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Do Driving Habits Amplify Road Risk? 驾驶习惯会增加道路风险吗?
Pub Date : 2009-07-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1430912
Mériem Maatig
Following the implementation of a set of road safety measures since 2000, the numbers of disastrous accidents have decreased. Currently, we have detailed data and statistics about drivers’ behavior. In fact, this information is not mentioned in the insurer portfolio. Therefore, it was essential to hold a summary report in order to provide a better quantitative analysis. The sample helps to identify the driving variables which might influence the driver’s claims in Paris and its suburbs. Three rules of driver’s behaviour are taken into account in order to shed lights on the relevance of the link between the accidents and the practices of control. These three rules involve (i) the permanent use of the safety belt, (ii) the acquirements of information about the emplacement of radio detection and ranging, and (iii) the use of parking sites reserved for disabled persons. While the first and the second variables do not significantly contribute in assessing or explaining claims, the third variable appears to be significant in explaining the frequency of accidents. Consequently, the use of the seat belt has recorded a significant progress during the last years.
自2000年以来,在实施了一系列道路安全措施后,灾难性事故的数量有所减少。目前,我们有关于司机行为的详细数据和统计。事实上,这些信息并没有在保险公司的投资组合中提及。因此,必须提出一份摘要报告,以便提供更好的数量分析。该样本有助于识别可能影响巴黎及其郊区司机索赔的驾驶变量。考虑到驾驶员行为的三个规则,以便阐明事故与控制实践之间的联系。这三条规则涉及(i)永久使用安全带,(ii)获取有关无线电探测和测距装置就位的信息,以及(iii)使用为残疾人保留的停车场。虽然第一个和第二个变量在评估或解释索赔方面没有显着贡献,但第三个变量在解释事故频率方面似乎很重要。因此,安全带的使用在过去几年中取得了重大进展。
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引用次数: 0
World Bank Policy Research: A Historical Overview 世界银行政策研究:历史综述
Pub Date : 2009-07-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5000
J. Dethier
The World Bank is a leading intellectual institution on development. It is a world leader in analytical studies in areas including poverty measurement, delivery of social services, impact evaluation, measurement of development outcomes, international trade and migration. It is also a leader in development data, including the Living Standard Measurement Surveys; the enterprise surveys, and the International Price Comparison Project. World Bank research is resolutely empirical and policy oriented. By both learning from past policies and operations and thinking critically about future policies, research plays a critical role in the formulation of policy advice to developing countries. This paper reviews the intellectual and institutional forces that have shaped research at the World Bank since the latter started lending to developing countries in the early 1950s. It provides an overview of the shifts in development economics that have influenced Bank research and briefly surveys the changes in research organization, structure and approach. The first section, after a short introduction, examines the shifts in positive and normative views about development during the past half century that have influenced Bank thinking. The Bank itself has been an active participant in the rise and fall of long-lived development dogmas about the nature of development; the most appropriate policies and actions for achieving it; and the respective roles of government and markets. The second section examines how the World Bank has adapted its organization to keep abreast of emerging issues and produce relevant policy research of good quality. On the one hand, the Bank has experienced several reorganizations that have affected the research unit(s) as well as its relationship with operational units. On the other hand, the Bank’s research units themselves have been reorganized at several junctures, leading to new priorities and new means of achieving them.
世界银行是发展领域领先的知识机构。它在衡量贫困、提供社会服务、影响评估、衡量发展成果、国际贸易和移徙等领域的分析研究方面处于世界领先地位。它在发展数据方面也处于领先地位,包括生活水平衡量调查;企业调查、国际比价项目。世界银行的研究坚决以实证和政策为导向。通过从过去的政策和行动中学习和批判性地思考未来的政策,研究在向发展中国家提出政策建议方面发挥着关键作用。本文回顾了自20世纪50年代初世行开始向发展中国家提供贷款以来,影响世行研究的智力和制度力量。它概述了影响世行研究的发展经济学的变化,并简要调查了研究组织、结构和方法的变化。在简短的介绍之后,第一部分考察了过去半个世纪中对发展的积极和规范观点的转变,这些转变影响了世行的思维。世界银行本身一直积极参与有关发展本质的长期发展教条的兴衰;实现这一目标的最适当政策和行动;以及政府和市场各自的角色。第二部分考察了世界银行如何调整其组织结构,以跟上新出现的问题,并开展高质量的相关政策研究。一方面,世界银行经历了几次改组,影响到研究单位及其与业务单位的关系。另一方面,世界银行的研究单位本身在几个关键时刻进行了改组,从而产生了新的优先事项和实现这些优先事项的新手段。
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引用次数: 8
The Shadow Banking System: Implications for Financial Regulation 影子银行体系:对金融监管的启示
Pub Date : 2009-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1441324
T. Adrian, H. Shin
The current financial crisis has highlighted the growing importance of the "shadow banking system," which grew out of the securitization of assets and the integration of banking with capital market developments. This trend has been most pronounced in the United States, but it has had a profound influence on the global financial system. In a market-based financial system, banking and capital market developments are inseparable: Funding conditions are closely tied to fluctuations in the leverage of market-based financial intermediaries. Growth in the balance sheets of these intermediaries provides a sense of the availability of credit, while contractions of their balance sheets have tended to precede the onset of financial crises. Securitization was intended as a way to transfer credit risk to those better able to absorb losses, but instead it increased the fragility of the entire financial system by allowing banks and other intermediaries to "leverage up" by buying one another's securities. In the new, post-crisis financial system, the role of securitization will likely be held in check by more stringent financial regulation and by the recognition that it is important to prevent excessive leverage and maturity mismatch, both of which can undermine financial stability.
当前的金融危机凸显了“影子银行体系”日益增长的重要性。“影子银行体系”是资产证券化和银行业与资本市场发展一体化的产物。这一趋势在美国最为明显,但它对全球金融体系产生了深远的影响。在以市场为基础的金融体系中,银行和资本市场的发展是不可分割的:融资条件与以市场为基础的金融中介机构杠杆率的波动密切相关。这些中介机构资产负债表的增长提供了一种信贷可用性的感觉,而它们资产负债表的收缩往往发生在金融危机爆发之前。证券化的目的是将信贷风险转移给那些更有能力吸收损失的人,但相反,它允许银行和其他中介机构通过购买彼此的证券“杠杆化”,从而增加了整个金融体系的脆弱性。在危机后的新金融体系中,证券化的作用可能会受到更严格的金融监管,并认识到防止过度杠杆和期限错配的重要性,这两者都可能破坏金融稳定。
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引用次数: 14
Why Don't Lenders Renegotiate More Home Mortgages? Redefaults, Self-Cures, and Securitization 为什么贷款人不重新协商更多的住房抵押贷款?重新默认,自我修复和证券化
Pub Date : 2009-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1433777
Manuel Adelino, Kristopher Gerardi, P. Willen
We document the fact that servicers have been reluctant to renegotiate mortgages since the foreclosure crisis started in 2007, having performed payment reducing modifications on only about 3 percent of seriously delinquent loans. We show that this reluctance does not result from securization: servicers renegotiate similarly small fractions of loans that they hold in their portfolios. Our results are robust to different definitions of renegotiation, including the one most likely to be affected by securitization, and to different definitions of delinquency. Our results are strongest in subsamples in which unobserved heterogeneity between portfolio and securitized loans is likely to be small and for subprime loans. We use a theoretical model to show that redefault risk, the possibility that a borrower will still default despite costly renegotiation, and self-cure risk, the possibility that a seriously delinquent borrower will become current without renegotiation, make renegotiation unattractive to investors.
我们记录了这样一个事实,自2007年止赎危机开始以来,服务机构一直不愿重新协商抵押贷款,只对大约3%的严重拖欠贷款进行了减少付款的修改。我们表明,这种不情愿并非源于证券化:服务机构对其投资组合中持有的贷款进行了类似的小部分重新谈判。我们的结果对于重新谈判的不同定义(包括最可能受到证券化影响的定义)和拖欠的不同定义都是稳健的。我们的结果在子样本中最强,其中未观察到的投资组合和证券化贷款之间的异质性可能很小,并且对于次级贷款。我们使用一个理论模型来表明,再违约风险,即借款人在代价高昂的重新谈判后仍会违约的可能性,以及自我修复风险,即严重违约的借款人在没有重新谈判的情况下恢复原状的可能性,使得重新谈判对投资者没有吸引力。
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引用次数: 293
Bank Competition, Risk and Asset Allocations 银行竞争、风险和资产配置
Pub Date : 2009-07-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451872903.001.A001
Gianni De Nicoló, J. Boyd, A. Jalal
We study a banking model in which banks invest in a riskless asset and compete in both deposit and risky loan markets. The model predicts that as competition increases, both loans and assets increase; however, the effect on the loans-to-assets ratio is ambiguous. Similarly, as competition increases, the probability of bank failure can either increase or decrease. We explore these predictions empirically using a cross-sectional sample of 2,500 U.S. banks in 2003, and a panel data set of about 2600 banks in 134 non-industrialized countries for the period 1993-2004. With both samples, we find that banks' probability of failure is negatively and significantly related to measures of competition, and that the loan-to-asset ratio is positively and significantly related to measures of competition. Furthermore, several loan loss measures commonly employed in the literature are negatively and significantly related to measures of bank competition. Thus, there is no evidence of a trade-off between bank competition and stability, and bank competition seems to foster banks' willingness to lend.
我们研究了一个银行模型,其中银行投资于无风险资产,并在存款和风险贷款市场上竞争。该模型预测,随着竞争加剧,贷款和资产都会增加;然而,对贷款与资产比率的影响是模糊的。同样,随着竞争的加剧,银行倒闭的可能性可能增加,也可能减少。我们利用2003年美国2500家银行的横断面样本,以及1993-2004年134个非工业化国家约2600家银行的面板数据集,对这些预测进行了实证研究。在这两个样本中,我们发现银行的破产概率与竞争指标呈显著负相关,而贷款与资产比率与竞争指标呈显著正相关。此外,文献中常用的几种贷款损失指标与银行竞争指标呈显著负相关。因此,没有证据表明银行竞争与稳定之间存在权衡关系,而且银行竞争似乎促进了银行的放贷意愿。
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引用次数: 115
How the Financial Crisis Affects Pensions and Insurance and Why the Impacts Matter 金融危机如何影响养老金和保险?为什么影响重要
Pub Date : 2009-07-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451872989.001.A001
G. Impavido, Ian Tower
This paper discusses the key sources of vulnerabilities for pension plans and insurance companies in light of the global financial crisis of 2008. It also discusses how these institutional investors transit shocks to the rest of the financial sector and economy. The crisis has re-ignited the policy debate on key issues such as: 1) the need for countercyclical funding and solvency rules; 2) the tradeoffs implied in marked based valuation rules; 3) the need to protect contributors towards retirement from excessive market volatility; 4) the need to strengthen group supervision for large complex financial institutions including insurance and pensions; and 5) the need to revisit the resolution and crisis management framework for insurance and pensions.
本文在2008年全球金融危机的背景下讨论了养老金计划和保险公司脆弱性的主要来源。它还讨论了这些机构投资者如何将冲击转移到金融部门和经济的其他部分。这场危机重新点燃了围绕以下关键问题的政策辩论:1)制定反周期融资和偿付能力规则的必要性;2)基于标记的估值规则所隐含的权衡;3)有必要保护退休人员免受过度市场波动的影响;4)需要加强对保险、养老金等大型复杂金融机构的集团监管;5)需要重新审视保险和养老金的解决和危机管理框架。
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引用次数: 60
Asymmetric Information and Loan Spreads in Russia: Evidence from Syndicated Loans 信息不对称与俄罗斯贷款息差:来自银团贷款的证据
Pub Date : 2009-06-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1428239
Zuzana Fungáčová, Christophe J. Godlewski, L. Weill
This paper considers whether local bank participation exerts an impact on the spreads for syndicated loans in Russia. Following Berger, Klapper and Udell (2001), we test whether local banks possess a superior ability to deal with information asymmetries. Using a sample of 528 syndicated loans to Russian borrowers, we perform regressions of the spread on a set of variables including information on local bank participation and the characteristics of loans and borrowers. Unlike earlier studies, we distinguish foreign banks with a local presence from those without such presence. The intuition here is that a local presence may influence a foreign bank’s monitoring ability and access to information about borrowers. We observe no significant impact on the spread when there is local bank participation in a syndicated loan, nor do we find any significant influence of the presence of domestic-owned banks or foreign-owned banks on the spread. Additional estimations considering subsamples with exacerbated information asymmetries provide similar results. Therefore our conclusion is that local banks do not benefit from an advantage in monitoring ability and in information in Russia.
本文研究了俄罗斯当地银行的参与是否会对银团贷款的利差产生影响。继Berger、Klapper和Udell(2001)之后,我们检验了地方银行是否具有更强的处理信息不对称的能力。我们以俄罗斯借款人的528笔银团贷款为样本,对一组变量(包括当地银行参与信息以及贷款和借款人的特征)进行了利差回归。与之前的研究不同,我们将在当地开展业务的外资银行与没有在当地开展业务的外资银行区分开来。这里的直觉是,当地存在可能会影响外国银行的监控能力和获取借款人信息的能力。我们观察到,当本地银行参与银团贷款时,对利差没有显著影响,我们也没有发现内资银行或外资银行的存在对利差有显著影响。考虑信息不对称加剧的子样本的额外估计提供了类似的结果。因此,我们的结论是,俄罗斯的地方银行并没有从监测能力和信息优势中受益。
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引用次数: 11
Electronic Trading of Distressed Bank Loans 不良银行贷款的电子交易
Pub Date : 2009-06-16 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1420702
R. Manickam
An electronic stock exchange is a market place where buyers and sellers of financial instruments conclude trades without physical contact. In India, we have electronic exchanges for currencies, commodities, equity, debt, etc. This article looks at the need for and importance of an electronic exchange for distressed bank loans and outlines the benefits that banks and financial institutions can realize by using the electronic trading platform for distressed loan sales. RBI issued detailed procedural guidelines in July, 2005 for sale of distressed loans to banks and ARCs (Asset Reconstruction Companies). It is observed that the performance of banks on the loan sales front is very tardy. The reasons are not far to seek. Currently, all loan sale deals are done off line and the entire loan sales cycle take about 45 to 60 days on an average. Introduction of electronic trading would substantially bring down the transaction processing time to less than a week.
电子证券交易所是金融工具的买方和卖方在没有实际接触的情况下完成交易的市场。在印度,我们有货币、商品、股票、债务等的电子交易所。本文着眼于不良银行贷款电子交易的必要性和重要性,并概述了银行和金融机构通过使用不良贷款销售电子交易平台可以实现的好处。印度储备银行于2005年7月发布了向银行和资产重建公司出售不良贷款的详细程序指导方针。据观察,银行在贷款销售方面的表现非常迟缓。原因不难找到。目前,所有的贷款销售交易都是线下完成的,整个贷款销售周期平均需要45到60天。电子交易的引入将大大缩短交易处理时间,缩短至不到一星期。
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引用次数: 0
A Global Liquidity Factor for Fixed Income Pricing 固定收益定价的全球流动性因素
Pub Date : 2009-06-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1316820
Andreas Gintschel, Christian Wiehenkamp
Liquidity premiums have been widely documented for equity and bond markets. However, there is a lack of easily implementable measures of systematic liquidity for bond markets, which are typically far less liquid. We show that a simple liquidity factor - based on the difference between corporate bond spreads and credit default swaps - is signifcantly associated with returns in a wide range of fixed income markets. The corresponding liquidity premium is time-varying but persistent and drives a fair amount of serial and cross-sectional variation in fixed income prices. Moreover, liquidity exposure varies predictably with maturity and credit rating suggesting a ight-to-quality phenomenon.
流动性溢价已经在股票和债券市场得到了广泛的证明。然而,债券市场缺乏易于实施的系统性流动性指标,而债券市场的流动性通常要低得多。我们表明,一个简单的流动性因素——基于公司债券息差和信用违约掉期之间的差异——与广泛的固定收益市场的回报显著相关。相应的流动性溢价是时变的,但持续存在,并驱动固定收益价格的相当数量的序列和横截面变化。此外,流动性敞口随期限和信用评级的变化可预测,这表明存在一种从权利到质量的现象。
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引用次数: 2
Financial Regulation and the Current Crisis: A Guide for the Antitrust Community 金融监管与当前危机:反垄断界指南
Pub Date : 2009-06-11 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1426188
L. White
The U.S. financial crisis of 2007-2008 has been a searing experience. The popping of a housing bubble exposed the subprime lending debacle, which in turn created a wider financial crisis. In its response to this crisis, the federal government has provided financial assistance to a number of financial institutions that are often described as 'too big to fail' (TBTF) – which, to those who associate antitrust with size, seems to bring antitrust potentially into the picture. This paper will offer a guide to the antitrust community that will cover the U.S. financial sector, financial regulation, and the debacle and subsequent financial crisis. The tensions that can arise between financial regulation and antitrust will be highlighted. TBTF is not one of them, however, because TBTF is about size and interconnectedness, but not about competition and market power. Although much progress has been made in removing anticompetitive elements from financial regulation over the past three to four decades, there are still important advances that can be made. The paper concludes by offering a set of policy recommendations for the removal of some of the important remaining elements of financial regulation that impede competition.
2007年至2008年的美国金融危机是一次痛苦的经历。房地产泡沫的破裂暴露了次级贷款的崩溃,这反过来又造成了更广泛的金融危机。为了应对这场危机,联邦政府向一些经常被描述为“太大而不能倒”(TBTF)的金融机构提供了财政援助——对于那些将反垄断与规模联系在一起的人来说,这似乎潜在地将反垄断带入了图景中。本文将为反垄断界提供指南,涵盖美国金融部门、金融监管、崩溃和随后的金融危机。金融监管和反垄断之间可能产生的紧张关系将会得到强调。然而,TBTF不是其中之一,因为TBTF关注的是规模和互联性,而不是竞争和市场力量。尽管在过去三、四十年中,在消除金融监管中的反竞争因素方面取得了很大进展,但仍有重大进展可以取得。论文最后提出了一套政策建议,以消除金融监管中阻碍竞争的一些重要因素。
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引用次数: 18
期刊
Banking & Insurance
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