This paper analyzes how trade liberalization influences the unemployment rate of workers with different abilities. We refine the Melitz (2003) framework to account for trade unions and heterogeneous workers, who differ with respect to their abilities. Our main ?findings are: (i) high ability workers profit from trade liberalization in terms of higher wages and higher employment; (ii) the least efficient workers loose their job and switch to long-term unemployment (worker-selection effect); (iii) if a country is endowed with a large fraction of low-skilled workers, trade liberalization leads to a rise in aggregate unemployment. In this case, trade liberalization may harm a countrys welfare.
{"title":"International Trade and Unemployment - The Worker‐Selection Effect","authors":"M. de Pinto, J. Michaelis","doi":"10.1111/roie.12111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12111","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes how trade liberalization influences the unemployment rate of workers with different abilities. We refine the Melitz (2003) framework to account for trade unions and heterogeneous workers, who differ with respect to their abilities. Our main ?findings are: (i) high ability workers profit from trade liberalization in terms of higher wages and higher employment; (ii) the least efficient workers loose their job and switch to long-term unemployment (worker-selection effect); (iii) if a country is endowed with a large fraction of low-skilled workers, trade liberalization leads to a rise in aggregate unemployment. In this case, trade liberalization may harm a countrys welfare.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128226050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper explores the role of country asymmetries for trade and industrial policies with heterogeneous firms. The analysis delivers a number of novel results. First, trade policies, infrastructure policies and industrial policies which improve the business conditions in one country have negative productivity and welfare effects on the trading partner. Second, symmetric trade liberalization is immiserizing for a trading partner whose business conditions are inferior. Third, there are gains from trade even for a country whose monopolistically competitive sector with heterogeneous firms is wiped out by switching from autarky to trade.
{"title":"Trade and Industrial Policies with Heterogeneous Firms: The Role of Country Asymmetries","authors":"Michael Pflüger, Stephan Russek","doi":"10.1111/roie.12104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12104","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the role of country asymmetries for trade and industrial policies with heterogeneous firms. The analysis delivers a number of novel results. First, trade policies, infrastructure policies and industrial policies which improve the business conditions in one country have negative productivity and welfare effects on the trading partner. Second, symmetric trade liberalization is immiserizing for a trading partner whose business conditions are inferior. Third, there are gains from trade even for a country whose monopolistically competitive sector with heterogeneous firms is wiped out by switching from autarky to trade.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129412466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the horizontal and vertical export spillovers of foreign direct investment (FDI) on China's manufacturing domestic firms by using firm‐level census data over the period of 2000–03. Based on a Heckman two‐step procedure combining first differencing and instrumental variable regression techniques, it is found that FDI has had a positive impact on the export value of domestic firms mainly through backward technology spillovers and a positive impact on the export‐to‐sales ratio of domestic firms through horizontal export‐related information spillovers. After decomposing FDI by different market orientation and domestic firms by different ownership, the paper finds that the positive impact on domestic firms' export values is mainly from the nonexporting and the exporting foreign‐invested enterprises while the positive impact on domestic firms' export‐to‐sales ratios is mainly from the high‐exporting foreign‐invested enterprises. Both types of export spillovers are mainly diffused to domestic non‐state‐owned enterprises.
{"title":"Export Spillovers of FDI on China's Domestic Firms","authors":"Chunlai Chen, Yu Sheng, C. Findlay","doi":"10.1111/roie.12074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12074","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the horizontal and vertical export spillovers of foreign direct investment (FDI) on China's manufacturing domestic firms by using firm‐level census data over the period of 2000–03. Based on a Heckman two‐step procedure combining first differencing and instrumental variable regression techniques, it is found that FDI has had a positive impact on the export value of domestic firms mainly through backward technology spillovers and a positive impact on the export‐to‐sales ratio of domestic firms through horizontal export‐related information spillovers. After decomposing FDI by different market orientation and domestic firms by different ownership, the paper finds that the positive impact on domestic firms' export values is mainly from the nonexporting and the exporting foreign‐invested enterprises while the positive impact on domestic firms' export‐to‐sales ratios is mainly from the high‐exporting foreign‐invested enterprises. Both types of export spillovers are mainly diffused to domestic non‐state‐owned enterprises.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126750437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates effects of exchange rate on optimal trade policies and market prices within a standard export subsidy model. Shifts in exchange rate change relative efficiencies of firms in different countries. We show that depreciation of own currency increases subsidy levels when marginal cost is constant. Import dependency weakens this relationship, decreasing sensitivity of subsidy levels to depreciation. In general, subsidies reduce exchange rate pass‐through. Additionally, perverse exchange rate pass‐through effect arises with sufficiently intensive subsidies.
{"title":"Export Subsidies and Exchange Rate Pass‐Through","authors":"H. Orbay, Benan Zeki Orbay","doi":"10.1111/roie.12060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12060","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates effects of exchange rate on optimal trade policies and market prices within a standard export subsidy model. Shifts in exchange rate change relative efficiencies of firms in different countries. We show that depreciation of own currency increases subsidy levels when marginal cost is constant. Import dependency weakens this relationship, decreasing sensitivity of subsidy levels to depreciation. In general, subsidies reduce exchange rate pass‐through. Additionally, perverse exchange rate pass‐through effect arises with sufficiently intensive subsidies.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123996168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
It is well known that fiscal policy can counter‐cyclically smooth out the effect of unexpected shocks and public deficit volatility may reflect the (optimal) policy response to them. However, the welfare losses associated to fiscal instability are also an important challenge for many countries, as it typically implies an inefficient allocation of resources, higher sovereign risk premium and an inadequate provision of public services. In this paper, we empirically analyze the political, institutional, and economic sources of public deficit volatility. Using the system‐generalized method‐of‐moments (GMM) estimator for linear dynamic panel data models and a sample of 125 countries analyzed from 1980 to 2006, we show that higher public deficit volatility is typically associated with higher levels of political instability and less democracy. In addition, public deficit volatility tends to be magnified for small countries, in the outcome of hyper‐inflation episodes and for countries with a high degree of openness.
{"title":"Political, Institutional, and Economic Factors Underlying Deficit Volatility","authors":"Ricardo M. Sousa","doi":"10.1111/roie.12066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12066","url":null,"abstract":"It is well known that fiscal policy can counter‐cyclically smooth out the effect of unexpected shocks and public deficit volatility may reflect the (optimal) policy response to them. However, the welfare losses associated to fiscal instability are also an important challenge for many countries, as it typically implies an inefficient allocation of resources, higher sovereign risk premium and an inadequate provision of public services. In this paper, we empirically analyze the political, institutional, and economic sources of public deficit volatility. Using the system‐generalized method‐of‐moments (GMM) estimator for linear dynamic panel data models and a sample of 125 countries analyzed from 1980 to 2006, we show that higher public deficit volatility is typically associated with higher levels of political instability and less democracy. In addition, public deficit volatility tends to be magnified for small countries, in the outcome of hyper‐inflation episodes and for countries with a high degree of openness.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132166907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We consider the effects of interventions by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) on the intraday volatility of the US dollar/Japanese yen (USD/JPY) exchange rates and their spillovers to volatility of the euro/JPY exchange rates. We use 15‐minute data during the period 2000–2004 and employ multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) modeling and quartile plots of intraday volatility to analyze the intraday effects of the BoJ interventions on exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that the BoJ interventions decrease daily volatility of the USD/JPY exchange rate but increase the volatility of the euro/JPY series. On intervention days, the intraday volatility has different patterns to those on non‐intervention days.
{"title":"Volatility and Spillover Effects of Yen Interventions","authors":"G. Chortareas, Ying Jiang, J. Nankervis","doi":"10.1111/roie.12063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12063","url":null,"abstract":"We consider the effects of interventions by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) on the intraday volatility of the US dollar/Japanese yen (USD/JPY) exchange rates and their spillovers to volatility of the euro/JPY exchange rates. We use 15‐minute data during the period 2000–2004 and employ multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) modeling and quartile plots of intraday volatility to analyze the intraday effects of the BoJ interventions on exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that the BoJ interventions decrease daily volatility of the USD/JPY exchange rate but increase the volatility of the euro/JPY series. On intervention days, the intraday volatility has different patterns to those on non‐intervention days.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131847617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
It is well known that nations with high trade deficits normally have higher interest rates than those with surplus or balanced trade. However, such has not been the case with the USA, which has seen a relentless trade deficit since 1982. Its interest rates have been lower than those prevailing in many trade‐surplus nations. Furthermore, these rates fell even as the trade shortfall shot up, generating an interest‐rate paradox. This paper demonstrates that, unlike for other nations, the rising trade deficit itself became the cause of lower US interest rates, and this happened because of the world's strong interest in maintaining a high value of the dollar.
{"title":"The US Trade Deficit and the Rate of Interest","authors":"Ravi Batra, H. Beladi","doi":"10.1111/roie.12059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12059","url":null,"abstract":"It is well known that nations with high trade deficits normally have higher interest rates than those with surplus or balanced trade. However, such has not been the case with the USA, which has seen a relentless trade deficit since 1982. Its interest rates have been lower than those prevailing in many trade‐surplus nations. Furthermore, these rates fell even as the trade shortfall shot up, generating an interest‐rate paradox. This paper demonstrates that, unlike for other nations, the rising trade deficit itself became the cause of lower US interest rates, and this happened because of the world's strong interest in maintaining a high value of the dollar.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"104 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123009356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper finds evidence from Taiwanese manufacturing multinational enterprises (MNEs) for the period 2003–2005 to show that Taiwanese manufacturing MNEs are more likely to choose joint ventures (JVs) if intellectual property rights (IPRs) protection in the foreign direct investment (FDI) host country is strong. The estimation results suggest that if a country with an IPR strength similar to the level of Chile increases its IPR protection to the strength of Taiwan, the probability of forming JVs in that country will increase by 13.8%. One policy implication of this study is that developing countries can stimulate local participation by IPR reform.
{"title":"Modes of Foreign Direct Investment and Intellectual Property Rights Protection: Wholly‐Owned or Joint Venture? Firm‐Level Evidence from Taiwanese Multinational Manufacturing Enterprises","authors":"Po-Lu Chen","doi":"10.1111/roie.12054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12054","url":null,"abstract":"This paper finds evidence from Taiwanese manufacturing multinational enterprises (MNEs) for the period 2003–2005 to show that Taiwanese manufacturing MNEs are more likely to choose joint ventures (JVs) if intellectual property rights (IPRs) protection in the foreign direct investment (FDI) host country is strong. The estimation results suggest that if a country with an IPR strength similar to the level of Chile increases its IPR protection to the strength of Taiwan, the probability of forming JVs in that country will increase by 13.8%. One policy implication of this study is that developing countries can stimulate local participation by IPR reform.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"101 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133632847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the relationship between differences in endowments and different types of trade, in particular vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT). We build a general equilibrium framework based on a hybrid of the Chamberlain-Heckscher-Ohlin and the specific factors models that generates predictions about how the shares of different types of intra-industry and net trade flows change with differences in endowments. We also present some empirical evidence for European Union trade with its 51 major trading partners. The econometric models of the determinants of the different types of trade confirm the theoretical predictions, namely that the effect of cross country differences in the endowments of trading partners on the share of vertical IIT in total bilateral trade differs from their effect on both horizontal IIT and net trade. The share of horizontal IIT (net trade) decreases (increases) for all increases in absolute endowment differences, but the share of vertical IIT can both increase and decrease with increases in endowment differences.
{"title":"Endowment Differences and the Composition of Intra‐Industry Trade","authors":"M. Cabral, R. Falvey, C. Milner","doi":"10.1111/roie.12044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12044","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the relationship between differences in endowments and different types of trade, in particular vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT). We build a general equilibrium framework based on a hybrid of the Chamberlain-Heckscher-Ohlin and the specific factors models that generates predictions about how the shares of different types of intra-industry and net trade flows change with differences in endowments. We also present some empirical evidence for European Union trade with its 51 major trading partners. The econometric models of the determinants of the different types of trade confirm the theoretical predictions, namely that the effect of cross country differences in the endowments of trading partners on the share of vertical IIT in total bilateral trade differs from their effect on both horizontal IIT and net trade. The share of horizontal IIT (net trade) decreases (increases) for all increases in absolute endowment differences, but the share of vertical IIT can both increase and decrease with increases in endowment differences.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"386 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129146410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper is the first to specifically focus on the integration of refugee immigrants into the Swedish labor market. Using highly detailed register data on blue collar workers it is shown that refugees' employment lags that of natives basically for their whole life time in Sweden. Time in Sweden reduces drastically the unemployment days, though from very high initial levels. Refugees from culturally distant Iran/Iraq and Horn of Africa experience considerably more days in unemployment than refugees from the less distant Eastern Europe and Latin America. The differences are large during the first 20 years in Sweden but some convergence occurs thereafter. Following a business cycle upturn this paper finds that the reduction of refugees' unemployment is half of that of natives'. Since refugees arrive at different ages, high numbers of unemployment days are recorded also for relatively old refugees with the highest number for those above 30.
{"title":"Refugees' Employment Integration in Sweden: Cultural Distance and Labor Market Performance","authors":"P. Lundborg","doi":"10.1111/roie.12032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12032","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is the first to specifically focus on the integration of refugee immigrants into the Swedish labor market. Using highly detailed register data on blue collar workers it is shown that refugees' employment lags that of natives basically for their whole life time in Sweden. Time in Sweden reduces drastically the unemployment days, though from very high initial levels. Refugees from culturally distant Iran/Iraq and Horn of Africa experience considerably more days in unemployment than refugees from the less distant Eastern Europe and Latin America. The differences are large during the first 20 years in Sweden but some convergence occurs thereafter. Following a business cycle upturn this paper finds that the reduction of refugees' unemployment is half of that of natives'. Since refugees arrive at different ages, high numbers of unemployment days are recorded also for relatively old refugees with the highest number for those above 30.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122384636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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