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Consumption and labour income over the life cycle in Mali: A National Transfer Accounts approach 马里整个生命周期的消费和劳动收入:国家转移账户方法
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-17 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e86738
C. Guidimé, Sadou Doumbo, L. Dramani, R. Dabou
The paper analyses the consumption and production behaviour of the Mali’s population by age using the National Transfer Account approach and household surveys and macroeconomic data. It reveals that between the ages of 28 and 66, Malians generate a surplus of 1,620 billion XOF in 2017. This surplus covers only 46% of the social demand of those under 28 and over 66. Women are in deficit over their life cycle, in other words, their level of consumption remains higher than their level of labour income, given their late entry into the labour market. While women consume as much as men over part of the life cycle, they produce 22% of labour income. The results also show that in Mali the level of material well-being measured by consumption declines with age.
本文利用国家转移账户方法、家庭调查和宏观经济数据,按年龄分析了马里人口的消费和生产行为。报告显示,在28岁至66岁之间,马里人在2017年产生了16200亿XOF的盈余。这一盈余仅占28岁以下和66岁以上人群社会需求的46%。妇女在其生命周期中处于赤字状态,换言之,由于她们进入劳动力市场较晚,她们的消费水平仍然高于劳动收入水平。虽然在生命周期的一部分时间里,女性的消费量与男性一样多,但她们产生了22%的劳动收入。研究结果还表明,在马里,以消费衡量的物质幸福水平随着年龄的增长而下降。
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引用次数: 0
Middle class’ adaptation toward innovations: perception of new technologies and openness to it 中产阶级对创新的适应:对新技术的认知和对它的开放
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-09 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e79637
A. Pishnyak, N. Khalina
In the modern world, a key skill is the ability to adapt to changing conditions, including mastering new programs, devices, technologies, ways to search for information, and sometimes new professions. With the outbreak of the pandemic – in the context of restrictive measures and transition to remote forms of employment – the problem of adaptation to innovation has become even more relevant. A quick switch to programs ensuring work in remote conditions (for example, Zoom, MSTeams) has become a necessary requirement for keeping the job for some of the employed. Residents of large cities had to switch over to digital public services, QR codes, online order of goods, etc. Obviously, not all groups of the population had a shared reaction to changes, including due to different perception of new technologies and attitudes towards them. The middle class has been traditionally regarded as a change provider in society, as a layer most open to non-groundbreaking, yet sustainable transformations and new ideas. Testing validity of this statement becomes especially interesting in light of the new reality, that has challenged the middle class (due to peculiarities of employment and lifestyle) with mastering new technologies. The purpose of this article is to analyze specific features of perception of new technologies by the middle class. Based on data of the specialized survey «Middle class: willingness to invest in human capital development», innovation openness index has been constructed comprising components of attitude, acceptance and use of innovations. On the basis of the technology acceptance model, a set of factors for perception of technical innovations has been identified, taking into account opinion of the middle class about usefulness, ease of use, reliability and safety, and elitism of innovations. In conclusion, relationship between perception of innovations and openness to them has been analyzed and determinants of openness to new technologies have been identified. The study shows that the middle class has a positive attitude towards introduction of new technologies into various areas of life, is experienced in using them and is rather interested in innovative goods and services. However, the key study conclusion is related to heterogeneity of the middle class in terms of perception of innovations and openness to them. A statement that these categories are independent stratifying features both at the level of the middle class and the entire population has been suggested to stimulate further expert discussion.
在现代世界,一项关键技能是适应不断变化的条件的能力,包括掌握新的程序、设备、技术、搜索信息的方法,有时还有新的职业。随着疫情的爆发——在限制措施和向远程就业形式过渡的背景下——适应创新的问题变得更加重要。快速切换到确保在远程条件下工作的程序(例如Zoom、MSTeams)已成为一些员工保住工作的必要要求。大城市的居民不得不转向数字公共服务、二维码、在线订购商品等。显然,并非所有人群都对变化有共同的反应,包括对新技术的不同看法和态度。传统上,中产阶级被视为社会变革的提供者,是对非开创性但可持续的变革和新思想最开放的一层。鉴于新的现实(由于就业和生活方式的特殊性),对中产阶级掌握新技术的挑战,测试这一说法的有效性变得特别有趣。本文的目的是分析中产阶级对新技术感知的具体特征。根据“中产阶级:人力资本开发投资意愿”专业调查的数据,构建了创新开放度指数,包括对创新的态度、接受和使用。在技术接受模型的基础上,考虑到中产阶级对创新的有用性、易用性、可靠性和安全性以及精英主义的看法,确定了一组感知技术创新的因素。最后,分析了对创新的感知和对创新的开放之间的关系,并确定了对新技术开放的决定因素。研究表明,中产阶级对将新技术引入生活的各个领域持积极态度,有使用新技术的经验,对创新商品和服务相当感兴趣。然而,关键的研究结论与中产阶级在创新感知和对创新开放方面的异质性有关。有人建议,这些类别在中产阶级和整个人口层面都是独立的分层特征,以促进进一步的专家讨论。
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引用次数: 0
Women and youth unemployment in Western Balkans with particular focus on Kosovo 西巴尔干妇女和青年失业问题,特别关注科索沃
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-08 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e76973
Ajtene Avdullahi, Vjosa Fejza Ademi, Besmir Salihu, Arif Krasniqi
Using the secondary data from Eurostat, World Bank, SEE Jobs Gateway Database and Kosovo Agency of Statistics labour source survey results the authors investigate female and youth unemployment as well as the level of inactivity in the labour market of Western Balkans with a particular focus on Kosovo. The results indicate that in Kosovo the unemployment rate remains the highest among Western Balkan countries. Whereas the unemployment rate of women and youth in Kosovo is even higher, presenting one of the main challenges and concerns for the country. The authors conclude by providing recommendations, which include implementing appropriate policies in order to decrease the unemployment rate, and the share of economically inactive women and youth by encouraging them to register as active job seekers or attend entrepreneurship training to gain the knowledge and skills needed to start a business.
作者利用欧盟统计局、世界银行、SEE就业门户数据库和科索沃统计局劳动力来源调查结果的二次数据,调查了西巴尔干地区女性和青年失业以及劳动力市场的不活跃程度,特别关注科索沃。结果表明,科索沃的失业率仍然是西巴尔干国家中最高的。然而,科索沃妇女和青年的失业率甚至更高,这是该国面临的主要挑战和关切之一。最后,作者提出了一些建议,其中包括实施适当的政策,通过鼓励不从事经济活动的妇女和青年登记成为积极的求职者或参加创业培训,以获得创业所需的知识和技能,从而降低失业率,降低她们在经济上不活跃的比例。
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引用次数: 2
Job change in the conditions of precarious work (on the example of the Republic of Bashkortostan permanent residents) 不稳定工作条件下的工作变化(以巴什科尔托斯坦共和国永久居民为例)
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-08 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e78162
M. Turakayev
Job and profession change are basic forms of social and labour mobility. Unstable working conditions are typical for less developed in socio-economic terms regions. The purpose of the study is to identify the degree of influence of precarious employment and other socio-demographic and economic factors on the probability of job change among Bashkortostan residents. The empirical basis of the study is a sociological survey of the Republic of Bashkortostan population. According to the results obtained, such factors as working in a private enterprise, self-employment, short work experience and the presence of a temporary employment contract increase the likelihood of job change. Income satisfaction, official wage and the absence of credit debt reduce the probability of job change. Respondents who want to improve their level of education and qualifications, as well as those who do not work within their specialty, tend to change their place of work more often. The conducted research has shown that changing a job, as a rule, does not contribute to improving the financial situation and working conditions of respondents.
工作和职业变化是社会和劳动力流动的基本形式。不稳定的工作条件是社会经济欠发达地区的典型情况。本研究的目的是确定就业不稳定以及其他社会人口和经济因素对巴什科尔托斯坦居民换工作概率的影响程度。本研究的实证基础是对巴什科尔托斯坦共和国人口的社会学调查。根据获得的结果,在私营企业工作、自营职业、短期工作经验和临时雇佣合同等因素增加了换工作的可能性。收入满意度、官方工资和没有信贷债务降低了换工作的可能性。想要提高教育水平和资格的受访者,以及那些不在专业范围内工作的受访者,往往会更频繁地更换工作地点。所进行的研究表明,换工作通常无助于改善受访者的财务状况和工作条件。
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引用次数: 0
Population mortality in the central Russia municipalities 俄罗斯中部各市人口死亡率
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-30 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e84005
T. Fattakhov, A. Mironova
The Central Federal District (CFD) is the most populous district in Russia, as of the beginning of 2021, 27% of the Russian population lived out there. However, the CFD mortality rate is characterized by a significant variation across different territories of the District. The purpose of this study is to assess the CFD territorial differentiation of mortality rate based on life expectancy with a breakdown on municipalities in 2010-2019. Life expectancy by CFD municipality and urban district was based on information about population size of the CDF municipalities and urban districts, obtained from the database on municipalities for the period 2010-2020 and individual non-personalized Rosstat (Federal State Statistics Service) data on cause-of-death mortality. A total of 326 municipalities and 63 urban districts were included in the analysis. A total of 11.5 thousand life tables were developed. The analysis shows a significant differentiation of mortality rate at the municipal level. Even though the CFD life expectancy is above the Russian average mainly due to high levels of life expectancy in Moscow, the vast majority of the CFD municipalities report a life expectancy below the Russian average. The worst situation with mortality in the CFD is developed in municipalities with a population of less than 10 thousand people. The main factor for a high gap in life expectancy across territories and gender is a high male mortality in working ages. There are significant reserves of for life expectancy growth within the CFD. These reserves are concentrated in the regional capitals with adjacent municipalities, as well as other large municipalities with a population over 100 thousand people.
中央联邦区(CFD)是俄罗斯人口最多的地区,截至2021年初,27%的俄罗斯人口居住在那里。然而,病虫害死亡率的特点是在该区不同领土之间差异很大。本研究的目的是评估2010-2019年基于预期寿命的CFD死亡率地域差异,并按城市分列。CFD城市和城市地区的预期寿命是根据从2010-2020年城市数据库获得的CFD城市和城市地区的人口规模信息以及联邦国家统计局(Rosstat)关于死因死亡率的非个性化数据计算的。共有326个直辖市和63个市区被纳入分析。共编制了11.5万份生命表。分析表明,城市一级的死亡率差别很大。尽管CFD城市的预期寿命高于俄罗斯平均水平,主要原因是莫斯科的预期寿命水平较高,但绝大多数CFD城市的预期寿命低于俄罗斯平均水平。在人口少于1万人的城市中,CFD中死亡率最高的情况最为严重。各地区和性别之间预期寿命差距大的主要因素是工作年龄男性死亡率高。在CFD中有大量的预期寿命增长储备。这些储备集中在与邻近城市的地区首府,以及人口超过10万的其他大城市。
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引用次数: 1
Historical censuses and a search for perspective farmland in the context of global climate change 历史普查和在全球气候变化背景下寻找前景农田
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-08 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e81617
Sergei V. Tkachev, N. Tkacheva
Due to global climate change, there is a gradual change in the use of farmland: some degrades in terms of traditional exploitation, while other becomes more suitable for cultivation. The study is focused on the latter, namely, on identifying those areas of the Russian Far East where climate change will have a positive impact in terms of both economic development and demographic improvement. The peculiar feature of our methodology is the use of historical data to identify areas for the most comfortable and economically feasible residence of peasants in the region. Having identified these locations and their physical and geographical characteristics, the authors have attempted to find similar conditions in areas that currently remain undeveloped, yet ready to accommodate settlers in the coming 20 years. With the beginning of the development of these territories by the Russians, it turned out that the south of the Primorskaya Oblast, the so-called South Ussuri Krai, was the most suitable area for agriculture (and for population concentration in general). Therefore, it was the settlements in this area that were taken as a sample for the analysis. The following four most important landscape characteristics of an agriculturally successful settlement have been identified – soil, average temperature for August, average precipitation for August, and elevation above sea level (up to 200 m). The authors used downscaled1 monthly climate data from the CMIP6 multimodel for GCM BCC-CSM2-MR of the SSP3-7.0 scenario for the period 2021-2040 as climate change data (this is an average, most likely scenario of global warming with due regard to partial global policy measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions). As a result, 26 still undeveloped (in terms of arable farming) and uninhabited areas were identified in the Primorye, Khabarovsk Territories and the Jewish Autonomous Region with a total area of about 1 million hectares. It is these areas that should be given a special attention when planning the region’s development; they require an additional in situ testing.
由于全球气候变化,农田的使用逐渐发生变化:一些农田在传统开采方面退化,而另一些则变得更适合耕种。这项研究的重点是后者,即确定俄罗斯远东地区气候变化将对经济发展和人口改善产生积极影响的地区。我们方法的独特之处在于利用历史数据来确定该地区农民最舒适、经济可行的居住地。在确定了这些地点及其物理和地理特征后,作者试图在目前尚未开发但准备在未来20年内容纳定居者的地区找到类似的条件。随着俄罗斯人开始开发这些领土,事实证明,普里莫尔斯卡亚州南部,即所谓的南乌苏里边疆区,是最适合农业(以及人口集中的地区)的地区。因此,这一地区的定居点被作为分析的样本。已经确定了农业上成功定居的以下四个最重要的景观特征——土壤、8月平均温度、8月的平均降水量和海拔高度(高达200米)。作者使用了CMIP6多模型中2021-2040年SSP3-7.0情景的GCM BCC-CSM2-MR的缩减1月度气候数据作为气候变化数据(这是一个平均的、最有可能的全球变暖情景,适当考虑到减少温室气体排放的部分全球政策措施)。因此,在普里莫耶、哈巴罗夫斯克地区和犹太自治区发现了26个尚未开发(就耕地而言)和无人居住的地区,总面积约为100万公顷。在规划该区域的发展时,应该特别注意这些领域;它们需要额外的原位测试。
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引用次数: 0
First names given in France, 1800–2019: a window into the process of individualization 1800年至2019年法国的名字:了解个性化过程的窗口
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-08 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e81580
Jean-François Mignot
What can first names tell us about populations of the past, as well as our present day? This article uses the number and distribution of first names given to newborns in France from 1800 to 2019 as an indicator of the degree of individualization, i.e. parents’ willingness to give their child a unique identity and to make others regard it as unique. Newborns receive more distinct names, from fewer than 2,000 names per year in the 1900s, compared to more than 13,000 per year since 2010. Fewer newborns are given one of the Top-10 most frequently given names of the decade, from 65% of newborns in 1810–1819 to 10% in 2010–2019. Fashion for first names has been also changing more quickly since the early 20th century, i.e., the most popular names currently remain in fashion for a shorter period of time. Overall, in France as elsewhere in the West and in the world, more and more parents are choosing for their children – particularly for their daughters – relatively new, distinctive and individualizing names. The analysis of first names can thus help social scientists, including historical demographers, measure the process of individualization and compare it across countries – a task that has been notoriously difficult to this day.
名字能告诉我们过去和现在的人口是什么?本文使用1800年至2019年法国新生儿名字的数量和分布作为个性化程度的指标,即父母愿意给孩子一个独特的身份,并让其他人认为它是独特的。新生儿的名字更为独特,从20世纪的每年不到2000个,到2010年的每年超过13000个。在十年中最常被命名的前十名中,新生儿数量较少,从1810年至1819年的65%上升到2010年至2019年的10%。自20世纪初以来,名字的流行也发生了更快的变化,即目前最流行的名字在流行的时间更短。总的来说,在法国,与西方和世界其他地方一样,越来越多的父母为孩子——尤其是女儿——选择相对新颖、独特和个性化的名字。因此,对名字的分析可以帮助包括历史人口学家在内的社会科学家衡量个性化的过程,并在各国之间进行比较——这项任务迄今为止一直是出了名的困难。
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引用次数: 4
Seasonal variation in mortality in the city of Barnaul based on the Pokrovsky parish registers (1877-1897) 基于波克罗夫斯基教区登记的巴尔纳尔市死亡率的季节性变化(1877-1897)
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-08 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e81021
M. Vinnik
The paper analyzes seasonal fluctuations in mortality among the parish population on the basis of parish registers of the Pokrovsky parish in Barnaul in the last third of the XIX century. The study results show that infant mortality in Barnaul in 1877-1897 was still strongly dependable upon the time of year. Summer and winter peaks suggest a continued role of exogenous causes of death. Infant mortality rates in summer were three times higher than the annual average. The mortality peak is mainly registered in June. Starting from the age of 10-14, the seasonal factor passes from the picture, and deaths are distributed more evenly over the seasons. The analysis of seasonal fluctuations in mortality by cause of death showed that in children, summer peaks are associated with infectious diseases, while winter peaks are due to cold-related diseases. Seasonal fluctuations in mortality by social class are not fundamentally different. It can be assumed that the demographic transition was still in its early stages and yet to be developed even in the upper classes, which had always been at the forefront of demographic modernization. The obtained results and conclusions about seasonal fluctuations in infant and child mortality are consistent with pre-revolutionary and modern research. The existing differences in seasonal fluctuations in infant mortality exemplified by different cities and settlements in Russia with peaks either in July or August, may indicate a wide climatic diversity and socio-economic differences between regions of the country, as well as differences in calculation methods.
本文以十九世纪末巴瑙尔波克罗夫斯基教区的教区登记为基础,分析了教区人口死亡率的季节性波动。研究结果表明,1877-1897年巴瑙尔的婴儿死亡率仍然非常可靠。夏季和冬季的高峰表明了外源性死亡原因的持续作用。夏季的婴儿死亡率是年平均水平的三倍。死亡率高峰主要出现在6月份。从10-14岁开始,季节因素从画面中消失,死亡在各个季节的分布更加均匀。按死因对死亡率季节波动的分析表明,在儿童中,夏季高峰与传染病有关,而冬季高峰与感冒有关。按社会阶层划分的死亡率季节性波动没有根本区别。可以假设,人口结构转型仍处于早期阶段,甚至在一直处于人口现代化前沿的上层阶级中也有待发展。所获得的关于婴儿和儿童死亡率季节性波动的结果和结论与革命前和现代研究一致。俄罗斯不同城市和定居点的婴儿死亡率季节性波动存在差异,峰值出现在7月或8月,这可能表明该国各地区之间存在广泛的气候多样性和社会经济差异,以及计算方法的差异。
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引用次数: 0
Male fertility in the 19th century: the case of the Moscow merchant class 19世纪的男性生育能力:以莫斯科商人阶层为例
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-08 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e91138
Irina A. Troitskaya, A. Avdeev
The article presents estimates of male fertility among the Moscow merchants in 1850-1858: it assesses the impact of specific marital behavior of male merchants on fertility rates, defines the limits of the male reproductive age, and considers the contribution of infant and child mortality to the formation of family structure. Skazki (household lists) of the 10th revision of the Moscow merchants served the data source. The analysis showed that late marriage with low definitive celibacy of the Moscow male merchants and a significant age difference between spouses is combined with relatively high rates of male fertility at the age of over 50. The total fertility rate for the period under study exceeds five children per man.
本文对1850-1858年莫斯科商人的男性生育率进行了估计:评估了男性商人的特定婚姻行为对生育率的影响,定义了男性生育年龄的限制,并考虑了婴儿和儿童死亡率对家庭结构形成的贡献。Skazki(户口表)第十次修订为莫斯科商人服务的数据来源。分析表明,莫斯科男性商人的晚婚、确定独身率低以及配偶之间的显著年龄差异,与50岁以上男性生育率相对较高相结合。本研究所述期间的总生育率超过了每人五个孩子。
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引用次数: 0
Development of dacha settlements in the Moscow region in the second half of the 19th – first half of the 20th century 19世纪下半叶至20世纪上半叶莫斯科地区别墅住区的发展
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-02 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e82385
A. Rusanov
One of the results of the dacha development of a territory is the emergence of specific types of settlements – dacha settlements. Their role in today’s national economic complex of the Moscow region is different, largely due to peculiarities of formation at different stages of socio-economic development. In this context, the pre-war decades are interesting as a period of adaptation of the pre-revolutionary dacha market trends to meet needs of the new planned economy, however, the analysis is complicated by inconsistency of a lot of statistical data. Data supplementary with reference and literary sources makes it possible to show that the pre–war dacha settlements were formed in the following two ways originated after reforming in1861: «the urban type» – through the processes of urbanization occurring in rural settlements close to the city limits, and «the developer type» – through the construction of dacha settlements on specially allocated lands. This led to the formation of a network of dacha settlements in the pre-war Moscow region, which became local centers of economic development, capable of meeting the macroeconomic needs in a mobile way, and strengthening prerequisites for the post-war development of the dacha settlements.
一个地区的乡间别墅发展的结果之一是出现了特定类型的定居点-乡间别墅定居点。它们在今天莫斯科地区的国家经济综合体中的作用是不同的,主要是由于在社会经济发展的不同阶段形成的特点。在这种背景下,战前的几十年是一个有趣的时期,因为革命前的别墅市场趋势适应了新的计划经济的需要,然而,由于大量统计数据的不一致,分析变得复杂。通过参考文献和文献资料的补充资料,可以表明战前的乡间别墅在1861年改革后以以下两种方式形成:“城市类型”——通过在靠近城市边界的农村定居点进行城市化进程,以及“开发商类型”——通过在专门分配的土地上建造乡间别墅。这导致战前莫斯科地区形成了一个别墅住区网络,成为当地经济发展的中心,能够以流动的方式满足宏观经济需求,并为别墅住区的战后发展奠定了先决条件。
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引用次数: 0
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Naselenie i ekonomika
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