The surge in fiscal deficits since 2008 has put a renewed focus on the authors? understanding of fiscal policy. The interaction of fiscal and monetary policy during this period has also been the subject of much discussion and analysis. This paper gives new insight into past fiscal policy and its influence on monetary policy by examining the U.S. Federal Reserve Board staff?s Greenbook forecasts of fiscal policy. The authors create a real-time database of the Greenbook forecasts of fiscal policy, examine the forecast performance in terms of bias and effciency, and explore the implications for the interaction of fiscal policy and monetary policy. The authors also attempt to provide advice for fiscal policy by showing how policymakers learn over time about the trajectory of the U.S. federal government?s fiscal balance as well as the changing roles of structural and cyclical factors.
{"title":"Fiscal Policy: Ex Ante and Ex Post","authors":"Dean Croushore, S. van Norden","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2494395","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2494395","url":null,"abstract":"The surge in fiscal deficits since 2008 has put a renewed focus on the authors? understanding of fiscal policy. The interaction of fiscal and monetary policy during this period has also been the subject of much discussion and analysis. This paper gives new insight into past fiscal policy and its influence on monetary policy by examining the U.S. Federal Reserve Board staff?s Greenbook forecasts of fiscal policy. The authors create a real-time database of the Greenbook forecasts of fiscal policy, examine the forecast performance in terms of bias and effciency, and explore the implications for the interaction of fiscal policy and monetary policy. The authors also attempt to provide advice for fiscal policy by showing how policymakers learn over time about the trajectory of the U.S. federal government?s fiscal balance as well as the changing roles of structural and cyclical factors.","PeriodicalId":355111,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130047509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper shows that depending on the distribution of banks' uncertain liquidity needs and on how monetary policy is implemented, frictions in the interbank market may reinforce the effectiveness of monetary policy. These frictions imply that with its lending and deposit facilities the central bank has an additional effective instrument at hand to impose an impact on bank loan supply. While lowering the rate on the lending facility has, taken for itself, an expansionary effect, lowering the rate on the deposit facility has a contractionary effect. This result has interesting implications for monetary policy implementation at the zero lower bound.
{"title":"Frictions in the Interbank Market and Uncertain Liquidity Needs: Implications for Monetary Policy Implementation","authors":"Monika Bucher, Achim Hauck, Ulrike Neyer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2490908","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2490908","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that depending on the distribution of banks' uncertain liquidity needs and on how monetary policy is implemented, frictions in the interbank market may reinforce the effectiveness of monetary policy. These frictions imply that with its lending and deposit facilities the central bank has an additional effective instrument at hand to impose an impact on bank loan supply. While lowering the rate on the lending facility has, taken for itself, an expansionary effect, lowering the rate on the deposit facility has a contractionary effect. This result has interesting implications for monetary policy implementation at the zero lower bound.","PeriodicalId":355111,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121121545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper develops the framework of analysis of monetary systems put together by authors such as Macleod, Keynes, Innes, and Knapp. This framework does not focus on the functions performed by an object but rather on its financial characteristics. Anything issued by anybody can be a monetary instrument and any type of material can be used to make a monetary instrument, as these are unimportant determinants of what a monetary instrument is. What matters is the existence of specific financial characteristics. These characteristics lead to a stable nominal value (parity) in the proper financial environment. This framework of analysis leads the researcher to study how the fair value of a monetary instrument changes and how that change differs from changes in the value of the unit of account. It also provides a road map to understanding monetary history and why monetary instruments are held.
{"title":"Monetary Mechanics: A Financial View","authors":"Éric Tymoigne","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2434047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2434047","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops the framework of analysis of monetary systems put together by authors such as Macleod, Keynes, Innes, and Knapp. This framework does not focus on the functions performed by an object but rather on its financial characteristics. Anything issued by anybody can be a monetary instrument and any type of material can be used to make a monetary instrument, as these are unimportant determinants of what a monetary instrument is. What matters is the existence of specific financial characteristics. These characteristics lead to a stable nominal value (parity) in the proper financial environment. This framework of analysis leads the researcher to study how the fair value of a monetary instrument changes and how that change differs from changes in the value of the unit of account. It also provides a road map to understanding monetary history and why monetary instruments are held.","PeriodicalId":355111,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114582736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Although the leaf-thin bracteates are the most fragile coins in monetary history, they were the main coin type for almost two centuries in large parts of medieval Europe. The usefulness of the bracteates can be linked to the contemporary monetary taxation policy. Medieval coins were frequently withdrawn by the coin issuer and re-minted, where people had to pay an exchange fee. Bracteates had several favourable characteristics for such a policy: 1) Low production costs; and 2) various pictures could be displayed given their relatively large diameter, making it easy to distinguish between valid and invalid types. The fragility was not a big problem, since the bracteates would not circulate for a long period. When monetization increased and it became more difficult to handle re-coinage (around 1300), the bracteates lost their function as the principal coin. However, for a further two centuries (1300–1500) they were used as small change to larger denominations.
{"title":"The Bracteate as Economic Idea and Monetary Instrument","authors":"R. Svensson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2469228","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2469228","url":null,"abstract":"Although the leaf-thin bracteates are the most fragile coins in monetary history, they were the main coin type for almost two centuries in large parts of medieval Europe. The usefulness of the bracteates can be linked to the contemporary monetary taxation policy. Medieval coins were frequently withdrawn by the coin issuer and re-minted, where people had to pay an exchange fee. Bracteates had several favourable characteristics for such a policy: 1) Low production costs; and 2) various pictures could be displayed given their relatively large diameter, making it easy to distinguish between valid and invalid types. The fragility was not a big problem, since the bracteates would not circulate for a long period. When monetization increased and it became more difficult to handle re-coinage (around 1300), the bracteates lost their function as the principal coin. However, for a further two centuries (1300–1500) they were used as small change to larger denominations.","PeriodicalId":355111,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125493351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Monetary policy measures are widely used in various countries the world to influence economic conditions. However, the efficiency of the impact of monetary policy on macroeconomic performance varies in different countries. Understanding the characteristics of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, that is, the process of the impact of policy on the behavior of economic agents, the end result of which is the change of the main macroeconomic indicators will consider the impact of actions of monetary authorities to the individual agents. In this work analyzed in detail the mechanism of monetary transmission. Look at specifics of the main transmission channels and identified factors that influence their effectiveness. This chapter is analyzes the characteristics of the channels of transmission mechanism in Russia in the first decade of the XXI century.
{"title":"Механизм Кредитно-Денежной Трансмиссии в России (The Mechanism of Monetary Transmissions in Russia)","authors":"E. Leontyeva","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2264166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2264166","url":null,"abstract":"Monetary policy measures are widely used in various countries the world to influence economic conditions. However, the efficiency of the impact of monetary policy on macroeconomic performance varies in different countries. Understanding the characteristics of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, that is, the process of the impact of policy on the behavior of economic agents, the end result of which is the change of the main macroeconomic indicators will consider the impact of actions of monetary authorities to the individual agents. In this work analyzed in detail the mechanism of monetary transmission. Look at specifics of the main transmission channels and identified factors that influence their effectiveness. This chapter is analyzes the characteristics of the channels of transmission mechanism in Russia in the first decade of the XXI century.","PeriodicalId":355111,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123708403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the history and operation of the Federal Reserve System (“the Fed”). It explores the Fed’s origins in American economic history and emphasizes the political compromises that produced it. It seeks to provide an accessible explanation of how the Fed attempts to change the money supply and of the structural challenges it faces as it attempts to get the money supply correct. The paper uses the framework thereby developed to examine recent monetary policy, including quantitative easing. Inflation and deflation result when the Fed creates too much or too little money, and the study discusses the causes and costs of both in detail. The paper concludes with an examination of alternatives to central banking, including the gold standard and a system of competition in money production known as free banking.
{"title":"An Introduction to US Monetary Policy","authors":"S. Horwitz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3256403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3256403","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the history and operation of the Federal Reserve System (“the Fed”). It explores the Fed’s origins in American economic history and emphasizes the political compromises that produced it. It seeks to provide an accessible explanation of how the Fed attempts to change the money supply and of the structural challenges it faces as it attempts to get the money supply correct. The paper uses the framework thereby developed to examine recent monetary policy, including quantitative easing. Inflation and deflation result when the Fed creates too much or too little money, and the study discusses the causes and costs of both in detail. The paper concludes with an examination of alternatives to central banking, including the gold standard and a system of competition in money production known as free banking.","PeriodicalId":355111,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116541392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This essay examines unconventional monetary policy with a view on payment of Interest On Excess Reserves (IOER) and how it is important in order to achieve the central bank targets.It starts by describing conventional monetary policy followed by an examination of modern monetary regimes which implement a corridor system in order to target interest rates. QE is introduced and advantages and disadvantages of IOER are outlined in detail.
{"title":"Quantitative Easing and Interest on Reserves: How Significant is it?","authors":"Kostas Vladimirou Kalevras","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2222095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2222095","url":null,"abstract":"This essay examines unconventional monetary policy with a view on payment of Interest On Excess Reserves (IOER) and how it is important in order to achieve the central bank targets.It starts by describing conventional monetary policy followed by an examination of modern monetary regimes which implement a corridor system in order to target interest rates. QE is introduced and advantages and disadvantages of IOER are outlined in detail.","PeriodicalId":355111,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"230 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116229861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we present the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters introduced in 2011 by the National Bank of Poland. It is a new survey that allows analysis of macroeconomic forecasts of professional economists, including their probabilistic forecasts of CPI inflation, GDP growth and the NBP reference rate. In the paper we discuss in detail survey methodology, whose some elements are novel. It refers especially to the construction of probabilistic survey questions. Instead of declaring probabilities that in a certain horizon a given variable will be in pre-defined intervals, NBP SPF experts declare median and the limits of a 90-percent probability range between the 5th and 95th percentile of their subjective probability distributions. To present the benefits from the applied design of the NBP SPF, we describe the first results obtained from the NBP SPF.
{"title":"A New Approach to Probabilistic Surveys of Professional Forecasters and Its Application in the Monetary Policy Context","authors":"H. Kowalczyk, Tomasz Lyziak, E. Stanisławska","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2230338","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2230338","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we present the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters introduced in 2011 by the National Bank of Poland. It is a new survey that allows analysis of macroeconomic forecasts of professional economists, including their probabilistic forecasts of CPI inflation, GDP growth and the NBP reference rate. In the paper we discuss in detail survey methodology, whose some elements are novel. It refers especially to the construction of probabilistic survey questions. Instead of declaring probabilities that in a certain horizon a given variable will be in pre-defined intervals, NBP SPF experts declare median and the limits of a 90-percent probability range between the 5th and 95th percentile of their subjective probability distributions. To present the benefits from the applied design of the NBP SPF, we describe the first results obtained from the NBP SPF.","PeriodicalId":355111,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115421221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a DSGE model in which the policy rate signals the central bank's view about macroeconomic developments to incompletely informed price setters. The model is estimated with likelihood methods on a U.S. data set including the Survey of Professional Forecasters as a measure of price setters' expectations. The signaling effects of monetary policy are found to be empirically important and dampen the effects of monetary disturbances on inflation. While the signaling effects enhance the Federal Reserve's ability to stabilize the economy in the face of demand shocks, they play a small role in stabilizing the economy after technology shocks.
我们开发了一个DSGE模型，其中政策利率向不完全知情的价格制定者表明了央行对宏观经济发展的看法。该模型是用美国数据集的可能性方法估计的，其中包括专业预测者调查(Survey of Professional forecasts)，作为价格制定者预期的衡量标准。研究发现，货币政策的信号效应具有重要的实证意义，可以抑制货币干扰对通胀的影响。虽然信号效应增强了美联储在面对需求冲击时稳定经济的能力，但它们在技术冲击后稳定经济方面的作用很小。
{"title":"Signaling Effects of Monetary Policy","authors":"Leonardo Melosi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2284167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2284167","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a DSGE model in which the policy rate signals the central bank's view about macroeconomic developments to incompletely informed price setters. The model is estimated with likelihood methods on a U.S. data set including the Survey of Professional Forecasters as a measure of price setters' expectations. The signaling effects of monetary policy are found to be empirically important and dampen the effects of monetary disturbances on inflation. While the signaling effects enhance the Federal Reserve's ability to stabilize the economy in the face of demand shocks, they play a small role in stabilizing the economy after technology shocks.","PeriodicalId":355111,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134492268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The monetary authorities affect the macroeconomic activity through various channels of influence. This paper examines the bank lending channel, which considers how central bank actions affect deposits, loan supply, and real spending. The monetary authorities influence deposits and loan supplies through its main indicator of policy, the real short-term interest rate. This paper employs the endogenously determined target interest rate emanating from the central bank’s monetary policy rule to examine the operation of the bank lending channel. Furthermore, it examines whether different bank-specific characteristics affect how European banks react to monetary shocks. That is, do sounder banks react more to the monetary policy rule than less-sound banks. In addition, inflation and output expectations alter the central bank’s decision for its target interest rate, which, in turn, affect the banking system’s deposits and loan supply. Robustness tests, using additional control variables, (i.e., the growth rate of consumption, the ratio loans to total deposits, and the growth rate of total deposits) support the previous results.
{"title":"The Bank Lending Channel and Monetary Policy Rules for European Banks: Further Extensions","authors":"N. Apergis, S. Miller, Effrosyni Alevizopoulou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2121819","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2121819","url":null,"abstract":"The monetary authorities affect the macroeconomic activity through various channels of influence. This paper examines the bank lending channel, which considers how central bank actions affect deposits, loan supply, and real spending. The monetary authorities influence deposits and loan supplies through its main indicator of policy, the real short-term interest rate. This paper employs the endogenously determined target interest rate emanating from the central bank’s monetary policy rule to examine the operation of the bank lending channel. Furthermore, it examines whether different bank-specific characteristics affect how European banks react to monetary shocks. That is, do sounder banks react more to the monetary policy rule than less-sound banks. In addition, inflation and output expectations alter the central bank’s decision for its target interest rate, which, in turn, affect the banking system’s deposits and loan supply. Robustness tests, using additional control variables, (i.e., the growth rate of consumption, the ratio loans to total deposits, and the growth rate of total deposits) support the previous results.","PeriodicalId":355111,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Monetary Policy (Topic)","volume":"111 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115037055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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