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THE CONTAGION EFFECT IN EUROPE: A DCC GARH APPROACH 欧洲的传染效应:DCC garh方法
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31410/limen.2019.73
Paulo Alexandre, Paula Heliodoro, R. Dias
This research analyses the co-movements between sovereign debt markets, and the stock markets of Germany, Portugal, and Greece, in the period 2009:10 – 2015:07. It aims to provide answers to two questions, namely, whether: i) Was there contagion between bond markets and the Eurozone stock markets? ii) Did the financial sector show contagion? The study used GARCH-DCC econometric models, with the purpose of estimating the dynamic correlation between the markets, using daily data of 10-year OT yields for Greece and Portugal, as well as price indices for Portugal (PSI-20, PSI Financial), and Germany (DAX-30 and DAX Financial). In addition, we also evaluate the variation of the correlation in each of the identified crisis periods against a reference period (pre-crisis). The results suggest contagion from the Greek sovereign debt market to the Portuguese and German stock markets. We found that the Portuguese debt market influenced the German stock market, in a market and financial sector context. In conclusion, it is assumed that the results reveal some understanding of the behaviour of investors under extreme market conditions and contribute to the understanding of the connection between sovereign risk and financial sector risk by market agents, including regulators and policy-makers, who seek to ensure the stability of the international financial system, of which the stock markets are a part of.
本研究分析了2009:10 - 2015:07期间德国、葡萄牙和希腊主权债务市场与股票市场之间的协同运动。它旨在回答两个问题,即:1)债券市场和欧元区股市之间是否存在传染?ii)金融部门是否出现了传染?该研究使用GARCH-DCC计量经济模型,目的是估计市场之间的动态相关性,使用希腊和葡萄牙的10年期国债收益率的每日数据,以及葡萄牙(PSI-20, PSI Financial)和德国(DAX-30和DAX Financial)的价格指数。此外,我们还评估了每个确定的危机时期与参考时期(危机前)的相关性变化。结果表明,危机正从希腊主权债务市场蔓延至葡萄牙和德国股市。我们发现,在市场和金融部门的背景下,葡萄牙债务市场影响了德国股市。总之,假设结果揭示了对极端市场条件下投资者行为的一些理解,并有助于理解主权风险与金融部门风险之间的联系,包括监管机构和政策制定者,他们寻求确保国际金融体系的稳定,股票市场是其中的一部分。
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引用次数: 10
PLANNING IN CONTEMPORARY MANAGEMENT CONDITIONS 当代管理条件下的规划
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31410/limen.2019.15
Slobodan N. Bracanović
Planning has increasingly been gaining in significance in a more recent period and at all levels. There is also room for developing more perfect and newer forms of planning. The market is becoming an economic space both as the subject matter of contemporary business planning and the subject matter of a contemporary plan. The management structure (i.e. management) is not only faced with dilemmas regarded as either plan or market dilemmas, but rather as both plan and market dilemmas.
在最近一段时期内,规划在各级的重要性日益增加。还有发展更完善和更新的规划形式的空间。市场正在成为一个经济空间,既是当代商业规划的主题,也是当代计划的主题。管理结构(即管理层)面临的困境不仅是计划困境或市场困境,而是计划困境和市场困境并存。
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引用次数: 0
THE BULGARIAN DEFENCE TECHNOLOGICAL AND INDUSTRIAL BASE AND THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF BULGARIA 保加利亚的国防技术和工业基础以及保加利亚的国家安全
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31410/limen.2019.43
I. Ivanov
The scale of production and export of defence-related and special production from Bulgaria has increased steadily over recent years. The Export of this group of goods is expected to exceed the value of €1 billion at the end of 2019. The Bulgarian Defence Technological and Industrial Base (BDTIB) is making a significant contribution to this process. The purpose of the author is to present summarized results of an analysis of the challenges to the functioning and development of this important for the Bulgarian economy industrial sector. From a practical point of view, the results of the analysis would be particularly useful for decision-makers in the sector at the state and company level, researchers and other stakeholders. Significant opportunities and risks to the BDTIB have also been outlined in two main directions. The first one is related to the current situation on the specific and highly competitive international markets for defence goods and services defined as very dynamic and rapidly changing. Bulgarian enterprises are forced to actively compete for their presence in these markets without any state support. The second challenge ahead of BDTIB is the dismal results of the overall process of modernizing the Bulgarian security sector. BDTIB continues to seek its adequate role in the national modernization projects for the Bulgarian Armed Forces and Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Bulgaria. For all these reasons, the results of BDTIB’s activities in recent years have contributed indirectly to Bulgaria’s national security.
近年来,保加利亚国防相关产品和特殊产品的生产和出口规模稳步增加。预计到2019年底,这类商品的出口额将超过10亿欧元。保加利亚国防技术和工业基地正在对这一进程作出重大贡献。作者的目的是提出对这一对保加利亚经济重要的工业部门的运作和发展所面临的挑战进行分析的总结结果。从实际的角度来看,分析的结果对国家和公司层面的行业决策者、研究人员和其他利益相关者特别有用。BDTIB面临的重大机遇和风险也从两个主要方向进行了概述。第一个问题涉及国防货物和服务的具体和高度竞争的国际市场目前的情况,这些市场被定义为非常有活力和迅速变化。保加利亚企业在没有任何国家支持的情况下,被迫在这些市场积极竞争。BDTIB面临的第二个挑战是保加利亚安全部门现代化的整个进程的令人沮丧的结果。BDTIB继续寻求在保加利亚武装部队和保加利亚共和国内政部的国家现代化项目中发挥适当的作用。由于所有这些原因,近年来该司活动的结果间接地促进了保加利亚的国家安全。
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引用次数: 0
POLITICAL “IDEALISTIC” LEADERSHIP AND THE RULE OF LAW 政治上的“理想主义”领导和法治
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31410/limen.2019.141
Larisa Vasileska
One of the most difficult concepts to define and give universal definition certainly is the concept of “leadership,” because it is applicable in every aspect of our life. The orthodox meaning of leadership is “ for individual within a group to lead and others to follow.” However, here it addresses the dilemma of where, exactly the quality of the “leader” or the “leadership” resides. Is it morality important for leadership? What about the concept of “ethical consciousness” of a leader? Almost every politician we hear today regularly extols the rule of law. However, what does the rule of law actually mean? We need leaders who better understand the rule of law. This paper will try to find answers to very thorny question: If we define leadership as value-based virtue, which values matter most? In addition, how do we deal with the most sensitive decisions made by governments, which are currently incompatible with the definitions of the rule of law and international law.
“领导力”这个概念无疑是最难定义的概念之一,因为它适用于我们生活的方方面面。领导的正统意义是“一个群体中的个人领导,其他人跟随”。然而,在这里,它解决了“领导者”或“领导力”的品质究竟在哪里的困境。道德对领导力很重要吗?那么领导者的“道德意识”这个概念呢?我们今天听到的几乎每一位政治家都经常赞美法治。然而,法治究竟意味着什么?我们需要更了解法治的领导人。本文将试图找到一个非常棘手的问题的答案:如果我们将领导力定义为基于价值的美德,那么哪些价值观最重要?此外,我们如何处理政府做出的最敏感的决定,这些决定目前与法治和国际法的定义不相容。
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引用次数: 0
IDENTIFICATION OF CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE BLOCKCHAIN PROJECTS IN THE SMART CITIES 确定在智慧城市实施区块链项目的关键成功因素
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31410/limen.2019.129
Z. Ćirić, O. Sedlak, Stojan Ivanišević, Bulevar cara Lazara Novi Sad Serbia Jkp Informatika Novi Sad
The primary objective of this paper is to conduct a systematic literature review to analyse contemporary scientific literature to determine a list of blockchain IT system implementation critical success factors. Scientific literature is available for the critical success factors that are impacting implementation for IT projects in general; however, it is of scientific and practical importance to whether these factors and their influence change when it comes to blockchain projects and even to determine does some additional critical success factors impact the success of the blockchain information system implementation in the smart cities.
本文的主要目的是进行系统的文献综述,分析当代科学文献,以确定b区块链IT系统实施关键成功因素的列表。通常影响IT项目实现的关键成功因素有科学文献;然而,当涉及到区块链项目时,这些因素及其影响是否会发生变化,甚至确定一些额外的关键成功因素是否会影响智慧城市区块链信息系统实施的成功,这具有科学和现实意义。
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引用次数: 4
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MICROFINANCE AND TOURISM (CASE OF ALBANIA) 小额信贷与旅游业的关系(以阿尔巴尼亚为例)
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31410/limen.2019.165
Forcim Kola, Bardhyl Ceku, Semiha Loca
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the link between microfinance and tourism, explaining how microfinance institutions (MFIs) in Albania are supporting the development of tourism through providing microcredit to small tourism enterprises. Microfinance can offer low income people specifically those called un-bankable, the necessary financial support to enter entrepreneurship activities in tourism sector. On the other side, tourism development can contribute to reduce poverty through economic development especially in rural and mountainous areas. Primary data are used to show a descriptive panorama of the two main variables and a casual analysis is done through secondary data on tourism and microcredit sector in Albania. Using a Linear Regression Analysis, it is evidenced a relationship between the two analysed variables.
本文的目的是分析小额信贷与旅游业之间的联系,解释阿尔巴尼亚的小额信贷机构(mfi)如何通过向小型旅游企业提供小额信贷来支持旅游业的发展。小额信贷可以为低收入人群,特别是那些被称为无法获得银行贷款的人,提供必要的资金支持,以进入旅游业的创业活动。另一方面,旅游业的发展可以通过经济发展来减少贫困,特别是在农村和山区。主要数据用于显示两个主要变量的描述性全景,并通过关于阿尔巴尼亚旅游业和小额信贷部门的次要数据进行了临时分析。使用线性回归分析,证明了两个分析变量之间的关系。
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引用次数: 0
MANAGER OF TODAY AND OF THE FUTURE: E-MANAGER 今天和未来的管理者:电子管理者
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31410/limen.2019.7
Jasmina Štarc
The goal of this article is to consider which skills a manager has/will need and will use if he wants to achieve above-average results. Today, the manager must be focused on himself, be responsible for his own knowledge and development, and at the same time take full responsibility for the advancement and development of all employees. A good manager hears what others do not hear, sees what others do not see, and feels what others do not feel. The most successful manager is the one who has an open mind, is sincere, change-oriented, curious and creative. He is a master of soft skills that are based on relationships with everyone he interacts with and he masters the relationships with society. Today, in a time of constant change in technology, he must also have a well-developed computer literacy, since modern management of an organization is not possible without a highly developed computer information system.
本文的目标是考虑如果管理者想要达到高于平均水平的结果,他拥有/将需要并使用哪些技能。今天,管理者必须以自己为中心,对自己的知识和发展负责,同时对全体员工的进步和发展负全责。一个好的管理者能听到别人听不到的,能看到别人看不见的,能感受到别人感觉不到的。最成功的管理者是一个思想开放、真诚、求知欲强、富有创造力的人。他是软技能的大师,这些软技能是建立在与他交往的每个人的关系上的,他掌握了与社会的关系。在技术不断变化的今天,他还必须具备良好的计算机素养,因为没有高度发达的计算机信息系统,一个组织的现代管理是不可能的。
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引用次数: 0
THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING ABUSIVE CLAUSES IN THE CREDIT CONTRACTS, REGARDED AS ADHESION CONTRACTS 作为附着式合同的信用合同中滥用条款的理论与实践思考
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31410/limen.2019.81
Diana Gorun, Mirela Niculae, Beatrice-Tanta Strat
Credit agreements are regarded as adhesion contracts, containing clauses to which the customer is obliged to accept, which can easily be defined as abusive. Because of their unpredicted and onerous effects, it was legally established the unpredictability in the adhesion contracts, which justified the intervention of the courts of instances to review or to adapt the contract according to the exceptional circumstances’ changes.
信用协议被视为附则合同,包含客户有义务接受的条款,这很容易被定义为滥用。由于其不可预见性和繁重的后果,法律上确立了附着性合同的不可预见性,这就为判例法院根据特殊情况的变化对合同进行审查或调整提供了正当理由。
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引用次数: 0
THE BULGARIAN INDUSTRY: THE STATE, DEVELOPMENT AND PROSPECTS OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY 保加利亚工业:产业政策的现状、发展和前景
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31410/limen.2019.31
N. Sterev
Bulgarian industry has the potential to become a crisis balancer as it reduces the negative impact of a financial crisis and drives the contemporary economic growth. In addition, not only the Bulgarian but European and world industries are developing at a rate unknown at this time. In just one generation, we have witnessed two major industrial revolutions (Industry 3.0 and Industry 4.0, respectively) and we are on the birth-stage of the next one (Industry 5.0). The success of an industrial enterprise, the success of the entire industry requires flexibility, adaptability and, above all, institutional support. So, the paper is addressed to research the following questions: 1. How the global industry is developing, 2. Where is the Bulgarian industry located and what are the opportunities for the development of Industry 4.0 via Internet 4.0, 3. What should be the next step in development of the Bulgarian industry.
保加利亚工业有潜力成为危机平衡者,因为它减少了金融危机的负面影响,并推动了当代经济增长。此外,不仅保加利亚,而且欧洲和世界的工业正在以目前未知的速度发展。在短短一代人的时间里,我们见证了两次主要的工业革命(分别是工业3.0和工业4.0),我们正处于下一个工业革命(工业5.0)的诞生阶段。一个工业企业的成功,整个工业的成功都需要灵活性、适应性,最重要的是需要制度的支持。因此,本文主要研究以下几个问题:1。全球产业如何发展?2 .保加利亚工业在哪里?通过互联网4.0发展工业4.0的机会是什么?保加利亚工业发展的下一步应该是什么?
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引用次数: 0
PROBLEMS OF RENOVATION OF URBAN TERRITORIES IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION 俄罗斯联邦城市领土的改造问题
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31410/limen.2019.103
S. Maksimov, G. Zabunov
The aim of the authors is to outline the main problems of urban renewal in contemporary Russia. The reasons for the transition to renovation as the main direction of urban development are revealed: changing structure of the economy, aging of the existing real estate, changing the real estate needs of the population and business. The experience of implementing renewal programs in developed countries such as the UK and Japan as well as in new EU member states such as Bulgaria is analyzed. The importance of public-private partnerships for successful urban renewal programs is emphasized.
作者的目的是概述当代俄罗斯城市更新的主要问题。揭示了以改造为城市发展主要方向转变的原因:经济结构的变化,现有房地产的老化,人口和商业对房地产需求的变化。分析了英国、日本等发达国家和保加利亚等欧盟新成员国实施更新计划的经验。强调了公私伙伴关系对成功的城市更新计划的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
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5th LIMEN Conference Proceedings (part of LIMEN conference collection)
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