Pub Date : 2007-07-01DOI: 10.1109/PCT.2007.4538422
C. Teoh, G. Sheblé
The deregulation policy introduces uncertainties into the power market. The power market uncertainties have increased the significance of two factors in decision analysis: financial risks and managerial flexibility. Real option analysis enables such flexibility to management. There are several major methods under real option analysis: traditional black-Scholes option-pricing method, lattice (binomial and trinomial) methods, Monte Carlo simulation method, and finite element (explicit, implicit, and Crank-Nicolson) method. This paper concentrates on the lattice method. Lattice model is easy to implement, appreciate and understand. However, when the investment duration is large (or the length of model period - step size is small), the lattice model becomes a massive bush of lattice, which is known as the curse of dimensionality. This paper proposes a new efficient methodology of solving the curse of dimensionality for the lattice model. The massive bush of lattice model can be reduced by analyzing the boundary of the lattice where the decision changes. This can be achieved via the implementation of value at risk into the lattice model. Besides reducing the degree of dimensionality, this new methodology also specifies "when" a decision changes. This is a very critical part in strategic budgeting planning. Timing and simplification yet maintaining high accuracy in analysis are essential in the new deregulated power economic uncertainties.
{"title":"Lattice Method of Real Option Analysis - Solving the Curse of Dimensionality and Strategic Planning","authors":"C. Teoh, G. Sheblé","doi":"10.1109/PCT.2007.4538422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PCT.2007.4538422","url":null,"abstract":"The deregulation policy introduces uncertainties into the power market. The power market uncertainties have increased the significance of two factors in decision analysis: financial risks and managerial flexibility. Real option analysis enables such flexibility to management. There are several major methods under real option analysis: traditional black-Scholes option-pricing method, lattice (binomial and trinomial) methods, Monte Carlo simulation method, and finite element (explicit, implicit, and Crank-Nicolson) method. This paper concentrates on the lattice method. Lattice model is easy to implement, appreciate and understand. However, when the investment duration is large (or the length of model period - step size is small), the lattice model becomes a massive bush of lattice, which is known as the curse of dimensionality. This paper proposes a new efficient methodology of solving the curse of dimensionality for the lattice model. The massive bush of lattice model can be reduced by analyzing the boundary of the lattice where the decision changes. This can be achieved via the implementation of value at risk into the lattice model. Besides reducing the degree of dimensionality, this new methodology also specifies \"when\" a decision changes. This is a very critical part in strategic budgeting planning. Timing and simplification yet maintaining high accuracy in analysis are essential in the new deregulated power economic uncertainties.","PeriodicalId":356805,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123675544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-07-01DOI: 10.1109/PCT.2007.4538599
R. Leborgne, R. Makaliki
This paper describes a case study to find the location of the voltage sag source at a petroleum industrial facility where sags are causing undesired trips on critical loads. The network that supplies this industrial facility is operated by basically two transmission and distribution utilities. Therefore, finding the location of the disturbance source is a first step in mitigation and decisive in allocating responsibilities.
{"title":"Voltage sag source location at grid interconnections: a case study in the Zambian system","authors":"R. Leborgne, R. Makaliki","doi":"10.1109/PCT.2007.4538599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PCT.2007.4538599","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes a case study to find the location of the voltage sag source at a petroleum industrial facility where sags are causing undesired trips on critical loads. The network that supplies this industrial facility is operated by basically two transmission and distribution utilities. Therefore, finding the location of the disturbance source is a first step in mitigation and decisive in allocating responsibilities.","PeriodicalId":356805,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124143229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-07-01DOI: 10.1109/PCT.2007.4538300
M. P. Coutinho, G. Lambert-Torres, Luiz Eduardo Borges da Silva, J. G. B. Silva, José Cabral, Edson Da Costa Bortoni, H. Lazarek
This paper presented a technique to extract rules in order to identify attacks and faults to improve security of electric power control systems. By using rough sets classification algorithm, a set of rules can be defined. The approach tries to reduce the number of input variables and the number of examples, offering a more compact set of examples to fix the rules to the anomaly detector. An illustrative example is presented.
{"title":"Attack and Fault Identification in Electric Power Control Systems: An Approach to Improve the Security","authors":"M. P. Coutinho, G. Lambert-Torres, Luiz Eduardo Borges da Silva, J. G. B. Silva, José Cabral, Edson Da Costa Bortoni, H. Lazarek","doi":"10.1109/PCT.2007.4538300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PCT.2007.4538300","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presented a technique to extract rules in order to identify attacks and faults to improve security of electric power control systems. By using rough sets classification algorithm, a set of rules can be defined. The approach tries to reduce the number of input variables and the number of examples, offering a more compact set of examples to fix the rules to the anomaly detector. An illustrative example is presented.","PeriodicalId":356805,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech","volume":"356 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121631061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-07-01DOI: 10.1109/PCT.2007.4538366
P. Pinson, Bernd Nielsen George Klockl, Henrik Aalborg
Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits to generate statistical scenarios of wind generation that accounts for the interdependence structure of prediction errors, in plus of respecting predictive distributions of wind generation. The approach is evaluated on the test case of a multi-MW wind farm over a period of more than two years. Its interest for a large range of applications is discussed.
{"title":"Generation of Statistical Scenarios of Short-term Wind Power Production","authors":"P. Pinson, Bernd Nielsen George Klockl, Henrik Aalborg","doi":"10.1109/PCT.2007.4538366","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PCT.2007.4538366","url":null,"abstract":"Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits to generate statistical scenarios of wind generation that accounts for the interdependence structure of prediction errors, in plus of respecting predictive distributions of wind generation. The approach is evaluated on the test case of a multi-MW wind farm over a period of more than two years. Its interest for a large range of applications is discussed.","PeriodicalId":356805,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech","volume":"114 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123482971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-07-01DOI: 10.1109/PCT.2007.4538569
D. Westermann, H. Sauvain
This paper outlines practical experiences from the application of a wide area monitoring and control system in a real network environment. After outline a general architecture for system control, results of first prototype application for optimal power flow and damping control will be presented. The last part of the paper focuses on the impact of data quality within the communication system.
{"title":"Experiences with Wide Area Coordinated Control of Facts Devices and HVDC in a Real Time Environment","authors":"D. Westermann, H. Sauvain","doi":"10.1109/PCT.2007.4538569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PCT.2007.4538569","url":null,"abstract":"This paper outlines practical experiences from the application of a wide area monitoring and control system in a real network environment. After outline a general architecture for system control, results of first prototype application for optimal power flow and damping control will be presented. The last part of the paper focuses on the impact of data quality within the communication system.","PeriodicalId":356805,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122251617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-07-01DOI: 10.1109/PCT.2007.4538424
E.V. Beck, R. Cherkaoui, A. Minoia, D. Ernst
We introduce in this paper a new approach for efficiently identifying Nash equilibria for games composed of large numbers of players having discrete and not too large strategy spaces. The approach is based on a characterization of Nash equilibria in terms of minima of a function and relies on stochastic optimization algorithms to find these minima. The approach is applied to compute Nash equilibria of some electricity markets and, based on the simulation results, its performances are discussed.
{"title":"Nash equilibrium as the minimum of a function. Application to electricity markets with large number of actors","authors":"E.V. Beck, R. Cherkaoui, A. Minoia, D. Ernst","doi":"10.1109/PCT.2007.4538424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PCT.2007.4538424","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce in this paper a new approach for efficiently identifying Nash equilibria for games composed of large numbers of players having discrete and not too large strategy spaces. The approach is based on a characterization of Nash equilibria in terms of minima of a function and relies on stochastic optimization algorithms to find these minima. The approach is applied to compute Nash equilibria of some electricity markets and, based on the simulation results, its performances are discussed.","PeriodicalId":356805,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122597783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-07-01DOI: 10.1109/PCT.2007.4538417
B.C. Paucar, J. Ortiz, J. Pinto, P. I. Koltermann
This work presents the study of the influence of the electrostatic and magnetostatic fields from a power transmission line over a gas pipeline distribution system, for a non-parallel configuration. This approach is based on the nodal model analysis for power line, quantifying the capacitive and self and mutual impedance effects, due to the geometrical configuration of both systems, as they depend on the power line voltage and on the current in conductors, respectively. The non-parallelism is treated by piecewise approximation, discretizing these effects in a longitudinal and transversal way. An application was realized for a non-grounded gas pipeline configuration and with a mitigation wires protection system over the gas pipeline.
{"title":"Induced Voltage on Gas Pipeline With Angle Between a Transmission Line","authors":"B.C. Paucar, J. Ortiz, J. Pinto, P. I. Koltermann","doi":"10.1109/PCT.2007.4538417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PCT.2007.4538417","url":null,"abstract":"This work presents the study of the influence of the electrostatic and magnetostatic fields from a power transmission line over a gas pipeline distribution system, for a non-parallel configuration. This approach is based on the nodal model analysis for power line, quantifying the capacitive and self and mutual impedance effects, due to the geometrical configuration of both systems, as they depend on the power line voltage and on the current in conductors, respectively. The non-parallelism is treated by piecewise approximation, discretizing these effects in a longitudinal and transversal way. An application was realized for a non-grounded gas pipeline configuration and with a mitigation wires protection system over the gas pipeline.","PeriodicalId":356805,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128394635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-07-01DOI: 10.1109/PCT.2007.4538665
L. Pinto, M. Fernández, L. Macedo, J. Szczupak
This paper proposes an integrated solution to the optimum portfolio building considering price and demand uncertainties. More than simply assessing risks, the proposed approach opens the possibility of a real and effective risk management, including maximum risk levels as optimization constraints. The resulting model corresponds to a stochastic non-linear integer programming problem and is solved by a customized algorithm, designed for efficiency and reliability. Possible extensions (targeting special markets customization) are straightforward and may be easily taken into account.
{"title":"Building the Optimal Contract Portfolio under Non-Probabilistic Uncertainties","authors":"L. Pinto, M. Fernández, L. Macedo, J. Szczupak","doi":"10.1109/PCT.2007.4538665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PCT.2007.4538665","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes an integrated solution to the optimum portfolio building considering price and demand uncertainties. More than simply assessing risks, the proposed approach opens the possibility of a real and effective risk management, including maximum risk levels as optimization constraints. The resulting model corresponds to a stochastic non-linear integer programming problem and is solved by a customized algorithm, designed for efficiency and reliability. Possible extensions (targeting special markets customization) are straightforward and may be easily taken into account.","PeriodicalId":356805,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130715627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-07-01DOI: 10.1109/PCT.2007.4538534
D. Midence, S. Rivera, A. Vargas
This paper evaluates the influence of supply quality controls of a performance-based regulation over the prioritization of short-term investment decisions in distribution networks. Since the uncertainty in planning parameters is considered by means of fuzzy numbers, the fuzzy performance and fuzzy financial analysis are conducted. Then, the respective prioritization process is accomplished by means of a method for ranking fuzzy numbers. The results show that the prioritization process is highly dependent on the supply quality control that the regulations applied. Moreover, depending on the level of the supply quality penalization, the distribution utilities may or may not be encouraged to invest in the maintenance or improvement of the supply quality. What is more, the regulations may not support the distribution utilities to make better investment decisions. The aforementioned is illustrated through the respective examples, numerical results, and conclusions.
{"title":"Supply Quality Regulation - Its Influence over Short-Term Investment Decisions in Distribution Networks","authors":"D. Midence, S. Rivera, A. Vargas","doi":"10.1109/PCT.2007.4538534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PCT.2007.4538534","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates the influence of supply quality controls of a performance-based regulation over the prioritization of short-term investment decisions in distribution networks. Since the uncertainty in planning parameters is considered by means of fuzzy numbers, the fuzzy performance and fuzzy financial analysis are conducted. Then, the respective prioritization process is accomplished by means of a method for ranking fuzzy numbers. The results show that the prioritization process is highly dependent on the supply quality control that the regulations applied. Moreover, depending on the level of the supply quality penalization, the distribution utilities may or may not be encouraged to invest in the maintenance or improvement of the supply quality. What is more, the regulations may not support the distribution utilities to make better investment decisions. The aforementioned is illustrated through the respective examples, numerical results, and conclusions.","PeriodicalId":356805,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130301595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-07-01DOI: 10.1109/PCT.2007.4538535
F. Bătrînu, G. Chicco, A. Ciortea, R. Porumb, P. Postolache, F. Spertino, C. Toader
The characterization of three-phase systems with neutral under unbalanced operation in the presence of waveform distortion is a key aspect in the power quality studies. This paper presents the application to a number of real cases of a unified framework providing a set of synthetic indicators capable to explain the individual effects of unbalance and harmonic distortion. The use of specific indicators extending the notion of total harmonic distortion to the case of unbalanced systems, and the notion of unbalance to the systems with distorted waveforms is illustrated and discussed on various sets of data gathered from real-time measurements on office and laboratory feeders and on a photovoltaic system.
{"title":"Experimental Evaluation of Unbalance and Distortion Indicators in Three-Phase Systems with Neutral","authors":"F. Bătrînu, G. Chicco, A. Ciortea, R. Porumb, P. Postolache, F. Spertino, C. Toader","doi":"10.1109/PCT.2007.4538535","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PCT.2007.4538535","url":null,"abstract":"The characterization of three-phase systems with neutral under unbalanced operation in the presence of waveform distortion is a key aspect in the power quality studies. This paper presents the application to a number of real cases of a unified framework providing a set of synthetic indicators capable to explain the individual effects of unbalance and harmonic distortion. The use of specific indicators extending the notion of total harmonic distortion to the case of unbalanced systems, and the notion of unbalance to the systems with distorted waveforms is illustrated and discussed on various sets of data gathered from real-time measurements on office and laboratory feeders and on a photovoltaic system.","PeriodicalId":356805,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131072248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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