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Economic Effects of Inward Foreign Direct Investment in Myanmar 外商直接投资对缅甸的经济影响
Pub Date : 2020-10-22 DOI: 10.47260/bae/7214
Thet Mon Soe
This paper aims to examine the effects of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth and domestic investment at the regional-level and sectoral-levels of Myanmar economy, by applying a panel vector-autoregressive model framework. The major research questions are twofold: whether inward FDI causes economic growth or economic growth attracts inward FDI, and whether inward FDI crowds in or crowds out domestic investment. The main findings are summarized as follows. In the regional level analysis, there is a difference in the FDI-economic growth relationship between the FDI-intensive region and the FDI-less-intensive one. In the FDI-intensive region, the bidirectional FDI-economic growth relationship is found, supporting the both hypotheses of FDI-driven growth and growth-driven FDI, while the FDI-driven growth effect is larger than the growth-driven FDI one. In the FDI-less-intensive region, on the other hand, FDI deteriorates economic growth whereas economic growth still induces FDI. The difference in the FDI-economic growth relationship between the regions might come from the gap in agglomeration effects. In the sectoral level analysis, the crowd-in effect of FDI on domestic investment is found in the non-oil and gas sectors, since the FDI in the oil and gas sector has less linkages to domestic investment.
本文旨在通过应用面板向量自回归模型框架,从区域和部门层面考察外来直接投资(FDI)对缅甸经济增长和国内投资的影响。主要的研究问题有两个:FDI流入是导致经济增长还是经济增长吸引FDI流入,FDI流入是挤占国内投资还是挤出国内投资。主要研究结果总结如下:在区域层面分析中,fdi密集地区与fdi不密集地区的fdi -经济增长关系存在差异。在FDI密集地区,FDI与经济增长存在双向关系,支持FDI驱动增长和增长驱动FDI两种假设,且FDI驱动增长的效应大于FDI驱动增长的效应。另一方面,在FDI密集度较低的地区,FDI恶化了经济增长,而经济增长仍然会吸引FDI。区域间fdi -经济增长关系的差异可能源于集聚效应的差异。在部门一级的分析中,外国直接投资对国内投资的拥挤效应出现在非石油和天然气部门,因为石油和天然气部门的外国直接投资与国内投资的联系较少。
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引用次数: 4
Have Stock Markets across the Globe Been Kidnapped by the Covid-19 Pandemic? 全球股市被Covid-19大流行绑架了吗?
Pub Date : 2020-10-10 DOI: 10.47260/BAE/7213
Huaibing Yu
Based on data of 6 major developed stock markets, this paper provides empirical evidences about how stock markets across the globe behave during the Covid-19 global pandemic. Evidences show that the movements of most stock market indices were individually dependent on the development of the Covid-19 pandemic in the corresponding countries during the pre-bottom period. However, this phenomenon largely faded away after stock markets bottomed out and entered into the recovery stage. Vector error correction model (VECM) confirms the cross-markets equilibrium during the Covid-19 pandemic and the majority of stock markets are expected to restore to new equilibriums relatively quickly if exogenous shocks are introduced in the future.
本文基于6个主要发达股市的数据,提供了新冠肺炎全球大流行期间全球股市表现的实证证据。有证据表明,在触底前阶段,大多数股市指数的走势都单独取决于相应国家的新冠肺炎疫情发展情况。然而,在股市触底并进入复苏阶段后,这种现象基本上消失了。向量误差修正模型(VECM)证实了Covid-19大流行期间的跨市场均衡,并且如果未来引入外源冲击,预计大多数股票市场将相对较快地恢复到新的均衡。
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引用次数: 2
Investing in mutual funds: are you paying for performance or for the ties of the manager? 投资共同基金:你是为业绩付费还是为基金经理的关系付费?
Pub Date : 2020-09-25 DOI: 10.47260/bae/7212
C. Siriopoulos, M. Skaperda
This study analyses the performance of US Mutual Funds, from the perspective of Long Memory (LM), exploring if the returns of MFs are systematic due to their active management or they are random. The sample was 200 US equity MFs, from four categories, Large Cap, Middle Cap, Small Cap and World Stock, both 1- and 5-stars rating funds according to Morning Star rating. The time period was starting between 1981 and 2006 and ending 2016. Rescaled Range Analysis (R/S) employed for the Hurst exponent estimation, so to detect LM. Using Surrogate Data Analysis (SDA), the study was extended to Hurst exponent estimation for surrogate time series. The findings suggest that the selection of a MF presents a lot of complexity for investors. The 5-star MFs, with high qualified, and so expensive managers, tend to achieve random returns, while the returns of 1-star MFs, are more systematic. These MFs have higher fees than the 5-star MFs, but the management fees paid are quite inferior. This leads to the conclusion, that it might be preferable to pay for gaining an almost the same, but systematic return than to pay for the ties of the manager.
本研究从长记忆(LM)的角度分析美国共同基金的表现,探讨基金的收益是由于其主动管理而具有系统性还是随机性。样本是200只美国股票型基金,来自四大类别:大盘股、中盘股、小盘股和世界股票,包括晨星评级的1星和5星基金。这段时间从1981年到2006年,到2016年结束。采用重尺度极差分析(rescale Range Analysis, R/S)对Hurst指数进行估计,从而检测LM。采用代理数据分析(SDA),将研究扩展到代理时间序列的Hurst指数估计。研究结果表明,MF的选择给投资者带来了很大的复杂性。拥有高素质、昂贵经理人的五星级基金往往实现随机回报,而一星级基金的回报则更为系统化。这些基金的收费高于五星级基金,但所支付的管理费却相当低。由此得出的结论是,为获得几乎相同的系统性回报而付费,可能比为经理人的关系付费更可取。
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引用次数: 4
The Impact of Regulatory Quality on the Nexus between Life Insurance Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Developing Countries 监管质量对寿险发展与经济增长关系的影响:来自欧洲发展中国家的证据
Pub Date : 2020-09-20 DOI: 10.47260/bae/7211
Gengnan Chiang, Chinpiao Liu
The purpose of this study is to explore whether the regulatory quality influences the relation between life insurance development and economic growth by applying a nonlinear panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model. Using the data from Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) to assess the soundness of regulatory quality, this paper finds that the relationship between life insurance development and economic growth is significantly positive in the countries with relatively better regulatory quality. Our findings not only indicate that sound regulatory quality could encourage the growth effect of life insurance sectors but also have far-reaching practical implications for other economies to realize regulatory quality should matter for the development of the economic growth.
本文采用非线性面板平滑过渡回归(PSTR)模型,探讨监管质量对寿险发展与经济增长关系的影响。本文利用全球治理指标(WGI)的数据对监管质量的稳健性进行评估,发现在监管质量相对较好的国家,寿险发展与经济增长之间存在显著的正相关关系。本文的研究结果不仅表明良好的监管质量可以促进寿险行业的增长效应,而且对其他经济体认识到监管质量对经济增长的重要性具有深远的现实意义。
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引用次数: 0
Liquidity buffers determinants in GCC’s Islamic banks 流动性缓冲了海湾合作委员会伊斯兰银行的决定因素
Pub Date : 2020-09-15 DOI: 10.47260/bae/7210
Amal Essayem, Wided Khiari, Azhaar Lajmi
The purpose of this paper is to understand determinants of liquidity buffers in the GCC’s Islamic banks. We apply the model of Bonner et al. (2005) on balanced panel data, bank specific data and annual balance sheet data for all reporting banks. The data cover a period of 8 years from 2004 until 2011 for 24 Islamic banks from GCC region that includes mainly Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait. Results show that liquidity buffers negatively related to the size of the bank, the capitalization is negatively related to liquidity buffers in Islamic banks in the GCC region and the ratio of deposits is negatively related to liquid assets holding in Islamic banks, but not statistically significant. In addition, we found a positive relationship between the profitability and liquidity buffers in Islamic banks of the GCC region. Finally, we found a different result when it comes to macroeconomic variables. First we noticed a negative impact of the inflation on liquidity buffers and second, a positive significant relationship between GDP real growth and liquidity buffers in Islamic banks in the GCC region. Our findings can serve as a tool for policy makers in the GCC region to adopt sounder strategies of liquidity management.
本文的目的是了解海湾合作委员会伊斯兰银行流动性缓冲的决定因素。我们将Bonner等人(2005)的模型应用于所有报告银行的平衡面板数据、银行特定数据和年度资产负债表数据。该数据涵盖了海湾合作委员会地区24家伊斯兰银行从2004年到2011年的8年时间,主要包括沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国、巴林和科威特。结果表明,流动性缓冲与银行规模负相关,资本化与海湾合作委员会地区伊斯兰银行的流动性缓冲负相关,存款比率与伊斯兰银行的流动资产持有负相关,但不具有统计学意义。此外,我们发现海湾合作委员会地区伊斯兰银行的盈利能力与流动性缓冲之间存在正相关关系。最后,在宏观经济变量方面,我们发现了不同的结果。首先,我们注意到通货膨胀对流动性缓冲的负面影响,其次,GCC地区伊斯兰银行的GDP实际增长与流动性缓冲之间存在显著的正相关关系。我们的研究结果可以作为海湾合作委员会地区政策制定者采取更健全的流动性管理策略的工具。
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引用次数: 1
Additional Transportation Costs benefit Consumer Surplus and Social Welfare in a Bilateral Duopoly 在双边双寡头垄断中,额外的运输成本有利于消费者剩余和社会福利
Pub Date : 2020-09-05 DOI: 10.47260/bae/729
SangHeon Han, Dongjoon Lee
This paper examines the location selection by retailers in a bilateral duopoly. We suppose that the location is unconstraint. We compare two cases. One case is that each retailer incurs its transportation costs in order to purchase goods from its manufacturer. Another case is that it does not pay the transportation costs. Our conclusions are two. One is that both retailers locate inside the city, when retailers incur the transportation costs. The other is that consumer surplus and social welfare is larger under retailers’ paying transportation costs than under retailers’ no-paying transportation costs.
本文研究了双边双寡头垄断下零售商的区位选择。我们假设位置是不受约束的。我们比较两种情况。一种情况是,每个零售商为了从制造商那里购买商品而产生运输成本。另一种情况是它不支付运输费用。我们的结论有两点。一是两家零售商都位于城市内,因此零售商需要承担运输成本。二是零售商支付运输成本下的消费者剩余和社会福利大于零售商不支付运输成本下的消费者剩余和社会福利。
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引用次数: 0
Price Stickiness under Stochastic Demand 随机需求下的价格粘性
Pub Date : 2020-08-25 DOI: 10.47260/bae/728
Wu Sheng-Yeh, Chen Guan-ru
This study develops a two-period model in which the manufacturer determines a price floor and sets production output prior to resolution of uncertainty. The closer the distance between the minimum price and the high-demand-state price, the higher the degree of price rigidity. Solving for the minimum resale price and production output, the model indicates that asymmetric price transmission could be a characteristic of competitive markets. The retail price in a highly concentrated retail market might be lower than that in a retail market with fierce competition. The relationship between price adjustments and the market competition suggests that the reason underlying price rigidity should be considered while formulating the antitrust and monetary policies.
本研究建立了一个两期模型,在此模型中,制造商在不确定性解决之前确定价格下限并设定生产产量。最低价格与高需求状态价格之间的距离越近,价格刚性程度越高。该模型求解了最小转售价格和生产产量,表明不对称价格传递可能是竞争市场的一个特征。在高度集中的零售市场中,零售价格可能低于竞争激烈的零售市场。价格调整与市场竞争的关系表明,在制定反垄断政策和货币政策时应考虑价格刚性的潜在原因。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of the size of tax evasion in Greece 估计希腊的逃税规模
Pub Date : 2020-08-20 DOI: 10.47260/bae/727
Anastasiou Athanasios, Kalamara Eleni, Kalligosfyris Charalampos
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the extent of tax evasion in Greece for the period 1980-2018. For this estimation we have chosen to apply an indirect method of approach to the issue, as developed by Tanzi, based on the assumption that estimating the size of the shadow economy can lead us to a safe measurement of the extent of tax evasion. More precisely, through the Currency Demand approach which is based on the basic assumption that activities under the shadow economy constitute a direct response of taxpayers to the increased tax burden and also that cash is mainly used to conduct such transactions and of the wealth derived from them, the size of the shadow economy was determined using the method of the University of Leicester research team and then the level of tax evasion was assessed by imposing an annual tax rate on it as a ratio of total tax revenue to Gross Domestic Product. The results showed a significant increase of the size of tax evasion during the period considered, while the model estimation showed that most of the tax evasion came from direct taxation.
本文的目的是估计1980-2018年期间希腊的逃税程度。对于这一估计,我们选择采用Tanzi提出的一种间接方法来解决这个问题,该方法基于这样一种假设,即对影子经济规模的估计可以让我们对逃税程度进行安全的衡量。更准确地说,通过货币需求方法,这种方法基于这样一个基本假设,即影子经济下的活动构成了纳税人对增加的税负的直接反应,而且现金主要用于进行此类交易和从中获得的财富,利用莱斯特大学研究小组的方法确定影子经济的规模,然后通过对其征收年度税率(占总税收收入与国内生产总值的比例)来评估逃税水平。结果显示,在考虑的时间段内,逃税规模显著增加,而模型估计显示,大部分逃税来自直接税。
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引用次数: 3
An Empirical Study of Some Driving Factors of CO2 Emissions: Evidence from Quantile Regression 二氧化碳排放驱动因素的实证研究:来自分位数回归的证据
Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI: 10.47260/bae/726
Y. Keho
A growing body of research has examined the determinants of CO2 emissions. This literature has used mean-based regression methods in which only the mean effects of covariates are estimated. In this paper, we use the quantile regression methodology for a panel of 45 countries to investigate whether or not the factors that drive pollution do so in the same way for high and low pollution countries. The Environmental Kuznets Curve is confirmed and the positive effect of economic development is larger in low pollution countries. Energy consumption and financial development increase CO2 emissions and their effects are larger in countries with lower levels of pollution. Industrialization increases pollution especially in countries with higher level of pollution. Openness to trade and urbanization are negatively related to emissions in low pollution countries. All these findings suggest that pollution control policies should be tailored differently across low and high pollution countries.
越来越多的研究调查了二氧化碳排放的决定因素。本文献使用基于均值的回归方法,其中仅估计协变量的均值效应。在本文中,我们对45个国家的面板使用分位数回归方法来调查驱动污染的因素是否以相同的方式在高污染和低污染的国家。环境库兹涅茨曲线得到证实,低污染国家经济发展的积极效应更大。能源消费和金融发展增加了二氧化碳排放,其影响在污染水平较低的国家更大。工业化加剧了污染,特别是在污染程度较高的国家。在低污染国家,贸易开放和城市化与排放呈负相关。所有这些发现都表明,污染控制政策应该在低污染国家和高污染国家之间进行不同的调整。
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引用次数: 2
Risk Affection and Transmission of News of Conditional Volatility from the Non-Life to Life Insurance Sector 风险影响及条件波动信息从非寿险向寿险的传递
Pub Date : 2020-06-20 DOI: 10.47260/bae/725
Apostolos Kiohos
Non- Life and Life Insurance companies are the main expedients of risk transfer and risk management procedure in the economy and the society. This paper examines, in eight worldwide advanced insurance markets, whether there are transmissions of news of conditional volatility from the non-life to life insurance sector. The reason is that, regularly, non-life insurance risks have higher volatility and they are less predictable than life insurance risks. A GJR - GARCH model is used to test these relationships for the period January 1st 1990 to June 28th 2019 using daily trading observations for each listed insurance index. The results suggest that the French and the Australian non-life insurance sectors influence their life insurance sectors to a greater extent than the other countries insurance indices under study. There is also evidence that the leverage effect indicates that bad news concerning the non-life insurance index shows a more intense impact on the volatility of the life insurance index than the good news in the majority of the countries under study. However, bad and good news are symmetrical in French and Australian insurance markets.
非寿险和寿险公司是经济和社会中风险转移和风险管理程序的主要工具。本文考察了在全球八个发达的保险市场中,是否有条件波动的消息从非寿险部门传递到寿险部门。原因是,通常情况下,非寿险风险具有更高的波动性,而且它们比寿险风险更难以预测。使用GJR - GARCH模型对1990年1月1日至2019年6月28日期间的每个上市保险指数进行每日交易观察,以检验这些关系。结果表明,法国和澳大利亚的非寿险行业对其寿险行业的影响程度大于研究中的其他国家的保险指数。还有证据表明,杠杆效应表明,在研究的大多数国家中,有关非寿险指数的坏消息对寿险指数波动的影响比好消息更大。然而,在法国和澳大利亚的保险市场,坏消息和好消息是对称的。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Bulletin of Applied Economics
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