Jacob Haqq-Misra, Eric T. Wolf, Thomas J. Fauchez and Ravi K. Kopparapu
This paper highlights methods from geostatistics that are relevant to the interpretation, intercomparison, and synthesis of atmospheric model data, with a specific application to exoplanet atmospheric modeling. Climate models are increasingly used to study theoretical and observational properties of exoplanets, which include a hierarchy of models ranging from fast and idealized models to those that are slower but more comprehensive. Exploring large parameter spaces with computationally expensive models can be accomplished with sparse sampling techniques, but analyzing such sparse samples can pose challenges for conventional interpolation functions. Ordinary kriging is a statistical method for describing the spatial distribution of a data set in terms of the variogram function, which can be used to interpolate sparse samples across any number of dimensions. Variograms themselves may also be useful diagnostic tools for describing the spatial distribution of model data in exoplanet atmospheric model intercomparison projects. Universal kriging is another method that can synthesize data calculated by models of different complexity, which can be used to combine sparse samples of data from slow models with larger samples of data from fast models. Ordinary and universal kriging can also provide a way to synthesize model predictions with sparse samples of exoplanet observations and may have other applications in exoplanet science.
{"title":"Interpolation and Synthesis of Sparse Samples in Exoplanet Atmospheric Modeling","authors":"Jacob Haqq-Misra, Eric T. Wolf, Thomas J. Fauchez and Ravi K. Kopparapu","doi":"10.3847/psj/ad50a7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3847/psj/ad50a7","url":null,"abstract":"This paper highlights methods from geostatistics that are relevant to the interpretation, intercomparison, and synthesis of atmospheric model data, with a specific application to exoplanet atmospheric modeling. Climate models are increasingly used to study theoretical and observational properties of exoplanets, which include a hierarchy of models ranging from fast and idealized models to those that are slower but more comprehensive. Exploring large parameter spaces with computationally expensive models can be accomplished with sparse sampling techniques, but analyzing such sparse samples can pose challenges for conventional interpolation functions. Ordinary kriging is a statistical method for describing the spatial distribution of a data set in terms of the variogram function, which can be used to interpolate sparse samples across any number of dimensions. Variograms themselves may also be useful diagnostic tools for describing the spatial distribution of model data in exoplanet atmospheric model intercomparison projects. Universal kriging is another method that can synthesize data calculated by models of different complexity, which can be used to combine sparse samples of data from slow models with larger samples of data from fast models. Ordinary and universal kriging can also provide a way to synthesize model predictions with sparse samples of exoplanet observations and may have other applications in exoplanet science.","PeriodicalId":34524,"journal":{"name":"The Planetary Science Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Megan T. Gialluca, Rory Barnes, Victoria S. Meadows, Rodolfo Garcia, Jessica Birky, Eric Agol
JWST observations of the seven-planet TRAPPIST-1 system will provide an excellent opportunity to test outcomes of stellar-driven evolution of terrestrial planetary atmospheres, including atmospheric escape, ocean loss, and abiotic oxygen production. While most previous studies use a single luminosity evolution for the host star, we incorporate observational uncertainties in stellar mass, luminosity evolution, system age, and planetary parameters to statistically explore the plausible range of planetary atmospheric escape outcomes. We present probabilistic distributions of total water loss and oxygen production as a function of initial water content, for planets with initially pure water atmospheres and no interior–atmosphere exchange. We find that the interior planets are desiccated for initial water contents below 50 Earth oceans. For TRAPPIST-1e, f, g, and h, we report maximum water-loss ranges of