). Can Revenue and Human Development Promote Happiness: Study on Provinces in Indonesia. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi , 10 (1), 113-128. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.17600.
本研究旨在了解人类发展指数(HDI)和区域生产总值(GRDP)变量对印度尼西亚各省经济增长数据幸福感的关系。本研究采用回归与通径分析相结合的方法。本研究证明,幸福感不是由一个地区的收入(GRDP)决定的,而是由HDI的一个维度,即教育维度决定的。通过变量间的关系利用通径分析通过GRDP中介的间接效应也显著影响教育维度。大约60%的可变教育质量对幸福感起作用。如果这种影响是通过一个中介变量产生的,那么可变的教育质量对幸福感的实际影响是65%。其他变量,如健康和经济,直接或间接地不会显著影响幸福水平。JEL分类:I3, E5, R10如何引用:Rizal, S., & Fitrianto, A.(2021)。收入和人类发展能促进幸福吗:印尼各省的研究[j] .经济研究,2010(1),113-128。https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.17600。
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引用次数: 2
E-money and Stock: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia and Thailand 电子货币与股票:来自印度尼西亚和泰国的经验证据
Pub Date : 2021-03-14 DOI: 10.15408/SJIE.V10I1.15380
H. Aimon, S. Sentosa, M. Mahatir
E-money is a type of electronic or digital payment that replaces cash payments. These technological developments will have an impact on reducing the use of cash. The use of e-money possibly affects stock, which is a form of securities. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to assess the relationship between e-money and stock. The study uses the two-stage least squares model to analyze quarterly data for 2011Q1-2019Q4. The study found no relationship between stock and e-money in Indonesia, whereas, in Thailand, there was a relationship between stock and e-money. There is no relationship between e-money and stock in Indonesia and Thailand. The study recommends the Indonesian government or central bank adopt the policies that Thailand has implemented in stock that affects e-money. Stocks can affect the use of e-money due to the profits or losses of the stock that will impact the use of e-money. JEL Classification: D53, E40 How to Cite: Aimon, H., Sentosa, S. U., & Mahatir, M. R. (2021). E-money and Stock: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia and Thailand. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi , 10 (1), 139-148. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.15380.
电子货币是一种取代现金支付的电子或数字支付方式。这些技术发展将对减少现金使用产生影响。电子货币的使用可能会影响股票,股票是一种证券形式。因此,本研究的目的是评估电子货币与股票之间的关系。该研究使用两阶段最小二乘模型分析2011年第一季度至2019年第四季度的季度数据。该研究发现,在印度尼西亚,股票和电子货币之间没有关系,而在泰国,股票与电子货币之间存在关系。在印度尼西亚和泰国,电子货币和股票之间没有关系。该研究建议印尼政府或央行采取泰国在股票方面实施的影响电子货币的政策。股票可能会影响电子货币的使用,因为股票的损益会影响电子资金的使用。JEL分类:D53,E40如何引用:Aimon,H.,美国圣淘沙和Mahatir,M.R.(2021)。电子货币与股票:来自印度尼西亚和泰国的经验证据。签名:Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi,10(1),139-148。https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.15380.
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引用次数: 2
Indonesia Local Industry Structure and Firms Productivity in Industrial Area 印尼地方产业结构与工业区企业生产率
Pub Date : 2021-03-14 DOI: 10.15408/SJIE.V10I1.17197
Rinayanti Rinayanti, R. Qibthiyyah
Using three industry structure indices: specialization, diversification, and competition, we explore how local industry structure may affect firm productivity in the industrial estates. Based on unbalanced panel data of large and medium-sized industrial firms in Indonesia during 2010-2015, our study found that local industry structure influences firm productivity, measured as total factor productivity (TFP). The effect differs between firms outside the industrial estate and firms in the industrial estate. Specialization decreases the productivity of both firms in the industrial estate and outside. Diversification has a positive effect on increasing firm productivity in the industrial estate. As for firms outside the industrial estate, diversification has a negative effect, but the effect is less significant. Meanwhile, local industry competition has a positive and significant effect on firm productivity outside the industrial estate, but the effect is not significant for firms within the industrial estate. Empirically, firms in industrial estates may only benefit from a diversified local industry structure. JEL Classification: D24, L52, R10 How to Cite: Rinayanti., & Qibthiyyah, R. M. (2021). Indonesia Local Industry Structure and Firms Productivity in Industrial Area. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi , 10 (1), 93-112. doi: http://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.17197.
利用三个产业结构指标:专业化、多样化和竞争,我们探讨了地方产业结构如何影响工业区的企业生产率。基于2010-2015年印尼大中型工业企业的不平衡面板数据,我们的研究发现,当地产业结构影响企业生产率,以全要素生产率(TFP)衡量。工业区外的企业和工业区内的企业的影响不同。专业化降低了工业区内外企业的生产力。多元化对提高工业区企业生产率有积极影响。对于工业区以外的公司来说,多元化有负面影响,但影响不那么显著。同时,地方产业竞争对产业区外企业生产率有正向显著影响,但对产业区内企业影响不显著。从经验上讲,工业区的企业可能只会从多样化的当地产业结构中受益。JEL分类:D24,L52,R10如何引用:Rinayanti.,&Qibthiyyah,R.M.(2021)。印尼地方产业结构与工业区企业生产力。签名:Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi,10(1),93-112。doi:http://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.17197.
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引用次数: 0
Harnessing The Potentials of Non-Oil Sectors of The Nigerian Economy to Enhance Sustainable Growth 利用尼日利亚经济非石油部门的潜力,促进可持续增长
Pub Date : 2021-03-14 DOI: 10.15408/SJIE.V10I1.18493
E. I. Ajudua, E. Majebi, Vivian A Odishika
Accepted: 26 January 2021 Abstract In the face of global oil price instability, which seems to negatively impact the Nigerian economy, this study examined how the Nigerian government and its stakeholders have explored other sectors of her economy, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism, enhancing sustainable growth. In achieving this, the study employed a time series data covering 24 years (1995-2018). The variables used in the study were real gross domestic product (RGDP), tourism share of GDP, agriculture share of GDP, and manufacturing share of GDP. The unit root test using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was conducted to test for stationarity among variables employed. The Autoregressive Distributive Lag Bound Test for Co-integration was also employed, while the ECM was also conducted to check for the speed of adjustment. The study findings revealed that, while the Nigerian government and industry stakeholders have made significant investments in the agriculture sector through the development of improved seedlings and farm infrastructure, there is a need for more investment in the manufacturing and tourism sectors of the nation’s economy to boost her gross domestic product.
面对全球油价不稳定,这似乎对尼日利亚经济产生了负面影响,本研究考察了尼日利亚政府及其利益相关者如何探索其经济的其他部门,如农业,制造业和旅游业,以促进可持续增长。为了实现这一目标,该研究使用了24年(1995-2018)的时间序列数据。研究中使用的变量是实际国内生产总值(RGDP)、旅游业占GDP的份额、农业占GDP的份额和制造业占GDP的份额。单位根检验采用增广Dickey-Fuller检验,以检验变量间的平稳性。协整的自回归分布滞后约束检验也被采用,而ECM也被用来检查调整的速度。研究结果显示,虽然尼日利亚政府和行业利益相关者通过发展改良的苗木和农场基础设施,对农业部门进行了大量投资,但需要对该国经济的制造业和旅游业进行更多投资,以提高其国内生产总值。
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引用次数: 2
Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Offs In ASEAN-10 东盟10国的通胀-失业权衡
Pub Date : 2020-08-14 DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v9i2.16346
Nurul Lisani, R. Masbar, Vivi Silvia
This study empirically explores the nature of inflation-unemployment dynamic causal relationships both in the short and long-run in the ASEAN-10 over the 1989-2018 period. Based on the panel cointegration test, the study documented a long-run equilibrium between inflation and unemployment. Using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis, the study found an insignificant inflation-unemployment relationship in the short-run. However, in the long-run, inflation is found to affect the unemployment rate positively. Our results from the Variance Decompositions (VDCs) analysis also supported these findings, where the unemployment responded at the more significant percentage to shocks in inflation compared to the response of inflation to shocks in unemployment. These findings only supported the relevance of the Phillips curve theory in the long-run. Overall, these findings imply that although inflation targeting policy is not relevant to the short-run, it becomes crucial and effective to reduce the unemployment rate in ASEAN-10 in the long-run. JEL Classifications : E52, E58, J64 How to Cite: Lisani, N., Masbar, R., & Silvia, V. (2020). Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Offs In Asean-10. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 9 (2), 241-256. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i2.16346.
本研究实证探讨了1989-2018年东盟十国短期和长期通胀-失业动态因果关系的本质。基于面板协整检验,本研究证明了通货膨胀与失业之间的长期均衡。利用向量误差修正模型(VECM)分析,研究发现通货膨胀与失业之间的短期关系不显著。然而,从长期来看,通货膨胀对失业率有积极的影响。我们的方差分解(vdc)分析结果也支持了这些发现,与通胀对失业冲击的反应相比,失业对通胀冲击的反应更为显著。这些发现只支持菲利普斯曲线理论在长期的相关性。总体而言,这些研究结果表明,尽管通货膨胀目标制政策与短期无关,但从长期来看,它对降低东盟10国的失业率至关重要且有效。JEL分类:E52, E58, J64如何引用:Lisani, N., Masbar, R., & Silvia, V.(2020)。东盟10国通胀与失业的权衡。意义[j] .经济学报,9(2),241-256。https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i2.16346。
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引用次数: 6
Government of Indonesia’s Battling Strategy to Cope With Pseudo-Cooperatives 印尼政府打击伪合作社的策略
Pub Date : 2020-08-14 DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v9i2.15547
N. I. Soesilo
By contesting the political spectrum versus the economic side of regulation, it is found that the Indonesian cooperative's performance is influenced more by the first approach. As Golkar's electoral vehicle to protect its ruling party's majority vote, the cooperative apex organization (Dekopin) became a parastatal. As a 'bureaucratic capitalist' with state budget support, Dekopin's 'holdup problem' creates the 'subsidy mentality' and increasing corruption perception that stimulated the formation of pseudo-cooperatives. A bottom-up petition to remove Dekopin's parastatal status failed. By calibrating the 2012-2014 panel data, the pseudo-cooperatives decrease when active cooperatives increase. From the 2015 cross-section exercise, pseudo-cooperatives' number rises along with the growing population. External funding to cooperatives is used as a means to spend it on leisure. Many islands show different tendencies of pseudo-cooperatives' creation. In 2016, a government's economic strategy to create healthy cooperatives was started by closing down 32,778 pseudo-cooperatives. This process continued until 2019. JEL Classification : P13, C21, R51, A13 How to Cite: Soesilo, N. I. (2020). Government of Indonesia’s Battling Strategy to Cope with Pseudo-Cooperatives. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi , 9 (2), 219-240. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i2.15547.
通过对监管的政治光谱与经济方面的比较,发现印尼合作社的绩效更多地受到第一种方法的影响。作为Golkar保护其执政党多数选票的选举工具,合作最高组织(Dekopin)成为了一个半官方组织。作为一个有国家预算支持的“官僚资本家”,德科平的“滞留问题”造成了“补贴心态”和日益严重的腐败观念,刺激了伪合作社的形成。要求取消德科平半官方地位的自下而上的请愿失败了。通过校准2012-2014年面板数据,当活跃合作社增加时,伪合作社减少。从2015年的横断面调查来看,伪合作社的数量随着人口的增长而增加。合作社的外部资金被用作休闲支出的一种手段。许多岛屿表现出不同的伪合作社创建倾向。2016年,政府启动了创建健康合作社的经济战略,关闭了32778个伪合作社。这一过程一直持续到2019年。JEL分类:P13,C21,R51,A13如何引用:Soesilo,N.I.(2020)。印尼政府打击伪合作社的策略。签名:Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi,9(2),219-240。https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i2.15547.
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引用次数: 1
Bank Specific Factors and Bank Performance: Evidence from Nigeria 银行特定因素与银行绩效:来自尼日利亚的证据
Pub Date : 2020-08-14 DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v9i2.14658
Ebenezer Mayowa Ariyibi, L. Yunusa, T. Williams
The impact of bank-specific factors on the performance of the deposit money banks in a country has been an area of inquiry for any bank-based financial system. The research investigates the impacts of bank-specific factors on bank performance in Nigeria within 2014-2018. This research use panel data from ten banks that had the best deposit in 2018. The panel data approach found a significant negative relationship between asset quality and return on asset and a significant positive relationship between loan-to-deposit ratio, capital adequacy, and return on asset. In this regard, strategic management should ensure chasing their functional intermediation role and ensure liquidity preference to meet its day-to-day obligations. JEL Classification: G21, G32, C33 How to Cite: Ariyibi, E. M., Yunusa, L. A., & Williams, T. O. (2020). Bank Specific Factors and Bank Performance: Evidence from Nigeria. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi , 9 (2), 167-176. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i2.14658.
银行特定因素对一个国家存款银行绩效的影响一直是任何以银行为基础的金融系统所关注的领域。该研究调查了2014-2018年尼日利亚银行特定因素对银行业绩的影响。这项研究使用了来自2018年存款最好的十家银行的面板数据。面板数据法发现,资产质量与资产回报率之间存在显著的负相关关系,贷存比、资本充足率和资产回报率间存在显著的正相关关系。在这方面,战略管理层应确保履行其职能中介作用,并确保流动性偏好,以履行其日常义务。JEL分类:G21,G32,C33如何引用:Ariyibi,E.M.,Yunusa,L.A.和Williams,T.O.(2020)。银行特定因素与银行绩效:来自尼日利亚的证据。签名:Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi,9(2),167-176。https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i2.14658.
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引用次数: 1
Macroeconomic Determinants of Under-Five Mortality Rate in Nigeria 尼日利亚五岁以下儿童死亡率的宏观经济决定因素
Pub Date : 2020-08-14 DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v9i2.13751
K. Agbatogun, Opeloyeru, Olaide Sekinat
This paper examined the macroeconomic determinants of under-five mortality rate in Nigeria between 1980 and 2017. The study was predicated on the Grossman analytical framework rooted in the human capital development theory. A macro-econometric model incorporating major macroeconomic variables in explaining under-five mortality health outcomes. ARDL bound test estimation technique that took into consideration error correction mechanism was used. Tests of the model’s reliability were carried out using unit root and co-integration tests. The influences of government health expenditure was significant, however both immunisation initiatives and health workers exerted an insignificant positive influence on under-five mortality rate. Thus, the study recommends policies targeted to improve Nigeria health system both in terms of creation of awareness relating to the service delivery and human capital development of the professionals in the sector to avert brain drain syndrome in the country. JEL Classification : J11, J13 How to Cite: Agbatogun, K. K., & Opeloyeru, O. K. (2020). Macroeconomic Determinants of Under-Five Mortality Rate in Nigeria. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi , 9(2), 177-186. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i2.13751.
本文研究了1980年至2017年间尼日利亚五岁以下儿童死亡率的宏观经济决定因素。该研究基于Grossman分析框架,该框架植根于人力资本发展理论。一个宏观经济计量模型,结合主要宏观经济变量解释五岁以下儿童死亡率健康结果。使用了考虑误差校正机制的ARDL界测试估计技术。使用单位根和协整测试对模型的可靠性进行了测试。政府卫生支出的影响是显著的,但免疫接种倡议和卫生工作者对五岁以下儿童死亡率的积极影响都不显著。因此,该研究建议制定旨在改善尼日利亚卫生系统的政策,提高对该部门专业人员提供服务和人力资本发展的认识,以避免该国出现人才流失综合症。JEL分类:J11,J13如何引用:Agbatogun,K.K.和Opeloyeru,O.K.(2020)。尼日利亚五岁以下儿童死亡率的宏观经济决定因素。签名:Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi,9(2),177-186。https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i2.13751.
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引用次数: 3
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