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Measuring the Effects of Unconventional Policies on Stock Market Volatility 衡量非常规政策对股市波动的影响
Pub Date : 2020-10-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3712995
Demetrio Lacava, G. Gallo, E. Otranto
As a response to the Great Recession, many central banks resorted to unconventional monetary policies, in the form of a balance sheet expansion. Our research aims at analyzing the impact of the ECB policies on stock market volatility in four Eurozone countries (France, Germany, Italy and Spain) within the Multiplicative Error Model framework. We propose a model which allows us to quantify the part of market volatility depending directly on unconventional policies by distinguishing between the announcement the implementation effects. While we observe an increase in volatility on announcement days, we find a negative implementation effect, which causes a remarkable reduction in volatility in the long term. A Model Confidence Set approach finds how the forecasting power of the proxy improves significantly after the policy announcement; a multi–step ahead forecasting exercise estimates the duration of the effect, and, by shocking the policy variable, we are able to quantify the reduction in volatility which is more marked for debt–troubled countries.
作为对大衰退(Great Recession)的回应,许多央行采取了非常规货币政策,其形式是扩大资产负债表。我们的研究旨在在乘法误差模型框架内分析欧洲央行政策对四个欧元区国家(法国、德国、意大利和西班牙)股市波动的影响。我们提出了一个模型,该模型允许我们通过区分公告和实施效果来量化直接依赖于非常规政策的市场波动部分。虽然我们观察到公告日的波动性增加,但我们发现了负面的实施效应,这导致波动性在长期内显著降低。模型置信集方法发现政策公告后代理的预测能力显著提高;提前多步预测可以估计影响的持续时间,通过冲击政策变量,我们能够量化波动性的降低,这在债务缠身的国家更为明显。
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引用次数: 4
Banks through the Lens of the Media 媒体镜头下的银行
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3903919
Eva A. Arnold
This is the first study evaluating whether depositors and supervisors should be concerned about media bias in banks’ coverage. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (1998) points out the media’s role as a secondary information source to depositors. Especially in times of (financial) crises, depositors need to be informed about their bank and the banking system’s safety. For this paper, we collect a unique data set containing almost 700,000 statements on more than 1,500 banks in 51 regional and 6 national German newspapers over 2007-2013. First, applying text analysis techniques, we quantitatively assess bank (type) coverage and sentiment. While regional and national outlets cover approximately the same number of banks and publish about the same amount of articles, we find that articles in national-wide newspapers require a higher literacy level. The main difference becomes apparent through sentiment analysis. On average, savings and cooperative banks are pictured more negatively in national than in regional newspapers. However, all news assess commercial banks most negatively, on average. Second, we describe the connectivity of newspapers and banks through geographical and network-driven distance measures. We thus provide a network perspective on banks throughout the crisis. Finally, we detect significant differences between regional and national newspapers using a difference-in-difference regression model, pointing to biases in coverage and sentiment.
这是第一个评估存款人和监管者是否应该关注媒体对银行报道的偏见的研究。巴塞尔银行监管委员会(1998)指出,媒体是存款人的次要信息来源。特别是在(金融)危机时期,存款人需要了解他们的银行和银行体系的安全性。在本文中,我们收集了一个独特的数据集,其中包含2007-2013年间德国51家地区性报纸和6家全国性报纸上1500多家银行的近70万份报表。首先,应用文本分析技术,我们定量评估银行(类型)覆盖率和情绪。虽然区域性和全国性报纸覆盖的银行数量大致相同,发表的文章数量也大致相同,但我们发现,全国性报纸上的文章对文化水平的要求更高。通过情绪分析,主要的区别变得明显。平均而言,全国性报纸对储蓄银行和合作银行的描述比地区性报纸更为负面。然而,平均而言,所有新闻对商业银行的评价都是负面的。其次,我们通过地理和网络驱动的距离度量来描述报纸和银行的连通性。因此,我们提供了一个网络视角来看待整个危机中的银行。最后,我们使用差异中差异回归模型检测了地区和国家报纸之间的显著差异,指出了报道和情绪上的偏差。
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引用次数: 0
The Case for Central Bank Independence: A Review of Key Issues in the International Debate 中央银行独立的理由:对国际辩论中关键问题的回顾
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3706132
Benjamin Vonessen, K. Arnold, Rodolfo Dall’Orto Mas, Christian Fehlker
This Occasional Paper analyses how significant expansions in central banks’ mandates, roles and instruments can result in challenges to the independence of monetary policy. The paper reviews, in particular, some of the key challenges to central bank independence brought about by the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007 and assesses their impact on the de jure and de facto independence of selected central banks around the world in the past few years. It finds that although the level of de jure (legal) central bank independence did not deteriorate, the level of de facto (actual) independence of the central banks of some of the largest economies in the world may have weakened. The paper presents counterarguments to the key critiques raised against central banks due to their policy response during the GFC, and concludes that the case for central bank independence is as strong as ever.
本文分析了央行职责、角色和工具的显著扩张如何对货币政策的独立性构成挑战。本文特别回顾了2007年全球金融危机(GFC)对央行独立性带来的一些关键挑战,并评估了这些挑战在过去几年中对世界各地选定的央行在法律上和事实上的独立性的影响。报告发现,尽管央行在法律上的独立性水平没有恶化,但世界上一些最大经济体的央行在事实上的独立性水平可能已经减弱。本文对全球金融危机期间针对央行的政策反应提出的关键批评提出了反驳,并得出结论认为,央行独立的理由一如既往地充分。
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引用次数: 12
Exchange Rates and the Information Channel of Monetary Policy 汇率与货币政策信息渠道
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3720440
Oliver Holtemöller, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Boreum Kwak
We disentangle the effects of monetary policy announcements on real economic variables into an interest rate shock component and a central bank information shock component. We identify both components using changes in interest rate futures and in exchange rates around monetary policy announcements. While the volatility of interest rate surprises declines around the Great Recession, the volatility of exchange rate changes increases. Making use of this heteroskedasticity, we estimate that a contractionary interest rate shock appreciates the dollar, increases the excess bond premium, and leads to a decline in prices and output, while a positive information shock appreciates the dollar, decreases prices and the excess bond premium, and increases output.
我们将货币政策公告对实体经济变量的影响分解为利率冲击成分和央行信息冲击成分。我们利用利率期货和围绕货币政策公告的汇率变化来确定这两个组成部分。大衰退期间,意外利率的波动性下降,而汇率变化的波动性则上升。利用这一异方差,我们估计,紧缩的利率冲击使美元升值,增加超额债券溢价,导致价格和产出下降,而积极的信息冲击使美元升值,降低价格和超额债券溢价,并增加产出。
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引用次数: 2
Taxing Bank Leverage: The Effects on Bank Portfolio Allocation 征税银行杠杆:对银行投资组合配置的影响
Pub Date : 2020-09-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2829326
Claire Célérier, Thomas K. Kick, S. Ongena
We explore the effect of tax reforms that decrease the cost of equity on bank lending. In 2000 and 2006, Italy and Belgium, respectively, introduced an allowance for corporate equity so that both firms and banks could deduct a notional interest on their equity from their taxable income. Because local firms were also affected by these reforms, we employ loan level data from a credit register in a third-country, i.e., Germany, to better identify the differential impact on lending by banks that were 'treated' by these tax reforms versus a control group of banks that were not. We find that the decrease in the cost of equity leads banks to raise their equity ratio, and to concurrently expand their balance sheet by increasing the amount of credit supplied in Germany. Conversely, the reversal of these reforms leads to a decrease in lending.
我们探讨了税收改革降低股权成本对银行贷款的影响。2000年和2006年,意大利和比利时分别引入了公司股本免税额,这样公司和银行就可以从应税收入中扣除其股本的名义利息。由于当地企业也受到这些改革的影响,我们采用了来自第三国(即德国)信用登记册的贷款水平数据,以更好地确定受到这些税收改革“待遇”的银行与未受到税收改革待遇的对照组银行对贷款的差异影响。我们发现,权益成本的下降导致银行提高其权益比率,同时通过增加德国的信贷供应量来扩大其资产负债表。相反,这些改革的逆转会导致贷款减少。
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引用次数: 14
The MREL Framework Under the Banking Reform Package 银行改革一揽子计划下的MREL框架
Pub Date : 2020-08-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3678561
Nikos Maragopoulos
The adoption of the “Banking Reform Package” (CRR2, CRD4, BRRD2, SRMR2) in 2019 led to material changes, among others, in the regulatory framework governing the Minimum Requirement for Own funds and Eligible Liabilities (MREL). The revised framework aimed at introducing the rules adopted by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) on the Total Loss-Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) to the Union law and addressing the deficiencies of the former framework. As regards the novelties brought in by the new framework, the most significant one pertains to the introduction of a minimum and fixed requirement (Pillar 1 MREL) for Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) and other large banks. At the same time, all banks are still subject to the bank-specific requirement (Pillar 2 MREL) for which no material amendment in the determination approach is introduced in the revised framework. In practice, the MREL target that banks must meet is the higher of the Pillar 1 MREL and the bank-specific Pillar 2 MREL. Other key elements of the revised framework are related to the obligation for banks to cover a significant part of the MREL with instruments subordinated to liabilities excluded (or likely to be excluded) from bail-in (subordination requirement), the introduction of the internal MREL for subsidiaries of resolution entities and the establishment of harmonized criteria for MREL-eligible liabilities. Furthermore, the revised rules clarify several aspects of the former framework, including the deadline for banks to meet the MREL, the redemption of MREL-eligible liabilities and the measures to address a breach of the MREL. The present paper analyses the aforementioned key elements of the revised MREL framework and assesses its conformity with the TLAC standard, as well as the implications that may arise as a result of its complexity and the discretions provided to resolution authorities. As regards the first point, the analysis indicates that the transposition of the TLAC rules into the Union law not only achieves the target of conformity, but also in some cases the MREL extends beyond the scope and the level required under the international standard. In relation to the nature of the requirement, the MREL framework is characterized by a significant degree of complexity and the discretionary powers assigned upon resolution authorities. Excluding the Pillar 1 MREL applicable to G-SIBs and “top-tier banks”, there is no other single MREL-related requirement that is clear about which banks it applies to and what the level thereof is. All other requirements are subject to decisions taken by resolution authorities, mostly based on unclear criteria. Hence, resolution authorities have extensive powers to decide on the scope of requirements (e.g. Pillar 1 MREL, Pillar 2 MREL, subordination requirement, internal MREL) and other critical aspects (e.g. transitional period for Pillar 2 MREL, redemption of MREL-eligible liabilities, measures to address a breach of the MREL).
2019年通过的“银行业改革一揽子计划”(CRR2、CRD4、BRRD2、SRMR2)导致了自有资金和合格负债最低要求(MREL)的监管框架等方面的重大变化。修订后的框架旨在将金融稳定委员会(FSB)通过的关于总损失吸收能力(TLAC)的规则引入欧盟法律,并解决前框架的缺陷。关于新框架带来的新奇之处,最重要的是为全球系统重要性银行(g - sib)和其他大型银行引入了最低和固定的要求(支柱1 MREL)。与此同时,所有银行仍须遵守银行特定要求(支柱2 MREL),修订后的框架并未对确定方法进行重大修订。在实践中,银行必须达到的MREL目标是第一支柱MREL和银行特定的第二支柱MREL中较高的一个。修订框架的其他关键要素涉及银行的义务,即使用从属于排除(或可能被排除)内部纾困(从属要求)的负债的工具覆盖MREL的很大一部分,为处置实体的子公司引入内部MREL,以及建立符合MREL资格的负债的统一标准。此外,修订后的规则澄清了前框架的几个方面,包括银行满足MREL的最后期限、MREL合格负债的赎回以及处理违反MREL的措施。本文分析了上述修订后的MREL框架的关键要素,并评估了其与TLAC标准的一致性,以及由于其复杂性和提供给决议当局的自由裁量权而可能产生的影响。关于第一点,分析表明,将TLAC规则转换为欧盟法律不仅达到了一致性的目标,而且在某些情况下,MREL超出了国际标准所要求的范围和水平。就要求的性质而言,MREL框架的特点是相当复杂,并赋予决议机构自由裁量权。除适用于g - sib和“顶级银行”的第一支柱MREL外,没有其他单一的MREL相关规定明确规定适用于哪些银行及其级别。所有其他要求都取决于决议机构作出的决定,这些决定大多基于不明确的标准。因此,处置机构拥有广泛的权力来决定要求的范围(例如第1支柱MREL、第2支柱MREL、从属要求、内部MREL)和其他关键方面(例如第2支柱MREL的过渡期、符合MREL条件的负债的赎回、解决违反MREL的措施)。该框架的自由裁量性质允许决议当局以不同的方式将MREL规则转化为其政策,从而导致MREL在整个欧盟的不同应用。此外,自由裁量权造成了银行必须满足的要求的模糊性,即使它们处于同一决议机构的职权范围内。因此,这些安排给银行和投资者在适用要求、MREL需求和满足这些需求所需的资源方面带来了不确定性。
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引用次数: 1
Sovereign Portfolio Composition and Bank Risk 主权投资组合构成与银行风险
Pub Date : 2020-08-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3668976
S. Baziki, M. Nieto, Rima Turk-Ariss
This paper presents evidence on the likely composition effects of sovereign portfolios on two accounting based measures of banks’ ex-post risk profile, using granular data by the European Banking Authority. Our study period covers from 2009 to 2018. We find that banks located in European countries with high sovereign credit risk have riskier balance sheets. Also, banks holding a higher proportion of securities issued by a crisis sovereign are riskier than those with lower exposure to those countries. Whereas holding of government securities of the country where the bank is incorporated does not by itself increase ex-post bank risk, banks are riskier when they hold a higher proportion of these securities and the bank is domicile in a high credit risk sovereign country. Finally, banks that received government capital injections show higher risk profile than those banks that did not receive capital support. Our results lend support to central bank interventions to limit the increase in sovereign risk and limit the negative bank sovereign-bank feedback loop.
本文利用欧洲银行管理局(European Banking Authority)提供的细粒度数据,展示了主权投资组合对两种基于会计的银行事后风险概况度量的可能构成效应的证据。我们的研究时间为2009年至2018年。我们发现,位于主权信用风险较高的欧洲国家的银行资产负债表风险较大。此外,持有危机主权国家发行的证券比例较高的银行,其风险要高于对这些国家敞口较小的银行。虽然持有银行注册地所在国的政府证券本身并不会增加事后风险,但当银行持有这些证券的比例较高且银行注册地位于信用风险较高的主权国家时,银行的风险就会增加。最后,接受政府注资的银行比没有接受注资的银行表现出更高的风险状况。我们的研究结果为央行干预提供了支持,以限制主权风险的增加,并限制银行-银行负反馈循环。
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of the IRB Approach on the Relationship Between the Cost of Credit for Public Companies and Financial Market Conditions IRB方法对上市公司信贷成本与金融市场状况关系的影响
Pub Date : 2020-07-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3680593
Raffaele Gallo
This paper examines whether the regulatory approach adopted by banks to calculate capital requirements has a different impact on the loan rates for public and private companies when financial market conditions change. Using Italian data for the period 2008-18, the analysis documents that the adoption of the internal ratings-based (IRB) approach has led to a significantly greater sensitivity of the loan rates applied to public companies to financial market conditions, proxied by the VSTOXX index. For credit granted by IRB banks, being public is associated with a significant loan cost advantage when the level of financial instability is low. However, when VSTOXX rises, public companies experience a greater increase in loan rates than private firms; the effect is determined mostly by less capitalized IRB banks. In contrast, for credit granted by banks that adopt the standardized approach (SA), public borrowers do not benefit from a significant loan cost advantage compared with private ones, and a change in financial market conditions has a similar impact on loan rates for both types of companies.
本文考察了当金融市场条件发生变化时,银行采用的计算资本要求的监管方法是否对上市公司和私营公司的贷款利率产生不同的影响。利用意大利2008-18年期间的数据,该分析表明,采用基于内部评级(IRB)的方法导致上市公司的贷款利率对以VSTOXX指数为代表的金融市场状况具有更大的敏感性。对于内部审核银行发放的信贷,当金融不稳定水平较低时,上市与显著的贷款成本优势有关。然而,当VSTOXX指数上升时,上市公司的贷款利率增幅大于私营公司;这种影响主要是由资本较少的内部审核银行决定的。相比之下,对于采用标准化方法(SA)的银行发放的信贷,与私人借款人相比,公共借款人并没有从显著的贷款成本优势中受益,金融市场条件的变化对两类公司的贷款利率有类似的影响。
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引用次数: 22
The Joint Impact of Bank Capital and Funding Liquidity on the Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel 银行资本和资金流动性对货币政策风险承担渠道的共同影响
Pub Date : 2020-07-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3650902
Bruno De Menna
Despite an extensive literature on the risk–taking channel of monetary policy, the joint impact of bank capital and deposits on the latter remains poorly documented. Yet that prospect is essential for monetary policy taking action under the Basel III framework involving concomitant capital and funding liquidity standards. Using data on euro area from 1999 to 2018 and triple interactions between monetary policy, equity and funding liquidity, we shed light on a "crowding–out of deposits" effect prior to the 2008 GFC which supports the need for simultaneous capital and funding liquidity ratios to mitigate the monetary transmission to bank credit risk. Interestingly, our findings also highlight a missing "crowding–out of deposits" effect amongst poorly efficient banks in the aftermath of the GFC. As a result, a trade-off arises between financial stability and increased funding liquidity for these financial intermediaries, making a special treatment required for inefficient banks operating in a low interest rate environment. These results challenge the implementation of uniform funding liquidity requirements across the euro area.
尽管有大量关于货币政策的风险承担渠道的文献,但银行资本和存款对后者的共同影响仍鲜有文献记载。然而,这一前景对于在《巴塞尔协议III》框架下采取货币政策至关重要,该框架涉及附带的资本和融资流动性标准。利用1999年至2018年欧元区的数据以及货币政策、股权和融资流动性之间的三重相互作用,我们揭示了2008年全球金融危机之前的“挤兑存款”效应,这支持了同时要求资本和融资流动性比率以减轻货币向银行信贷风险传导的必要性。有趣的是,我们的研究结果还强调,在全球金融危机之后,效率低下的银行中存在一种缺失的“挤兑存款”效应。因此,在金融稳定和增加这些金融中介机构的资金流动性之间产生了一种权衡,需要对在低利率环境下运营的效率低下的银行进行特殊处理。这些结果对在整个欧元区实施统一的资金流动性要求提出了挑战。
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引用次数: 0
The Response of the European Central Bank to the Current Pandemic Crisis: Monetary Policy and Prudential Banking Supervision Decisions 欧洲中央银行对当前流行病危机的反应:货币政策和审慎银行监管决定
Pub Date : 2020-06-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3650370
C. Gortsos
Immediately after the outbreak of the current pandemic crisis, the EU developed a (rather) consistent strategy, by taking measures in order to deal with health emergency needs, support economic activity and employment, preserve monetary and financial stability and prepare the ground for recovery; these contain a combination of government fiscal stimuli (with extensive resort to the principle of solidarity), emergency liquidity and monetary policy measures and measures relating to financial stability. After briefly reviewing all these measures from a systematic point of view, the present article further analyses the role of the European Central Bank (ECB) during the first phase of this crisis, both in its capacity as a monetary authority within the Eurosystem and in its capacity as prudential banking supervisory authority within the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), with particular emphasis on the treatment of non-performing loans (NPLs). Its specific contribution to financial macro-prudential oversight within European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) is also highlighted.
在当前大流行病危机爆发后,欧盟立即制定了一项(相当)一致的战略,采取措施应对卫生紧急需求,支持经济活动和就业,维护货币和金融稳定,并为复苏做好准备;这些措施包括政府财政刺激(广泛采用团结原则)、紧急流动性和货币政策措施以及与金融稳定有关的措施。在从系统的角度简要回顾了所有这些措施之后,本文进一步分析了欧洲中央银行(ECB)在本次危机第一阶段的作用,既作为欧元体系内的货币当局,也作为单一监管机制(SSM)内的审慎银行监管机构,特别强调了不良贷款(NPLs)的处理。它对欧洲系统风险委员会(ESRB)内部金融宏观审慎监管的具体贡献也得到了强调。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
ERN: Banking & Monetary Policy (Topic)
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