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Broken Windows Policing and Crime: Evidence from 80 Colombian Cities 破窗警务与犯罪:来自80个哥伦比亚城市的证据
Pub Date : 2021-09-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3917187
Daniel Mejía, Ervyn Norza, Santiago Tobón, Martín Vanegas-Arias
We study the effects of broken windows policing on crime using geo-located crime and arrest reports for 80 Colombian cities. Broadly defined, broken windows policing consists of intensifying arrests—sometimes for minor offenses—to deter potential criminals. To estimate causal effects, we build grids of 200 × 200 meters over the urban perimeter of all cities and produce event studies to look at the effects of shocks in police activity in the periods to follow. We use spikes in the number of arrests with no warrant—which are more likely associated with unplanned police presence—as a proxy for shocks in broken windows policing. As expected, we observe an increase in crimes during the shock period, as each arrest implies at least one crime report. In the following periods, crimes decrease both in the place of the arrests and the surroundings. With many treated grids and many places exposed to spillovers, these effects add up. On aggregate, the crime reduction offsets the observed increase during the shock period. Direct effects are more immediate and precise at low crime grids, but beneficial spillovers seem more relevant at crime hot spots. The effects of broken windows policing circumscribe to cities with low or moderate organized crime, consistent with criminal organizations planning their activities more systematically than disorganized criminals.
我们利用哥伦比亚80个城市的地理定位犯罪和逮捕报告,研究了破窗警务对犯罪的影响。从广义上讲,破窗警务包括加强逮捕——有时是针对轻微犯罪——以威慑潜在的罪犯。为了估计因果关系,我们在所有城市的城市周长上建立了200 × 200米的网格,并进行了事件研究,以观察在随后的时期内警察活动受到冲击的影响。我们使用无证逮捕数量的峰值——这更有可能与意外的警察出现有关——作为破窗警务的冲击的代理。正如预期的那样,我们观察到在冲击期间犯罪增加,因为每次逮捕都意味着至少有一起犯罪报告。在接下来的一段时间里,逮捕地点和周围的犯罪都减少了。由于许多经过处理的电网和许多地方受到溢出效应的影响,这些影响叠加在一起。总的来说,犯罪的减少抵消了休克时期观察到的增长。在低犯罪率地区,直接效应更为直接和精确,但在犯罪热点地区,有益的溢出效应似乎更为相关。破窗警务的影响仅限于有轻度或中度有组织犯罪的城市,这与犯罪组织比无组织犯罪分子更有系统地规划其活动相一致。
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引用次数: 0
La indemnización por condenas erróneas: una visión desde el derecho comparado (Reparation for Wrongful Convictions: A Perspective from Comparative Law) 错误定罪的赔偿:比较法的观点(错误定罪的赔偿:比较法的观点)
Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.4067/S0718-33992021000100220
Mauricio Duce
espanolReciente evidencia empirica, y desde hace tiempo la doctrina, sugieren que el mecanismo constitucional chileno de indemnizacion por errores judiciales es sumamente restrictivo, lo que dejaria desprotegidas a las victimas de estos errores. Producto de esta evaluacion negativa, se han presentado en los ultimos anos 10 proyectos de reforma constitucional al articulo 19 no 7 letra i) de la Constitucion. En este contexto, el presente trabajo intenta contribuir a alimentar un debate mas informado sobre posibilidades futuras de regulacion de esta materia revisando algunas experiencias del derecho comparado. El trabajo se focaliza en los mecanismos de reparacion de condenas erroneas en los que se revisan el caso de Espana y Estados Unidos. A partir de las experiencias comparadas se concluye que existen importantes espacios de mejora en Chile con el proposito de dar una cobertura mas amplia a la proteccion de las victimas de estos errores. EnglishRecent empirical studies, and long ago by the scholar opinions, suggest that the Chilean constitutional compensation mechanism in cases of miscarriages of justice is excessively restricted to the point that might led their victims unprotected. As a consequence of these negative perceptions, in the last 10 years many amendments to the article 19 no 7(i) of the Constitution has been proposed. In this context, this article tries to contribute to a betterinformed debate on the possible future regulation on this topic by reviewing some experiences from the point of view of comparative law. This article focuses on compensation schemes for wrongful convictions, where the cases of Spain and United States are studied. By reviewing these experiences, it is concluded that there are important possible improvements in Chile with the purposes of providing a better protection for the victims of such errors.
最近的经验证据和长期的理论表明,智利的司法错误赔偿宪法机制具有高度的限制性,使这些错误的受害者得不到保护。由于这种负面评价,近年来提出了10项宪法改革草案,以修改《宪法》第19条第7 (i)款。在此背景下,本文试图通过回顾比较法的一些经验,促进对这一领域未来监管可能性的更知情的辩论。这项工作的重点是纠正错误定罪的机制,其中审查了西班牙和美国的案件。通过比较经验,我们得出结论,智利有重要的改进空间,以便为这些错误的受害者提供更广泛的保护。最近的实证研究和很久以前的学者意见表明,智利在司法失当案件中的宪法补偿机制受到过度限制,可能使其受害者得不到保护。由于这些消极的看法,在过去10年里,对《宪法》第19条第7(一)项提出了许多修正案。在此背景下,本文试图从比较法的角度回顾一些经验,以便对今后可能对这一专题进行的监管进行更有见地的讨论。本文的重点是对错误定罪的补偿方案,研究了西班牙和美国的案例。通过回顾这些经验,得出的结论是,为了更好地保护这类错误的受害者,智利有很大的改进空间。
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引用次数: 1
Does More Entrepreneurship Benefit Society? The Effect on Community Crime Using a Quasi-Natural Experiment 更多的创业对社会有益吗?准自然实验对社区犯罪的影响
Pub Date : 2021-03-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3798302
Aleksandra J. Kacperczyk, Vera Rocha
Previous research has focused on the economic effects of entrepreneurship, but little is known about how promoting entrepreneurship affects societies. Focusing on community crime as a key societal outcome, we posit that initiatives fostering new venture creation through lower barriers to entrepreneurship will reduce crime. The proposed mechanism responsible for this effect is the enhanced socio-economic integration of disadvantaged groups within the community. This mechanism is enabled through multiple channels: lowering the barriers to entrepreneurship improves labor market opportunities for disadvantaged groups as founders of their own firms and joiners of new startups, or, more indirectly, as new hires at incumbent firms. Leveraging employer-employee matched data from Portugal between 2002 and 2010 and an exogenous deregulation reform that significantly increased entrepreneurial activity, we find strong support for our theory. Reducing barriers to entrepreneurship reduces within-community crime, and this result is further amplified in communities with higher socio-economic exclusion figures. We find significant reductions in different types of crime, although the magnitude, timing, and persistence of the effects varies, which gives important insights into the different integration mechanisms at play.
以前的研究主要集中在企业家精神的经济效应上,但对于促进企业家精神如何影响社会却知之甚少。将社区犯罪作为一个关键的社会结果,我们认为通过降低创业门槛来促进新的创业创造的举措将减少犯罪。产生这种效果的拟议机制是加强弱势群体在社区内的社会经济一体化。这种机制是通过多种渠道实现的:降低创业门槛可以改善弱势群体作为自己公司的创始人和新创业公司的参与者,或者更间接地作为现有公司的新员工,在劳动力市场上的机会。利用葡萄牙2002年至2010年的雇主-雇员匹配数据,以及显著增加创业活动的外生放松管制改革,我们发现我们的理论得到了强有力的支持。减少创业障碍可以减少社区内犯罪,这一结果在社会经济排斥数字较高的社区中进一步放大。我们发现不同类型的犯罪显著减少,尽管影响的幅度、时间和持续时间各不相同,这为不同的整合机制提供了重要的见解。
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引用次数: 4
The Deterrent Effect of Surveillance Cameras on Crime 监控摄像机对犯罪的威慑作用
Pub Date : 2020-03-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3560356
Santiago Tobón, Daniel Mejía, Santiago Gómez
From the US to Colombia to China, millions of public surveillance cameras are at the core of crime prevention strategies. Yet, we know little about the effects of surveillance cameras on criminal behavior, especially in developing economies. We study an installation program in Medellin and find t hat t he q uasi-random allocation of cameras led to a decrease in crimes and arrests. With no increase in the monitoring capacity and no chance to use camera footage in prosecution, these results suggest offenders were deterred rather than incapacitated. We test for spillovers and find no evidence of crime displacement or diffusion of benefits to surrounding locations.
从美国到哥伦比亚再到中国,数以百万计的公共监控摄像头是预防犯罪战略的核心。然而,我们对监控摄像头对犯罪行为的影响知之甚少,尤其是在发展中经济体。我们研究了麦德林的一个安装项目,发现摄像头的非随机分配导致了犯罪和逮捕的减少。由于监控能力没有增加,也没有机会在起诉中使用摄像机镜头,这些结果表明,罪犯被吓住了,而不是丧失了行为能力。我们测试了溢出效应,没有发现犯罪转移或利益扩散到周边地区的证据。
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引用次数: 7
The Breakdown of Anti-Racist Norms: A Natural Experiment on Normative Uncertainty after Terrorist Attacks 反种族主义规范的崩溃:恐怖袭击后规范不确定性的自然实验
Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3537597
Amalia Álvarez-Benjumea, Fabian Winter
Terrorist attacks can have profound consequences for the erosion of social norms, yet the causes of this erosion are not well understood. We argue that these attacks create substantial uncertainty about whether norms of civic conversation still hold. Observing breaches of these norms then leads people to express their own anti-immigrant attitudes more readily, as compared to a context where these norms are unambiguous. To test our theory, we examine (i) the impact of terrorist attacks on the level of hate speech against refugees in online discussions, and (ii) how the effect of terrorist attacks depends on the uncertainty about social norms of prejudice expression. To this end, we report on the results of a unique combination of a natural and a lab-in-the-field experiment. We exploit the occurrence of two consecutive Islamist terrorist attacks in Germany, the Würzburg and Ansbach attacks, in July 2016. Hateful comments towards refugees in an experimental online forum, but not towards other minority groups (i.e., gender rights), increased as a result of the attacks. The experiment compares the effect of the terrorist attacks in contexts where a descriptive norm against the use of hate speech is emphasized, i.e., participants observe only neutral or positive comments towards a minority group, to contexts in which the norm is ambiguous because participants observe anti-minority comments. Observing anti-immigrant comments had a considerable impact on our participants’ own comments after the attacks, while observing anti-gender-rights comments did not. We end by discussing implications of the findings for the literature on social norms, sociological methods and policy.
恐怖袭击可能对社会规范的侵蚀产生深远的影响,但这种侵蚀的原因尚不清楚。我们认为,这些攻击对公民对话的规范是否仍然有效造成了很大的不确定性。与这些规范明确的环境相比,观察到违反这些规范的行为会导致人们更容易表达自己的反移民态度。为了验证我们的理论,我们研究了(i)恐怖袭击对在线讨论中针对难民的仇恨言论水平的影响,以及(ii)恐怖袭击的影响如何取决于偏见表达的社会规范的不确定性。为此,我们报告了自然和野外实验室实验的独特结合的结果。我们利用2016年7月在德国连续发生的两起伊斯兰恐怖袭击事件,即维尔茨堡和安斯巴赫袭击事件。在一个试验性的在线论坛上,针对难民的仇恨言论增加了,但没有针对其他少数群体(即性别权利)。该实验比较了两种情况下恐怖袭击的效果:一种是强调反对使用仇恨言论的描述性规范,即参与者只观察到对少数群体的中立或积极的评论;另一种是规范不明确,因为参与者观察到反少数群体的评论。观察反移民的评论对参与者自己在袭击后的评论有相当大的影响,而观察反性别权利的评论则没有。最后,我们讨论了研究结果对社会规范、社会学方法和政策的影响。
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引用次数: 5
Driven to Failure: An Empirical Analysis of Driver's License Suspension in North Carolina 走向失败:北卡罗来纳州驾照吊销的实证分析
Pub Date : 2019-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3440832
W. Crozier, Brandon L. Garrett
The interest of a person in a driver’s license is “substantial,” and the suspension of a license by the State can result in “inconvenience and economic hardship suffered,” as the U.S. Supreme Court has observed, including because a license may “essential in the pursuit of a livelihood.” However, forty-four U.S. states currently require indefinite suspension of driver’s licenses for non-driving-related reasons, such as failure to appear in court or pay fines for traffic infractions. There are no systematic, peer-reviewed analyses of individual-level and county-level data regarding such suspensions. This study describes the North Carolina population of suspended drivers and assesses how driver’s license suspension statutes operate relative to geography, race, and poverty. We analyze four decades of active suspension data in North Carolina, and find over 1,225,000 active suspensions for failures to appear for or pay traffic fines (amounting to one in seven adult drivers in the state). Second, we compare these data to: county population data; county-level police traffic stop data, collected as required by statute in North Carolina; and county-level data on volume and composition of traffic court dockets. We do not find that either driver’s license suspensions are associated with volume of traffic stops or traffic court docket size. In contrast, we find that Blacks and Latinx are overrepresented relative to the population. Linear mixed-level modeling regression analyses demonstrate that the population of whites below poverty, and blacks above poverty, are most strongly associated with more suspensions. Finally, we explore implications of these results for efforts to reconsider the imposition of driver’s license suspensions for non-driving-related reasons. These patterns raise constitutional concerns and practical challenges for policy efforts to undo such large-scale suspension of driving privileges.
一个人对驾照的兴趣是“巨大的”,正如美国最高法院所指出的那样,国家吊销驾照可能会导致“不便和经济困难”,包括因为驾照可能是“追求生计所必需的”。然而,美国目前有44个州要求无限期吊销与驾驶无关的驾驶执照,例如未出庭或未支付交通违规罚款。目前还没有系统的、同行评议的对个人层面和县级数据的分析。本研究描述了北卡罗来纳州被吊销驾照的人口,并评估了驾照吊销法规是如何与地理、种族和贫困相关的。我们分析了北卡罗来纳州40年的主动悬架数据,发现超过122.5万名主动悬架司机因未出现或未支付交通罚款而被停职(相当于该州七分之一的成年司机)。其次,我们将这些数据与县人口数据进行比较;县级警察交通拦截数据,根据北卡罗来纳州法规的要求收集;以及县级交通法庭案卷的数量和构成数据。我们没有发现驾驶执照的吊销与交通停车量或交通法庭的大小有关。相反,我们发现黑人和拉丁裔相对于人口比例过高。线性混合水平模型回归分析表明,贫困以下的白人人口和贫困以上的黑人人口与更多的停学密切相关。最后,我们探讨了这些结果对重新考虑因非驾驶相关原因而被吊销驾照的影响。这些模式引起了宪法的关注,并对政策努力提出了实际挑战,以取消这种大规模的吊销驾驶特权。
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引用次数: 3
Immigration Demand and the Boomerang of Deportation Policies 移民需求与驱逐政策的反作用
Pub Date : 2019-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3491522
C. Ambrosius, David Leblang
What causes the demand for migration into the United States? We argue for, and demonstrate the existence of, a vicious cycle of US immigration policy and migration between the United States and countries from Latin America and the Caribbean. Our argument is simple: deportation of convicts from the United States leads to violence in the deportees’ home country which, in turn, increases the demand for that country’s natives to seek entry into the United States. We test this argument utilizing a nested research design based on cross-country panel data for Latin America and the Caribbean as well as subnational administrative and individual survey data from the case of El Salvador. At the cross-country level, we first estimate the effect of deportations on home country violence and find a strong positive effect of the lagged inflow of convicts on violence, but not for the inflow of non-convicts. In the second step, we show that the predicted level of home country violence helps explain the demand for entry into the United States. Municipal level and survey data from El Salvador complement the cross-country study and illustrate the export of gangs from the United States as one specific mechanism of how the deportation boomerang works. In the first step regression, we predict the contagion of gangs along migration corridors following large-scale deportations to El Salvador. In the second step regression, we use survey data to explain migration intentions as well as high rates of actual migration as a result of gang-related violence in El Salvador.
是什么导致了移民到美国的需求?我们论证并证明了美国移民政策和美国与拉丁美洲和加勒比国家之间移民的恶性循环的存在。我们的论点很简单:将罪犯从美国驱逐出境导致被驱逐者本国的暴力,这反过来又增加了该国本地人寻求进入美国的需求。我们利用基于拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的跨国面板数据以及萨尔瓦多的次国家行政和个人调查数据的嵌套研究设计来验证这一论点。在跨国层面上,我们首先估计了驱逐出境对母国暴力的影响,并发现罪犯的滞后流入对暴力有很强的积极影响,但对非罪犯的流入没有影响。在第二步中,我们展示了祖国暴力的预测水平有助于解释进入美国的需求。来自萨尔瓦多的市级和调查数据补充了这项跨国研究,并说明了从美国输出帮派是驱逐出境“回旋镖”如何起作用的一个具体机制。在第一步回归中,我们预测在大规模驱逐到萨尔瓦多后,沿移民走廊的帮派会蔓延。在第二步回归中,我们使用调查数据来解释移民意图以及萨尔瓦多帮派暴力导致的高实际移民率。
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引用次数: 4
Toplumsal Cinsiyetin, Mekânın ve Zamanın Tektipleştirilmesi: Tecavüz İçerikli Karikatürler ve Gerçek Temsiller Üzerine Bir Araştırma (Monotyping Gender, Place and Time: A Study on Rape Caricatures and Real Life Portrayals)
Pub Date : 2019-04-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3387927
Muhammet Öksüz, Ayla Deniz
Turkish Abstract: Bu çalışmada, tecavüz içerikli karikatürlerde toplumsal cinsiyet ve mekân ilişkilerinin kurgulanma biçimleri ele alınmaktadır. Aynı zamanda bu ele alışla ortaya çıkan görünümün, gerçek mağdurların deneyimleriyle karşılaştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu yolla karikatürlerdeki içerikle gerçeklik arasındaki ilişkinin nasıl olduğu ve bunu yaratan bağlam belirginleştirilmeye çalışılmaktadır. Bu kapsamda 80 karikatür ve tecavüzle ilgili 150 haber incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmanın sonucunda, tecavüz karikatürlerinde faillerin ve mağdurların tektipleştirildiği ve belirli grupları işaret ettiği görülmüştür. Gerçek mağdurlara ilişkin taranan haberlerde ise bu tektipleştirmenin olmadığı, daha çeşitli grupların tecavüzün tarafları olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Yine karikatürde tecavüz mekânları olarak kamusal mekânlar gösterilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, gerçek tecavüz örneklerinde özel alanda tecavüzün daha fazla gerçekleştiği görülmüştür. Dolayısıyla tecavüz içerikli karikatürlerin bu haliyle toplumsal cinsiyet eşitliğine ve sosyal adalete hizmet etmediği gibi var olan toplumsal cinsiyet rollerini pekiştirdiği, toplumsal cinsiyet eşitsizliğini güçlendirdiği ve bunları yeniden ürettiği anlaşılmıştır.

English Abstract: This study examines the ways in which gender, place, and time relations are constructed in rape cartoons. In addition, the situation in rape cartoons is intended to be compared with the stories of real victims. In this way, this study seeks to clarify the relationship between cartoons and reality. In this context, 80 cartoons and 150 news about rape were examined. As a result of this study, it was seen that the perpetrators and the victims were very monotype in the cartoons but were more diverse in the news. Furthermore, in the cartoons, public places are shown as places where rape occur. However, in news, it has been observed that rape occurred more often in private places. Therefore, it was concluded that rape cartoons did not serve gender equality and social justice in this form. On the contrary, they are reinforcing existing gender roles, strengthening gender inequality, and reproducing them.
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引用次数: 0
Crystallizing the Official Narrative: News Discourses About the Killings from the Philippine Government’s Campaign Against Illegal Drugs 官方叙事的具体化:菲律宾政府禁毒运动中有关杀戮的新闻话语
Pub Date : 2019-01-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3311422
C. Soriano, Clarissa C. David, J. M. Atun
The aim of this study is to show the media’s role in shaping, crystallizing and legitimizing a state­driven discourse of fear of illegal drug use, crime, and dehumanization of drug users. Drawing from a discourse analysis of news reports about the killings connected to the Philippine government’s campaign against illegal drugs, the paper argues that privileging a single source (state authority) and taking an “event­-focused” slant which were found to dominate the character of the reports, unwittingly give the state narrative control leading to the justification of a state­-led policy of zero-tolerance policing towards illegal drugs. As we critically examine how drugs, drug use, and the zero-tolerance policy are positioned through discourse in news texts, the paper raises important implications to the ethics and role of journalism in politics and provides explanations relating to crime reporting norms, values, and media organization realities.
本研究的目的是展示媒体在塑造、具体化和合法化国家驱动的对非法吸毒、犯罪和吸毒者非人性化的恐惧话语方面的作用。通过对与菲律宾政府打击非法毒品运动有关的杀人事件的新闻报道的话语分析,本文认为,对单一来源(国家当局)的特权和采取“以事件为中心”的倾向(被发现主导了报道的特征),无意中赋予了国家叙事控制权,从而为国家主导的对非法毒品的零容忍政策提供了理由。当我们批判性地审视毒品、毒品使用和零容忍政策如何通过新闻文本中的话语定位时,本文提出了对新闻在政治中的道德和角色的重要含义,并提供了与犯罪报道规范、价值观和媒体组织现实相关的解释。
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引用次数: 1
Ordered Leniency: An Experimental Study of Law Enforcement with Self-Reporting 命令宽大:自我报告执法的实验研究
Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3250945
Claudia M. Landeo, K. Spier
This paper reports the results of an experiment designed to assess the ability of an enforcement agency to detect and deter harmful short-term activities committed by groups of injurers. With ordered-leniency policies, early cooperators receive reduced sanctions. We replicate the strategic environment described by Landeo and Spier (2018). In theory, the optimal ordered-leniency policy depends on the refinement criterion applied in case of multiplicity of equilibria. Our findings are as follows. First, we provide empirical evidence of a "race-to-the-courthouse" effect of ordered leniency: Mild and Strong Leniency induce the injurers to self-report promptly. These findings suggest that the injurers' behaviors are aligned with the risk-dominance refinement. Second, Mild and Strong Leniency significantly increase the likelihood of detection of harmful activities. This fundamental finding is explained by the high self-reporting rates under ordered-leniency policies. Third, as a result of the increase in the detection rates, the averages fines are significantly higher under Mild and Strong Leniency. As expected when the risk-dominance refinement is applied, Mild Leniency exhibits the highest average fine.
本文报告了一项实验的结果,该实验旨在评估执法机构发现和阻止伤害群体所从事的有害短期活动的能力。在有序的宽大政策下,早期合作者受到的制裁减少了。我们复制了Landeo和Spier(2018)所描述的战略环境。理论上,最优的有序宽大策略取决于在多重均衡情况下所采用的细化准则。我们的研究结果如下。首先,我们提供了经验证据,证明了命令宽大的“奔向法院”效应:轻微宽大和强烈宽大促使伤害者迅速自我报告。这些发现表明,伤害者的行为与风险优势细化是一致的。其次,轻宽大和强宽大显著增加了发现有害活动的可能性。这一基本发现可以用有序宽大政策下的高自我报告率来解释。第三,由于检出率的提高,轻宽大和重宽大的平均罚款明显更高。正如预期的那样,当应用风险优势细化时,轻度宽大显示出最高的平均罚款。
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引用次数: 5
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