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Fertility-Household Credit Burden Nexus at the Present Stage 现阶段生育家庭信贷负担的关系
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e76066
I. Gurov, E. Kulikova
The article examines the relationship between fertility and household credit burden using data for 79 countries for the period from 1990 to 2019. The authors identify 9 patterns describing the mutual influence of fertility and household debt burden. The analysis of patterns shows that the presence of a significant positive impact of households’ mortgage debt burden on fertility in future periods may indicate both a direct causal relationship between the indicators and the adoption of conditional decisions on pregnancy planning prior to obtaining mortgage loans to improve housing conditions. The same is true for households’consumer credit burden, as well as for quantitative estimates of the impact of fertility growth on households’ debt burden in subsequent periods. The article shows that in developed and developing countries, the growth of the total fertility rate is positively associated with the subsequent dynamics of mortgage and consumer loans in relation to GDP. In developed countries, the growth of mortgage and consumer loans is positively associated with the subsequent fertility dynamics. In developing countries, an increase in mortgage loans is positively but insignificantly correlated with fertility in the following years, while an increase in consumer loans leads to an increase in fertility in the short term, and to its decrease in subsequent years. The results indicate that success in demographic policy aimed at increasing fertility will be accompanied by the growth of households’debt burden, and therefore in subsequent periods households will be forced to pay interest and repay the principal debt, which will reduce families’ ability to finance children’s education. In this regard, state programmes that provide free education and development of children should be conducted in parallel with the implementation of demographic policy aimed at increasing fertility.
本文利用1990年至2019年79个国家的数据,研究了生育率与家庭信贷负担之间的关系。作者确定了9种模式来描述生育率和家庭债务负担的相互影响。对模式的分析表明,家庭抵押债务负担对未来时期生育率的显著积极影响可能表明,这些指标与在获得抵押贷款以改善住房条件之前就怀孕计划采取有条件决定之间存在直接因果关系。家庭的消费信贷负担也是如此,对生育率增长对随后时期家庭债务负担影响的定量估计也是如此。文章表明,在发达国家和发展中国家,总生育率的增长与抵押贷款和消费贷款相对于GDP的后续动态呈正相关。在发达国家,抵押贷款和消费贷款的增长与随后的生育率动态呈正相关。在发展中国家,抵押贷款的增加与随后几年的生育率呈正但不显著相关,而消费贷款的增加导致生育率在短期内增加,并在随后几年下降。结果表明,旨在提高生育率的人口政策的成功将伴随着家庭债务负担的增加,因此在随后的时期,家庭将被迫支付利息和偿还主要债务,这将降低家庭资助子女教育的能力。在这方面,提供免费教育和儿童发展的国家方案应与执行旨在提高生育率的人口政策同时进行。
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引用次数: 0
Pregnancy, childbirth and health of female labour migrants from Central Asia in Russia 俄罗斯中亚移徙女工的怀孕、分娩和健康
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e73815
D. Poletaev
The research note contains an analysis of data on health, pregnancy, and childbirth experience among female labour migrants arriving in Russia from Central Asia. Empirically, the study bases on the data of three surveys conducted in 2015, 2017, and 2020. In total, the surveys contain information on 2,028 migrants from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan living in Russia. The analysis proves that with gradual feminization of labour migration from Central Asia, pregnancy and childbirth in a significant part of labour migrants take place in risky living conditions; the existing system of maternal health protection for migrants in Russia needs modernization. Compared to earlier studies on this topic, the survey data showed a higher proportion of female migrants who had got pregnant and gave birth in Russia along with a lower proportion of migrants who terminated pregnancy. These differences may indicate a change in the reproductive behaviour of women who come to work in Russia from the countries of Central Asia. The presented note shows the need for in-depth studies of the reproductive behaviour of labour migrants in Russia, as well as the development of national migration statistics, which should become gender sensitive.
该研究报告分析了从中亚抵达俄罗斯的女性劳动力移民的健康、怀孕和分娩经历数据。根据经验,该研究基于2015年、2017年和2020年进行的三次调查的数据。总的来说,这些调查包含了2028名居住在俄罗斯的塔吉克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦移民的信息。分析证明,随着来自中亚的劳动力移民逐渐女性化,很大一部分劳动力移民在危险的生活条件下怀孕和分娩;俄罗斯现有的移民孕产妇健康保护体系需要现代化。与早期关于这一主题的研究相比,调查数据显示,在俄罗斯怀孕和分娩的女性移民比例较高,终止妊娠的移民比例较低。这些差异可能表明,从中亚国家来俄罗斯工作的妇女的生殖行为发生了变化。所提交的说明表明,有必要深入研究俄罗斯劳工移民的生殖行为,并制定国家移民统计数据,这些数据应对性别问题敏感。
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引用次数: 0
Socio-demographic determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Russia in the context of mandatory vaccination of employees 在俄罗斯雇员强制接种疫苗的背景下,影响COVID-19疫苗接种的社会人口因素
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-27 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e77832
T. Maleva, M. Kartseva, Sophia V. Korzhuk
The paper offers an analysis of socio-demographic factors determining uptake of COVID-19 vaccine in Russia in 2021. The study focuses in particular on the role of mandatory vaccination of workers in certain sectors of the economy. The study is empirically based on three rounds of a nationally representative telephone survey, conducted in February–October 2021, which investigated the situation and behaviour of a cross section of the Russian adult population in the context of the spread of coronavirus. The paper shows that the key factors behind vaccine uptake are age and education of the individual. People in older age groups and people with higher education are most inclined towards vaccination. By contrast, young people and people with low levels of education are least likely to be vaccinated. Other significant determinants of vaccination are experience of COVID-19 infection (self or a household member) and elderly or chronically ill members of the household. Among the employed, the economic sector where they work is an important determinant: workers in education, health care, and state and municipal administration are more likely to be vaccinated. The introduction of mandatory vaccination at a firm/organization with sanctions for unvaccinated employees has significant positive effect: the likelihood of an employee being vaccinated increases by 10 percentage points. The effect of mandatory vaccination is slightly greater for men than for women.
本文分析了决定2021年俄罗斯接种新冠肺炎疫苗的社会形态因素。这项研究特别关注某些经济部门工人强制接种疫苗的作用。该研究基于2021年2月至10月进行的三轮具有全国代表性的电话调查,该调查调查调查了俄罗斯成年人口在冠状病毒传播背景下的状况和行为。论文表明,接种疫苗的关键因素是个人的年龄和教育程度。老年人和受过高等教育的人最倾向于接种疫苗。相比之下,年轻人和低教育水平的人接种疫苗的可能性最小。接种疫苗的其他重要决定因素是新冠肺炎感染经历(本人或家庭成员)以及家庭中的老年人或慢性病患者。在就业者中,他们工作的经济部门是一个重要的决定因素:教育、医疗保健、州和市政府的工作人员更有可能接种疫苗。在对未接种疫苗的员工实施制裁的公司/组织中,强制接种疫苗具有显著的积极影响:员工接种疫苗的可能性增加了10个百分点。强制接种疫苗对男性的影响略大于对女性的影响。
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引用次数: 12
Database of digital media publications on maternal (family) capital in Russia in 2006–2019 2006-2019年俄罗斯孕产妇(家庭)资本数字媒体出版物数据库
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-08 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e78723
I. Kalabikhina, Herman Klimenko, E. Banin, Ekaterina K. Vorobyeva, Anna D. Lameeva
The database contains data from publications of digital Russian-language media registered in the Russian Federation on the topic of maternity capital published in the period from May 10, 2006 to June 30, 2019. The database includes general data on publications on maternity capital in .csv formats (UTF-8 encoding). Full texts of publications are presented in .xml format. A specialized request was generated for the aggregator of publications of Russian-language digital mass media public.ru. In total, the database consists of 457,888 publications of 7,665 publishing houses from 1,251 settlements located in 85 regions of Russia. The database includes information about the date and type of publication, publisher, place of publication (municipality), texts about maternity capital, and numbers of unique positive, negative, and neutral words and phrases according to the RuSentiLex2017 dictionary, as well as full texts of publications.
该数据库包含2006年5月10日至2019年6月30日期间在俄罗斯联邦注册的数字俄语媒体发表的关于母性资本主题的出版物的数据。该数据库包括.csv格式(UTF-8编码)的关于母性资本出版物的一般数据。出版物全文以.xml格式呈现。对俄语数字大众传播媒介public.ru的出版物聚合器提出了一项专门要求。该数据库总共包括俄罗斯85个地区1,251个定居点的7,665家出版社的457,888种出版物。该数据库包括出版日期和类型、出版商、出版地点(直辖市)、关于母性资本的文本,以及根据RuSentiLex2017词典提供的独特的肯定、否定和中性单词和短语的数量,以及出版物的全文。
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引用次数: 0
Diagnostic and age composition of excess mortality associated with the New Year holidays in Russia 与俄罗斯新年假期相关的超额死亡率的诊断和年龄构成
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-08 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e72550
A. Nemtsov, T. Fattakhov
Statistics show that in many countries of the world holidays are associated with an increase in morbidity and mortality; this is especially pronounced during the New Year and Christmas period. This article presents an estimate of the excess number of deaths in Russia during the January holidays in 2011–2019 by main classes of causes of death and by age groups. The study relies on the Rosstat dataset of 16.83 million individual non-personalized death records referring to 2011–2019. The authors of the paper estimate excess mortality for each cause and age group as the difference between actually observed mortality and the LOWESS moving average calculated for non-holiday period, extrapolated to the holidays. The calculations showed that the period of excess mortality lasted from January 1 to January 22 with a maximum on January 1. Over 22 days, excess mortality in 2011–2019 amounted to 89.0 thousand cases or 8.4% in relation to mortality on non-holidays; excess mortality on January 1 amounted to 11.4 thousand cases. In contrast to mortality from diseases of the circulatory, respiratory, and digestive systems, the contribution of which to excess mortality was proportional to their prevalence on non-holidays, proportion of excess mortality from external causes almost doubled (23.6% versus 12.7 % on weekdays). January 1 saw the highest excess mortality from external causes, including that of alcohol poisoning, homicide, and suicide, in all age groups; on January 2 the highest increase was observed in mortality from diseases of the circulatory system; on January 9 and 10 — from the pathologies of the respiratory and digestive systems. January holidays in Russia are associated with significant excess mortality, primarily as a result of the abuse of strong alcoholic beverages. Informing the population about the fatal consequences of such a consumption regime and a decrease in the availability of strong alcohol, the maximum sales of which falls on December, can reduce the damage during the January holidays.
统计数据显示,在世界许多国家,假期与发病率和死亡率的增加有关;这在新年和圣诞节期间尤为明显。本文按主要死因类别和年龄组对俄罗斯2011-2019年1月假期期间的超额死亡人数进行了估计。该研究依赖于Rosstat数据集,该数据集包含1683万份涉及2011-2019年的个人非个性化死亡记录。该论文的作者估计,每种原因和年龄组的超额死亡率是实际观察到的死亡率与非假期计算的LOWESS移动平均值之间的差异,外推到假期。计算结果显示,超额死亡率从1月1日持续到1月22日,最高值在1月1号。在22天的时间里,2011-2019年的超额死亡率达到89.0万例,与非假日死亡率相比为8.4%;1月1日的超额死亡率达到114000例。循环系统、呼吸系统和消化系统疾病导致的死亡率与非节假日的患病率成正比,而外部原因导致的超额死亡率几乎翻了一番(23.6%对工作日的12.7%)。1月1日,在所有年龄组中,外部原因导致的超额死亡率最高,包括酒精中毒、凶杀和自杀;1月2日,循环系统疾病导致的死亡率增幅最高;1月9日和10日,来自呼吸和消化系统的病理。俄罗斯的一月假期与严重的超额死亡率有关,主要是由于滥用烈性酒精饮料。向民众通报这种消费制度的致命后果,以及烈性酒供应量的减少(12月是烈性酒的最高销量),可以减少1月假期的损失。
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引用次数: 1
Avoidable mortality from circulatory system diseases in Moldova 摩尔多瓦循环系统疾病可避免的死亡率
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e65218
V. Ștîrba
Mortality from avoidable circulatory system diseases causes one of the major losses in life expectancy, especially in males and population of working ages. The main contributors are the deaths caused by ischaemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and hypertensive diseases. This article analyses the trends in avoidable mortality caused by diseases of the circulatory system and estimates the possible increases in life expectancy due to the elimination of these causes of death. In this regard, the author uses methods of standardization, mortality decomposition and cause-elimination model. The study shows a decline in avoidable mortality from circulatory system diseases during the analyzed period, especially for earlier ages. At the same time, there is a significant differentiation in mortality dynamics depending on sex. In 2016–2018, avoiding these deaths could assure an increase in life expectancy by 3.8 years in males and 2.8 years in females. This possible increase in life expectancy could be partially achieved by improving the quality of the health care system and introducing policies and programs aimed at improving the health of the population. Moreover, programs aimed at preventing diseases of the circulatory system might influence on mortality diminution from other non-communicable diseases and external causes of death.
可避免的循环系统疾病造成的死亡是预期寿命的主要损失之一,特别是在男性和工作年龄人口中。造成死亡的主要原因是缺血性心脏病、脑血管疾病和高血压。本文分析了由循环系统疾病引起的可避免死亡率的趋势,并估计了由于消除这些死亡原因而可能增加的预期寿命。在这方面,作者采用了标准化、死亡率分解和原因消除模型的方法。该研究显示,在分析期间,循环系统疾病的可避免死亡率有所下降,尤其是在较早的年龄。与此同时,死亡率动态也因性别而有显著差异。在2016-2018年期间,避免这些死亡可以确保男性预期寿命增加3.8年,女性预期寿命增加2.8年。预期寿命的增加可以部分地通过提高卫生保健系统的质量和引入旨在改善人口健康的政策和方案来实现。此外,旨在预防循环系统疾病的方案可能对减少其他非传染性疾病和外部死亡原因造成的死亡率产生影响。
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引用次数: 0
Institutional and regional features of organized second home development in Russia 俄罗斯有组织的第二家园发展的制度和地域特征
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e70197
A. Rusanov
The article studies the features of second home land development in Russia. Basing on the data of the All-Russian agricultural censuses, the author shows that organized second home development is represented by two quantitatively and qualitatively different processes, namely: development of residential dachas, observed in horticultural non-profit partnerships (HNP) with dominant residential, recreational and agricultural functions, and development of agricultural dachas (vegetable gardens), observed in gardening non-profit partnerships (GNP), performing only an agricultural function. Despite regional differentiation, the general developmental trend might be described as gradual strengthening of the recreational and residential functions of the HNPs, which is facilitated by institutional regulation. The absolute and relative scales of the GNPs extension are gradually decreasing, but due to the unique localization and long-term traditions of subsidiary gardening, they remain relevant, especially during periods of crisis. Therefore, in some regions, their share in the total land of garden and dacha formations substantially exceeds the national average. The desire of the owners to supplement the functions of the GNPs with a permit for the construction of houses leads to the transfer of gardening lands to other categories, but in the absence of such an opportunity, Russian GNPs remain an analogue of foreign «allotment gardens», where one cannot spend the night, but can do gardening.
本文研究了俄罗斯第二家园开发的特点。基于全俄农业人口普查数据,作者表明,有组织的第二家园发展在数量和质量上表现为两个不同的过程,即:以居住、娱乐和农业为主要功能的园艺非营利性合作伙伴关系(HNP)中住宅别墅的发展,以及仅具有农业功能的园艺非营利性合作伙伴关系(GNP)中农业别墅(菜园)的发展。尽管有区域差异,总的发展趋势可以描述为海地国家公园的娱乐和居住功能逐渐加强,这是由体制管制促进的。国民生产总值扩展的绝对规模和相对规模逐渐减少,但由于独特的地方性和长期的辅助园艺传统,它们仍然具有相关性,特别是在危机时期。因此,在一些地区,它们占园林和别墅总面积的比例大大超过了全国平均水平。业主希望通过建造房屋的许可证来补充GNPs的功能,导致园艺用地转移到其他类别,但在没有这样的机会的情况下,俄罗斯GNPs仍然是外国“分配花园”的类似物,在那里人们不能过夜,但可以做园艺。
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引用次数: 1
Contraceptive method mix in the context of family planning programmes in developing countries 发展中国家计划生育方案中的避孕方法组合
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e70669
Lilia V. Boglaeva
The paper examines the formation of the contraceptive method mix within the framework of family planning programmes in developing countries, taking into account the influence of socio-demographic, economic, and behavioural factors. The study has shown that the impact of family planning programmes on changes in the method mix is ambiguous and depends on the time of the start of the programme, the region of the country, the level of medical service development, and other factors. The paper also analyzes the correlation between the peculiarities of the method mix in a country and abolishment of particular methods. The author reveals that in developing countries the poorest users of young reproductive age are the most vulnerable and prone to contraception discontinuation. It is these population groups that experience the most dissatisfaction with family planning.
考虑到社会人口、经济和行为因素的影响,该文件审查了发展中国家计划生育方案框架内避孕方法组合的形成情况。研究表明,计划生育方案对方法组合变化的影响是模糊的,取决于方案开始的时间、国家的地区、医疗服务发展水平和其他因素。文章还分析了一个国家方法组合的特点与特定方法的废除之间的相关性。作者透露,在发展中国家,最贫穷的年轻育龄使用者最容易受到影响,也最容易停止避孕。正是这些人口群体对计划生育最为不满。
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引用次数: 4
Some aspects of alcohol-related mortality in Russia: Commentary on the article by P. Kuznetsova published in issue 4 (3) / 2020 of the Population and Economics Journal 俄罗斯与酒精有关的死亡率的某些方面:对P.库兹涅佐娃在《人口与经济杂志》2020年第4(3)期上发表的文章的评论
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e69636
Sergei V. Jargin
The aim of this communication is to comment on certain statements and conclusions presented in the paper on alcohol-related mortality by P.O. Kuznetsova from the medical viewpoint, summarizing and updating at the same time the preceding papers. The author refers to some evidence showing positive tendencies in Russia, namely, a decline in both the heavy binge drinking and total alcohol consumption, and claims that exaggerating the alcohol consumption problem indirectly shifts the responsibility for the relatively short life expectancy onto the excessive alcohol consumption, thus camouflaging shortcomings of the healthcare and public assistance.
本通信的目的是从医学角度对P.O.库兹涅佐娃在关于酒精相关死亡率的论文中提出的某些陈述和结论发表评论,同时总结和更新先前的论文。作者提到了一些在俄罗斯显示出积极趋势的证据,即酗酒和总饮酒量都有所下降,并声称夸大饮酒问题间接地将预期寿命相对较短的责任转移到了过度饮酒上,从而掩盖了医疗保健和公共援助的不足。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of economic and demographic events in the biography of Russians on the level of their life satisfaction 俄罗斯人传记中的经济和人口事件对他们生活满意度的影响
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e72298
O. Kuznetsova
The article examines anticipation and adaptation effects in relation to life satisfaction in case of economic (related to labour market) and demographic events in people’s lives. The author estimates how individuals feel in the vicinity of significant life events and tracks the asymmetry of results for women and men. The calculations are based on panel data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for the period 2004–2019. Using pooled regression and the difference-in-differences approach, the author tests the hypothesis that men are more sensitive to economic events while women are more sensitive to demographic ones. The results indicate that there is no consistent asymmetry of effects for men and women. On average, citizens of Russia tend to anticipate events that will happen to them in the next three years. Generally, Russians do not adapt to new conditions after economic events, however, this does not apply to individual demographic shocks.
本文考察了在人们生活中发生经济(与劳动力市场有关)和人口事件的情况下,预期和适应效应与生活满意度的关系。作者估计了个人在重大生活事件附近的感受,并跟踪了女性和男性结果的不对称性。这些计算基于俄罗斯纵向监测调查2004-2009年期间的面板数据。作者使用集合回归和差异中的差异方法,检验了男性对经济事件更敏感,而女性对人口事件更敏感的假设。结果表明,对男性和女性的影响不存在一致的不对称性。平均而言,俄罗斯公民倾向于预测未来三年将发生在他们身上的事件。一般来说,俄罗斯人不适应经济事件后的新条件,然而,这不适用于个人人口冲击。
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引用次数: 0
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