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Background Considerations to a Regulation of the U.S. Financial System: Third Time a Charm? Or Strike Three? 对美国金融体系监管的背景思考:第三次是魅力?还是第三振?
Pub Date : 2009-04-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1394460
J. Kregel
United States financial regulation has traditionally made functional and institutional regulation roughly equivalent. However, the gradual shift away from Glass-Steagall and the introduction of the Financial Modernization Act (FMA) generated a disorderly mix of functions and products across institutions, creating regulatory gaps that contributed to the recent crisis. An analysis of this history suggests that a return to regulation by function or product would strengthen regulation. The FMA also made a choice in favor of financial holding companies over universal banks, but without recognizing that both types of structure require specific regulatory regimes. The paper reviews the specific regime that has been used by Germany in regulating its universal banks and suggests that a similar regime adapted to holding companies should be developed.
美国的金融监管传统上使职能监管和机构监管大致等同。然而,格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案的逐渐退出和《金融现代化法案》(Financial Modernization Act, FMA)的引入,导致了各机构职能和产品的无序组合,造成了监管缺口,导致了最近的危机。对这段历史的分析表明,回归按功能或产品进行监管将加强监管。FMA还做出了支持金融控股公司而非全能银行的选择,但没有认识到这两种结构都需要特定的监管制度。这篇论文回顾了德国在监管其全能银行方面所采用的具体制度,并建议应制定一套适用于控股公司的类似制度。
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引用次数: 11
Are Indian Life Insurance Companies Cost Efficient? 印度人寿保险公司是否具有成本效益?
Pub Date : 2009-04-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1391904
R. Sinha, B. Chatterjee
The present paper estimated cost efficiency of the Life insurance companies operating in India for the period 2002-03 to 2006-07 using the new cost efficiency approach suggested by Tone (2002). The results suggest an upward trend in cost efficiency of the observed life insurers between 2002-03 and 2004-05. However, the trend was reversed for the next two years i.e. 2005-06 and 2006-07. This has been so because of the fact that during the initial years of observation. Mean cost efficiency of the private life insurers was rising but the trend was reversed in 2005-06 and 2006-07.
本论文使用Tone(2002)提出的新成本效率方法估计了2002-03年至2006-07年期间在印度经营的人寿保险公司的成本效率。结果表明,在2002-03年和2004-05年期间,所观察的寿险公司的成本效率呈上升趋势。然而,在接下来的两年,即2005-06年和2006-07年,这一趋势发生了逆转。这是因为在最初几年的观察中。私人寿险公司的平均成本效率在上升,但在2005-06年度和2006-07年度,这一趋势出现逆转。
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引用次数: 20
Does Relationship Lending Promote Growth? Savings Banks and SME Financing 关系借贷促进经济增长吗?储蓄银行和中小企业融资
Pub Date : 2009-04-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1376251
Constantin Slotty
This paper addresses the question whether close borrower-lender relationships, so called hausbank-relationships, facilitate the funding and beneficial development of SME. To this end, we derive a model which relates a firm's growth rate to its need for external funds and subsequently compute the firms that exceed their predicted growth rate. We then use this measure to identify specific characteristics that are associated with long- and short-term financing of firm growth, in particular the influence of relationship lending. We find that close ties with savings banks predict firms' access to external finance to fund growth. Moreover, the long-term liabilities of firms with hausbank-relationships almost double those with multiple relationships while the overall leverage is about the same. In turn, we find an strong empirical relationship between the provision of long-term funds and firm growth.
本文探讨了紧密的借贷关系(即所谓的“银行关系”)是否有助于中小企业的融资和有益发展。为此,我们推导了一个模型,该模型将企业的增长率与其对外部资金的需求联系起来,并随后计算出超出其预测增长率的企业。然后,我们使用这一措施来确定与企业成长的长期和短期融资相关的具体特征,特别是关系贷款的影响。我们发现,与储蓄银行的密切联系预示着公司获得外部融资以资助增长。此外,拥有多家银行关系的公司的长期负债几乎是拥有多家银行关系的公司的两倍,而总体杠杆率大致相同。反过来,我们发现长期资金的提供与公司成长之间存在很强的实证关系。
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引用次数: 6
Banking on Politics 政治银行
Pub Date : 2009-04-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4902
M. Braun, C. Raddatz
This paper presents new data from 150 countries showing that former cabinet members, central bank governors, and financial regulators are many orders of magnitude more likely than other citizens to become board members of banks. Countries where the politician-banker phenomenon is more prevalent have higher corruption and more powerful yet less accountable governments, but not better functioning financial systems. Regulation becomes more pro-banker where this happens more often. Furthermore, a higher fraction of the rents that are created accrue to bankers, former politicians are not more likely to be directors when their side is in power, and banks are more profitable without being more leveraged. Rather than supporting a public interest view, the evidence is consistent with a capture-type private interest story where, in exchange for a non-executive position at a bank in the future, politicians provide for beneficial regulation.
本文提出了来自150个国家的新数据,这些数据表明,前内阁成员、央行行长和金融监管者成为银行董事会成员的可能性比其他公民高出许多个数量级。政客-银行家现象更为普遍的国家,腐败程度更高,政府权力更大,但问责更少,但金融体系却没有更好的运作。在这种情况发生得更频繁的地方,监管会变得更有利于银行家。此外,银行产生的租金中有很大一部分归银行家所有,前政治家在他们一方掌权时不太可能担任董事,而银行在不增加杠杆的情况下更有利可图。这些证据并不支持公共利益观点,而是与一种俘获式的私人利益故事相一致。在这种故事中,政客们提供有益的监管,以换取未来在银行担任非执行职务。
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引用次数: 19
Exposure to Real Estate Losses: Evidence from the Us Banks 房地产损失敞口:来自美国银行的证据
Pub Date : 2009-04-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451872262.001
Deniz Igan, M. Pinheiro
We implement a three-step procedure to assess the extent of exposure to real estate in commercial banks. First, we demonstrate interest rates and income to be the major determinants of delinquency. Then, we adopt a stress testing approach to calculate the impact of any adverse changes in these determinants. This suggests that a 1.3 percentage point increase in mortgage interest rate leads to a 20 percent decrease in a typical bank's distance to default. Finally, we look at the cross-sectional differences and indentify the banks with rapid loan growth along with high cost-income ratio as the most vulnerable.
我们实施了一个三步程序来评估商业银行对房地产的敞口程度。首先,我们证明利率和收入是拖欠的主要决定因素。然后,我们采用压力测试方法来计算这些决定因素中任何不利变化的影响。这表明,抵押贷款利率每提高1.3个百分点,一家典型银行的违约距离就会降低20%。最后,我们看一下横断面差异,并确定贷款快速增长以及高成本收入比的银行是最脆弱的。
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引用次数: 4
Including Financial Services in Preferential Trade Agreements: Lessons of International Experience for China 将金融服务纳入优惠贸易协定:国际经验对中国的启示
Pub Date : 2009-04-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4898
Constantinos Stephanou
The objective of this paper is to address the main considerations for China of including financial services in its preferential trade agreements. The paper briefly reviews China's financial liberalization process and the state of its domestic financial system, discusses the main considerations of including financial services in China's preferential trade agreements, compares and contrasts the different 'architectural' approaches that have been used by countries to include financial services in such agreements, and identifies good practices in preparing for financial services negotiations. Particular emphasis is placed on lessons from Latin American preferential trade agreements, given their more frequent and extensive coverage of financial services compared with other regions.
本文的目的是解决中国将金融服务纳入其优惠贸易协定的主要考虑因素。本文简要回顾了中国的金融自由化进程及其国内金融体系的现状,讨论了将金融服务纳入中国优惠贸易协定的主要考虑因素,比较和对比了各国在将金融服务纳入此类协定时使用的不同“架构”方法,并确定了为金融服务谈判做准备的良好做法。特别强调拉丁美洲优惠贸易协定的教训,因为与其他区域相比,这些协定更频繁和广泛地涉及金融服务。
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引用次数: 1
Gender and Sources of Finance in Finnish SMEs: A Contextual View 性别与芬兰中小企业的资金来源:语境视角
Pub Date : 2009-03-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1371023
P. Eriksson, S. Katila, Mervi Niskanen
The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of gender on the usage of different funding sources in a sample of Finnish SMEs. The aim is also to embed the results into the country-context, which is characterized by the long history of women's economic activity and bank-based capital markets. The funding patterns of women owned SMEs (WOS) and men owned SMEs (MOS) in the data are different: WOS are more likely to use additional equity investments by current owners as a funding source. They do so at least partly because of their positive attitudes towards this funding source. The results also contradict prior studies, which indicate that MOS have easier access to bank lending. Our results suggest that there are no gender-related differences in the use of bank debt. Also in contrast to prior studies, we find no differences in firm size or profitability between WOS and MOS. The results of our study both confirm and contradict the results of prior research and we suggest that this is due to the context-specific features of the Finnish labor market and the gender system as well as the bank-centered financial markets. Concerning the issues of gender and finance, policy makers and financial experts in any country should not uncritically rely on the research results arrived at in other countries.
本研究的目的是调查性别对芬兰中小企业使用不同资金来源的影响。其目的还在于将结果纳入国家背景,其特点是妇女经济活动和以银行为基础的资本市场的悠久历史。数据中,女性拥有的中小企业(WOS)和男性拥有的中小企业(MOS)的融资模式不同:女性拥有的中小企业更有可能使用现有所有者的额外股权投资作为融资来源。他们这样做至少部分是因为他们对这一资金来源持积极态度。这一结果也与之前的研究相矛盾,之前的研究表明,低收入家庭更容易获得银行贷款。我们的研究结果表明,在使用银行债务方面没有性别差异。此外,与先前的研究相比,我们发现WOS和MOS之间的企业规模或盈利能力没有差异。我们的研究结果既证实了之前的研究结果,也与之相矛盾。我们认为,这是由于芬兰劳动力市场和性别制度以及以银行为中心的金融市场的具体背景特征造成的。关于性别和金融问题,任何国家的决策者和金融专家都不应不加批判地依赖其他国家的研究结果。
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引用次数: 27
The GARCH Structural Credit Risk Model: Simulation Analysis and Application to the Bank CDS Market During the 2007-2008 Crisis GARCH结构信用风险模型:2007-2008年金融危机期间银行CDS市场的模拟分析及应用
Pub Date : 2009-03-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1364473
Samuel W. Malone, Abel Rodríguez, Enrique ter Horst
We develop a structural credit risk model in which the unobserved asset volatility of the firm follows a GARCH process, as in Heston and Nandi (2000). We estimate our model using an Expectation Maximization algorithm, and benchmark it using simulated data against the Merton (1974) model, both when the latter is calibrated, and when its parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood techniques as in Duan (1994). The Duan method slightly outperforms GARCH when asset volatility is constant, and GARCH significantly outperforms both the Merton and Duan models when the asset follows a GARCH process. An application of the three models studied to the CDS market for the debt of US banks and financial corporations during the period 2007-2008 indicates high levels of asset volatility and financial leverage for many major banks during this period, although only moderate evidence of stochastic volatility. The GARCH model outperforms both the Duan and Merton models in out-of-sample CDS spread prediction. We document a wide incidence of inversion of the spread term structure in the CDS market, both in 2007 and 2008, and all three models exhibit an inverted spread term structure for all banks studied. The group of banks in which the models are able to generate nontrivial spreads is characterized by significantly higher equity time series volatility, higher average CDS spreads across all maturities, and a higher incidence of spread term structure inversion.
我们开发了一个结构性信用风险模型,其中公司未观察到的资产波动遵循GARCH过程,如Heston和Nandi(2000)所述。我们使用期望最大化算法估计我们的模型,并使用模拟数据对Merton(1974)模型进行基准测试,当后者被校准时,以及当其参数使用最大似然技术估计时,如Duan(1994)。当资产波动率恒定时,Duan方法略优于GARCH方法,当资产遵循GARCH过程时,GARCH方法明显优于Merton模型和Duan模型。将所研究的三个模型应用于2007-2008年期间美国银行和金融公司债务的CDS市场表明,在此期间,许多主要银行的资产波动性和财务杠杆水平很高,尽管只有适度的随机波动证据。GARCH模型在样本外CDS价差预测方面优于Duan模型和Merton模型。我们在2007年和2008年记录了CDS市场中利差期限结构反转的广泛发生率,并且所有三个模型都显示了所有研究银行的反向利差期限结构。模型能够产生非平凡利差的银行组具有显著更高的股票时间序列波动性,所有期限的平均CDS利差更高,利差期限结构反转的发生率更高。
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引用次数: 6
An Overview of Credit Derivatives 信用衍生品概述
Pub Date : 2009-03-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1307880
K. Giesecke
Credit risk is the distribution of nancial loss due to a broken nancial agreement, for example failure to pay interest or principal on a loan or bond. It pervades virtually all nancial transactions, and therefore plays a signicant role in nancial markets. A credit derivative is a security that allows investors to transfer credit risk to other investors who are willing to take it. By facilitating the allocation of risk, these instruments have an important economic function. Yet they have hit the headlines recently. This paper gives an overview of credit derivatives. It discusses the mechanics of standard contracts, describes their application, and outlines the mathematical challenges associated with their analysis.
信用风险是由于违反金融协议而造成的金融损失的分配,例如未能支付贷款或债券的利息或本金。它几乎遍及所有的金融交易,因此在金融市场中起着重要作用。信用衍生品是一种证券,它允许投资者将信用风险转移给愿意承担风险的其他投资者。通过促进风险分配,这些工具具有重要的经济功能。然而,他们最近却登上了新闻头条。本文对信用衍生品进行了概述。它讨论了标准契约的机制,描述了它们的应用,并概述了与它们的分析相关的数学挑战。
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引用次数: 15
On the Behaviour and Determinants of Risk-Based Capital Ratios: Revisiting the Evidence from UK Banking Institutions 基于风险的资本比率的行为和决定因素:重新审视来自英国银行机构的证据
Pub Date : 2009-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1393376
W. Francis, M. Osborne
Using bank-level panel data from the United Kingdom, this paper investigates the factors that influence banking institutions' choice of risk-based capital ratios. Special focus is placed on evaluating whether and how institutions respond to changes in regulatory capital requirements and if these responses vary across the economic cycle. This issue is of particular interest to policymakers that rely on capital regulation in conjunction with other supervisory tools to affect bank behaviours and maintain market confidence and financial stability more broadly. The paper also explores the extent to which UK banks’ capital management practices were procyclical under Basel I. Understanding whether such practices existed under this less risk-sensitive (and potentially, less procyclical) regulatory capital regime is a useful first step towards determining if banks, in their capital management practices, consider swings in economic conditions on their capital positions and lending capacities, which may, in turn, impact on the severity and duration of such economic cycles.We find a statistically significant association between banks' risk-based capital ratios and individual capital requirements set by regulators in the UK. We also find that the rate at which banks respond to changing capital requirements depends significantly on certain characteristics of the bank (e.g., size, exposure to market discipline, nearness to regulatory threshold) as well as the direction of the economic cycle. We find a (marginally statistically significant) negative association between capital ratios and the economic cycle, but no association when we focus only on the largest banks in the UK, suggesting that systemically important banks tend to maintain risk-based capital ratios over the cycle (although we note that this finding is based on a sample period which does not contain a significant downturn). Further, we note a positive association between capital ratios and capital quality, suggesting that reliance on capital with relatively higher adjustment costs (e.g., tier 1 capital) may raise the profile of that consideration in capital management practices and lead cost-minimizing banks to maintain higher total risk-based capital ratios overall. Finally, we find a positive marginal effect of market discipline on total risk-based capital ratios held by UK banks. We interpret this result as suggesting that banks mitigate expected market reactions (e.g., on their funding costs or ability to access certain capital markets activities) to their business decisions by holding higher capital ratios.
本文利用来自英国的银行层面的面板数据,研究了影响银行机构选择基于风险的资本比率的因素。特别侧重于评估机构是否以及如何应对监管资本要求的变化,以及这些反应是否在整个经济周期中有所不同。对于那些依赖资本监管和其他监管工具来影响银行行为、在更大范围内维护市场信心和金融稳定的政策制定者来说,这个问题尤为重要。本文还探讨了在巴塞尔协议i下,英国银行的资本管理实践在多大程度上是顺周期的。了解在这种风险敏感性较低的(潜在的,顺周期较低的)监管资本制度下是否存在此类实践,是确定银行在其资本管理实践中是否考虑经济状况对其资本状况和贷款能力的波动的有用的第一步。对这种经济周期的严重程度和持续时间的影响。我们发现银行基于风险的资本比率与英国监管机构设定的个人资本要求之间存在统计学上显著的关联。我们还发现,银行对不断变化的资本要求做出反应的速度在很大程度上取决于银行的某些特征(例如,规模、对市场纪律的敞口、接近监管门槛的程度)以及经济周期的方向。我们发现资本比率与经济周期之间存在(统计学上显著的)负相关,但当我们只关注英国最大的银行时,没有关联,这表明具有系统重要性的银行倾向于在周期内保持基于风险的资本比率(尽管我们注意到这一发现是基于不包含显著低迷的样本时期)。此外,我们注意到资本比率与资本质量之间存在正相关关系,这表明对调整成本相对较高的资本(例如,一级资本)的依赖可能会提高资本管理实践中这一考虑的形象,并导致成本最小化的银行总体上保持较高的基于风险的总资本比率。最后,我们发现市场纪律对英国银行持有的基于风险的总资本比率具有正的边际效应。我们将这一结果解释为,银行通过持有更高的资本比率,减轻了预期的市场反应(例如,对其融资成本或参与某些资本市场活动的能力)对其业务决策的影响。
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引用次数: 23
期刊
Banking & Insurance
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