This paper aims to reassess the performances of inflation targeting adopted by emerging ASEAN countries, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, by examining their monetary policy rules, both through generalized-method-of-moments (GMM) estimations of policy reaction functions and through Bayesian estimations of the New Keynesian dynamic-stochastic-general-equilibrium (DSGE) model. The main findings are summarized as follows. First, the GMM estimations identified inflation-responsive rules fulfilling the Taylor principle, with a forward-looking manner in Indonesia and Thailand and with a contemporaneous way in the Philippines. Second, the Bayesian estimations of the New Keynesian DSGE could reassure the GMM estimation results, as the former estimations produced consistent outcomes with the latter ones on the policy rate reactions to inflation with the Taylor principle.
{"title":"Taylor Principle under Inflation Targeting in Emerging ASEAN Economies: GMM and DSGE Approaches","authors":"Hiroyuki Taguchi, Kenichi Tamegawa, Mesa Wanasilp","doi":"10.47260/bae/723","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47260/bae/723","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to reassess the performances of inflation targeting adopted by emerging ASEAN countries, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, by examining their monetary policy rules, both through generalized-method-of-moments (GMM) estimations of policy reaction functions and through Bayesian estimations of the New Keynesian dynamic-stochastic-general-equilibrium (DSGE) model. The main findings are summarized as follows. First, the GMM estimations identified inflation-responsive rules fulfilling the Taylor principle, with a forward-looking manner in Indonesia and Thailand and with a contemporaneous way in the Philippines. Second, the Bayesian estimations of the New Keynesian DSGE could reassure the GMM estimation results, as the former estimations produced consistent outcomes with the latter ones on the policy rate reactions to inflation with the Taylor principle.","PeriodicalId":344946,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Applied Economics","volume":"292 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117048334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines whether public investment spending and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) enhance labor productivity growth in Argentina. Using annual data, it estimates a dynamic labor productivity function for the 1960-2015 period that incorporates the impact of public and private investment spending, education expenditures, the labor force, and export growth. It tests for both single and two-break unit root tests, as well as performing cointegration tests with an endogenously determined regime shift over the 1960-2015 period. Cointegration analysis suggests that a long-term relationship exists among the relevant variables. The error correction (EC) models suggest that (lagged) increases in public investment spending and education have a positive and significant effect on the rate of labor productivity growth Also, the model is estimated for a shorter period (1970-2015) to capture the impact of inward FDI flows. The estimates suggest that (lagged) FDI flows have a positive and significant impact on labor productivity growth, while increases in the labor force have a negative effect. From a policy standpoint, the findings call into question the politically expedient policy in many Latin American countries, including Argentina during the 1990s and 2000s, of disproportionately reducing public capital expenditures on education and infrastructure to meet reductions in the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP. The results give further support to pro-investment and pro-growth policies designed to promote public investment spending and attract inward FDI flows.
{"title":"Public and Foreign Investment Spending in the Argentine Case. \u0000A Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks, 1960-2015.","authors":"Miguel Ramírez","doi":"10.47260/bae/724","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47260/bae/724","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines whether public investment spending and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) enhance labor productivity growth in Argentina. Using annual data, it estimates a dynamic labor productivity function for the 1960-2015 period that incorporates the impact of public and private investment spending, education expenditures, the labor force, and export growth. It tests for both single and two-break unit root tests, as well as performing cointegration tests with an endogenously determined regime shift over the 1960-2015 period. Cointegration analysis suggests that a long-term relationship exists among the relevant variables. The error correction (EC) models suggest that (lagged) increases in public investment spending and education have a positive and significant effect on the rate of labor productivity growth Also, the model is estimated for a shorter period (1970-2015) to capture the impact of inward FDI flows. The estimates suggest that (lagged) FDI flows have a positive and significant impact on labor productivity growth, while increases in the labor force have a negative effect. From a policy standpoint, the findings call into question the politically expedient policy in many Latin American countries, including Argentina during the 1990s and 2000s, of disproportionately reducing public capital expenditures on education and infrastructure to meet reductions in the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP. The results give further support to pro-investment and pro-growth policies designed to promote public investment spending and attract inward FDI flows.","PeriodicalId":344946,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Applied Economics","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131170443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jean-Charles Marin, Bryan B-Trudel, K. Zaras, M. Sylla
The objectives of this article is to target poverty using Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA) to help the United Nation’s Countries develop objectives for sustainable development. There are 12 variables divided into 2 perspectives. The first is an economical and technological perspective composed of 6 variables. The second is a sociological and political perspective composed of 6 variables. The methodology proposed classifies all the United Nation’s countries according to three different categories: [A] Developed countries; [B] Emerging economies that need support to acquire category A status; [C] Under Developed countries ranked the lowest and needing special support with regard to the criterion or criteria considered. Using this classification, DRSA provides decision rules to explain the classification and indicating precisely what are the conditions to be part of a higher category. Also, the results indicate what are the conditions to be part of the Under Developed countries category and therefore helps targeting poverty and proposing, at the same time, objectives to improve this classification. Finally, we used Multiple Linear Regressions with selected decision rules to test selected decision rules as the Gross National Income per capita as the dependent variable.
{"title":"Targeting Poverty and Developing Sustainable Development \u0000Objectives for the United Nation’s Countries using a Systematic \u0000Approach Combining DRSA and Multiple Linear Regressions","authors":"Jean-Charles Marin, Bryan B-Trudel, K. Zaras, M. Sylla","doi":"10.47260/bae/721","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47260/bae/721","url":null,"abstract":"The objectives of this article is to target poverty using Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA) to help the United Nation’s Countries develop objectives for sustainable development. There are 12 variables divided into 2 perspectives. The first is an economical and technological perspective composed of 6 variables. The second is a sociological and political perspective composed of 6 variables. The methodology proposed classifies all the United Nation’s countries according to three different categories: [A] Developed countries; [B] Emerging economies that need support to acquire category A status; [C] Under Developed countries ranked the lowest and needing special support with regard to the criterion or criteria considered. Using this classification, DRSA provides decision rules to explain the classification and indicating precisely what are the conditions to be part of a higher category. Also, the results indicate what are the conditions to be part of the Under Developed countries category and therefore helps targeting poverty and proposing, at the same time, objectives to improve this classification. Finally, we used Multiple Linear Regressions with selected decision rules to test selected decision rules as the Gross National Income per capita as the dependent variable.","PeriodicalId":344946,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Applied Economics","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115583604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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