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Trend analysis and prediction of temperature change in the continental, Thailand 泰国大陆气温变化趋势分析与预测
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/gsgd2301065p
N. Phumkokrux
Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) is one of global warming indicator which using only daily minimum temperature (TMin) and daily maximum temperature (TMax) for calculation. The study aims 1) to analyse trend of TMax, TMin and DTR over the early period of 21st century (1987 - 2020) and 2) to forecast and analyse trend of TMax, TMin and DTR over the mid and late period of 21st century (2021 - 2040 and 2041-2100) using MIROC5 (rcp85) model, cooperated with EQM Statistical downscaling method. TMax, TMin, and and DTR trends of all periods were investigated by Mann Kendall Trend Test and Sen?s slope, then presented in the form of spatial maps. The most of TMax and TMin trends for all season and all regions tended to be increasing from year by year with the large increasing of changing in Northern and Northeast region especially in Winter, except for the last period which had a large increasing in Summer. However, DTR trends were quietly fluctuated with the large decreasing of changing in Eastern and Southern part, but the trends become to increase in the last period. A large DTR decreasing of changing usually occurred in Winter and Rainy season. The TMax and TMin of all periods were expanding year by year and leading the DTR decreased in the first and second period, however, a changing of TMax and TMin rate leaded DTR increasing for the last period. It is a good signal for heat transfer performance which can help the earth cooling in night time.
日温度差(DTR)是仅使用日最低温度(TMin)和日最高温度(TMax)计算的全球变暖指标之一。研究目的:1)分析21世纪前期(1987 - 2020)的TMax、TMin和DTR的变化趋势;2)利用MIROC5 (rcp85)模型,结合EQM统计降尺度方法,预测和分析21世纪中后期(2021 - 2040和2041-2100)的TMax、TMin和DTR的变化趋势。各时期TMax、TMin和DTR趋势采用Mann Kendall趋势检验和Sen?S斜率,然后以空间地图的形式呈现。各季节和各区域的TMax和TMin变化趋势大部分呈逐年增加的趋势,除末期夏季增加较多外,北方和东北地区的变化在冬季增加较多。DTR变化趋势呈平稳波动趋势,东部和南部变化幅度较大,后期呈上升趋势。DTR变化的大幅度减少通常发生在冬季和雨季。各时期的TMax和TMin均呈逐年增大趋势,并在第一、第二时期导致DTR下降,但TMax和TMin速率的变化导致DTR在最后一个时期上升。这是一个很好的传热信号,可以帮助地球在夜间降温。
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引用次数: 0
Residential fencing and security aspect: The case of the new city of Ali Mendjeli in Constantine (Algeria) 住宅围栏与安全方面:以阿尔及利亚君士坦丁Ali Mendjeli新城为例
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/gsgd2301107c
Abdelhafid Chekiel, Nassira Benhassine-Touam
Our research article focuses on the security aspect in the living quarters of collective housing and aims to determine the main reasons for the residential fencing. Taking as a case study the new city of Ali Mendjeli, more specifically the 434 housing units in the neigh-bourhood unit No. 05, from a participatory social housing program. It is divided into two sections; the southern section, which consists of 242 housing units was the subject of our investigation. To fulfil the objectives of the research and get reliable results, we chose to work with a mixed-method research approach. Firstly, we used a quantitative method based on a questionnaire and then a qualitative method based on interviews and direct observation. The results of our survey revealed that the security aspect is a major concern for the inhabitants of the district, which leaded them to choose the residential fencing in an informal residentialisation process of the studied district, and by extrapolation of the surrounding districts. We also noted that the type of security sought as a top priority was for the dwellings, more than vehicles or persons, and the main obstacle to fencing work was financing. It seems to us that it would be right for the relevant authorities to take this aspect into consideration during urban upgrading processes but also in new housing programs so that this type of residential fencing integrates the upstream the study stage of this type of project.
我们的研究文章集中在集体住宅生活区的安全方面,旨在确定住宅围栏的主要原因。以Ali Mendjeli新城为例,更具体地说,是参与式社会住房项目中05号社区单元的434套住房。它分为两个部分;南段由242个住宅单元组成,是我们调查的对象。为了实现研究目标并获得可靠的结果,我们选择了混合方法研究方法。首先,我们采用了基于问卷的定量方法,然后是基于访谈和直接观察的定性方法。我们的调查结果显示,安全方面是该地区居民的主要关注点,这导致他们在研究地区的非正式居住过程中选择住宅围栏,并通过外推周边地区。我们还注意到,作为最优先事项寻求的安全类型是住宅,而不是车辆或人员,围栏工作的主要障碍是资金问题。在我们看来,相关部门在城市升级过程中考虑到这方面是正确的,在新的住房计划中也是如此,这样这种类型的住宅围栏就可以整合到这类项目的上游研究阶段。
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引用次数: 0
No more mr. NIS guy: Investigating corrosive capital in the Serbian energy industry 不再是国家情报局的家伙:调查塞尔维亚能源行业的腐蚀性资本
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/gsgd2301355b
Reade Ben
This paper examines the question: what does corrosive capital mean, and what enables it in Serbia? Through the design of an analytical framework and robust literature review, this paper adds value to an understudied topic in International Political Economy by giving rigidity to a term that is generally used as an ostensive buzzword. This paper deter-mines that projects are corrosive to the extent that they benefit elites at the public's expense. Corrosive elements can exist in both a project?s preliminary phases and post-completion. This paper hypothesizes that corrosive elements are introduced to projects via both domestic and foreign elites. This paper applies its framework to an analysis of Serbia?s infamous 2008 omnibus energy agreement with Russia (the Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) deal). This paper finds the NIS deal contained a plethora of corrosive elements (political, legal, ethical, economic, ecological) that are still consequential, even today. These elements appear at different points in the NIS deal?s life-cycle. Each element generates additional corrosive elements. The positively reinforcing nature of corrosive capital suggests that upstream action can possibly avert devastating consequences, but only when critical, elite actors can be identified and controlled. This paper peels back a layer of existing knowledge surrounding corrosive capital and state capture. It demonstrates that synergistic cooperation between foreign and domestic elites infects projects with corrosive elements that generate reverberating corrosive consequences. Like a cancer, corrosiveness spreads horizontally (across social, political, and economic spaces) and vertically (overtime). Prevention is preferable to mitigation.
本文探讨了这样一个问题:什么是腐蚀性资本,是什么使它在塞尔维亚得以存在?通过分析框架的设计和强有力的文献综述,本文通过赋予通常用作实指流行语的术语刚性,为国际政治经济学中一个未被充分研究的主题增加了价值。本文认为,如果项目以牺牲公众利益为代价,使精英受益,那么这些项目就具有腐蚀性。腐蚀元素可以同时存在于两个项目中?S初步阶段和竣工后。本文假设腐蚀元素是通过国内外精英引入工程的。本文将其框架应用于塞尔维亚?中国2008年与俄罗斯签署的臭名昭著的综合能源协议(Naftna Industrija Srbije协议)。本文发现,国家情报院的交易包含了过多的腐蚀性因素(政治、法律、伦理、经济、生态),即使在今天,这些因素仍然是重要的。这些因素出现在NIS交易的不同地方?生命周期。每个元素都会产生额外的腐蚀性元素。腐蚀性资本的积极强化性质表明,上游行动有可能避免破坏性后果,但前提是关键的精英行为者能够被识别和控制。本文揭开了围绕腐蚀性资本和国家俘获的一层现有知识。它表明,国外和国内精英之间的协同合作使项目受到腐蚀性因素的影响,从而产生反作用的腐蚀性后果。就像癌症一样,腐蚀性横向传播(跨越社会、政治和经济空间),纵向传播(加班)。预防胜于减轻。
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引用次数: 0
Conceptual model for measuring and predicting residential satisfaction in housing-led urban regeneration in post-socialist cities 后社会主义城市以住房为主导的城市更新中居民满意度测量与预测的概念模型
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/gsgd2202133n
N. Nzimande
Residential satisfaction is a multi-dimensional concept that is the degree to which residents feel their place of residence helps them achieve their desired goal. The research aims to develop a holistic model that can predict and measure residential satisfaction in regenerated housing in post-socialist cities. The holistic model for residential satisfaction postulates objective and subjective measurements after a brief review of theories and research gaps within the literature. This paper reports on the conceptualization of the model, with findings to validate this model being reported later. It is anticipated that the results of this model will assist key stakeholders to consider variables that are important in ensuring residential satisfaction within post-socialist cities.
居住满意度是一个多维度的概念,它是指居民感觉他们的居住地帮助他们实现预期目标的程度。本研究旨在建立一个整体模型,以预测和衡量后社会主义城市再生住宅的居住满意度。住宅满意度的整体模型假设客观和主观测量后,简要回顾理论和研究差距的文献。本文报告了模型的概念化,稍后将报告验证该模型的发现。预计该模型的结果将有助于关键利益相关者考虑对确保后社会主义城市的居住满意度至关重要的变量。
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引用次数: 0
Cultural peculiarities and housing production in Algeria. Djelfa area condition 阿尔及利亚的文化特点和住房生产。杰尔法地区情况
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/gsgd2202239a
Atmani Abderrahmane, Boudjamea Khalfallah, Abid Sebei
The current residential production in Algeria is diverse, but is relatively similar in terms of design. The similarity in design has become inevitable, due to the scarcity of realestate, the increasing demand for housing, and the rise of the urban population. Because of the aforementioned reasons, we notice that the peculiarities of the local communities that structure the Algerian societies are not taken into account. The urban design of the local communities (Kabyle, Mzabi, Shawi, Targui...) show evident similarities overall; however, some details are imposed by the local culture of each community. Those details are absent in contemporary residential production. Through this study, we aim to identify a number of cultural peculiarities of the local Naily community in the region of Djelfa, the ways these peculiarities reflect on the local traditional construction, and the set of mechanisms for inclusion in contemporary housing production. The study is divided in two parts: a theoretical part, in which we highlighted the interrelationship between cultural peculiarities, urbanism and the local community, and an applied part in which we employed the Delphi technique and chose the region of Djelfa as a case study. The results show the following: 43 answers through the application of Delphi Method by experts distributed on the three questions asked which in general provided important pieces of information, through which we were able to access the set of cultural peculiarities of the local community in the region of Djelfa, the reflection of these peculiarities on the local construction and how to include some solutions to address the current residential production in a way that protects the cultural peculiarities of the Naily community in the region of Djelfa.
阿尔及利亚目前的住宅生产是多样化的,但在设计方面相对相似。由于房地产的稀缺,住房需求的增加,以及城市人口的增加,设计上的相似性已经成为不可避免的。由于上述原因,我们注意到构成阿尔及利亚社会的地方社区的特点没有得到考虑。当地社区(Kabyle, Mzabi, Shawi, Targui…)的城市设计总体上显示出明显的相似性;然而,有些细节是由每个社区的当地文化强加的。这些细节在当代住宅生产中是不存在的。通过这项研究,我们的目标是确定Djelfa地区当地Naily社区的一些文化特征,这些特征对当地传统建筑的反映方式,以及在当代住房生产中包含的一整套机制。研究分为两部分:理论部分,我们强调文化特性、城市主义和当地社区之间的相互关系;应用部分,我们采用德尔菲技术,选择Djelfa地区作为案例研究。结果表明:通过应用德尔菲法,专家就所提出的三个问题给出了43个答案,这些问题通常提供了重要的信息,通过这些问题,我们能够了解杰尔法地区当地社区的一套文化特点。这些特点在当地建筑中的反映,以及如何在保护Djelfa地区Naily社区文化特色的同时,为当前的住宅生产提供一些解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
GIS application in analysis of threat of forest fires and landslides in the Svrljiski Timok basin (Serbia) GIS在塞尔维亚Svrljiski Timok盆地森林火灾和滑坡威胁分析中的应用
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/gsgd2201107c
V. Curic, Uroš Durlević, Nemanja Ristić, Ivan Novković, Nina Cegar
Forest fires and landslides represent very frequent natural disasters in Serbia. The Svrljiski Timok river basin is located in the southeastern part of the Republic of Serbia, and according to natural characteristics it represents a significant area for geohazard study. The task of the research is to analyse natural and anthropogenic condition by determining locations which are susceptible to forest fires and landslides in order to protect the population and infrastructure. Using Geographic Informational Systems (GIS) and available data, their processing was started for the susceptibility of the terrain to forest fires using the RC index. For the analysis of the territory occurrence of landslides the statistical Probability method (PM) and Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) were used. The obtained results indicate that 20.81% of the area of the Svrljiski Timok basin has a very high susceptibility to forest fires, while 29.21% of the terrain is highly susceptible to landslides. The results gained processing the RC index can be applied to adequate risk management of forest fires, improvement of monitoring and early warning systems in the study area. Sustainable management of agricultural land and improvement of environmental protection can be implemented on the basis of the obtained results for the most endangered areas of landslides.
森林火灾和山体滑坡是塞尔维亚非常频繁的自然灾害。Svrljiski Timok河流域位于塞尔维亚共和国东南部,根据其自然特征,它是一个重要的地质灾害研究区域。这项研究的任务是通过确定易受森林火灾和山体滑坡影响的地点来分析自然和人为条件,以保护人口和基础设施。利用地理信息系统(GIS)和现有数据,利用RC指数开始处理地形对森林火灾的敏感性。采用统计概率法(PM)和滑坡易感性指数法(LSI)对滑坡发生区域进行分析。结果表明,Svrljiski Timok盆地有20.81%的面积极易发生森林火灾,29.21%的面积极易发生山体滑坡。处理RC指数的结果可应用于研究地区的森林火灾风险管理,改善监测和预警系统。在此基础上,可以对滑坡最危险地区实施农业用地的可持续管理和环境保护的改善。
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引用次数: 1
Towards sustainable tourism panning in Bou Saâda, Algeria 阿尔及利亚bousa<e:1>达的可持续旅游规划
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/gsgd2202267b
Fatima Berreghioua, Boudjamea Khalfallah
The city of Bou Sa?da is one of the Algerian cities that have diverse tourism resources, but it has not been adopted as a premier tourist spot nor has it benefited from the tourism programs established within the national strategy for sustainable tourism development for Horizons 2030, which made the tourism weak compared to other Algerian regions that have similar tourism elements. This study aims to evaluate the existing tourism strategy to address the shortcomings and provide solutions by focusing on four variables: tourist destination, tourism industry, the tourist market, and actors in tourism. We have relied on the following techniques: SWOT analysis to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the tourism sector in Bou Sa?da, MCDA Analysis using AHP for spatial planning for the future tourism industry, and a questionnaire form distributed to the residents, the tourists and the experts to take their suggestions and use them in guiding the tourism planning process. The results of the study proved that there is a weakness in the tourism planning process in the city of Bou Sa?da, which negatively affects the tourism traffic, that is still weak compared to the qualifications it has, which if exploited according to a wellthought-out strategy, the city will become a targeted tourist destination.
博萨市?达达是阿尔及利亚拥有多种旅游资源的城市之一,但它既没有被采纳为主要旅游景点,也没有从国家可持续旅游发展战略中制定的旅游计划中受益,这使得旅游业与阿尔及利亚其他具有类似旅游元素的地区相比薄弱。本研究以旅游目的地、旅游产业、旅游市场、旅游行为主体四个变量为研究对象,分析现有旅游战略的不足,并提出相应的对策。我们依靠以下技术:SWOT分析,以确定优势,劣势,机会和威胁的旅游部门在博萨?利用层次分析法对未来旅游产业空间规划进行分析,并以问卷的形式向居民、游客和专家发放问卷,听取他们的建议,并将其用于指导旅游规划过程。研究结果证明,博萨市在旅游规划过程中存在薄弱环节。达,这对旅游交通产生了负面影响,这与它的资质相比仍然很弱,如果根据一个深思熟虑的战略来开发,这个城市将成为一个有针对性的旅游目的地。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring inter-neighborhood disparities by tribal origin and academic achievement: Case of Bousaâda, Algeria 以部落出身和学术成就衡量社区间差异:以阿尔及利亚bousa<e:1>达为例
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/gsgd2202159t
Saad Thaibaoui, Boudjamea Khalfallah, Hafid Layeb
The phenomenon of inter-neighbourhood disparities is taking on worrying proportions in the city of Boussa?da. The quantitative study of disparities provides us with alarming figures on the social and spatial dimensions. Our research has shown a negative correlation between the indices of residential segregation and school success rates, specifically with a strong residential segregation through the overcrowded peripheral neighbourhoods, and a low level of school facilities. The study of inter-neighbourhood disparities in the city of Boussa?da, affirmed a strong residential segregation with 0.780 as the value of the segregation index and ghettos evaluated at 6 on the scale of Poulssen. The other result at the level of school facilities with indices of zonal aptitude varying between 0.41 and 1.02 on the neighbourhoods of ?Maitar and Sidi Slimane? on a scale of 0 to 5. These figures are alarming for local authorities and require a search for social diversity and a re-evaluation of the methods of decision making for the allocation of school facilities based on socio-economic data and a level of facilities comparable to a national average. Its objectives are the result of combining social and spatial indicators in a square matrix by Saaty's AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method. It is in this complex urban context that geographic information systems (GIS) can be used as a decision support tool, with a dashboard that displays in real time the situation of the different districts of the city, by means of disparity indices.
在布萨达市,邻里之间的差距现象正达到令人担忧的程度。对差距的定量研究为我们提供了令人震惊的社会和空间方面的数字。我们的研究表明,居住隔离指数与学校成功率之间存在负相关关系,特别是在过度拥挤的周边社区中存在强烈的居住隔离,而学校设施水平较低。布萨市社区间差异的研究?数据表明,隔离指数为0.780,隔都在Poulssen量表上的评分为6。另一个结果是,在Maitar和Sidi Slimane?社区,学校设施水平的区域能力指数在0.41和1.02之间变化。0到5分。这些数字使地方当局感到震惊,需要寻求社会多样性,并根据社会经济数据和与全国平均水平相当的设施水平重新评价分配学校设施的决策方法。其目标是通过Saaty的AHP(层次分析法)方法在方阵中结合社会和空间指标的结果。正是在这种复杂的城市环境中,地理信息系统(GIS)可以作为一种决策支持工具,通过差异指数,通过仪表板实时显示城市不同地区的情况。
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引用次数: 0
Gerhard Mercator's maps as a source of geographical knowledge about Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and surrounding countries in the 16th century 格哈德·墨卡托的地图是16世纪塞尔维亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那及其周边国家地理知识的来源
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/gsgd2202001g
Mirko Grčić
The author considers the issue of the conceptualization of the geographical space that is known today as the Western Balkans on Gerhard Mercator's maps from the second half of the 16th century, from which, even in cases of incorrect cartographic representations, it is possible to conclude about the changes of certain geographical objects and phenomena in the past time. Two Mercator maps were analysed: Sclavonia, Croatia, Bosnia cum Dalmatiae parte, and Walachia, Servia, Bvlgaria, Romania, both from 1589. The characteristics, symbols and context of Mercator's cartographic representations of relief, hydrography, settlements and other geographical phenomena are discussed. Special attention was paid to the cartographic registration of river courses and settlements. The distortion of surfaces and wrong representations in the positioning of some geographical objects were pointed out, which should be taken into account when identifying individual toponyms on Mercator's maps. The author tries to reconstruct the meaning of toponyms and determine the deviations of the cartographic perception from the actual distribution of the elements of the geographical space, as well as the causes that caused these deviations. The author also gives an overview of toponyms in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and surrounding countries and identifies their modern meaning. The study of Mercator's maps is of interest today for researchers of the historical geography of the network of settlements and toponymy of the Balkan countries in the 15th and 16th century.
作者考虑了格哈德·墨卡托16世纪下半叶的地图上今天被称为西巴尔干的地理空间的概念化问题,即使在不正确的制图表示情况下,也可以从中得出过去某些地理对象和现象的变化的结论。研究人员分析了两幅墨卡托地图:克罗地亚的斯克拉沃尼亚、波斯尼亚和达尔马提亚地区,以及塞尔维亚的瓦拉几亚、保加利亚和罗马尼亚,这两幅地图都是1589年绘制的。讨论了墨卡托对地形、水文、聚落和其他地理现象的制图表现的特点、符号和背景。特别注意河道和定居点的制图登记。指出了一些地理物体在定位时表面的扭曲和错误的表述,在确定墨卡托地图上的个别地名时应加以考虑。笔者试图重构地名的意义,并从地理空间要素的实际分布中确定地图感知的偏差,以及产生这些偏差的原因。作者还概述了波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、塞尔维亚及其周边国家的地名,并确定了它们的现代意义。如今,研究15、16世纪巴尔干国家的聚落网络和地名的历史地理学研究者对墨卡托地图的研究很感兴趣。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of the residential satisfaction via a factorial analysis of the residentia environment (social housing). The case of the city of Boussaâda, Algeria 通过居住环境(社会住房)的析因分析来评价居住满意度。阿尔及利亚boussa<e:1>达市的案例
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/gsgd2201187h
Mohammed Hadji, Belkacem Dib
The improvement of the quality of life within the residential environment is the ultimate objective of sustainable development, in which its environmental, economic and social dimensions are constantly identified and updated. To this end, the development of a reference framework for the actors of the housing sector can formulate new policy trends related to the planning and design of the residential environment. Post-occupancy evaluation is an appropriate method for assessing and evaluating the impact of housing policies on residents' behaviour. Then, the results of these policies are tested by measuring residential satisfaction and by determining the factors that affect it. To achieve this objective, the technique of a head-of-household interview form was used. We relied on eighteen well-known potential variables in studies related to housing satisfaction, focusing on the social dimension. A sample consisting of two social housing clusters in the city of Boussa?da, comprising 121 households was randomly selected. Finally, the data were statistically processed using a factor analysis which is the principal components method, through which four factors containing fourteen variables that control residential satisfaction were extracted.
改善居住环境内的生活质量是可持续发展的最终目标,其中不断确定和更新其环境、经济和社会层面。为此目的,为住房部门的行动者制定一个参考框架,可以制定与住宅环境规划和设计有关的新政策趋势。入住后评价是评估和评价住房政策对居民行为影响的一种合适的方法。然后,通过测量居民满意度和确定影响它的因素来测试这些政策的结果。为了实现这一目标,采用了户主访谈形式的技术。我们在与住房满意度相关的研究中依赖于18个众所周知的潜在变量,重点关注社会维度。一个由布萨市两个社会住房集群组成的样本?Da,随机抽取121户。最后,采用主成分分析法对数据进行统计处理,提取出控制居住满意度的四个因子,共包含14个变量。
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引用次数: 0
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Glasnik - Srpskog Geografskog Drustva
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