Pub Date : 2020-10-23DOI: 10.1049/iet-smc.2020.0084
David Cleevely CBE FREng
<p>There are no smart cities on our planet. Some may claim to be smart, but none of them come close to implementing a fraction of the technology and systems set out by this journal or indeed by any other journals and organisations dedicated to promoting the concept.</p><p>Perhaps it is time we asked ourselves why this is the case. After all the idea has been around for decades and in that time we have seen revolutions sweep through manufacturing, retail and sectors such as telecoms and IT. There are plenty of technologies available for deployment. So are Smart Cities a bad idea? Is it that developing a Smart City just takes time? Or is there something preventing them from emerging?</p><p>I think something is preventing us from implementing the ideas embodied in the phrase ‘Smart City’ and unless we address it progress will be painfully slow or non-existent.</p><p>Eric Beinhocker in his book ‘The Origin of Wealth’ sets out three ingredients for economic growth: Technology, Governance and Business Models. He argues that you need all three to make progress. No amount of technology and entrepreneurial ambition will generate wealth if there are no property rights, laws or regulations governing the market. And if the Business Model doesn't make sense then you can't create companies and generate new value. We are missing both the Governance and the Business Models for Smart Cities.</p><p>Let's look at Governance first. Cities are a complex mess of developers, businesses, private individuals, local government, and public institutions. Many of these interests have narrow goals. The role of Governance in this case is to align these narrow goals and to ensure that each actor bears the true cost and receives the true benefit. Technically this might seem straight forward. After all isn't it obvious that developers impose costs in terms of transport and services and should contribute accordingly?</p><p>It's not so simple. For example, an individual trying to drive to work will not consider the extra congestion they introduce (what economists call an externality). In some cities, congestion charging or other traffic management has been introduced so that the individuals make decisions which are better for the economy and society. In some places (including Cambridge UK where I live) the individual's right to choose to drive has been thought to be more important.</p><p>We are a long way from having governance models for cities which align incentives and have the various actors paying the true costs and receiving the true benefits. Without the market mechanisms and the regulations and standards by which such markets would operate, it is unlikely that anyone will develop long term viable business models. Without these business models, we will not see the investment needed to create Smart Cities.</p><p>In telecommunications, where I started my career, the blockages which prevented innovation were solved by creating markets which could operate on agreed standards. Li
我们的星球上没有智能城市。有些人可能会声称自己很聪明,但他们中没有一个人能够实现本杂志或其他致力于推广这一概念的期刊和组织所提出的技术和系统的一小部分。也许是时候问问我们自己为什么会这样了。毕竟,这个想法已经存在了几十年,在此期间,我们看到革命席卷了制造业、零售业以及电信和IT等行业。可供部署的技术有很多。那么,智慧城市是个坏主意吗?发展智慧城市需要时间吗?还是有什么东西阻止了它们的出现?我认为有些东西正在阻止我们实现“智慧城市”这个词所体现的理念,除非我们解决这个问题,否则进展将非常缓慢或根本不存在。埃里克·拜因霍克(Eric Beinhocker)在他的著作《财富的起源》(The Origin of Wealth)中提出了经济增长的三个要素:技术、治理和商业模式。他认为,要取得进步,你需要这三者都具备。如果没有产权、法律或监管市场的法规,再多的技术和创业雄心也不会产生财富。如果商业模式没有意义,那么你就无法创建公司并创造新的价值。我们缺少智慧城市的治理和商业模式。让我们先看看治理。城市是开发商、企业、个人、地方政府和公共机构的综合体。许多这些兴趣爱好的目标都很狭隘。在这种情况下,治理的作用是协调这些狭隘的目标,并确保每个参与者承担真正的成本并获得真正的收益。从技术上讲,这似乎很简单。毕竟,开发者在运输和服务方面施加成本,并相应地做出贡献,这不是很明显吗?事情没那么简单。例如,一个试图开车上班的人不会考虑他们带来的额外拥堵(经济学家称之为外部性)。在一些城市,已经引入了拥堵收费或其他交通管理,以便个人做出对经济和社会更好的决定。在一些地方(包括我居住的英国剑桥),人们认为个人选择开车的权利更为重要。我们距离建立城市治理模式还有很长的路要走,这种模式要协调激励措施,让不同的参与者支付真正的成本并获得真正的收益。如果没有市场机制以及市场运作所依据的法规和标准,任何人都不可能开发出长期可行的商业模式。没有这些商业模式,我们将看不到创建智慧城市所需的投资。在我的职业生涯起步的电信业,阻碍创新的障碍通过创造可以按照商定标准运作的市场得到了解决。基于GSM标准的移动电话运营商许可就是一个例子。TCP/IP和万维网的诞生是另一个例子。尽管Brain Arthur在他的书《技术的本质》中解释了其中的一些,但很少有人预见到这些将如何为随后的创新爆炸创造条件。我们都可以设想一个零碳城市提供交通、就业、生活条件、健康、教育和生活质量的未来。我们都可以描述一些技术,以及它们如何被用来交付这些东西。我们知道,自动驾驶汽车将彻底改变公共和私人交通,也许会带来纯按需服务。但我们也知道,城市的物理布局可能导致规模不经济——洛杉矶20%的土地用于道路和停车场。我们如何确保土地使用和规划与交通相结合,从而获得更高效、更有力的结果?为像城市这样复杂的东西创建一个新的治理体系,比改革电信监管要困难一个数量级。我们将无法像在其他地方那样迅速取得突破。但我们确实需要开始把城市视为一个复杂的系统,由在那里生活和工作的组织和个人的激励驱动,激励很少,外部性很大,需要建立基于标准和法规的新市场。风险很高,随着COVID的出现,风险甚至更高。城市是创新和创造财富的源泉。如果我们能够使城市高效、可持续地运作,并为在其中生活和工作的人们提供高质量的生活,那么我们就是在帮助确保长期繁荣。COVID凸显了我们在城市运营方面的两个弱点:我们的系统既缺乏弹性,也缺乏快速变化和适应的能力。
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