Risk-taking by financial institutions is widely regarded as the one of the causes of the global financial crisis. To reduce the probability of crises and internalize the costs of financial institution distress, policymakers have introduced bank levies (BLs). In this study, we evaluate the effects of the Hungarian and German BLs on the risk-taking behavior of financial institutions. We compare two totally different BL designs. The results unambiguously demonstrate that a BL on assets has a negative impact on the financial sector’s stability. The results of analyzing the influence that introducing BLs has had on the German financial sector demonstrate that BLs on liabilities decrease credit risk. An improved understanding of the determinants of the risk of EU financial institutions is very important for regulators and supervisors interested in benchmarking and validation issues related to the new EU banking regulation.
{"title":"Effect of Bank Levy Introduction on Bank Risk-Taking","authors":"Karolina Puławska","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3598944","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3598944","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Risk-taking by financial institutions is widely regarded as the one of the causes of the global financial crisis. To reduce the probability of crises and internalize the costs of financial institution distress, policymakers have introduced bank levies (BLs). In this study, we evaluate the effects of the Hungarian and German BLs on the risk-taking behavior of financial institutions. We compare two totally different BL designs. The results unambiguously demonstrate that a BL on assets has a negative impact on the financial sector’s stability. The results of analyzing the influence that introducing BLs has had on the German financial sector demonstrate that BLs on liabilities decrease credit risk. An improved understanding of the determinants of the risk of EU financial institutions is very important for regulators and supervisors interested in benchmarking and validation issues related to the new EU banking regulation.","PeriodicalId":344099,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Banking & Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"110 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132614936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper builds a model of populism called Democratic Rioting in which citizens – i.e. the poor and the rich - are assumed to be heavily influenced by psychological group dynamics that result from banking shocks. We highlight a display of anger that is channelled through an election instead of in the streets. In turn the anger – a self-serving bias – can be influenced by non-financial news about immigration, welfare plans and housing plans. Therefore after a banking shock the consensus on a myopic populist policy can depend on many issues that have nothing to do with the bailout decision itself. We describe a mechanism that can be applied to the aftermath of both the Great Recession and the Great Depression.
{"title":"Populism, Group Thinking and Banking Policy","authors":"Federico Favaretto, D. Masciandaro","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3545223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3545223","url":null,"abstract":"This paper builds a model of populism called Democratic Rioting in which citizens – i.e. the poor and the rich - are assumed to be heavily influenced by psychological group dynamics that result from banking shocks. We highlight a display of anger that is channelled through an election instead of in the streets. In turn the anger – a self-serving bias – can be influenced by non-financial news about immigration, welfare plans and housing plans. Therefore after a banking shock the consensus on a myopic populist policy can depend on many issues that have nothing to do with the bailout decision itself. We describe a mechanism that can be applied to the aftermath of both the Great Recession and the Great Depression.","PeriodicalId":344099,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Banking & Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122086469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper is aimed at illustrating an innovative tool/strategy to address the general, wider and multifaceted NPL issue from a banking perspective, focusing in particular on UTP; a half-way strategy between a traditional “hold/forbearance” approach and a traditional “portfolio reduction” approach, producing a change in the type of exposure. Such a new, complementary, tool is aimed at overcoming market inefficiencies that other “traditional” approaches/tools currently present and, at the same time, helping to effectively reduce the legacy assets at bearable levels. At the same time this is a “debtor-level” approach that pursues the concentration and coordination of all the exposures of the banking system vis-à-vis the same debtor, as a precondition for a successful restructuring process of corporate borrowers in distress. Such a tool can be identified in a so called “Restructuring Fund”, a specific and peculiar kind of AIF.
{"title":"‘Restructuring Funds’; an Alternative Tool for a Systemic Approach to Active Management of Unlikely to Pay (UTP)","authors":"Paolo Carrière","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3541626","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3541626","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is aimed at illustrating an innovative tool/strategy to address the general, wider and multifaceted NPL issue from a banking perspective, focusing in particular on UTP; a half-way strategy between a traditional “hold/forbearance” approach and a traditional “portfolio reduction” approach, producing a change in the type of exposure. Such a new, complementary, tool is aimed at overcoming market inefficiencies that other “traditional” approaches/tools currently present and, at the same time, helping to effectively reduce the legacy assets at bearable levels. At the same time this is a “debtor-level” approach that pursues the concentration and coordination of all the exposures of the banking system vis-à-vis the same debtor, as a precondition for a successful restructuring process of corporate borrowers in distress. Such a tool can be identified in a so called “Restructuring Fund”, a specific and peculiar kind of AIF.","PeriodicalId":344099,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Banking & Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"255 16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125423342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rationale. This article summarises the main results of the Bank Lending Survey for 2022 Q4 and the expectations for 2023 Q1. It also analyses matters related to funding market access and the impact of other factors on responding banks’ lending policy. Takeaways. •According to the Bank Lending Survey, in 2022 Q4 credit standards tightened across the board in Spain for the third consecutive quarter. •Loan demand fell in the two household segments (house purchase and consumer credit and other lending), while demand from enterprises grew slightly, driven by their greater financing needs for working capital and inventories. •For 2023 Q1, banks once again expect loan supply to contract and loan demand to fall across the board.
{"title":"January 2020 Bank Lending Survey in Spain","authors":"Álvaro Menéndez Pujadas","doi":"10.53479/29552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53479/29552","url":null,"abstract":"Rationale. This article summarises the main results of the Bank Lending Survey for 2022 Q4 and the expectations for 2023 Q1. It also analyses matters related to funding market access and the impact of other factors on responding banks’ lending policy.\u0000 Takeaways. •According to the Bank Lending Survey, in 2022 Q4 credit standards tightened across the board in Spain for the third consecutive quarter. •Loan demand fell in the two household segments (house purchase and consumer credit and other lending), while demand from enterprises grew slightly, driven by their greater financing needs for working capital and inventories. •For 2023 Q1, banks once again expect loan supply to contract and loan demand to fall across the board.","PeriodicalId":344099,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Banking & Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133252166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper analyses the profitability of Finnish cooperative banks during the period of negative nominal interest rates. Contrary to expectations, the continuous decline in money market interest rates between 2009 and 2014, and the following negative rate era, did not have adverse effects on the profitability of banks at the beginning of negative interest rate period. Based on especially using a risk-adjusted measure for bank profitability, these results contrast with previous findings. In our findings, the increasing wholesale funding (WSF) ratio seems to be an important factor. However, after 2017 the banks have not been able to improve especially their risk-adjusted profitability so strongly anymore, because the WSF and the development of other than net interest margin returns have been in negative connection to it. In addition, the unconventional monetary policy actions seem not to improve profitability in the most recent observations of our data. These results raise serious concerns for the future of bank profitability during the prolonged period of negative interest rates.
{"title":"Keep the Faith in Banking: New Evidence for the Effects of Negative Interest Rates Based on the Case of Finnish Cooperative Banks","authors":"J. Junttila, J. Raatikainen, J. Perttunen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3512759","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3512759","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper analyses the profitability of Finnish cooperative banks during the period of negative nominal interest rates. Contrary to expectations, the continuous decline in money market interest rates between 2009 and 2014, and the following negative rate era, did not have adverse effects on the profitability of banks at the beginning of negative interest rate period. Based on especially using a risk-adjusted measure for bank profitability, these results contrast with previous findings. In our findings, the increasing wholesale funding (WSF) ratio seems to be an important factor. However, after 2017 the banks have not been able to improve especially their risk-adjusted profitability so strongly anymore, because the WSF and the development of other than net interest margin returns have been in negative connection to it. In addition, the unconventional monetary policy actions seem not to improve profitability in the most recent observations of our data. These results raise serious concerns for the future of bank profitability during the prolonged period of negative interest rates.","PeriodicalId":344099,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Banking & Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115901460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Banks have a significant funding-cost advantage since their liabilities are protected by various government safety nets. We construct a corporate finance-style model that shows that banks can exploit this funding-cost advantage by just intermediating funds between investors and ultimate borrowers, thereby earning the spread between their reduced funding rate and the competitive market rate. This mechanism leads to a crowding-out of direct market finance and real effects for bank borrowers through bank risk-shifting at the intensive margin. That is, banks induce their borrowers to leverage excessively, to overinvest, and to conduct inferior high-risk projects.
{"title":"Doubling Down on the Safe(ty) Bet: Bailouts and Risk-Shifting at the Intensive Margin","authors":"Christian Eufinger, Zhiqiang Ye","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3591158","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3591158","url":null,"abstract":"Banks have a significant funding-cost advantage since their liabilities are protected by various government safety nets. We construct a corporate finance-style model that shows that banks can exploit this funding-cost advantage by just intermediating funds between investors and ultimate borrowers, thereby earning the spread between their reduced funding rate and the competitive market rate. This mechanism leads to a crowding-out of direct market finance and real effects for bank borrowers through bank risk-shifting at the intensive margin. That is, banks induce their borrowers to leverage excessively, to overinvest, and to conduct inferior high-risk projects.","PeriodicalId":344099,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Banking & Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126944640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper argues that the traditional dichotomous and static conceptualisations of financial systems fail explain how financial systems have changed as a result of transformative events (the 2007-2008 financial crisis in particular) and trends in recent decades. To shed light on developments in contemporary financial systems in the EU, this paper presents and analyses an index that seeks to capture the extent to which funding structures in non-financial companies subject them to financial pressures.
The index reveals that the EU as a whole is distinctly “bank-based”, in the sense of private equity and bank credit matter more for funding of non-financial companies than listed equity or market-based credit. However, the EU and its Member States have become more market-based over the last decade. While this trend generally holds true, there is also increasing divergence between European financial systems. Developments in individual countries appears to be determined by competitive advantage specialization as well as how strong the country was hit by the 2007-2008 financial crisis.
The paper thereby contributes to the comparative political economy literature on comparative financial systems, as well as the much neglected questions if, how and why institutional transformation in financial systems occur. It also contributes to the literature on how different national financial systems respond to economic shocks.
{"title":"Institutional Dynamics in EU Financial Systems","authors":"Elias Bengtsson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3507610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3507610","url":null,"abstract":"This paper argues that the traditional dichotomous and static conceptualisations of financial systems fail explain how financial systems have changed as a result of transformative events (the 2007-2008 financial crisis in particular) and trends in recent decades. To shed light on developments in contemporary financial systems in the EU, this paper presents and analyses an index that seeks to capture the extent to which funding structures in non-financial companies subject them to financial pressures.<br><br>The index reveals that the EU as a whole is distinctly “bank-based”, in the sense of private equity and bank credit matter more for funding of non-financial companies than listed equity or market-based credit. However, the EU and its Member States have become more market-based over the last decade. While this trend generally holds true, there is also increasing divergence between European financial systems. Developments in individual countries appears to be determined by competitive advantage specialization as well as how strong the country was hit by the 2007-2008 financial crisis.<br><br>The paper thereby contributes to the comparative political economy literature on comparative financial systems, as well as the much neglected questions if, how and why institutional transformation in financial systems occur. It also contributes to the literature on how different national financial systems respond to economic shocks.<br>","PeriodicalId":344099,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Banking & Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"96 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114253501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the recent years, the great majority of central banks have globally failed to realize inflation targets. We attempt to answer a question of whether such failure resulted from insufficient organization of economic research in those institutions. Our study shows a positive, but statistically weak, relationship between these issues. However, the analysis finds also a few adverse irregularities in major central banks' research organizations. The research of the European Central Bank, Bundesbank, and the Bank of England are relatively less diversified compared to the U.S. Federal Reserve. In the cases of Poland and Italy, economic departments are dominated by groups of researchers focused on narrow topics. On the other hand, the organization of research departments in France and Canada support a greater variety of topics and independence of researchers.
{"title":"Are Central Banks’ Research Teams Fragile Because of Groupthink?","authors":"Jakub Rybacki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3510206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3510206","url":null,"abstract":"In the recent years, the great majority of central banks have globally failed to realize inflation targets. We attempt to answer a question of whether such failure resulted from insufficient organization of economic research in those institutions. Our study shows a positive, but statistically weak, relationship between these issues. However, the analysis finds also a few adverse irregularities in major central banks' research organizations. The research of the European Central Bank, Bundesbank, and the Bank of England are relatively less diversified compared to the U.S. Federal Reserve. In the cases of Poland and Italy, economic departments are dominated by groups of researchers focused on narrow topics. On the other hand, the organization of research departments in France and Canada support a greater variety of topics and independence of researchers.","PeriodicalId":344099,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Banking & Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"66 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132393787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate how local banking competition affects loan pricing using a novel empirical setup. We study the detailed loan pricing information of a large and multiregional operating bank for which the local competitive environment is arguably exogenous due to the federalist setup of the local German banking market. Based on unique data on loans granted to more than 10,000 German firms, we find that a higher degree of local bank competition results in a lower interest margin on loans. We find weak evidence that a close relationship shields the bank’s interest margins from competitive pressure.
{"title":"New Evidence on the Nexus between Local Banking Competition and Loan Pricing","authors":"Lisa Cycon, Claudia Schaffranka","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3501623","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3501623","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate how local banking competition affects loan pricing using a novel empirical setup. We study the detailed loan pricing information of a large and multiregional operating bank for which the local competitive environment is arguably exogenous due to the federalist setup of the local German banking market. Based on unique data on loans granted to more than 10,000 German firms, we find that a higher degree of local bank competition results in a lower interest margin on loans. We find weak evidence that a close relationship shields the bank’s interest margins from competitive pressure.","PeriodicalId":344099,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Banking & Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"64 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122749132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Margherita Bottero, Camelia Minoiu, J. Peydró, Andrea Polo, A. Presbitero, Enrico Sette
We show that negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has expansionary effects on bank credit supply— and the real economy —through a portfolio rebalancing channel, and that, by shifting down and flattening the yield curve, NIRP differs from rate cuts just above the zero lower bound. For identification, we exploit ECB’s NIRP and matched administrative datasets— including the credit register— from Italy, severely hit by the Eurozone crisis. NIRP affects banks with higher ex-ante net short-term interbank positions or, more broadly, more liquid balance-sheets. NIRP-affected banks rebalance their portfolios from liquid assets to lending, especially to ex-ante riskier and smaller firms—without higher ex-post delinquencies—and cut loan rates (even to the same firm), inducing sizable firm-level real effects. By contrast, there is no evidence of a retail deposits channel associated with NIRP.
{"title":"Expansionary Yet Different: Credit Supply and Real Effects of Negative Interest Rate Policy","authors":"Margherita Bottero, Camelia Minoiu, J. Peydró, Andrea Polo, A. Presbitero, Enrico Sette","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3612936","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3612936","url":null,"abstract":"We show that negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has expansionary effects on bank credit supply— and the real economy —through a portfolio rebalancing channel, and that, by shifting down and flattening the yield curve, NIRP differs from rate cuts just above the zero lower bound. For identification, we exploit ECB’s NIRP and matched administrative datasets— including the credit register— from Italy, severely hit by the Eurozone crisis. NIRP affects banks with higher ex-ante net short-term interbank positions or, more broadly, more liquid balance-sheets. NIRP-affected banks rebalance their portfolios from liquid assets to lending, especially to ex-ante riskier and smaller firms—without higher ex-post delinquencies—and cut loan rates (even to the same firm), inducing sizable firm-level real effects. By contrast, there is no evidence of a retail deposits channel associated with NIRP.","PeriodicalId":344099,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Banking & Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134029949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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