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PERBANDINGAN MODEL CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM) DAN LIQUIDITY ADJUSTED CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (LCAPM) DALAM PEMBENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL SAHAM SYARIAH
Pub Date : 2019-07-24 DOI: 10.14710/MEDSTAT.12.1.86-99
Veladita Apriyanti, Epha Diana Supandi
In stock investments, every investor wants to get a high level of return and low risk. The stock price is very volatile and unpredictable, this makes investors have to find solutions in order to get a benefit from this investment. One way is to form a portfolio. A portfolio is a collection of several shares. There are several models for calculating stock portfolios such as CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) and LCAPM (Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model). The CAPM is a model that describes the relationship between the  expected return  and risk of investing in a security. The LCAPM is an extension of CAPM by taking into account the liquidity of assets. Data from Jakarta Islamic Index is used to verify the two models. In this case, the empirical results show that the performance of CAPM is better than the LCAPM.
在股票投资中,每个投资者都希望获得高回报和低风险。股价波动很大,不可预测,这使得投资者必须找到解决方案才能从投资中获益。一种方法是形成投资组合。一个投资组合是几个股票的集合。有几种计算股票投资组合的模型,如CAPM(资本资产定价模型)和LCAPM(流动性调整资本资产定价模式)。CAPM是一个描述证券投资的预期回报和风险之间关系的模型。LCAPM是CAPM的延伸,考虑到了资产的流动性。雅加达伊斯兰指数的数据用于验证这两个模型。在这种情况下,实证结果表明CAPM的性能优于LCAPM。
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引用次数: 1
KLASIFIKASI PENERIMAAN BERAS MISKIN DI KOTA SEMARANG MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA CHISQUARE AUTOMATIC INTERACTION DETECTION (CHAID) DAN CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREE (CART) Peeriman分类包含算法CHISQUARE自动交互检测(CHAID)和分类回归树(CART)
Pub Date : 2019-07-24 DOI: 10.14710/MEDSTAT.12.1.63-72
Dwi Ispriyanti, Alan Prahutama, M. Mustafid, Tarno Tarno
Decreasing poverty level is the first goal of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Poverty in Central Java from 2002 to 2017 has decreased, as well as the city of Semarang. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the factors that determine the decline in poverty classification in the city of Semarang. The classification analysis in statistics uses one classification tree. Several methods using classification trees include CART, CHAID, C45 and ID3 algorithms. In this study the methods used were CART and CHAID Algorithms. CART and CHAID algorithms are binary classification trees. The CART separation rules use split goodness op, while CHAID uses CHI-Square. In the analysis, the value of using CART was 95.2% while CHAID was 95.2%. While the factors that influence poverty classification using CHAID include the acceptance of poor rice, the main building materials of the house walls, and the main fuel for cooking. Whereas with the CART Algorithm the variables that influence are the main fuels for cooking, poor rice receipts, the number of household members, final disposal sites, sources of drinking water, the household head's business field, roofing materials, and building walls.
降低贫困水平是可持续发展目标的首要目标。2002年至2017年,中爪哇的贫困程度有所下降,三宝垄市也有所下降。因此,有必要研究决定三宝垄市贫困分类下降的因素。统计学中的分类分析使用一个分类树。使用分类树的几种方法包括CART、CHAID、C45和ID3算法。在本研究中使用的方法是CART和CHAID算法。CART和CHAID算法是二叉分类树。CART分离规则使用分割优度运算,而CHAID使用CHI平方。在分析中,使用CART的价值为95.2%,而CHAID为95.2%。而影响使用CHAID进行贫困分类的因素包括对劣质大米的接受程度、房屋墙壁的主要建筑材料和烹饪的主要燃料。而在CART算法中,影响的变量是烹饪的主要燃料、较差的大米收入、家庭成员数量、最终处理地点、饮用水来源、户主的商业领域、屋顶材料和建筑墙壁。
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引用次数: 1
PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN EKSTREM DI KOTA SEMARANG MENGGUNAKAN SPATIAL EXTREME VALUE DENGAN PENDEKATAN MAX STABLE PROCESS (MSP) 稳定过程(SME)空间极值最大成本下的极值特征预测
Pub Date : 2019-07-24 DOI: 10.14710/MEDSTAT.12.1.39-49
Hasbi Yasin, Budi Warsito, Arief Rachman Hakim
This research covers Spatial Extreme Value method application with Max-Stable Process (MSP) approach that will be used to analysis Extreme Rainfall in Semarang city. Extreme value sample are selected by Block Maxima methods, it will be estimated into Spatial Extreme Value form by including location factors. Then it transform to Frechet distribution because it has a heavy tail pattern. Max Stable Process (MSP) is an extension of the multivariate extreme value distribution into infinite dimension of the Extreme Value Theory. After the best model of extreme rainfall data in Semarang is obtained, then calculated the prediction of extreme rainfall with a certain time period. Predictions are calculated using a return level, predictions of extreme rainfall using the return period of the next two years, at the Semarang City Climatology Station predicted to be a maximum of 100.7539 mm. At the Tanjung Mas Rain Monitoring Station it is predicted that a maximum of 100.1052 mm, Ahmad Yani Rain Monitoring Station is predicted to be a maximum of 109.9379 mm. Maximum prediction of extreme rainfall can also be calculated for future t (time) periods.
本研究涵盖了空间极值方法与最大稳定过程(MSP)方法的应用,该方法将用于分析三宝垄市的极端降雨量。极值样本采用块极大值法选取,通过包含位置因子将其估计为空间极值形式。然后它转换为Frechet分布,因为它有一个沉重的尾部模式。最大稳定过程(MSP)是极值理论中多元极值分布向无穷维的扩展。在得到三宝垄极端降雨数据的最佳模型后,计算出一定时间段内的极端降雨预测值。三宝垄市气象站预测的最大降雨量为100.7539毫米。丹戎马斯雨水监测站预测的最高降雨量为100.1052毫米,Ahmad Yani雨水监测站的最高降雨量预计为109.9379毫米。还可以计算未来t(时间)段的极端降雨量的最大预测值。
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引用次数: 4
PERHITUNGAN VALUE AT RISK DENGAN PENDEKATAN THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY-GENERALIZED EXTREME VALUE 风险值估计与彭德卡坦阈值自回归条件异方差广义极值
Pub Date : 2019-07-24 DOI: 10.14710/MEDSTAT.12.1.73-85
Mutik Dian Prabaning Tyas, D. A. I. Maruddani, R. Rahmawati
Stock is the most popular type of financial asset investment. Before buying a stock, an investor must estimate the risks which will be received. Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the methods that can be used to measure the level of risk. When investing in stock, if an investor wants to earn high returns, then he must be prepared to face higher risks. Most of stock return data have volatility clustering characteristic or there are cases of heteroscedasticity and the distribution of stock returns has heavy tail. One of the time series models that can be used to overcome the problem of heteroscedasticity is the ARCH/GARCH model, while the method for analyzing heavy tail data is Extreme Value Theory (EVT). In this study used an asymmetrical ARCH model with the Threshold ARCH (TARCH) and EVT methods with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) to calculate VaR of the stock return from PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk for the period of September 2012 to October 2018. The best chosen model is AR([3])–TARCH(1). At the 95% confidence level, the maximum loss an investor will be received within the next day by using the TARCH-GEV calculation is 0.18%.
股票是最受欢迎的金融资产投资类型。在购买股票之前,投资者必须估计将要承受的风险。风险价值(VaR)是衡量风险水平的一种方法。在投资股票时,如果投资者想获得高回报,那么他必须准备好面对更高的风险。大多数股票收益数据具有波动性聚类特征或存在异方差,股票收益分布具有重尾特征。可以用来克服异方差问题的时间序列模型之一是ARCH/GARCH模型,而分析重尾数据的方法是极值理论(EVT)。本文采用非对称ARCH模型,结合阈值ARCH (TARCH)和广义极值EVT (GEV)方法,计算了PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk公司2012年9月至2018年10月期间股票收益的VaR。最佳选择模型为AR([3]) -TARCH(1)。在95%的置信水平下,使用TARCH-GEV计算,投资者在第二天内将收到的最大损失为0.18%。
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引用次数: 3
ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN KINERJA CART KONVENSIONAL, BAGGING DAN RANDOM FOREST PADA KLASIFIKASI OBJEK: HASIL DARI DUA SIMULASI 用对象分类法分析传统卡片机捆扎、套袋和森林随机性:两个模拟中的HASIL
Pub Date : 2019-07-24 DOI: 10.14710/MEDSTAT.12.1.1-12
Yogo Aryo Jatmiko, S. Padmadisastra, Anna Chadidjah
The conventional CART method is a nonparametric classification method built on categorical response data. Bagging is one of the popular ensemble methods whereas, Random Forests (RF) is one of the relatively new ensemble methods in the decision tree that is the development of the Bagging method. Unlike Bagging, Random Forest was developed with the idea of adding layers to the random resampling process in Bagging. Therefore, not only randomly sampled sample data to form a classification tree, but also independent variables are randomly selected and newly selected as the best divider when determining the sorting of trees, which is expected to produce more accurate predictions. Based on the above, the authors are interested to study the three methods by comparing the accuracy of classification on binary and non-binary simulation data to understand the effect of the number of sample sizes, the correlation between independent variables, the presence or absence of certain distribution patterns to the accuracy generated classification method. results of the research on simulation data show that the Random Forest ensemble method can improve the accuracy of classification.
传统的CART方法是一种建立在分类响应数据基础上的非参数分类方法。Bagging是一种流行的集成方法,而随机森林(RF)是决策树中相对较新的集成方法之一,是Bagging方法的发展。与Bagging不同,Random Forest的开发理念是在Bagging中的随机重采样过程中添加层。因此,在确定树的排序时,不仅随机采样样本数据以形成分类树,而且随机选择自变量并新选择自变量作为最佳除法器,有望产生更准确的预测。基于上述,作者有兴趣通过比较二元和非二元模拟数据的分类精度来研究这三种方法,以了解样本量的数量、自变量之间的相关性、是否存在某些分布模式对精度生成的分类方法的影响。对仿真数据的研究结果表明,随机森林集成方法可以提高分类精度。
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引用次数: 8
MODEL PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL DENGAN METODE DIAGONALLY WEIGHTED LEAST SQUARE (DWLS) UNTUK DATA ORDINAL 采用对角线加权最小二乘(dwls)方法对数据进行排序
Pub Date : 2019-07-24 DOI: 10.14710/medstat.12.1.100-116
Isnayanti Isnayanti, Abdurakhman Abdurakhman
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引用次数: 3
ANALISIS DAMPAK GUNCANGAN HARGA MINYAK MENTAH TERHADAP MAKROEKONOMI INDONESIA: APLIKASI VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MECHANISM 印尼宏观经济部长工作程序实例分析:向量纠错机制应用
Pub Date : 2019-07-24 DOI: 10.14710/MEDSTAT.12.1.13-25
Michael Andre, N. Nasrudin
Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP) often fluctuates by the shock of world oil prices. Because of its important role, the fluctuations or shocks in ICP will affect Indonesia's macro economy. To overcome this problem, this study analyzes the impact of the crude oil price shocks on Indonesia's macro economy which includes economic growth and the money supply (M2) during 2010-2016 using Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM). The results show that short-term fluctuations of ICP have a significant and positive effect on economic growth but have a non-significant effect on the money supply. In the long term equilibrium, ICP have a positive and significant effect to both economic growth and money supply which in line with Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Decomposition of Variance (FEDV) analysis. Given its positive impact, the recent decline in oil prices will harm the Indonesian economy. Therefore, the government needs to reduce its dependence on crude oil exports and accurately predict the crude oil price in the future.
印尼原油价格(ICP)经常因世界油价的冲击而波动。由于其重要作用,国际比较项目的波动或冲击将影响印尼的宏观经济。为了克服这一问题,本研究利用向量误差修正机制(VECM)分析了2010-2016年原油价格冲击对印尼宏观经济的影响,包括经济增长和货币供应量(M2)。结果表明,国际比较项目的短期波动对经济增长有显著的正向影响,但对货币供应量的影响不显著。在长期均衡中,ICP对经济增长和货币供应都有积极而显著的影响,这与脉冲响应函数(IRF)和方差分解(FEDV)分析一致。鉴于其积极影响,近期油价下跌将损害印尼经济。因此,政府需要减少对原油出口的依赖,并准确预测未来的原油价格。
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引用次数: 1
PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN EKSTRIM DI PROVINSI BANTEN DENGAN MODEL EKSTRIM SPASIAL 应用EXTRIM空间模型处理班滕省EXTRIM监测
Pub Date : 2019-07-24 DOI: 10.14710/MEDSTAT.12.1.50-62
A. Djuraidah, Cici Suheni, Banan Nabila
Extreme rainfall can cause negative impacts such as floods, landslides, and crop failures. Extreme rainfall modeling using spatial extreme models can provide location information of the event. Spatial extreme models combine the extreme value theory, the max-stable process, and the geostatistical correlation function of F-madogram. The estimation of the return value on the spatial extreme models is performed using the copula approach. This research used monthly rainfall data from January 1998 until December 2014 at 19 rain stations in Banten Province. The results showed that there was a high spatial dependence on extreme rainfall data in Banten Province. The forecast in range 1.5 years showed the best result compared to other ranges (1 year, 3 years, and 5 years) with MAPE 20%. The pattern of extreme rainfall forecasting was similar to its actual value with a correlation of 0.7 to 0.8. The predicted location that has the highest extreme rainfall was the Pandeglang Regency. Extreme rainfall forecasting at 19 rain stations in Banten Province using spatial extreme models produced a good forecasting.
极端降雨会造成洪水、山体滑坡和作物歉收等负面影响。使用空间极值模型的极端降雨建模可以提供事件的位置信息。空间极值模型结合了极值理论、最大稳定过程和F-madogram的地质统计相关函数。使用copula方法对空间极值模型的返回值进行估计。这项研究使用了万丹省19个雨量站1998年1月至2014年12月的月度降雨量数据。结果表明,万丹省的极端降雨数据具有高度的空间依赖性。与其他范围(1年、3年和5年)相比,1.5年范围内的预测显示出最好的结果,MAPE为20%。极端降雨量预测模式与其实际值相似,相关性为0.7至0.8。预测的极端降雨量最高的地区是潘德朗县。万丹省19个雨量站采用空间极值模型进行的极端降雨预报效果良好。
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引用次数: 6
EXPECTED SHORTFALL UNTUK MENGUKUR RISIKO KERUGIAN PETANI JAGUNG 预计缺口将承担长期佩尼亚风险
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.14710/medstat.12.1.117-128
Rita Rahmawati, Agus Rusgiyono, Abdul Hoyyi, D. I. Maruddani
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引用次数: 1
CREDIT SCORING MENGGUNAKAN METODE LOCAL MEANS BASED K HARMONIC NEAREST NEIGHBOR (MLMKHNN) 信用评分采用基于局部均值的K次谐波近邻(MLMKHNN)
Pub Date : 2018-12-30 DOI: 10.14710/MEDSTAT.11.2.107-117
T. Widiharih, M. Mukid
Credit Scoring is designed so that lenders can easily make decisions regarding whether a loan proposal from a prospective customer is worthy of approval or not. This study examines the application of the Multi Local Means Based K Harmonic Nearest Neighbor (MLMKHNN) method in the case of motorcycle credit in a financial institution. The classification capability of this method in detecting potential borrowers into the credit category is either good or bad compared to its previous method, Local Means Based K Harmonic Nearest Neighbor (LMKNN). In this case the MLMKHNN method has not shown better performance than the LMKNN method. At the same level of total accuracy, MLMKHNN requires more numbers of neighbors than the number of neighbors required by the LMKNN method. Keywords : sampling design, all possible samples, statistical efficiency , cost efficienc y
信用评分旨在让贷款人能够轻松决定潜在客户的贷款提议是否值得批准。本研究考察了基于多局部均值的K谐波最近邻(MLMKHNN)方法在金融机构摩托车信贷案例中的应用。与之前的方法——基于局部均值的K谐波最近邻(LMKNN)相比,该方法在将潜在借款人检测到信贷类别中的分类能力是好的还是坏的。在这种情况下,MLMKHNN方法没有显示出比LMKNN方法更好的性能。在总精度相同的水平下,MLMKHNN需要比LMKNN方法所需的邻居数量更多的邻居数量。关键词:抽样设计,所有可能的样本,统计效率,成本效益
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引用次数: 1
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Media Statistika
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