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Policy Incentives and the Extension of Mortgage Credit: Increasing Market Discipline for Subprime Lending 政策激励和抵押信贷的扩展:增强次级贷款的市场纪律
Pub Date : 2009-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1146725
Xudong An, Raphael W. Bostic
The lax underwriting in non-prime mortgage markets is widely perceived as one cause of the recent difficulties in the housing market. Policymakers are currently considering moves such as enforcing more careful underwriting to provide additional discipline to mortgage markets. This research explores the possibility of another approach to supplement or replace some of these efforts, namely the use of policy to create incentives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (together, the GSEs) to help “check” behavior in non-prime markets. The hypothesis is that the GSE Act affordable housing goals have increased GSE focus on targeted loan purchases, which in turn has led prime market lenders to compete more aggressively for borrowers on the margin between prime and subprime credit quality. As a consequence, these marginal borrowers will be more inclined to take prime mortgages rather than higher-cost subprime loans. We test this hypothesis and find empirical support for it. We observe a negative relationship between the growth in GSE market share and the growth in subprime market share over time, and find that the impact of the GSEs on subprime lending tends to be stronger in high-minority neighborhoods, where subprime lending has been concentrated and growing the fastest. Simulations show that a 10 percent increase in GSE market share (for example, from 20 to 22 percent) can cause 45,000 borrowers using prime instead of subprime loans a cost savings of about $1.7 billion. These results suggest that the GSEs, regardless of their postconservatorship form, should continue to devote attention to serving underserved populations and suggest that significant welfare benefits will accrue. © 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.
人们普遍认为,非优质抵押贷款市场的松懈承销是最近房地产市场出现困境的原因之一。政策制定者目前正在考虑实施更谨慎的承销等举措,为抵押贷款市场提供额外的约束。本研究探讨了另一种方法补充或取代这些努力的可能性,即利用政策为房利美和房地美(合为两家gse)创造激励,以帮助“检查”非优质市场的行为。假设是,GSE法案的可负担住房目标增加了GSE对目标贷款购买的关注,这反过来又导致优质市场贷款机构在优质和次级信贷质量之间的差额上更积极地争夺借款人。因此,这些边际借款人将更倾向于接受优质抵押贷款,而不是成本更高的次级贷款。我们检验这个假设,并为它找到实证支持。我们观察到,随着时间的推移,GSE市场份额的增长与次级市场份额的增长之间存在负相关关系,并且发现,在次级贷款集中且增长最快的少数族裔社区,GSE对次级贷款的影响往往更大。模拟显示,GSE市场份额增加10%(例如,从20%增加到22%)可以使45,000名借款人使用优质贷款而不是次级贷款,从而节省约17亿美元的成本。这些结果表明,政府资助企业,无论其后保护形式,应继续关注服务不足的人群,并表明显著的福利效益将积累。©2009公共政策分析与管理协会。
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引用次数: 20
Service Quality Provided by Public Sector Banks to SME Customers: An Empirical Study in the Indian Context 公共部门银行对中小企业客户的服务质量:印度背景下的实证研究
Pub Date : 2009-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1412791
G. Popli, D. Rao
In banking sector, the quality of customer service plays an important role, particularly in the context of growing competition and sustained business growth. The study is an attempt to ascertain the service quality provided by Public Sector Banks to Small & Medium Enterprises which play a key role in India’s economy. The major findings of the study have been that 1. Modernization and Communication affect the services to a large extent and there is a need of training to the staff for improvement of service to the SMEs customers; 2. The service quality of private banks is superior to that of Public sector banks; 3. Majority of the respondents revealed that the credit flow to SMEs sector is not sufficient and the Government will have to initiate necessary steps for making the required funds available easily on convenient terms; 4. Majority of the respondents feel that the policies for SME Sector of other countries are far better from the policies of India; 5. Delay in loan application processing due to unhelpful nature of the staff members, as claimed by the majority of the respondents. The banks usually provide finance against security and as high as 86% of the respondents are of the view that the banks ask for collateral security/guarantee from a third party even where the project has been assessed as viable and primary security is adequate.
在银行业,客户服务的质量起着重要的作用,特别是在竞争日益激烈和业务持续增长的背景下。该研究旨在确定公共部门银行为中小型企业提供的服务质量,中小型企业在印度经济中发挥着关键作用。这项研究的主要发现是:1。现代化和通信在很大程度上影响了服务,需要对员工进行培训,以改善对中小企业客户的服务;2. 民营银行的服务质量优于国有银行;3.大多数受访者表示,中小企业的信贷不足,政府必须采取必要措施,以便利的条件,使所需的资金容易获得;4. 大多数受访者认为,其他国家的中小企业政策远远好于印度的政策;5. 延迟贷款申请的处理,由于工作人员的无帮助的性质,声称由大多数答复。银行通常提供担保融资,高达86%的受访者认为,即使项目已被评估为可行且主要担保足够,银行也会要求第三方提供担保/担保。
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引用次数: 1
Portfolio Optimisation with a Value at Risk Constraint in the Presence of Unhedgeable Risks 存在不可对冲风险时具有风险约束值的投资组合优化
Pub Date : 2009-05-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1289284
M. Janssen
This paper addresses the type of portfolio optimisation problem that most European insurance companies will face after the introduction of Solvency II (the new regulatory framework in Europe to be introduced in 2013). Solvency II will limit the total Value at Risk of an insurance company. In this paper therefore we derive the optimal portfolio of hedgeable risks when also unhedgeable risks are present and the sum of both risks is constrained by a Value at Risk constraint. This paper extends the current literature on portfolio optimisation by including both a Value at Risk constraint and unhedgeable risks where in the current literature maximally only one of these two is included. To obtain flexibility with respect to assumptions regarding the probability functions of both the hedgeable and unhedgeable risks, the state price density and the utility function used, the problem is optimised numerically. An example shows the importance of a correct specification of the characteristics of the hedgeable risk. The results also show that the optimal portfolio is much less skewed than the optimal portfolio that is obtained when only hedgeable risks are present.
本文解决了大多数欧洲保险公司在引入偿付能力II(欧洲将于2013年引入的新监管框架)后将面临的投资组合优化问题。偿付能力II将限制保险公司的总风险价值。因此,本文导出了当存在不可对冲风险且两种风险之和受风险值约束时,可对冲风险的最优组合。本文通过包括风险值约束和不可对冲风险来扩展当前关于投资组合优化的文献,其中在当前文献中最大限度地只包括这两者中的一个。为了获得关于可对冲和不可对冲风险的概率函数、状态价格密度和所使用的效用函数的假设的灵活性,对问题进行了数值优化。一个例子说明了正确说明可对冲风险特征的重要性。结果还表明,与仅存在可对冲风险时获得的最优投资组合相比,最优投资组合的倾斜程度要小得多。
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引用次数: 3
Restorative Justice for Banks Through Negative Licensing 通过负面许可对银行进行恢复性司法
Pub Date : 2009-05-20 DOI: 10.1093/BJC/AZP038
J. Braithwaite
The most general lesson of the crime prevention literature is taken to be that repeat victimization and repeat offending are concentrated in time and space; early intervention to prevent wider inflammation of such hot spots is more effective than reactive general deterrence (as in economic models of crime). That prescription is applied to how the 2008 financial crisis might have been prevented and how the crimes of Enron and Arthur Andersen might have been tackled to ameliorate the 2001 crisis. Negative licensing based on walking the beat and kicking the tyres at financial hot spots, with reduced reliance on economic models of risk, is one remedy advocated. Then the threat of negative licensing might be used to motivate restorative justice that transforms the ethical culture, particularly the bonus culture, of banks.
预防犯罪文献中最普遍的教训是,重复受害和重复犯罪集中在时间和空间上;早期干预以防止这些热点的更广泛的炎症比反应性的一般威慑更有效(就像在犯罪的经济模型中一样)。这一处方适用于2008年金融危机本可以如何预防,以及安然(Enron)和安达信(Arthur Andersen)的罪行本可以如何解决,以缓解2001年的危机。人们提倡的一种补救措施是,基于在金融热点地区走马看花的负面许可,减少对经济风险模型的依赖。然后,负面许可的威胁可能会被用来激励恢复性司法,从而改变银行的道德文化,尤其是奖金文化。
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引用次数: 37
Corporate Governance Issues for Central Banks 央行的公司治理问题
Pub Date : 2009-05-20 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1407443
Miriam Musaali
Corporate Governance was ably defined by Sir Adrian Cadbury as the system by which companies are directed and controlled. Corporate Governance is critical to the soundness of financial systems world over. The Central Banks like everybody else needs to step up its corporate Governance practices and ensure that the Financial Institutions that they govern follow suit. This paper covers the following: 1) Why Corporate Governance is critical to Central Banks? 2) What Corporate Governance issues are relevant to Central Banks and the entities that they regulate? 3) What Corporate Governance issues are embedded in the guidelines set by Basel Committee on Banking Supervision?
阿德里安•吉百利爵士(Sir Adrian Cadbury)将公司治理巧妙地定义为指导和控制公司的制度。公司治理对全球金融体系的健全至关重要。央行和其他所有人一样,需要加强公司治理实践,并确保它们所管理的金融机构也能效仿。本文主要研究以下内容:1)为什么公司治理对央行至关重要?2)哪些公司治理问题与央行及其监管的实体相关?3)巴塞尔银行监管委员会制定的指导方针中包含哪些公司治理问题?
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引用次数: 0
Avoiding International Financial Crises, an Incomplete Reform Agenda 避免国际金融危机:一个不完整的改革议程
Pub Date : 2009-05-19 DOI: 10.1057/9781137328878_7
J. Dermine
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引用次数: 4
How Important Are Endogenous Peer Effects in Group Lending? Estimating a Static Game of Incomplete Information 群体借贷中的内生同伴效应有多重要?不完全信息静态博弈的估计
Pub Date : 2009-05-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1402286
Shanjun Li, Yanyan Liu, K. Deininger
We quantify the importance of endogenous peer effects in group lending programs by estimating a static game of incomplete information. Endogenous peer effects describe how one's behavior is affected by the behavior of her peers. Using a rich data set from a group lending program in India, our empirical analysis presents a robust finding of large peer effects. The benchmark model suggests that the probability of a member making a full repayment would be 11 percentage points higher if all the fellow members were to make full repayment compared with a scenario in which none of the other members repay in full. We find that peer effects would be overestimated without controlling for unobserved group heterogeneity and that inconsistencies exist in the estimated effects of other variables without modeling peer effects and unobserved heterogeneity.
我们通过估计一个不完全信息的静态博弈,量化了群体借贷项目中内生同伴效应的重要性。内生同伴效应描述了一个人的行为如何受到同伴行为的影响。利用来自印度一个集团贷款项目的丰富数据集,我们的实证分析显示了巨大的同伴效应的有力发现。基准模型表明,如果所有其他成员都全额还款,那么与其他成员都不全额还款的情况相比,一个成员全额还款的概率将高出11个百分点。我们发现,如果不控制未观察到的群体异质性,同伴效应会被高估;如果不模拟同伴效应和未观察到的异质性,其他变量的估计效应存在不一致性。
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引用次数: 17
Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization 金融一体化和经济周期同步
Pub Date : 2009-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1364375
S. Kalemli‐Ozcan, E. Papaioannou, J. Peydró
Standard theory predicts that financial integration leads to a lower degree of business cycle synchronization. Surprisingly, cross-country studies find the opposite. Our contribution is to document the theoretically predicted negative effect of financial integration on business cycle synchronization as a robust regularity. We use a confidential dataset on banks' international bilateral exposure over the past three decades in a panel of twenty developed countries. The rich panel structure allows us to control for time-invariant country-pair factors and global trends that affect both financial integration and business cycle patterns. In contrast to previous empirical work we find that a higher degree of financial integration is associated with less synchronized output cycles. We also employ two distinct instrumental variable approaches to identify the one-way effect of integration on synchronization. These specifications reveal that the component of banking integration predicted by legislative-regulatory harmonization policies and the nature of the bilateral exchange rate regime has a negative effect on output synchronization.
标准理论预测,金融一体化导致经济周期同步程度较低。令人惊讶的是,跨国研究得出了相反的结论。我们的贡献是证明了理论预测的金融整合对经济周期同步的负面影响是一种鲁棒性规律。我们对20个发达国家的银行在过去30年的国际双边风险敞口使用了一个机密数据集。丰富的面板结构使我们能够控制影响金融一体化和商业周期模式的时不变国家对因素和全球趋势。与以往的实证研究相反,我们发现金融一体化程度越高,同步产出周期越少。我们还采用两种不同的工具变量方法来确定一体化对同步的单向影响。这些指标揭示了立法-监管协调政策所预测的银行一体化成分和双边汇率制度的性质对产出同步有负面影响。
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引用次数: 52
Complexity and Financial Panics 复杂性和金融恐慌
Pub Date : 2009-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1414382
Ricardo J. Caballero, Alp Simsek
During extreme financial crises, all of a sudden, the financial world that was once rife with profit opportunities for financial institutions (banks, for short) becomes exceedingly complex. Confusion and uncertainty follow, ravaging financial markets and triggering massive flight-to-quality episodes. In this paper we propose a model of this phenomenon. In our model, banks normally collect information about their trading partners which assures them of the soundness of these relationships. However, when acute financial distress emerges in parts of the financial network, it is not enough to be informed about these partners, as it also becomes important to learn about the health of their trading partners. As conditions continue to deteriorate, banks must learn about the health of the trading partners of the trading partners of the trading partners, and so on. At some point, the cost of information gathering becomes too unmanageable for banks, uncertainty spikes, and they have no option but to withdraw from loan commitments and illiquid positions. A flight-to-quality ensues, and the financial crisis spreads.
在极端的金融危机期间,曾经充斥着金融机构(简称银行)盈利机会的金融世界突然变得极其复杂。随之而来的是混乱和不确定性,破坏了金融市场,引发了大规模的“逃向优质资产”事件。在本文中,我们提出了这种现象的一个模型。在我们的模型中,银行通常会收集有关其贸易伙伴的信息,以确保这些关系的可靠性。然而,当金融网络的某些部分出现严重的财务困难时,仅仅了解这些伙伴是不够的,因为了解其贸易伙伴的健康状况也变得很重要。随着情况继续恶化,银行必须了解贸易伙伴的贸易伙伴的贸易伙伴的健康状况,以此类推。在某种程度上,信息收集的成本对银行来说变得难以控制,不确定性激增,它们别无选择,只能退出贷款承诺和非流动性头寸。随之而来的是向优质资产的逃离,金融危机蔓延开来。
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引用次数: 94
Non-Maturing Assets and Liabilities of Banks: Valuation and Risk Measurement 银行未到期资产与负债:估值与风险计量
Pub Date : 2009-04-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1460185
Oliver Entrop, A. Krombach, Christoph Memmel, Marco Wilkens
Non-maturing banking products are important asset and liability positions of banks. Their complexity inter alia arises from a non-trivial pass-through from market to product rates which makes the valuation and risk analysis challenging for both banks and banking supervisors. Based on a large data set, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the valuation and interest rate risk measurement of these products in the risk-neutral valuation framework of Jarrow and van Deventer (1998). We apply 6 term structure models and 4 interest rate pass-through models and estimate for each of these 24 model combinations the value and interest rate risk of 13 non-maturing product categories for up to 400 German banks on an individual bank level. We find that the choice of the term structure and the pass-through model is of limited importance for the valuation of non-maturing banking products. For ranking banks according to the interest rate risk of their products the pass-through process is of specific relevance. When the level of the interest rate risk is to be estimated, additionally an advanced term structure model should be chosen.
非到期银行产品是银行重要的资产和负债头寸。它们的复杂性主要来自于从市场到产品利率的重要传递,这使得银行和银行监管机构对估值和风险分析都具有挑战性。本文基于大数据集,在Jarrow和van Deventer(1998)的风险中性估值框架下,对这些产品的估值和利率风险度量进行了全面分析。我们应用了6个期限结构模型和4个利率传递模型,并对这24个模型组合中的每一个模型组合在单个银行层面上估计了多达400家德国银行的13个未到期产品类别的价值和利率风险。我们发现期限结构和传递模型的选择对于非到期银行产品的估值意义有限。对于根据银行产品的利率风险对银行进行排名,传递过程具有特定的相关性。在对利率风险水平进行估计时,还应选择先进的期限结构模型。
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引用次数: 2
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Banking & Insurance
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