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Sticky Wages, Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy Multipliers 粘性工资、货币政策和财政政策乘数
Pub Date : 2017-03-27 DOI: 10.20955/wp.2017.007
Bill Dupor, Jingchao Li, Rong Li
This paper demonstrates how adding nominal wage rigidity to a standard sticky price model can create a mechanism by which increases in government spending cause increases in consumption. The increase in output arising from government purchases puts upward pressure on the price level. At a fixed short-run nominal wage, this bids down the real wage, which leads producers to increase labor demand. Increased labor demand allows households to both finance the tax bill associated with the government spending as well as increase their own consumption. Our approach does not rely upon existing ingredients for generating large fiscal multipliers, such as the zero lower bound, borrowing constrained households or an interaction between consumption and government purchases in the utility function.
本文展示了在标准粘性价格模型中增加名义工资刚性如何创造出一种机制,通过这种机制,政府支出的增加会导致消费的增加。政府采购带来的产出增加给物价水平带来了上行压力。在固定的短期名义工资下,这压低了实际工资,导致生产者增加劳动力需求。劳动力需求的增加使家庭既可以为与政府支出相关的税收账单提供资金,又可以增加自己的消费。我们的方法不依赖于产生大量财政乘数的现有因素,如零利率下限、借贷限制家庭或效用函数中消费与政府购买之间的相互作用。
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引用次数: 5
A Behavioral New Keynesian Model 行为新凯恩斯主义模型
Pub Date : 2016-12-01 DOI: 10.1257/AER.20162005
X. Gabaix
This paper analyzes how bounded rationality affects monetary and fiscal policy via an empirically relevant enrichment of the New Keynesian model. It models agents’ partial myopia toward distant atypical events using a new microfounded “cognitive discounting” parameter. Compared to the rational model, (i) there is no forward guidance puzzle; (ii) the Taylor principle changes: with passive monetary policy but enough myopia equilibria are determinate and economies stable; (iii) the zero lower bound is much less costly; (iv) price-level targeting is not optimal; (v) fiscal stimulus is effective; (vi) the model is “ neo-Fisherian” in the long run, Keynesian in the short run. (JEL E12, E31, E43, E52, E62, E70)
本文通过丰富新凯恩斯主义模型的经验,分析了有限理性如何影响货币和财政政策。它使用一个新的微观“认知折扣”参数来模拟代理人对遥远非典型事件的部分近视。与理性模型相比,(1)不存在前瞻引导难题;(ii)泰勒原则发生变化:采取被动货币政策,但足够的短视均衡是确定的,经济稳定;(iii)零利率下限的成本要低得多;(iv)价格水平目标不理想;(五)财政刺激措施有效;(vi)该模型长期是“新费舍尔主义”,短期是凯恩斯主义。(e12, e31, e43, e52, e62, e70)
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引用次数: 314
Monetary Penalties in China and Japan 中国和日本的罚款
Pub Date : 2016-10-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2857044
Koren W. Wong-Ervin, D. Ginsburg, A. Slonim, Bruce H. Kobayashi, Joshua D. Wright
Recent solicitations for comments on monetary penalties in China and Japan highlight opportunities to improve the deterrent effect of antitrust law by more closely aligning penalties with economic theory and evidence. When monetary penalties are not based upon economic analysis and clearly linked to identified harms, they are likely to generate costly errors, either by overdetering welfare-enhancing behavior or underdetering anticompetitive behavior.On June 17, 2016, China’s Anti-Monopoly Commission of the State Council requested comments on Draft Guidelines issued by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) for the calculation of illegal gains (disgorgement) and setting of fines issued. On July 13, 2016, the Japan Fair Trade Commission (JFTC) requested comments on introducing flexibility into their administrative surcharge system, developing a settlement program, and reforming due process in conjunction with surcharge reform. Both proposed monetary penalty systems would benefit from a deeper grounding in economics. The NDRC’s Draft Guidelines provided only for the optional use of economic analysis in calculating illegal gains and appear to create a presumption that disgorgement would apply in addition to fines in nearly all cases. The JFTC’s consultation acknowledged that the current inflexible surcharge system could give rise to “unreasonable or unfair” surcharges, but did not require economic analysis to determine appropriate monetary penalties. In both countries, monetary penalties are applied broadly and are not based upon identified harms, although the JFTC’s consultation invited comments on whether differentiation by type of infringement was necessary.
中国和日本最近就罚款问题征求意见的活动突显出,通过将罚款与经济理论和证据更紧密地结合起来,可以提高反垄断法的威慑效果。如果金钱惩罚不是基于经济分析,也不是与已确定的危害明确联系起来,它们很可能会产生代价高昂的错误,要么是过度阻止提高福利的行为,要么是对反竞争行为的阻止不足。2016年6月17日,中国国务院反垄断委员会就国家发展和改革委员会发布的《关于违法所得(追缴)计算和罚款数额的指导意见(征求意见稿)》征求意见。2016年7月13日,日本公平贸易委员会(JFTC)就在附加费改革中引入行政附加费制度的灵活性、制定解决方案以及改革正当程序征求意见。两种提议的罚金制度都将受益于更深层次的经济学基础。国家发改委的《指导意见草案》只规定在计算非法所得时可选择使用经济分析,似乎造成了一种假设,即除了罚款之外,几乎所有案件都将适用追缴。日本联邦贸易委员会的咨询承认,目前不灵活的附加费制度可能导致“不合理或不公平”的附加费,但不需要进行经济分析来确定适当的罚款。在这两个国家,罚款适用范围很广,并不是基于已确定的损害,尽管JFTC的磋商邀请就是否有必要按侵权类型进行区分提出意见。
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引用次数: 2
International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises 美国货币政策意外的国际传导
Pub Date : 2016-07-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2830292
Kyunghun Kim
This paper examines the international transmission of the US monetary policy surprises. The US monetary policy surprises are defined by the gap between the actual fed fund rate and its forecast estimated a quarter ahead. The US monetary policy surprises are used as external shocks to investigate the spillover effects of policy uncertainty on other economies and address the endogeneity problem. The US is the base country where the monetary policy uncertainty shocks take place. I construct the each country’s international linkages such as the equity market and debt market linkages vis-a-vis the epicenter, US to investigate how the shocks are transmitted to other countries through those linkages. The empirical result shows that the equity market integration is associated with the business cycle divergence and the debt market integration is associated with the business cycle co-movement when the US policy uncertainty index is low. However, the equity market integration is associated with the business cycle comovement and the debt market integration plays insignificant role in transmitting the monetary policy surprises when the US policy uncertainty index is high.
本文考察了美国货币政策意外的国际传导。美国货币政策的意外是由实际联邦基金利率与一个季度前的预期利率之差决定的。美国货币政策意外被用作外部冲击,以研究政策不确定性对其他经济体的溢出效应,并解决内生性问题。美国是货币政策不确定性冲击的发生地。我构建了每个国家的国际联系,如股票市场和债券市场与震中美国的联系,以研究冲击如何通过这些联系传播到其他国家。实证结果表明,当美国政策不确定性指数较低时,股票市场整合与经济周期发散相关,债务市场整合与经济周期共动相关。然而,当美国政策不确定性指数较高时,股票市场整合与经济周期波动相关,债券市场整合对货币政策意外的传导作用不显著。
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引用次数: 0
Spillovers from Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: A Global VAR Approach 日本非常规货币政策对亚洲新兴市场的溢出效应:一个全球VAR方法
Pub Date : 2016-05-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781484361689.001
Giovanni Ganelli, Nour Tawk
We use a Global VAR model to study spillovers from the Bank of Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) on emerging Asia.1 Our main result is that, despite an appreciation of their currencies vis-a-vis the yen, the impact on emerging Asia’s GDP tended to be positive and significant. Our results suggest that the positive effect of QQE on expectations, by improving confidence, more than offset any negative exchange rate spillover due to expenditure switching from domestic demand to Japanese goods. They also suggest that spillovers from QQE might have worked mainly through the impact of expectations and improved confidence, captured by increases in equity prices, rather than through balance sheet adjustments which might have been captured by movements in the monetary base.
我们使用全球VAR模型来研究日本央行量化和定性宽松(QQE)对亚洲新兴市场的溢出效应。1我们的主要结果是,尽管日本货币相对于日元升值,但对亚洲新兴市场GDP的影响往往是积极而显著的。我们的研究结果表明,通过提高信心,量化宽松对预期的积极影响超过了由于支出从国内需求转向日本商品而导致的任何负面汇率溢出效应。它们还表明,QQE的溢出效应可能主要是通过预期的影响和信心的改善(体现在股价上涨上),而不是通过资产负债表调整(可能体现在基础货币的变动上)发挥作用。
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引用次数: 8
How Friedman and Schwartz Became Monetarists 弗里德曼和施瓦茨是如何成为货币主义者的
Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2771357
J. Lothian, G. Tavlas
During the late-1940s and the early-1950s Milton Friedman favored a rule under which fiscal policy would be used to generate changes in the money supply with the aim of stabilizing output at full employment. He believed that the economy is inherently unstable because of endogenous movements in money supply under a fractional-reserve banking system. In her work, Anna Schwartz downplayed the role of monetary factors in business cycles and the role of monetary policy as a stabilization tool. We show how the joint work of Friedman and Schwartz from 1948 to 1958 led Friedman to view money as the “primary mover” of the business cycle and underpinned his shift to a rule based on money growth so that discretionary monetary policy would not act as a source of destabilizing shocks. The decisive factor in the evolution of Friedman’s thinking was the empirical confirmation that the Great Depression had been both initiated and deepened by the Fed. The largely neglected influence of Clark Warburton on the evolution of Friedman’s thinking provides a missing -- but crucial -- link in explaining Friedman’s recognition of the role of monetary factors in the Great Depression and of the Fed’s ability to offset the destabilizing effects produced by shifts from deposits into currency under a fractional-reserve banking system.
在20世纪40年代末和50年代初,米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)赞成一种规则,在这种规则下,财政政策将用于产生货币供应的变化,目的是在充分就业的情况下稳定产出。他认为,在部分准备金银行体系下,由于货币供应的内生波动,经济本身就不稳定。在她的工作中,安娜·施瓦茨淡化了货币因素在商业周期中的作用,以及货币政策作为稳定工具的作用。我们展示了弗里德曼和施瓦茨从1948年到1958年的共同工作如何使弗里德曼将货币视为商业周期的“主要推动者”,并支持他转向基于货币增长的规则,以便自由裁量的货币政策不会成为不稳定冲击的来源。弗里德曼思想演变的决定性因素是经验证实了大萧条是由美联储引发和深化的。克拉克·沃伯顿对弗里德曼思想演变的影响在很大程度上被忽视,这为解释弗里德曼对货币因素在大萧条中的作用的认识以及美联储抵消从存款转向货币所产生的不稳定影响的能力提供了一个缺失的——但至关重要的——环节在部分准备金银行体系下。
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引用次数: 25
The Equity Premium, Long-Run Risk, & Optimal Monetary Policy 股权溢价、长期风险与最优货币政策
Pub Date : 2015-09-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2670122
Anthony M. Diercks
In this study I examine the welfare implications of monetary policy by constructing a novel New Keynesian model that properly accounts for asset pricing facts. I find that the Ramsey optimal monetary policy yields an inflation rate above 3.5% and inflation volatility close to 1.5%. The same model calibrated to a counterfactually low equity premium implies an optimal inflation rate close to zero and inflation volatility less than 10 basis points, consistent with much of the existing literature. Relatively higher optimal inflation is due to the greater welfare costs of recessions associated with matching the equity premium. Additionally, the second order approximation allows monetary policy to have positive welfare effects on the labor share of income. I show that this channel is generally absent in standard macroeconomic models that do not take risk into account. Furthermore, the interest rate rule that comes closest to matching the dynamics of the optimal Ramsey policy puts a sizable weight on capital growth along with the price of capital, as it emphasizes stabilizing the medium to long term over the very short run.
在这项研究中,我通过构建一个新的新凯恩斯主义模型来检验货币政策对福利的影响,该模型恰当地解释了资产定价事实。我发现,在拉姆齐最优货币政策下,通胀率高于3.5%,通胀波动率接近1.5%。根据与事实相反的低股票溢价校准的同一模型表明,最优通胀率接近于零,通胀波动性小于10个基点,这与现有的大部分文献一致。相对较高的最优通胀是由于与股票溢价相匹配的衰退带来的更高福利成本。此外,二阶近似允许货币政策对收入的劳动份额产生积极的福利效应。我指出,在不考虑风险的标准宏观经济模型中,这一渠道通常不存在。此外,利率规则最接近于最优拉姆齐政策的动态,它对资本增长和资本价格都有相当大的影响,因为它强调在短期内稳定中长期。
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引用次数: 10
Alternatives to FDIC Deposit Insurance FDIC存款保险的替代方案
Pub Date : 2015-08-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2568767
Thomas L. Hogan, Kristin Johnson
This paper considers potential alternatives to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) system of deposit insurance in the United States. We review the international and historical literature on deposit insurance which finds higher government involvement in the deposit insurance system increases the likelihood of bank failures and financial crises. We discuss three potential changes to the FDIC system. First, deposit insurance could be government mandated but privately administered as is done in most developed countries. Second, coverage levels could be lowered and supplemented by currently available private issuers. Third, the mandate on deposit insurance could be lifted and the supply of insurance privatized. Empirical evidence indicates these changes would reduce bank failures and financial crises.
本文考虑了美国联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)存款保险制度的潜在替代方案。我们回顾了关于存款保险的国际和历史文献,发现政府对存款保险制度的高度参与增加了银行倒闭和金融危机的可能性。我们将讨论联邦存款保险公司体系的三个潜在变化。首先,存款保险可以由政府强制执行,但由私人管理,就像大多数发达国家所做的那样。其次,可以降低覆盖水平,并由目前可用的私人发行人补充。第三,可以取消对存款保险的强制要求,并将保险的供应私有化。经验证据表明,这些变化将减少银行倒闭和金融危机。
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引用次数: 3
Macroeconomic and Macroprudential Policy Making 宏观经济和宏观审慎政策制定
Pub Date : 2014-11-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2526742
A. Milne
This short and preliminary paper considers the relationship between fiscal, monetary and prudential policy instruments. It argues that the currently employed instruments (government borrowing, expansion of central bank balance sheets) do not address the underlying reason for slow global growth, the high levels of leverage in the (public and private) non-financial sector. It suggests that addressing this problem requires ‘monetary expansion by gift’ (also known as helicopter money). It further argues that this should be treated from an accounting perspective so that it does not result in any deterioration in central bank net worth and employment of this instrument should be independent of day-to-day political control and therefore conducted by an independent central bank as one of the basic monetary policy instruments. It also argues that macroprudential policies will then be needed to restrain unsustainable credit expansions and are operationally are best though as a branch of large exposure regulation, focusing on the exposure of institutions to systemic risks such as commercial property prices or maturity mismatch.
这篇简短的初步论文考虑了财政、货币和审慎政策工具之间的关系。它认为,目前使用的工具(政府借款、央行资产负债表扩张)没有解决全球增长缓慢的根本原因,即(公共和私人)非金融部门的高杠杆水平。研究表明,解决这一问题需要“通过赠予货币扩张”(也被称为“直升机撒钱”)。它进一步认为,这应该从会计的角度来处理,这样它就不会导致中央银行净值的任何恶化,这种工具的使用应该独立于日常的政治控制,因此由独立的中央银行作为基本货币政策工具之一进行。它还认为,随后将需要宏观审慎政策来抑制不可持续的信贷扩张,并且在操作上是最好的,尽管作为大型风险敞口监管的一个分支,重点关注机构对商业房地产价格或期限错配等系统性风险的敞口。
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引用次数: 0
Hysteresis in Potential Output and Monetary Policy 潜在产出的滞后性与货币政策
Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12050
D. Kienzler, K. Schmid
We show that actively stabilizing economic activity plays a more prominent role in the conduct of monetary policy when potential output is subject to hysteresis. We augment a basic New Keynesian model by hysteresis in potential output and contrast simulation outcomes of this extended model to the standard model. We find that considering hysteresis allows for a more realistic propagation of macroeconomic shocks and persistent movements in output after monetary shocks. Our central policy implication of active output gap stabilization arises from stability analyses and welfare considerations.
我们的研究表明,当潜在产出存在滞后性时,积极稳定经济活动在货币政策的实施中发挥的作用更为突出。我们通过潜在产出的滞后来增强基本的新凯恩斯模型,并将该扩展模型的模拟结果与标准模型进行对比。我们发现,考虑滞后性可以使宏观经济冲击的传播和货币冲击后产出的持续波动更加现实。积极产出缺口稳定的核心政策含义源于稳定性分析和福利考虑。
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引用次数: 13
期刊
PSN: Other Monetary Policy (Topic)
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