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Assessing the Impacts of British Monetary Policy in the Advent of the Panic of 1825. (BSc Dissertation, London School of Economics, 2018) 评估1825年恐慌来临时英国货币政策的影响。(学士学位论文,伦敦经济学院,2018)
Pub Date : 2018-05-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3194827
G. Pickering
This dissertation will analyse the degree to which Bank of England note issues influenced the extent of credit expansion by the British banking system during the 1819-26 business cycle. The evidence presented, both theoretical and empirical, tends to suggest that such an influence did indeed exist to a considerable extent, partly due to the use of Bank of England notes by other banks as cash reserves and for clearing balances. It will therefore be argued that credit expansion by the country banks — often cited by previous studies as the primary cause of the Panic of 1825 — seems more likely to have been a proximate cause, with the neglected role of Bank of England note issues as a possible ultimate cause warranting greater consideration.
本论文将分析在1819-26年商业周期中,英格兰银行发行的钞票对英国银行体系信贷扩张程度的影响程度。所提出的理论和实证证据都倾向于表明,这种影响确实在相当大的程度上存在,部分原因是其他银行使用英格兰银行的纸币作为现金储备和清算余额。因此,有人认为,乡村银行的信贷扩张——以前的研究经常将其列为1825年恐慌的主要原因——似乎更有可能是一个近因,而被忽视的英格兰银行发行纸币的作用可能是一个最终原因,值得更多的考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Monetary Policy Obeying the Taylor Principle Turns Prices into Strategic Substitutes 服从泰勒原则的货币政策使价格成为战略替代品
Pub Date : 2018-04-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3157063
Camille Cornand, Frank Heinemann
Monetary policy affects the degree of strategic complementarity in firms' pricing decisions if it responds to the aggregate price level. In normal times, when monopolistic competitive firms increase their prices, the central bank raises interest rates, which lowers consumption demand and creates an incentive for firms to reduce their prices. Thereby, monetary policy reduces the degree of strategic complementarities among firms' pricing decisions and even turns prices into strategic substitutes if the effect of interest rates on demand is sufficiently strong. We show that this condition holds when monetary policy follows the Taylor principle. By contrast, in a liquidity trap where monetary policy is restricted by the zero lower bound, pricing decisions are strategic complements. Our main contribution consists in relating the determinacy and stability of equilibria to strategic substitutability in prices. We discuss the consequences for dynamic adjustment processes and some policy implications. Abstract Monetary policy affects the degree of strategic complementarity in firms' pricing decisions if it responds to the aggregate price level. In normal times, when monopolis-tic competitive firms increase their prices, the central bank raises interest rates, which lowers consumption demand and creates an incentive for firms to reduce their prices. Thereby, monetary policy reduces the degree of strategic complementarities among firms' pricing decisions and even turns prices into strategic substitutes if the effect of interest rates on demand is sufficiently strong. We show that this condition holds when monetary policy follows the Taylor principle. By contrast, in a liquidity trap where monetary policy is restricted by the zero lower bound, pricing decisions are strategic complements. Our main contribution consists in relating the determinacy and stability of equilibria to strategic substitutability in prices. We discuss the consequences for dynamic adjustment processes and some policy implications.
如果货币政策对总价格水平作出反应,则货币政策会影响企业定价决策中的战略互补性程度。在正常时期,当垄断竞争企业提高价格时,央行会提高利率,从而降低消费需求,并为企业降低价格创造动力。因此,如果利率对需求的影响足够强,货币政策降低了企业定价决策之间的战略互补性程度,甚至将价格转变为战略替代品。我们证明,当货币政策遵循泰勒原则时,这种情况成立。相比之下,在货币政策受到零利率下限限制的流动性陷阱中,定价决策是一种战略补充。我们的主要贡献在于将均衡的确定性和稳定性与价格的战略可替代性联系起来。我们讨论了动态调整过程的后果和一些政策含义。货币政策如果对总价格水平作出反应,则会影响企业定价决策中的战略互补性程度。在正常时期,当垄断竞争企业提高价格时,央行就会提高利率,从而降低消费需求,并为企业降低价格创造动力。因此,如果利率对需求的影响足够强,货币政策降低了企业定价决策之间的战略互补性程度,甚至将价格转变为战略替代品。我们证明,当货币政策遵循泰勒原则时,这种情况成立。相比之下,在货币政策受到零利率下限限制的流动性陷阱中,定价决策是一种战略补充。我们的主要贡献在于将均衡的确定性和稳定性与价格的战略可替代性联系起来。我们讨论了动态调整过程的后果和一些政策含义。
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引用次数: 5
Chinese Local Bond Spreads, Monetary Policy and 'Misallocation' 中国地方债券息差、货币政策与“错配”
Pub Date : 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3162353
R. Dekle, Andrew Tsang
We examine the impact of Chinese monetary policies on the excess bond yields of Chinese local bonds issued by Chinese local government entities. We find that an expansion in M2 generally raises the excess yields of the bonds of Chinese local government entities, and the impact is amplified for local bonds issued by local governments that are characterized as having a high degree of existing resource misallocation. Our estimation results confirm that local government bond excess yields can be used as an indicator of the riskiness of Chinese local government debt.
我们研究了中国货币政策对中国地方政府实体发行的中国地方债券超额债券收益率的影响。我们发现,M2的扩张总体上提高了中国地方政府实体债券的超额收益率,并且对具有高度现有资源错配特征的地方政府发行的地方债券的影响被放大。我们的估计结果证实,地方政府债券超额收益率可以作为中国地方政府债务风险的一个指标。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Regional Economic Conditions on U.S. Monetary Policy 区域经济状况对美国货币政策的影响
Pub Date : 2018-02-21 DOI: 10.16980/JITC.14.1.201802.93
Paul J. Pieper, Sang-in Hwang
U.S. monetary policy is determined primarily by the Federal Open Market Committee. This paper examined whether the Reserve Bank president’s voting behavior at the FOMC is influenced by economic conditions in their district, using new and precise estimates of district unemployment and a longer and more recent time series. We find that the district unemployment rate is the primary determinant of Regional Bank Presidents’ probability of dissension from FOMC policy decisions. In our baseline regression, a one percent increase in the district unemployment rate relative to the national rate increases the probability of a tightening dissension by 1.3 percentage points. This result is robust to addition of other explanatory variables and to the use of alternative estimation methods. The study also finds that the rate of dissension by Regional Bank Presidents does not depend upon either the national unemployment rate or national inflation rate. This suggests that Regional Bank Presidents react to these variables in the same manner as the rest of the FOMC.
美国的货币政策主要由联邦公开市场委员会决定。本文使用对地区失业率的最新准确估计和更长的时间序列,研究了储备银行行长在联邦公开市场委员会的投票行为是否受到其所在地区经济状况的影响。我们发现,地区失业率是地区银行行长对联邦公开市场委员会政策决策产生分歧的可能性的主要决定因素。在我们的基线回归中,地区失业率相对于全国失业率每增加1%,紧缩纠纷的可能性就会增加1.3个百分点。该结果对其他解释变量的加入和替代估计方法的使用具有鲁棒性。研究还发现,地区银行行长的争议率既不取决于国家失业率,也不取决于国家通胀率。这表明,地区银行行长对这些变量的反应方式与联邦公开市场委员会的其他成员相同。
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引用次数: 0
Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Portfolio Choice of International Mutual Funds 非常规货币政策与国际共同基金的投资组合选择
Pub Date : 2018-01-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3606408
Gino Cenedese, Ilaf Elard
Unconventional monetary policy (UMP) by the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank affects the geographical portfolio choice of international mutual fund managers. UMP prompts managers of mutual funds to rebalance their portfolios away from the country conducting UMP, and increase their geographical allocation to other developed markets; there is little evidence of rebalancing towards emerging markets. The international spillover effects from UMP announcement surprises are of small economic magnitude, in contrast to the effects of actual UMP operations in the form of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs). The results imply that while not contributing to QE-induced capital flows to emerging markets, mutual fund managers play a role in the transmission of unconventional monetary policy, in particular LSAPs, across developed markets.
美联储、英国央行、日本央行和欧洲央行的非常规货币政策影响了国际共同基金经理的地域投资组合选择。非常规货币政策促使共同基金经理重新平衡其投资组合,远离实施非常规货币政策的国家,并增加对其他发达市场的地域配置;几乎没有证据表明,中国正朝着新兴市场进行再平衡。与大规模资产购买(LSAPs)形式的实际非常规货币政策操作的影响相比,非常规货币政策意外宣布的国际溢出效应的经济规模较小。研究结果表明,共同基金经理虽然没有推动由量化宽松引发的资本流向新兴市场,但在向发达市场传导非常规货币政策(尤其是lsps)方面发挥了作用。
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引用次数: 4
Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality 有限理性下的最优货币政策
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.24149/gwp336
Jonathan Benchimol, Lahcen Bounader
The form of bounded rationality characterizing the representative agent is key in the choice of the optimal monetary policy regime. While inflation targeting prevails for myopia that distorts agents' inflation expectations, price level targeting emerges as the optimal policy under myopia regarding the output gap, revenue, or interest rate. To the extent that bygones are not bygones under price level targeting, rational inflation expectations is a minimal condition for optimality in a behavioral world. Instrument rules implementation of this optimal policy is shown to be infeasible, questioning the ability of simple rules à la Taylor (1993) to assist the conduct of monetary policy. Bounded rationality is not necessarily associated with welfare losses.
代表主体的有限理性特征是最优货币政策制度选择的关键。通货膨胀目标制在近视情况下普遍存在,扭曲了代理人的通货膨胀预期,而价格水平目标制在产出缺口、收入或利率的近视情况下成为最优政策。从某种程度上说,在价格水平目标制下,过去的事情并没有成为过去,理性的通胀预期是行为世界中实现最优的最低条件。工具规则执行这一最优政策被证明是不可行的,质疑简单规则(la Taylor, 1993)协助货币政策实施的能力。有限理性并不一定与福利损失有关。
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引用次数: 11
Transmission of Monetary Policy in Times of High Household Debt 高家庭债务时期货币政策的传导
Pub Date : 2017-12-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3094212
Youngjune Kim, Hyunjoon Lim
This paper explores whether the degree of household indebtedness can affect the effectiveness of monetary policy. We take an interacted panel VAR approach, using a panel of 23 countries, thereby obtaining several interesting findings, such as the responses of consumption and investment to monetary shocks are stronger in high levels of household debt. Furthermore, such responses become larger in a contractionary monetary policy stance rather than in an expansionary one, which suggests that monetary policy shocks have asymmetric effects. We have also found that monetary policy has a relatively larger impact in countries with higher share of adjustable-rate loans. Finally, we have found that when a country is in a high-debt state and in a contractionary policy stance, monetary policy is more powerful in countries with a higher share of adjustable-rate loans. We conjecture that these findings support the presence of a cash-flow channel with respect to the transmission of monetary policy in a high household debt state.
本文探讨了家庭负债程度是否会影响货币政策的有效性。我们采用互动面板VAR方法,使用23个国家的面板,从而获得了几个有趣的发现,例如家庭债务水平高时,消费和投资对货币冲击的反应更强。此外,这种反应在紧缩货币政策立场下比在扩张货币政策立场下更大,这表明货币政策冲击具有不对称效应。我们还发现,在可调利率贷款比例较高的国家,货币政策的影响相对较大。最后,我们发现,当一个国家处于高负债状态并处于紧缩政策立场时,在可调利率贷款比例较高的国家,货币政策的作用更大。我们推测,这些发现支持在高家庭债务状态下货币政策传导方面存在现金流渠道。
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引用次数: 10
Assessing the Effective Stance of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Based Approach 评估货币政策的有效立场:基于因素的方法
Pub Date : 2017-11-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3067911
Christiaan Pattipeilohy, C. Bräuning, Jan Willem van den End, Renske Maas
We present an empirical approach to derive the implicit stance of monetary policy. The indicator can be interpreted as an implied short-term interest rate that is not restricted by the effective lower bound. Factor analysis is used to extract an expectations and term premium component from fitted yield curve data. Based on this, an implied short-term interest rate is constructed, which reflects how much the short-term rate should have fallen to achieve observed drop in long-term yields, assuming it could not have been caused by a fall in the term premium. Following Lombardi and Zhu (2014), we study how the implied rate performs as instrument for monetary policy analysis. Regression analyses suggests that the implied rate provides a good gauge for the identification of non-standard monetary policy shocks, and has responded significantly to financial stress as opposed to the output and inflation gap.
我们提出了一种实证方法来推导货币政策的隐含立场。该指标可解释为不受有效下限限制的隐含短期利率。因子分析用于从拟合收益率曲线数据中提取预期和期限溢价成分。在此基础上,构建出隐含短期利率,它反映了短期利率应下降多少才能实现观察到的长期收益率下降,假定这不是由期限溢价下降引起的。继 Lombardi 和 Zhu(2014 年)之后,我们研究了隐含利率作为货币政策分析工具的表现。回归分析表明,隐含利率为识别非标准货币政策冲击提供了一个很好的衡量标准,与产出和通胀缺口相比,隐含利率对金融压力的反应显著。
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引用次数: 7
Policy Rules for Capital Controls 资本管制政策规则
Pub Date : 2017-09-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3040092
G. Pasricha
This paper attempts to borrow the tradition of estimating policy reaction functions in monetary policy literature and apply it to capital controls policy literature. Using a novel weekly dataset on capital controls policy actions in 21 emerging economies over the period 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2015, I examine the competitiveness and macroprudential motivations for capital control policies. I introduce a new proxy for competitiveness motivations: the weighted appreciation of an emerging-market currency against its top five trade competitors. The analysis shows that past emerging-market policy systematically responds to both competitiveness and macroprudential motivations. The choice of instruments is also systematic: policy-makers respond to competitiveness concerns by using both instruments - inflow tightening and outflow easing. They use only inflow tightening in response to macroprudential concerns. I also find evidence that that policy is acyclical to foreign debt but is countercyclical to domestic bank credit to the private non-financial sector. The adoption of explicit financial stability mandates by central banks or the creation of inter-agency financial stability councils increased the weight of macroprudential factors in the use of capital controls policies. Countries with higher exchange rate pass-through to export prices are more responsive to competitiveness concerns.
本文试图借用货币政策文献中估计政策反应函数的传统,并将其应用于资本管制政策文献。利用2001年1月1日至2015年12月31日期间21个新兴经济体资本管制政策行动的新颖每周数据集,我研究了资本管制政策的竞争力和宏观审慎动机。我引入了一种衡量竞争力动机的新指标:新兴市场货币对其五大贸易竞争对手的加权升值。分析表明,过去的新兴市场政策系统地响应了竞争力和宏观审慎动机。工具的选择也是系统性的:政策制定者通过使用两种工具——收紧流入和放松流出——来应对竞争力问题。他们只使用收紧流入来应对宏观审慎的担忧。我还发现,有证据表明,该政策对外债是非周期性的,但对国内银行对私人非金融部门的信贷却是逆周期的。中央银行采取明确的金融稳定授权,或成立机构间金融稳定委员会,增加了宏观审慎因素在使用资本管制政策中的分量。汇率传导到出口价格的国家对竞争力的担忧反应更积极。
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引用次数: 17
Monetary Policy Transmission and Trade-Offs in the United States: Old and New 美国的货币政策传导与权衡:新旧
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3102346
Boris Hofmann, G. Peersman
This study shows that, in the United States, the effects of monetary policy on credit and housing markets have become considerably stronger relative to the impact on GDP since the mid-1980s, while the effects on inflation have become weaker. Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary policy may therefore have become associated with greater fluctuations in credit and housing markets, whereas stabilizing credit and house prices may have become less costly in terms of macroeconomic volatility. These changes in the aggregate impact of monetary policy can be explained by several important changes in the monetary transmission mechanism and in the composition of macroeconomic and credit aggregates. In particular, the stronger impact of monetary policy on credit is driven by a much higher responsiveness of mortgage credit and a larger share of mortgages in total credit since the 1980s.
这项研究表明,在美国,自1980年代中期以来,货币政策对信贷和住房市场的影响相对于对国内总产值的影响已变得相当强烈,而对通货膨胀的影响已变得较弱。因此,通过货币政策实现宏观经济稳定可能与信贷和住房市场的更大波动联系在一起,而就宏观经济波动而言,稳定信贷和房价的代价可能较小。货币政策总体影响的这些变化可以用货币传导机制以及宏观经济和信贷总量构成的几个重要变化来解释。特别是,自20世纪80年代以来,抵押贷款信贷的反应性大大提高,抵押贷款在总信贷中所占的份额也有所增加,这推动了货币政策对信贷的更强影响。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
PSN: Other Monetary Policy (Topic)
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