During the last few decades cultural changes have been taking place in many countries due to migration. The degree to which the foreign culture influences the local culture, differs across countries. This paper shows how the willingness of locals and immigrants to intermarry influences the culture and the national identity of the host country. We use a search-theoretic approach to show that, even in situations where migrants and natives prefer to marry within their own community, the search process may lead to intermarriage. The exogamy can take on two forms: either migrants and natives each hold on to their own culture or the immigrants take on the natives' culture. In the first case we will see new cultures developing and the local culture will not survive over time. In the second case the local culture will survive. We show the conditions for assimilation versus no assimilation between the groups.
{"title":"Assimilation Through Marriage","authors":"G. Epstein, Renana Lindner Pomerantz","doi":"10.1111/roie.12030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12030","url":null,"abstract":"During the last few decades cultural changes have been taking place in many countries due to migration. The degree to which the foreign culture influences the local culture, differs across countries. This paper shows how the willingness of locals and immigrants to intermarry influences the culture and the national identity of the host country. We use a search-theoretic approach to show that, even in situations where migrants and natives prefer to marry within their own community, the search process may lead to intermarriage. The exogamy can take on two forms: either migrants and natives each hold on to their own culture or the immigrants take on the natives' culture. In the first case we will see new cultures developing and the local culture will not survive over time. In the second case the local culture will survive. We show the conditions for assimilation versus no assimilation between the groups.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"163 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122067346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Identifying the impact of climate on migration is a difficult undertaking because migration is a multi‐causal phenomenon, with a wide range of physical, climatic, cultural, and socio‐economic factors influencing decisions made by individuals and households. Combining data from the latest census in Yemen with a weather database as well as other geographic information, we assess the push and pull factors that may drive migration. These factors include climatic factors such as temperature and rainfall and their variability, socio‐economic factors such as the attractiveness of the areas of origin and destination among others in terms of employment, education, and irrigation, and cost factors as proxied by the distance between the places of origin and destination. The results suggest that climate variables do affect migration, but in a limited way, with socio‐economic and cost factors playing a much more prominent role.
{"title":"Is Internal Migration in Yemen Driven by Climate or Socio‐Economic Factors?","authors":"George Joseph, Q. Wodon","doi":"10.1111/roie.12037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12037","url":null,"abstract":"Identifying the impact of climate on migration is a difficult undertaking because migration is a multi‐causal phenomenon, with a wide range of physical, climatic, cultural, and socio‐economic factors influencing decisions made by individuals and households. Combining data from the latest census in Yemen with a weather database as well as other geographic information, we assess the push and pull factors that may drive migration. These factors include climatic factors such as temperature and rainfall and their variability, socio‐economic factors such as the attractiveness of the areas of origin and destination among others in terms of employment, education, and irrigation, and cost factors as proxied by the distance between the places of origin and destination. The results suggest that climate variables do affect migration, but in a limited way, with socio‐economic and cost factors playing a much more prominent role.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131661574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The European sovereign debt crisis revived the discussion concerning pros and cons of exchange rate adjustment in the face of asymmetric shocks. In the spirit of keynes, exit from the euro area is to regain rapidly international competitiveness. In the spirit of Schumpeter, exhange rate stability with structural reforms would be beneficial towards the long-run growth performance. Previous literature has estimated the average growth of countries with different degrees of exchange rate flexibility. We augment this literature by analyzing short-and long-term growth effects of exchange rate flexibility in a panel-cointegration framework for a sample of 60 countries clustered in five country groups. The estimations show that countries with a high degree of exchange rate stability exhibit a higher long-term growth performance. In line with Mundell (1961), we show that the degree of business cycle synchronization with the (potential) anchor country matters for the impact of exchange rate flexibility on growth.
{"title":"Short‐ and Long‐Term Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment","authors":"E. Kočenda, M. Maurel, Gunther Schnabl","doi":"10.1111/roie.12025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12025","url":null,"abstract":"The European sovereign debt crisis revived the discussion concerning pros and cons of exchange rate adjustment in the face of asymmetric shocks. In the spirit of keynes, exit from the euro area is to regain rapidly international competitiveness. In the spirit of Schumpeter, exhange rate stability with structural reforms would be beneficial towards the long-run growth performance. Previous literature has estimated the average growth of countries with different degrees of exchange rate flexibility. We augment this literature by analyzing short-and long-term growth effects of exchange rate flexibility in a panel-cointegration framework for a sample of 60 countries clustered in five country groups. The estimations show that countries with a high degree of exchange rate stability exhibit a higher long-term growth performance. In line with Mundell (1961), we show that the degree of business cycle synchronization with the (potential) anchor country matters for the impact of exchange rate flexibility on growth.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132350946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
China's current account surplus widened from the late 1990s, and its private consumption fell to one third of gross domestic product (GDP). We examine these domestic and external imbalances from two perspectives: the saving‐investment balance and the effective renminbi exchange rate. China's large external surplus has arisen neither from anaemic consumption nor from weak investment but rather from the saved windfalls from favorable demographics, market liberalization, robust restructuring and World Trade Organization (WTO) accession. Looking ahead, as these windfalls fade, saving will subside. The exchange rate is already playing a supporting role in rebalancing the Chinese economy, and the real effective exchange rate based on unit labor costs has appreciated very sharply. Prospective savings‐investment and exchange‐rate developments point to a higher consumption share and a narrowing of China's current account surplus.
{"title":"The Roles of Saving, Investment and the Renminbi in Rebalancing the Chinese Economy","authors":"Guonan Ma, Robert N. McCauley, Lillie Lam","doi":"10.1111/roie.12021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12021","url":null,"abstract":"China's current account surplus widened from the late 1990s, and its private consumption fell to one third of gross domestic product (GDP). We examine these domestic and external imbalances from two perspectives: the saving‐investment balance and the effective renminbi exchange rate. China's large external surplus has arisen neither from anaemic consumption nor from weak investment but rather from the saved windfalls from favorable demographics, market liberalization, robust restructuring and World Trade Organization (WTO) accession. Looking ahead, as these windfalls fade, saving will subside. The exchange rate is already playing a supporting role in rebalancing the Chinese economy, and the real effective exchange rate based on unit labor costs has appreciated very sharply. Prospective savings‐investment and exchange‐rate developments point to a higher consumption share and a narrowing of China's current account surplus.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132771873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ryoichi Nomura, Takao Ohkawa, M. Okamura, M. Tawada
We determine whether a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) acts as a building block for multilateral free trade (MFT) in a three-country model with asymmetric domestic markets. Our main conclusions are as follows: (i) A bilateral FTA between two large countries can act as a building block for MFT; (ii) A bilateral FTA between two small countries acts as a stumbling block for MFT; (iii) This FTA can be Pareto improving when a multilateral trade agreement is not feasible.
{"title":"Does a Bilateral FTA Pave the Way for Multilateral Free Trade?","authors":"Ryoichi Nomura, Takao Ohkawa, M. Okamura, M. Tawada","doi":"10.1111/roie.12028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12028","url":null,"abstract":"We determine whether a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) acts as a building block for multilateral free trade (MFT) in a three-country model with asymmetric domestic markets. Our main conclusions are as follows: (i) A bilateral FTA between two large countries can act as a building block for MFT; (ii) A bilateral FTA between two small countries acts as a stumbling block for MFT; (iii) This FTA can be Pareto improving when a multilateral trade agreement is not feasible.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117016927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The global economic crisis in 2007 forced China to move from export‐led growth to promoting domestic demand. The move is significant, but the success of this new growth strategy depends critically on the level of domestic market integrations. In this paper, we use the methodology proposed by Anderson and Wincoop to examine China's domestic market integrations. We find evidence of border effects at both national and regional levels with significant regional differences, but they are smaller than some earlier studies suggest. Income growth, lower transportation costs, and higher intra‐industry trade all have positive effects on China's regional trade. Among the factors affecting regional trade, a better business environment has the largest positive impact on lifting China's domestic trade between regions, especially in intermediate goods, suggesting that improving business environment should be the priority of government at all levels in China.
{"title":"China's Regional Trade and Domestic Market Integrations","authors":"Zhenhui Xu, Jianyong Fan","doi":"10.1111/roie.12013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12013","url":null,"abstract":"The global economic crisis in 2007 forced China to move from export‐led growth to promoting domestic demand. The move is significant, but the success of this new growth strategy depends critically on the level of domestic market integrations. In this paper, we use the methodology proposed by Anderson and Wincoop to examine China's domestic market integrations. We find evidence of border effects at both national and regional levels with significant regional differences, but they are smaller than some earlier studies suggest. Income growth, lower transportation costs, and higher intra‐industry trade all have positive effects on China's regional trade. Among the factors affecting regional trade, a better business environment has the largest positive impact on lifting China's domestic trade between regions, especially in intermediate goods, suggesting that improving business environment should be the priority of government at all levels in China.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127029961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-09-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01050.x
Nicholas Sly
This paper presents a model of task assignment and worker matching to explore how the distributions of labor endowments within countries influence aggregate productivity and international trade patterns. Higher moments of the skill distribution have complex relationships with the organization of the labor force. First, labor endowments skewed toward high abilities exhibit positive assortment of workers across tasks, while countries with distributions of ability skewed towards low abilities exhibit underemployment. Second, greater dispersion improves aggregate productivity in countries that experience underemployment, but worsens productivity where there is assortative assignment. Furthermore, the shape and size of factor endowments are shown to jointly determine a global pattern of comparative advantage. Countries are more likely to export their abundant factors when labor markets organize heterogenous workers effectively. These predictions receive empirical support from Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries using measures of diversity constructed from educational attainment.
{"title":"International Productivity Differences, Trade and the Distributions of Factor Endowments","authors":"Nicholas Sly","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01050.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01050.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a model of task assignment and worker matching to explore how the distributions of labor endowments within countries influence aggregate productivity and international trade patterns. Higher moments of the skill distribution have complex relationships with the organization of the labor force. First, labor endowments skewed toward high abilities exhibit positive assortment of workers across tasks, while countries with distributions of ability skewed towards low abilities exhibit underemployment. Second, greater dispersion improves aggregate productivity in countries that experience underemployment, but worsens productivity where there is assortative assignment. Furthermore, the shape and size of factor endowments are shown to jointly determine a global pattern of comparative advantage. Countries are more likely to export their abundant factors when labor markets organize heterogenous workers effectively. These predictions receive empirical support from Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries using measures of diversity constructed from educational attainment.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134465849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-09-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01060.x
Zhihao Yu
This paper presents a model in which economies of scope in production play a key role in a vertically-linked production structure. It identifies the divergence in the degrees of economies of scope and the attribute spaces of the products in different stages of production as a fundamental economic force behind outsourcing. Among other things, it is shown that outsourcing occurs in the following two extreme/opposite scenarios in terms of production and characteristics of the good: either (i) the degree of economies of scope is relatively very high and/or the attribute space is very small (i.e., close to a homogenous good), or (ii) the degree of economies of scope is relatively very low and/or the attribute space is very large (i.e. highly specialized input/service).
{"title":"Economies of Scope and Patterns of Global Outsourcing","authors":"Zhihao Yu","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01060.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01060.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a model in which economies of scope in production play a key role in a vertically-linked production structure. It identifies the divergence in the degrees of economies of scope and the attribute spaces of the products in different stages of production as a fundamental economic force behind outsourcing. Among other things, it is shown that outsourcing occurs in the following two extreme/opposite scenarios in terms of production and characteristics of the good: either (i) the degree of economies of scope is relatively very high and/or the attribute space is very small (i.e., close to a homogenous good), or (ii) the degree of economies of scope is relatively very low and/or the attribute space is very large (i.e. highly specialized input/service).","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122679463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-05-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01018.x
M. Frenkel, Jan‐Christoph Rülke, L. Zimmermann
We use data from the Consensus Economics Forecast Poll to analyze how current account forecasters form expectations. Our results suggest that forecasts do not satisfy traditional unbiasedness and orthogonality criteria for forecast rationality. In addition, we find anti-herding behavior among forecasters for the euro area and G7 countries. We also show that the cross-sectional heterogeneity in anti-herding is associated with cross-sectional heterogeneity in forecast accuracy. More specifically, we find some evidence indicating that forecasters who tend to herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who follow an anti-herding strategy.
{"title":"Do Current Account Forecasters Herd? Evidence from the Euro Area and the G7 Countries","authors":"M. Frenkel, Jan‐Christoph Rülke, L. Zimmermann","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01018.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01018.x","url":null,"abstract":"We use data from the Consensus Economics Forecast Poll to analyze how current account forecasters form expectations. Our results suggest that forecasts do not satisfy traditional unbiasedness and orthogonality criteria for forecast rationality. In addition, we find anti-herding behavior among forecasters for the euro area and G7 countries. We also show that the cross-sectional heterogeneity in anti-herding is associated with cross-sectional heterogeneity in forecast accuracy. More specifically, we find some evidence indicating that forecasters who tend to herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who follow an anti-herding strategy.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114781532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-05-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01024.x
Maria Bas
This paper develops a model of trade that features heterogeneous firms, technology choice and different types of skilled labor in a general equilibrium framework to explain within-industry increase in the relative demand for skilled workers. Its main contribution is to investigate the impact of firms' export and technology choice decisions on skill upgrading. Only firms in the upper range of the productivity distribution produce for the foreign market using high-technology. Since this technology is skilled-biased, exporters that resort to modern technologies are more skill intensive. Empirical evidence is also provided to support the model's main predictions using plant-level panel data from Chile's manufacturing sector (1990–1999).
{"title":"Technology Adoption, Export Status, and Skill Upgrading: Theory and Evidence","authors":"Maria Bas","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01024.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01024.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a model of trade that features heterogeneous firms, technology choice and different types of skilled labor in a general equilibrium framework to explain within-industry increase in the relative demand for skilled workers. Its main contribution is to investigate the impact of firms' export and technology choice decisions on skill upgrading. Only firms in the upper range of the productivity distribution produce for the foreign market using high-technology. Since this technology is skilled-biased, exporters that resort to modern technologies are more skill intensive. Empirical evidence is also provided to support the model's main predictions using plant-level panel data from Chile's manufacturing sector (1990–1999).","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130512304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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