Pub Date : 2010-01-18DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00862.x
Jai‐Young Choi, E. Yu
This paper investigates the analytical implications of partially mobile capital among sectors arising in the context of the two-sector general-equilibrium Harris–Todaro (HT) model. It is shown that under partially mobile capital, unlike the case of totally mobile or immobile capital, labor growth (capital accumulation) may destabilize sectoral capital movement and lower the welfare of a small country if the agricultural rental rate is lower (higher) than the manufacturing rental rate. While the price–output response is always normal in a stable system, the Rybczynski type of factor endowment–output response requires more stringent conditions (vis-a-vis perfectly mobile or immobile capital case).
{"title":"Imperfect Capital Mobility: A General Approach to the Two-Sector Harris Todaro Model","authors":"Jai‐Young Choi, E. Yu","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00862.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00862.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the analytical implications of partially mobile capital among sectors arising in the context of the two-sector general-equilibrium Harris–Todaro (HT) model. It is shown that under partially mobile capital, unlike the case of totally mobile or immobile capital, labor growth (capital accumulation) may destabilize sectoral capital movement and lower the welfare of a small country if the agricultural rental rate is lower (higher) than the manufacturing rental rate. While the price–output response is always normal in a stable system, the Rybczynski type of factor endowment–output response requires more stringent conditions (vis-a-vis perfectly mobile or immobile capital case).","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126484697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-01-18DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00877.x
M. Cipollina, L. Salvatici
The gravity model is a workhorse tool applicable in a wide range of empirical fields. It is regularly used to estimate the impact of reciprocal trade agreements (RTAs) on trade flows between partners. The studies report very different estimates since there is a significant difference in datasets, sample sizes, and independent variables. This paper combines, explains, and summarizes a large number of results using a meta-analysis approach. We provide pooled estimates, obtained from fixed and random effects models of the RTAs’ effect size on bilateral trade: the hypothesis that there is no effect of RTAs on trade is robustly rejected at standard significance levels. The information collected on each estimate allows us to test the sensitivity of the results to alternative specifications and differences in the control variables considered, as well as the impact of the publication selection process.
{"title":"Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta-Analysis","authors":"M. Cipollina, L. Salvatici","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00877.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00877.x","url":null,"abstract":"The gravity model is a workhorse tool applicable in a wide range of empirical fields. It is regularly used to estimate the impact of reciprocal trade agreements (RTAs) on trade flows between partners. The studies report very different estimates since there is a significant difference in datasets, sample sizes, and independent variables. This paper combines, explains, and summarizes a large number of results using a meta-analysis approach. We provide pooled estimates, obtained from fixed and random effects models of the RTAs’ effect size on bilateral trade: the hypothesis that there is no effect of RTAs on trade is robustly rejected at standard significance levels. The information collected on each estimate allows us to test the sensitivity of the results to alternative specifications and differences in the control variables considered, as well as the impact of the publication selection process.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127167359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-12-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2011.01014.x
Margherita Comola
Throughout the XXth century arms have not only been tradable goods, but also foreign policy instruments. This paper focuses on countries supplying major conventional weapons (MCW), and investigates whether changes in political conditions impact the quantity of MCW supplied to third countries. In particular, I concentrate on democratic exporters and estimate a gravity-type panel TOBIT for the years 1975-2004. Results suggest that the exporter's chief executive being right-wing has a positive and significant impact on MCW exports. This may reect a general right-wing tendency to support national industry and deregulate heavy industry exports. I also find that higher political competition is associated with higher MCW exports, and that executives serving the last year of their current term tend to increase MCW exports if they cannot be re-elected, and to decrease MCW exports if they run for re-election.
{"title":"Democracies, Politics, and Arms Supply","authors":"Margherita Comola","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2011.01014.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2011.01014.x","url":null,"abstract":"Throughout the XXth century arms have not only been tradable goods, but also foreign policy instruments. This paper focuses on countries supplying major conventional weapons (MCW), and investigates whether changes in political conditions impact the quantity of MCW supplied to third countries. In particular, I concentrate on democratic exporters and estimate a gravity-type panel TOBIT for the years 1975-2004. Results suggest that the exporter's chief executive being right-wing has a positive and significant impact on MCW exports. This may reect a general right-wing tendency to support national industry and deregulate heavy industry exports. I also find that higher political competition is associated with higher MCW exports, and that executives serving the last year of their current term tend to increase MCW exports if they cannot be re-elected, and to decrease MCW exports if they run for re-election.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126268454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-11-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00811.x
T. Kikuchi
This note proposes a three-country model of monopolistic competition that captures the role of time zones in the division of labor. The connectivity of business service sectors via communications networks (e.g. the Internet, satellite communications systems) is found to determine the structure of comparative advantage. That is, two countries with connected service sectors have a comparative advantage in the good that requires business services. It is also shown that the third unconnected country inevitably specializes in the good that does not require business services.
{"title":"Time Zones as a Source of Comparative Advantage","authors":"T. Kikuchi","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00811.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00811.x","url":null,"abstract":"This note proposes a three-country model of monopolistic competition that captures the role of time zones in the division of labor. The connectivity of business service sectors via communications networks (e.g. the Internet, satellite communications systems) is found to determine the structure of comparative advantage. That is, two countries with connected service sectors have a comparative advantage in the good that requires business services. It is also shown that the third unconnected country inevitably specializes in the good that does not require business services.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128133470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-10-28DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2008.00787.x
K. Fujiwara
This paper revisits a classical topic of trade gains in a differential game model of oligopoly in which Home and Foreign firms differ in the number and cost. After deriving the feedback Nash equilibrium, we provide examples to consider how the difference in the number of firms or costs affects gainfulness of trade. We prove that feedback strategies can result in implications for trade gains which are sharply different from the open-loop case.
{"title":"Gains from Trade in a Differential Game Model of Asymmetric Oligopoly","authors":"K. Fujiwara","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2008.00787.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2008.00787.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper revisits a classical topic of trade gains in a differential game model of oligopoly in which Home and Foreign firms differ in the number and cost. After deriving the feedback Nash equilibrium, we provide examples to consider how the difference in the number of firms or costs affects gainfulness of trade. We prove that feedback strategies can result in implications for trade gains which are sharply different from the open-loop case.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126839902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-09-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00846.x
Avner Bar-Ilan, N. Marion
This paper nests the buffer stock model within a standard open-economy model to capture two motives for international reserves accumulation—the insurance motive and the export-led growth motive. The model is solved for two exchange-rate policies, discretion and a rule with escape clause. It illustrates the behavior of international reserves and other macroeconomic variables when the policymaker pursues output and inflation stabilization and recognizes the supply of reserves can constrain the choice of exchange rate and the choice of exchange rate affects the supply of reserves. When output is below potential, it is optimal under both discretion and the rule to adopt a weak currency and promote export-led growth to achieve output and inflation stabilization. This policy leads to reserve accumulation and is consistent with the behavior of China. When reserves are low initially, welfare is higher when the policymaker follows a rule.
{"title":"A Macroeconomic Perspective on Reserve Accumulation","authors":"Avner Bar-Ilan, N. Marion","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00846.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00846.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper nests the buffer stock model within a standard open-economy model to capture two motives for international reserves accumulation—the insurance motive and the export-led growth motive. The model is solved for two exchange-rate policies, discretion and a rule with escape clause. It illustrates the behavior of international reserves and other macroeconomic variables when the policymaker pursues output and inflation stabilization and recognizes the supply of reserves can constrain the choice of exchange rate and the choice of exchange rate affects the supply of reserves. When output is below potential, it is optimal under both discretion and the rule to adopt a weak currency and promote export-led growth to achieve output and inflation stabilization. This policy leads to reserve accumulation and is consistent with the behavior of China. When reserves are low initially, welfare is higher when the policymaker follows a rule.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127945006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-09-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00843.x
Alex Mandilaras, H. Popper
We examine the international capital flows of seven East Asian emerging economies over the last decade and a half. We find that domestic capital market conditions appear to be the best predictors of the changes in the total capital flows of these countries. Overall, changes in capital market openness are less helpful in explaining the behavior of the recent capital flows of these economies. Finally, we find that, while US macroeconomic conditions are strong predictors of GDP growth in the region, US conditions matter very little for the region's capital flows.
{"title":"Capital Flows, Capitalization, and Openness in Emerging East Asian Economies","authors":"Alex Mandilaras, H. Popper","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00843.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00843.x","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the international capital flows of seven East Asian emerging economies over the last decade and a half. We find that domestic capital market conditions appear to be the best predictors of the changes in the total capital flows of these countries. Overall, changes in capital market openness are less helpful in explaining the behavior of the recent capital flows of these economies. Finally, we find that, while US macroeconomic conditions are strong predictors of GDP growth in the region, US conditions matter very little for the region's capital flows.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128996557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-09-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00844.x
Suparna Chakraborty, R. Dekle
An influential explanation for the recent rise in the US current account deficit is the boom in US productivity. As US productivity surged in the mid-1990s, capital was attracted to the US to take advantage of the higher real returns. Using a two-country general-equilibrium model, this paper quantitatively shows that the gap in productivity growth between the US and the “rest of the world” cannot explain the US current account deficits, especially in the 1980s and the 2000s. This is because on a GDP-weighted basis, the “rest of the world” actually had higher productivity growth during these periods, and standard macroeconomic models would predict an outflow of funds from the US to the rest of the world, and a consequent US current account surplus. We show that changes in global financial integration can help explain this anomaly in US current account behavior.
{"title":"Can International Productivity Differences Alone Account for the US Current Account Deficits?","authors":"Suparna Chakraborty, R. Dekle","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00844.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00844.x","url":null,"abstract":"An influential explanation for the recent rise in the US current account deficit is the boom in US productivity. As US productivity surged in the mid-1990s, capital was attracted to the US to take advantage of the higher real returns. Using a two-country general-equilibrium model, this paper quantitatively shows that the gap in productivity growth between the US and the “rest of the world” cannot explain the US current account deficits, especially in the 1980s and the 2000s. This is because on a GDP-weighted basis, the “rest of the world” actually had higher productivity growth during these periods, and standard macroeconomic models would predict an outflow of funds from the US to the rest of the world, and a consequent US current account surplus. We show that changes in global financial integration can help explain this anomaly in US current account behavior.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129233936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-09-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00841.x
Diego Bastourre, J. Carrera, Javier Ibarlucia
Foreign reserve accumulation is a widespread phenomenon of recent years, particularly among emerging economies. Using a panel of 136 countries for the period 1973–2003, we demonstrate the need of using both a dynamic specification of the reserve demand equation and the system GMM estimator. These improvements change the results found by previous studies. Openness, regional imitation, persistence, an inverted U-shaped relationship between reserves and income level, and financial deregulation are the factors driving reserve hoardings. In contrast, reserves yield, and both trade and financial volatility are not statistically significant. Surprisingly, we find that countries with flexible exchange rate regimes have higher ratios of reserves to GDP. This result is robust to alternative exchange rate regime classifications.
{"title":"What is Driving Reserve Accumulation? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach","authors":"Diego Bastourre, J. Carrera, Javier Ibarlucia","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00841.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00841.x","url":null,"abstract":"Foreign reserve accumulation is a widespread phenomenon of recent years, particularly among emerging economies. Using a panel of 136 countries for the period 1973–2003, we demonstrate the need of using both a dynamic specification of the reserve demand equation and the system GMM estimator. These improvements change the results found by previous studies. Openness, regional imitation, persistence, an inverted U-shaped relationship between reserves and income level, and financial deregulation are the factors driving reserve hoardings. In contrast, reserves yield, and both trade and financial volatility are not statistically significant. Surprisingly, we find that countries with flexible exchange rate regimes have higher ratios of reserves to GDP. This result is robust to alternative exchange rate regime classifications.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116798685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-09-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00840.x
M. Dooley, D. Folkerts-Landau, Peter M. Garber
We identify incentives generated by the Bretton Woods II system that may have contributed to the sub-prime liquidity crisis now working its way through the international monetary system. We then evaluate the persistent conjecture that the liquidity crisis is or will become a balance of payments crisis for the United States. Given that it happens, the additional costs associated with a sudden stop of net capital flows to the United States could be quite substantial. But we observe that emerging market governments have continued to acquire US assets even as yields have fallen, and the incentives for continuing to do so remain strong. Moreover, the Bretton Woods II system, which has clearly been the most resilient of the forces driving current markets, continues to generate low real interest rates in industrial countries and growth in emerging markets that will help limit the damage from the liquidity crisis.
{"title":"Will Sub-Prime be a Twin Crisis for the United States?","authors":"M. Dooley, D. Folkerts-Landau, Peter M. Garber","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00840.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00840.x","url":null,"abstract":"We identify incentives generated by the Bretton Woods II system that may have contributed to the sub-prime liquidity crisis now working its way through the international monetary system. We then evaluate the persistent conjecture that the liquidity crisis is or will become a balance of payments crisis for the United States. Given that it happens, the additional costs associated with a sudden stop of net capital flows to the United States could be quite substantial. But we observe that emerging market governments have continued to acquire US assets even as yields have fallen, and the incentives for continuing to do so remain strong. Moreover, the Bretton Woods II system, which has clearly been the most resilient of the forces driving current markets, continues to generate low real interest rates in industrial countries and growth in emerging markets that will help limit the damage from the liquidity crisis.","PeriodicalId":351939,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Review of International Economics","volume":"91 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123548559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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