Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.2991/jat.k.211206.001
H. Fofack, Andrew Mold
The agreement adopted by 54 African leaders in March 2018 establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been attracting a great deal of attention in academic and policy circles, as well as within the international development community.1 The growing interest in the AfCFTA partly reflects the fact that the African continent is boldly bucking a global trend toward greater protectionism (see, inter alia, Gunnella and Quaglietti, 2019; Fajgelbaum et al., 2020), but also because it represents a break with the past on a continent where market fragmentation has historically been seen as a major constraint to growth and economic development (Collier and Venables, 2008; Fofack, 2018; IMF, 2019) and offers the opportunity to accelerate the transformation of African economies to enhance their integration into the global economy.
{"title":"Special Issue on ‘The AfCFTA and African Trade’","authors":"H. Fofack, Andrew Mold","doi":"10.2991/jat.k.211206.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jat.k.211206.001","url":null,"abstract":"The agreement adopted by 54 African leaders in March 2018 establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been attracting a great deal of attention in academic and policy circles, as well as within the international development community.1 The growing interest in the AfCFTA partly reflects the fact that the African continent is boldly bucking a global trend toward greater protectionism (see, inter alia, Gunnella and Quaglietti, 2019; Fajgelbaum et al., 2020), but also because it represents a break with the past on a continent where market fragmentation has historically been seen as a major constraint to growth and economic development (Collier and Venables, 2008; Fofack, 2018; IMF, 2019) and offers the opportunity to accelerate the transformation of African economies to enhance their integration into the global economy.","PeriodicalId":33808,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Trade","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69880150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.2991/jat.k.201126.001
Yong He
African economies are highly dependent on trade because Africa is, in terms of the ratio of trade volume to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), one of the world’s most open regions, just behind East Asia (Broadman, 2007). According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2002), between 1950 and 2000, the share of Africa’s GDP in PPP globally fell by a third, that of exports by two-thirds, and that of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from 6% to 1%. The downward trend in Africa’s share in world GDP and exports can be explained largely by the changes in the terms of trade. Since the mid-1990s, however, most African countries have realized an average growth rate of more than 4%. This growth rose steadily between 2000 and 2009. In 2007, it was at a record high of 5.5% (OECD, 2008). One explanation is the growing trade linkage with some emerging industrial regions, particularly China (Alden et al., 2008; Asche and Schuller, 2008; Manji and Marks, 2007). Most economists regard this linkage as a major opportunity for African countries. This view has been expressed, for example, in two publications by the World Bank and the OECD (Broadman, 2007; Goldstein et al., 2006).
非洲经济高度依赖贸易，因为就贸易额与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率而言，非洲是世界上最开放的地区之一，仅次于东亚(Broadman, 2007)。根据经济合作与发展组织(OECD, 2002)的数据，1950年至2000年间，非洲GDP占全球购买力平价的比重下降了三分之一，出口比重下降了三分之二，外国直接投资(FDI)比重从6%降至1%。非洲在世界国内生产总值和出口中所占份额的下降趋势在很大程度上可以用贸易条件的变化来解释。然而，自20世纪90年代中期以来，大多数非洲国家实现了4%以上的平均增长率。这一增长在2000年至2009年间稳步上升。2007年，它达到了5.5%的历史新高(经合组织，2008年)。一种解释是与一些新兴工业地区，特别是中国的贸易联系日益紧密(Alden et al.， 2008;Asche and Schuller, 2008;Manji和Marks, 2007)。大多数经济学家认为，这种联系对非洲国家来说是一个重大机遇。例如，世界银行和经合组织的两份出版物就表达了这一观点(Broadman, 2007;Goldstein et al.， 2006)。
{"title":"The Impact of Imports from China on African Textile Exports","authors":"Yong He","doi":"10.2991/jat.k.201126.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jat.k.201126.001","url":null,"abstract":"African economies are highly dependent on trade because Africa is, in terms of the ratio of trade volume to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), one of the world’s most open regions, just behind East Asia (Broadman, 2007). According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2002), between 1950 and 2000, the share of Africa’s GDP in PPP globally fell by a third, that of exports by two-thirds, and that of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from 6% to 1%. The downward trend in Africa’s share in world GDP and exports can be explained largely by the changes in the terms of trade. Since the mid-1990s, however, most African countries have realized an average growth rate of more than 4%. This growth rose steadily between 2000 and 2009. In 2007, it was at a record high of 5.5% (OECD, 2008). One explanation is the growing trade linkage with some emerging industrial regions, particularly China (Alden et al., 2008; Asche and Schuller, 2008; Manji and Marks, 2007). Most economists regard this linkage as a major opportunity for African countries. This view has been expressed, for example, in two publications by the World Bank and the OECD (Broadman, 2007; Goldstein et al., 2006).","PeriodicalId":33808,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Trade","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48201416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.2991/jat.k.201224.001
J. Gourdon, Dzmitry Kniahin, J. Melo, M. Mimouni
{"title":"Rules of Origin across African Regional Trading Agreements: A Landscape with Measures to Address Challenges at Harmonization☆","authors":"J. Gourdon, Dzmitry Kniahin, J. Melo, M. Mimouni","doi":"10.2991/jat.k.201224.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jat.k.201224.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":33808,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Trade","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44776057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.2991/jat.k.201205.001
Landry Signé, Payce Madden
Rules of origin are used to determine a product’s eligibility for preferential tariffs under a free trade agreement and have major implications for the extent of trade under the agreement and the growth of regional value chains. Firms choose to comply with rules of origin when the benefits of trading under an agreement, determined primarily by the preference margin, are higher than the costs of complying with rules of origin, determined by the costs of sourcing products from within the free trade area and from the costs of certifying that products comply with rules of origin. In addition, as there is a fixed cost component of complying with rules of origin, compliance is more likely when trade volumes are large. Negotiations for rules of origin under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) are complicated by the diverse rules of origins used in Africa’s many regional economic communities. We analyze preference margins, the availability of intermediate inputs, trade volumes
{"title":"Considerations for Rules of Origin under the African Continental Free Trade Area","authors":"Landry Signé, Payce Madden","doi":"10.2991/jat.k.201205.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jat.k.201205.001","url":null,"abstract":"Rules of origin are used to determine a product’s eligibility for preferential tariffs under a free trade agreement and have major implications for the extent of trade under the agreement and the growth of regional value chains. Firms choose to comply with rules of origin when the benefits of trading under an agreement, determined primarily by the preference margin, are higher than the costs of complying with rules of origin, determined by the costs of sourcing products from within the free trade area and from the costs of certifying that products comply with rules of origin. In addition, as there is a fixed cost component of complying with rules of origin, compliance is more likely when trade volumes are large. Negotiations for rules of origin under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) are complicated by the diverse rules of origins used in Africa’s many regional economic communities. We analyze preference margins, the availability of intermediate inputs, trade volumes","PeriodicalId":33808,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Trade","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45933659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-01DOI: 10.2991/jat.k.200724.001
A. Seck, F. A. Fall, K. Aidara
The quest for regional integration has always been a key component for economic growth and development strategies in Africa. The expansion of goods markets as a result of the removal of trade barriers has the potential to overcome the many constraints associated with small national markets and provide opportunities for technology transfers, increased productivity, income generation, as well as job creation.
{"title":"Regional Integration and Growth Spillovers: Is Africa an Economic Space?","authors":"A. Seck, F. A. Fall, K. Aidara","doi":"10.2991/jat.k.200724.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jat.k.200724.001","url":null,"abstract":"The quest for regional integration has always been a key component for economic growth and development strategies in Africa. The expansion of goods markets as a result of the removal of trade barriers has the potential to overcome the many constraints associated with small national markets and provide opportunities for technology transfers, increased productivity, income generation, as well as job creation.","PeriodicalId":33808,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Trade","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42680088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-01DOI: 10.2991/jat.k.200530.001
Michael Olabisi, W. Sawyer
{"title":"The Demand for Imports and Exports in Africa: A Survey","authors":"Michael Olabisi, W. Sawyer","doi":"10.2991/jat.k.200530.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jat.k.200530.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":33808,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Trade","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42091829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.2991/jat.k.201217.001
Nada Hazem, Chahir Zaki
{"title":"Mind the Measure: On the Effects of Antidumping Investigations in Egypt","authors":"Nada Hazem, Chahir Zaki","doi":"10.2991/jat.k.201217.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jat.k.201217.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":33808,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Trade","volume":"7 1","pages":"1"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69879995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.2991/jat.k.201218.001
Mohammed Shuaibu, A. Isah
African countries have over the years experienced persistent current account deficits. The role of asymmetries in explaining the response of trade balance to exchange rate movement has not received adequate attention as linear models dominate extant empirical literature. In this paper, we examined the impact of exchange rate on the trade balance in five African countries using both linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models to analyze data for the period 1980–2018. The linear model revealed that the J-curve holds in Uganda in the short run, whereas evidence of long-run J-curve effect was found only in Algeria. However, the nonlinear analysis showed that the short-run J-curve holds for South Africa and Uganda whereas a long- run J-curve effect was found in Algeria and Uganda. The results make a case for modeling asymmetries as the nonlinear model performed relatively better. An important policy implication is the need to address structural imbalances in the economy to leverage on the exchange rate and trade policies to improve trade outcomes. under the CC BY-NC of foreign income. α 0 is a constant whereas α 1 – α 3 are parameters of the model, and ε t is the random error term. The J-curve hypothesis posits that an increase in the real effective exchange rate leads to an initial deterioration of the trade balance of a country but thereafter improves it when exports and imports adjust to price changes. An increase in real domestic income is expected to worsen the trade balance because the demand for imports increases, whereas an increase in foreign income improves the trade balance because it stimulates foreign demand for domestic products. The J-curve hypothesis incorporates time effects into the Marshall–Lerner condition, suggesting that the sum of trade elasticities may be below unity in the short run but greater than unity over the long run.
{"title":"Exchange Rate Dynamics and Trade Balance in Selected African Countries","authors":"Mohammed Shuaibu, A. Isah","doi":"10.2991/jat.k.201218.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jat.k.201218.001","url":null,"abstract":"African countries have over the years experienced persistent current account deficits. The role of asymmetries in explaining the response of trade balance to exchange rate movement has not received adequate attention as linear models dominate extant empirical literature. In this paper, we examined the impact of exchange rate on the trade balance in five African countries using both linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models to analyze data for the period 1980–2018. The linear model revealed that the J-curve holds in Uganda in the short run, whereas evidence of long-run J-curve effect was found only in Algeria. However, the nonlinear analysis showed that the short-run J-curve holds for South Africa and Uganda whereas a long- run J-curve effect was found in Algeria and Uganda. The results make a case for modeling asymmetries as the nonlinear model performed relatively better. An important policy implication is the need to address structural imbalances in the economy to leverage on the exchange rate and trade policies to improve trade outcomes. under the CC BY-NC of foreign income. α 0 is a constant whereas α 1 – α 3 are parameters of the model, and ε t is the random error term. The J-curve hypothesis posits that an increase in the real effective exchange rate leads to an initial deterioration of the trade balance of a country but thereafter improves it when exports and imports adjust to price changes. An increase in real domestic income is expected to worsen the trade balance because the demand for imports increases, whereas an increase in foreign income improves the trade balance because it stimulates foreign demand for domestic products. The J-curve hypothesis incorporates time effects into the Marshall–Lerner condition, suggesting that the sum of trade elasticities may be below unity in the short run but greater than unity over the long run.","PeriodicalId":33808,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Trade","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69880006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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