On the supply side, domestic corn production has been large for three consecutive years and the USDA now projects 2015-16 marketing year ending stocks of U.S. corn at a 10 year high of 1.837 billion bushels. While those stocks represent a modest 13.6 percent of projected marketing year consumption, they are considered ample in light of prospects for another large South American harvest and projected foreign year-ending stocks of coarse grains that are nearly 40 percent larger than stocks of three years ago. Demand for corn has been weakened by sluggish domestic and global economic growth. Demand has been further weakened by the relatively strong dollar. U.S. corn exports during the current marketing year are now projected at only 1.65 billion bushels, 200 million bushels less than projected last fall. In addition, growth in domestic corn consumption is limited by plateauing ethanol production, slow growth in livestock and poultry production, and weak livestock prices.
{"title":"Weekly Outlook: A Weather Market for Corn in 2016?","authors":"D. Good","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.232889","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.232889","url":null,"abstract":"On the supply side, domestic corn production has been large for three consecutive years and the USDA now projects 2015-16 marketing year ending stocks of U.S. corn at a 10 year high of 1.837 billion bushels. While those stocks represent a modest 13.6 percent of projected marketing year consumption, they are considered ample in light of prospects for another large South American harvest and projected foreign year-ending stocks of coarse grains that are nearly 40 percent larger than stocks of three years ago. Demand for corn has been weakened by sluggish domestic and global economic growth. Demand has been further weakened by the relatively strong dollar. U.S. corn exports during the current marketing year are now projected at only 1.65 billion bushels, 200 million bushels less than projected last fall. In addition, growth in domestic corn consumption is limited by plateauing ethanol production, slow growth in livestock and poultry production, and weak livestock prices.","PeriodicalId":329270,"journal":{"name":"farmdoc daily","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128046918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many opinions have been expressed by market participants in the weeks since a Chicago jury found Michael Coscia guilty of “spoofing” on November 3. This was the first criminal case on spoofing, and the first to be tried under the expanded definition of disruptive futures market trading practices in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Customer Protection Act. Dodd-Frank defines spoofing as “bidding or offering with the intent to cancel the bid or offer before execution.” Also see in the farmdoc daily article on May 6, 2015 for a detailed illustration of how spoofing works.
自11月3日芝加哥陪审团裁定迈克尔•科西亚(Michael Coscia)犯有“欺骗”罪以来，几周内市场参与者表达了多种观点。这是第一起关于欺诈的刑事案件，也是第一起根据《多德-弗兰克华尔街改革与客户保护法案》(Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Customer Protection Act)扩大的破坏性期货市场交易行为定义进行审判的案件。多德-弗兰克法案将欺骗定义为“意图在执行之前取消投标或要约的投标或要约”。也可以在2015年5月6日的farmdoc每日文章中看到关于如何欺骗工作的详细说明。
{"title":"Who's Spoofing Whom?","authors":"P. Peterson","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.229497","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.229497","url":null,"abstract":"Many opinions have been expressed by market participants in the weeks since a Chicago jury found Michael Coscia guilty of “spoofing” on November 3. This was the first criminal case on spoofing, and the first to be tried under the expanded definition of disruptive futures market trading practices in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Customer Protection Act. Dodd-Frank defines spoofing as “bidding or offering with the intent to cancel the bid or offer before execution.” Also see in the farmdoc daily article on May 6, 2015 for a detailed illustration of how spoofing works.","PeriodicalId":329270,"journal":{"name":"farmdoc daily","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123175719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In recent years, meal has been high priced. For the calendar years of 2012, 2013 and 2014 USDA reports that Decatur, Illinois high-protein meal has had annual averages between $440 and $480 per ton. But with a record U.S. soybean crop in the fall of 2014 and with the second largest crop in 2015, Decatur prices are expected to average about $350 per ton for 2015 and then fall further to average near $325 per ton for calendar year 2016. This would be the lowest annual meal price since 2007.
{"title":"Weekly Outlook: Lower Pork Costs Also Driven by Lower Meal Costs","authors":"C. Hurt","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.229764","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.229764","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, meal has been high priced. For the calendar years of 2012, 2013 and 2014 USDA reports that Decatur, Illinois high-protein meal has had annual averages between $440 and $480 per ton. But with a record U.S. soybean crop in the fall of 2014 and with the second largest crop in 2015, Decatur prices are expected to average about $350 per ton for 2015 and then fall further to average near $325 per ton for calendar year 2016. This would be the lowest annual meal price since 2007.","PeriodicalId":329270,"journal":{"name":"farmdoc daily","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132460589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As the clock ticks swiftly to the March 31 deadline, farmers now have at their disposal all of the information they are going to have to make the farm program decision. Recently, price forecasts have been updated and the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published their estimate for the 2014 crop year county average yields. With that in mind, this article seeks to provide a closing perspective on the ARC-CO and PLC decision for corn and soybeans by considering the magnitude of risk in forward markets and the implications for program payments.
{"title":"Decision Time on Farm Programs: A Closing Perspective on ARC-CO vs. PLC","authors":"J. Newton, Jonathan W. Coppess, G. Schnitkey","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.201348","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.201348","url":null,"abstract":"As the clock ticks swiftly to the March 31 deadline, farmers now have at their disposal all of the information they are going to have to make the farm program decision. Recently, price forecasts have been updated and the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published their estimate for the 2014 crop year county average yields. With that in mind, this article seeks to provide a closing perspective on the ARC-CO and PLC decision for corn and soybeans by considering the magnitude of risk in forward markets and the implications for program payments.","PeriodicalId":329270,"journal":{"name":"farmdoc daily","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123341960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
CME Group’s recent announcement regarding the scheduled July 2 closing of most futures trading pits has triggered a range of reactions. News stories have covered related issues such as displaced floor traders and the effect on membership or “seat” prices, but there has been little discussion about the impact of these closings on the performance of the agricultural futures markets used by farmdoc daily readers. This article examines three questions of interest to market participants.
{"title":"How Will Closing the Trading Pits Affect Market Performance","authors":"P. Peterson","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.201315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.201315","url":null,"abstract":"CME Group’s recent announcement regarding the scheduled July 2 closing of most futures trading pits has triggered a range of reactions. News stories have covered related issues such as displaced floor traders and the effect on membership or “seat” prices, but there has been little discussion about the impact of these closings on the performance of the agricultural futures markets used by farmdoc daily readers. This article examines three questions of interest to market participants.","PeriodicalId":329270,"journal":{"name":"farmdoc daily","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129531094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
It is the season for developing corn balance sheet projections for the upcoming marketing year. The 2014-15 marketing year is approaching the halfway point, the spring crop insurance price is being determined, and planting and new crop marketing decisions are being made. The USDA will update their previous early release of projections for the 2015-16 marketing year as part of their USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024 report scheduled for release on February 11. Others, such as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), have also released long term projections.
{"title":"Balance Sheet Projections for the 2015-16 Corn Marketing Year","authors":"D. Good","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.200957","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.200957","url":null,"abstract":"It is the season for developing corn balance sheet projections for the upcoming marketing year. The 2014-15 marketing year is approaching the halfway point, the spring crop insurance price is being determined, and planting and new crop marketing decisions are being made. The USDA will update their previous early release of projections for the 2015-16 marketing year as part of their USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024 report scheduled for release on February 11. Others, such as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), have also released long term projections.","PeriodicalId":329270,"journal":{"name":"farmdoc daily","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122573475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
For the 22 trading days in December 2014, the January 2015 feeder cattle futures contract had 10 days with price moves up or down of 3 cents per pound or more. And on the first trading day of January 2015, prices closed limit-up at the new 41⁄2 cent daily limit, starting out the New Year with a bang (Figure 1). In contrast, February 2015 live cattle futures have had just 2 limit days (both down) since December 1, and February 2015 hog futures have had none.
{"title":"Riding the Feeder Cattle Roller Coaster","authors":"P. Peterson","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.200867","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.200867","url":null,"abstract":"For the 22 trading days in December 2014, the January 2015 feeder cattle futures contract had 10 days with price moves up or down of 3 cents per pound or more. And on the first trading day of January 2015, prices closed limit-up at the new 41⁄2 cent daily limit, starting out the New Year with a bang (Figure 1). In contrast, February 2015 live cattle futures have had just 2 limit days (both down) since December 1, and February 2015 hog futures have had none.","PeriodicalId":329270,"journal":{"name":"farmdoc daily","volume":"33 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132285552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), the individual mandate requires farmers to obtain and maintain “minimum essential coverage” (MEC) for themselves and dependents. 1 Because of the many changes associated with the ACA, many farmers and farm businesses may be paying health insurance premiums for the first time in 2014 or may have faced increased premiums to comply with the ACA mandates. Accordingly, many farmers may find it helpful to understand some useful tax rules associated with the deduction of health insurance premiums.
{"title":"Farmers and Small Farms Can Maximize Tax Savings from Health Insurance Costs","authors":"M. Lovell","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.200202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.200202","url":null,"abstract":"Under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), the individual mandate requires farmers to obtain and maintain “minimum essential coverage” (MEC) for themselves and dependents. 1 Because of the many changes associated with the ACA, many farmers and farm businesses may be paying health insurance premiums for the first time in 2014 or may have faced increased premiums to comply with the ACA mandates. Accordingly, many farmers may find it helpful to understand some useful tax rules associated with the deduction of health insurance premiums.","PeriodicalId":329270,"journal":{"name":"farmdoc daily","volume":"139 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116694391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Harvest is on us and it’s time to give serious thought to how this year will end financially if you haven’t done so already. Coming off of a period of years of sustained profitability, the prudent manager will consider the past (without dwelling on it – you can’t change it) while thinking about the future...it’s hard to move forward in the manner you want if you only have a rear view mirror to guide you.
{"title":"Watching Your Instrument Panel","authors":"Dwight Raab","doi":"10.22004/ag.econ.200200","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.200200","url":null,"abstract":"Harvest is on us and it’s time to give serious thought to how this year will end financially if you haven’t done so already. Coming off of a period of years of sustained profitability, the prudent manager will consider the past (without dwelling on it – you can’t change it) while thinking about the future...it’s hard to move forward in the manner you want if you only have a rear view mirror to guide you.","PeriodicalId":329270,"journal":{"name":"farmdoc daily","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123772534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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