Journal of African Trade最新文献

This paper explores the relationship between trade, trade liberalization, and exports diversification in developing and Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The non-parametric analyses indicate that developing countries that are more open to trade (based on trade intensity) tend to have more diversified exports structures than those that are classified as less open. However, for SSA countries the non-parametric test shows that countries that are more open to trade have less diversified exports structures. Regarding the parametric analysis, the findings provide further evidence that trade liberalization, in the form of lower tariffs, contributes to exports diversification in developing countries, and the results for the long term are even stronger for SSA countries. With regard to trade intensity, the parametric estimations also confirm the results that trade is associated with diversification in developing countries and in SSA countries in the short term; however, for SSA countries, it actually leads to concentration in the long term, consistent with the non-parametric results. The empirical analyses also show that human capital, GDP per capita and institutions, play important roles in exports diversification.

The optimism surrounding aid for trade (AfT) led scholars and practitioners to probe its link with trade performance of aid-recipient countries in Africa. In the absence of formal evaluation guidelines, most previous studies, using aggregate data, have looked into the impacts of AfT on exports and imports and found results consistent with the stated objectives of AfT. The present study investigates the nature of the link for the case of African countries using disaggregated AfT data from China and OECD member countries. The results show that flows of OECD aid to all sectors and to economic infrastructure have increased both Africa's imports from and exports to OECD countries. This finding also holds the various commodity group. The results for the components of AfT from OECD countries are mixed, with AfT for ‘trade education and training' the only component found to improve net-exports. In the case of China, the results are weak, but suggest that Chinese AfT flows to Africa have played little role in Africa's trade with China, with infrastructure and economic size of African countries being more important.

This paper uses a novel manufacturing firm-level survey data in 19 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to explore the linkages among a number of export-market destinations (e.g., China, India, other Asia, EU, US, MENA, SSA excluding South Africa, and South Africa) and performance. The paper also examines differences between exporters and non-exporters performance and assesses self-selection. We find superior characteristics of exporters relative to non-exporters. Size, foreign ownership and past export experience enhance the propensity to export while continuing exporters outperform switching ones. Export destination matters: exporting to China leads to improvements in total factor productivity (TFP); India destination enhances the wage rate, labour productivity and TFP, while the South Africa destination depresses capital intensity. Furthermore, the study finds that export intensity matters for certain destinations, with higher levels of exports to the USA improving enterprise performance, such as increases in overall output and labor productivity, while the reverse holds for exports to other SSA countries. This latter finding clearly poses a challenge to efforts to increase intra-Africa trade. These findings should provide coherent and coordinated strategies for SSA policies seeking to promote economic development through exporting and diversification of trade partners.

The volatile nature of exchange rates with the advent of floating regimes has received much attention in economic research. The volatility is generally perceived as negatively affecting international trade. While theoretical predictions and empirical outcomes appear mixed, the balance seems to tilt in favour of this perception. Applying the pooled mean-group estimator of dynamic heterogeneous panels technique to data for eleven Sub-Saharan African economies over the period 1993 to 2014, this paper uncovers no significant effects of exchange rate volatility on imports. In the case of exports, however, the study finds a negative effect of volatility in the short-run, consistent with the above view, but a positive impact in the long-run.

This paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment on total factor productivity conditional on relative backwardness in a panel of 45 African countries over the period 1980–2012. We use two measures of relative backwardness, namely: the distance from technological frontier and the income gap. We apply the fixed-effects and two-step system GMM methods. We find a generally positive but weak effect of FDI on productivity growth. Meanwhile, the results do not support the convergence theory of Findlay (1978) and Wang and Blomstrom (1992), that relative backwardness would result in higher productivity growth via the adoption of foreign technologies.

As in many African countries, crude oil importation is a major drain on the economy of Ghana. We estimate short-run and long-run import demand models for crude oil using data over the period 1980–2012. Results show that demand for crude oil is price inelastic in the short-run but elastic in the long-run. Other important drivers of crude oil import are the real effective exchange rate, domestic oil production and population growth. Income is found to be the strongest driver of crude oil demand. Policy implications of our results are presented.

This paper uses new measures of value added in exports in two sectors (textiles and clothing, and agriculture) to examine the linkages between trade facilitation and infrastructure on the one hand, and value chain participation on the other. It applies network analysis methods to derive a summary measure of value chain connectivity for 189 countries, including 44 in Sub-Saharan Africa. There is a statistically significant association between this measure and summary indicators of infrastructure development and trade facilitation performance. Moreover, it is not only a country's own performance that matters, but also that of its neighbors. The regional dimension of infrastructure and trade facilitation policies is an important determinant of particularly SSA countries' ability to connect to global value chains.

This study investigates how trade openness affects economic growth in developing countries, with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We use a dynamic growth model with data from 42 SSA countries covering 1980 to 2012. We employ the Pooled Mean Group estimation technique, which is appropriate for drawing conclusions from dynamic heterogeneous panels by considering long-run equilibrium relations. The empirical evidence indicates that a trade threshold exists below which greater trade openness has beneficial effects on economic growth and above which the trade effect on growth declines. The evidence also indicates an inverted U-curve (Laffer Curve of Trade) response, robust to changes in trade openness measures and to alternative model specifications, suggesting the non-fragility of the linkage between economic growth and trade openness for sub-Saharan countries. Our findings are promising and support the view that the relation between trade openness and economic growth is not linear for SSA. Accordingly, SSA countries must have more effective trade openness, particularly by productively controlling import levels, in order to boost their economic growth through international trade.

Sub-Saharan Africa is the region where firms face the greatest hurdles when it comes to cross-border trading. This paper examines how these firms, relative to their counterparts in the developing world, would respond to changes in the trade environment as a result of trade facilitation reforms. Using data from World Bank's Enterprise Surveys, the paper suggests that improving customs clearance, government regulations, trade finance, and energy and telecommunication infrastructure contributes to increasing the probability of firms' entry into exporting and importing, as well as to the extent of their trade. The results also indicate that African firms tend to respond more to a changing environment, owing to the greater constraints that they face. Exports tend to be more responsive than imports, suggesting a favorable short-term adjustment of the balance of payments. There is a sizable distributive effect, as larger and smaller firms gain differently depending on which reform and which direction of trade one considers. These results could help better understand how to harness the trade potential of sub-Saharan African firms, and they should constitute a welcome addition to the body of knowledge at a time when there is an uncertainty about the priority issues for multilateral agreements in the area of trade.

This study evaluates the economic impact of the proposed COMESA-SADC-EAC Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) on 26 African countries. It uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and database to measure the static effects of the establishment of the TFTA on industrial production, trade flows and consumption in the TFTA. The results indicate a significant increase in intra-regional exports as a result of tariff elimination, boosting intra-regional trade by 29%. Particularly encouraging is the fact that the sectors benefiting most are manufacturing ones, such as light and heavy manufacturing, and processed food. Concerns have been raised that industrial production in the TFTA could concentrate in the countries with highest productivity levels - namely, Egypt and South Africa. Simulation results suggest that these fears are exaggerated, with little evidence of concentration of industries in the larger countries.