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Price Impact Without Averaging 无平均值的价格影响
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-01-25 DOI: 10.1080/1350486x.2024.2303078
Claudio Bellani, D. Brigo, Mikko S. Pakkanen, Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt
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引用次数: 0
Arbitrage-Free Neural-SDE Market Models 无套利神经- sde市场模型
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1350486x.2023.2257217
Samuel N. Cohen, Christoph Reisinger, Sheng Wang
Modelling joint dynamics of liquid vanilla options is crucial for arbitrage-free pricing of illiquid derivatives and managing risks of option trade books. This paper develops a nonparametric model for the European options book respecting underlying financial constraints and while being practically implementable. We derive a state space for prices which are free from static (or model-independent) arbitrage and study the inference problem where a model is learnt from discrete time series data of stock and option prices. We use neural networks as function approximators for the drift and diffusion of the modelled SDE system, and impose constraints on the neural nets such that no-arbitrage conditions are preserved. In particular, we give methods to calibrate neural SDE models which are guaranteed to satisfy a set of linear inequalities. We validate our approach with numerical experiments using data generated from a Heston stochastic local volatility model.
对于非流动性衍生品的无套利定价和期权交易账簿的风险管理,建立液态香草期权的联合动力学模型至关重要。本文建立了一个考虑潜在财务约束的欧洲期权非参数模型,同时具有可操作性。我们导出了不存在静态(或模型无关)套利的价格的状态空间,并研究了从股票和期权价格的离散时间序列数据中学习模型的推理问题。我们使用神经网络作为模拟SDE系统漂移和扩散的函数逼近器,并对神经网络施加约束,使无套利条件得以保留。特别地,我们给出了保证满足一组线性不等式的神经SDE模型的校准方法。我们用赫斯顿随机局部波动模型生成的数据通过数值实验验证了我们的方法。
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引用次数: 17
On the Skew and Curvature of the Implied and Local Volatilities 论隐含波动率和局部波动率的偏度和曲率
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1350486x.2023.2261459
Elisa Alòs, David García-Lorite, Makar Pravosud
ABSTRACTIn this paper, we study the relationship between the short-end of the local and the implied volatility surfaces. Our results, based on Malliavin calculus techniques, recover the recent 1H+3/2 rule (where H denotes the Hurst parameter of the volatility process) for rough volatilities (see F. Bourgey, S. De Marco, P. Friz, and P. Pigato. 2022. “Local Volatility under Rough Volatility.” arXiv:2204.02376v1 [q-fin.MF] https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2204.02376.), that states that the short-time skew slope of the at-the-money implied volatility is 1H+3/2 of the corresponding slope for local volatilities. Moreover, we see that the at-the-money short-end curvature of the implied volatility can be written in terms of the short-end skew and curvature of the local volatility and vice versa. Additionally, this relationship depends on H.KEYWORDS: Stochastic volatilitylocal volatilityrough volatilityMalliavin calculus Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 For example we can suppose a local volatility flat between 0 to first Monte Carlo, or even to use a discretization of the following asymptotic expression limT→0I0(T,K)=log⁡(KST)∫STk1σ(T,u)du 2 Another way to get the skew is to take the derivative with respect to K in E((ST−K)+)=BS(T,K,I(T,K)). Then we get the following expression for the skew ∂kI(T,K)=−E(I(ST>K))−∂KBS(T,K,I(T,K)∂σBS(T,K,I(T,K)). Notice that the term E(I(ST>K)) can be estimated in the same simulation where we get the price of the option. We have checked both approaches and we have confirmed that they lead to identical resultsAdditional informationFundingThis work was supported by Agencia Estatal de Investigación [grant number PID2020-118339GB-I00].
摘要本文研究了局部波动面短端与隐含波动面之间的关系。我们的结果基于Malliavin微积分技术,恢复了粗波动率的最近1H+3/2规则(其中H表示波动过程的Hurst参数)(见F. Bourgey, S. De Marco, P. Friz和P. Pigato. 2022)。“粗糙波动下的局部波动。[j] .浙江大学学报(自然科学版);MF] https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2204.02376.),即货币隐含波动率的短期倾斜斜率为局部波动率相应斜率的1H+3/2。此外,我们看到隐含波动率的现价短端曲率可以用本地波动率的短端偏度和曲率表示,反之亦然。关键词:随机波动率局部波动率粗糙波动率malliavin演算披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1例如,我们可以假设在0到第一个蒙特卡罗之间有一个局部波动率,或者甚至可以使用以下渐近表达式的离散化:limT→0I0(T,K)=log (KST)∫STk1σ(T,u)du 2。另一种得到偏态的方法是在E((ST−K)+)=BS(T,K,I(T,K))中对K求导。那么我们就得到了∂kI(T,K)=−E(I(ST>K))−∂KBS(T,K,I(T,K))∂σBS(T,K,I(T,K))的表达式。注意项E(I(ST>K))可以在我们得到期权价格的相同模拟中估计。我们已经检查了这两种方法,并确认它们会导致相同的结果。额外信息资金本工作得到了阿根廷国家开发署Investigación的支持[资助号PID2020-118339GB-I00]。
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引用次数: 2
Policy Gradient Learning Methods for Stochastic Control with Exit Time and Applications to Share Repurchase Pricing 具有退出时间的随机控制策略梯度学习方法及其在股票回购定价中的应用
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2023.2239850
Mohamed Hamdouche, P. Henry-Labordère, H. Pham
ABSTRACT We develop policy gradients methods for stochastic control with exit time in a model-free setting. We propose two types of algorithms for learning either directly the optimal policy or by learning alternately the value function (critic) and the optimal control (actor). The use of randomized policies is crucial for overcoming notably the issue related to the exit time in the gradient computation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by implementing our numerical schemes in the application to the problem of share repurchase pricing. Our results show that the proposed policy gradient methods outperform PDE or other neural networks techniques in a model-based setting. Furthermore, our algorithms are flexible enough to incorporate realistic market conditions like, e.g., price impact or transaction costs.
摘要:研究无模型条件下具有退出时间的随机控制的策略梯度方法。我们提出了两种算法,要么直接学习最优策略,要么交替学习价值函数(批评家)和最优控制(行动者)。随机策略的使用对于克服与梯度计算中的退出时间相关的问题至关重要。我们通过在股票回购定价问题的应用中实现我们的数值方案来证明我们方法的有效性。我们的研究结果表明,在基于模型的设置中,提出的策略梯度方法优于PDE或其他神经网络技术。此外,我们的算法足够灵活,可以纳入现实的市场条件,例如价格影响或交易成本。
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引用次数: 1
Multi-Period Mean Expected-Shortfall Strategies: ‘Cut Your Losses and Ride Your Gains’ 多期平均预期缺口策略:“止损乘利”
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-09-03 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2023.2224354
P. Forsyth, K. Vetzal
Dynamic mean-variance (MV) optimal strategies are inherently contrarian. Following periods of strong equity returns, there is a tendency to de-risk the portfolio by shifting into risk-free investments. On the other hand, if the portfolio still has some equity exposure, the weight on equities will increase following stretches of poor equity returns. This is essentially due to using variance as a risk measure, which penalizes both upside and downside deviations relative to a satiation point. As an alternative, we propose a dynamic trading strategy based on an expected wealth (EW), expected shortfall (ES) objective function. ES is defined as the mean of the worst β fraction of the outcomes, hence the EW-ES objective directly targets left tail risk. We use stochastic control methods to determine the optimal trading strategy. Our numerical method allows us to impose realistic constraints: no leverage, no shorting, infrequent rebalancing. For 5 year investment horizons, this strategy generates an annualized alpha of 180 bps compared to a 60:40 stock-bond constant weight policy. Bootstrap resampling with historical data shows that these results are robust to parametric model misspecification. The optimal EW-ES strategy is generally a momentum-type policy, in contrast to the contrarian MV optimal strategy.
动态均值-方差(MV)最优策略本质上是逆向的。在股票回报强劲的时期之后,人们倾向于通过转向无风险投资来降低投资组合的风险。另一方面,如果投资组合中仍有一些股票敞口,那么在股票回报持续低迷之后,股票的权重将会增加。这主要是由于使用方差作为风险度量,它惩罚相对于饱和点的上行和下行偏差。作为替代方案,我们提出了一种基于预期财富(EW)、预期短缺(ES)目标函数的动态交易策略。ES被定义为结果中最差β分数的平均值,因此EW-ES目标直接针对左尾部风险。我们使用随机控制方法来确定最优交易策略。我们的数值方法允许我们施加现实的约束:不使用杠杆,不做空,不频繁的再平衡。对于5年的投资期限,这一策略产生的年化阿尔法值为180个基点,而股票-债券固定权重政策为60:40。用历史数据进行自举重采样表明,这些结果对参数模型错配具有鲁棒性。最优的EW-ES策略通常是动量型策略,与反向的MV最优策略相反。
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引用次数: 2
Accelerated Share Repurchases Under Stochastic Volatility 随机波动下的加速股票回购
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-09-03 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2023.2210290
N. Krishnan, R. Sircar
Accelerated share repurchases (ASRs) are a type of stock buyback wherein the repurchasing firm contracts a financial intermediary to acquire the shares on its behalf. The intermediary purchases the shares from the open market and is compensated by the firm according to the average of the stock price over the repurchasing interval, whose end can be chosen by the intermediary. Hence, the intermediary needs to decide both how to minimize the cost of acquiring the shares, and when to exercise its contract to maximize its payment. Studies of ASRs typically assume a constant volatility, but the longer time horizon of ASRs, on the order of months, indicates that the variation of the volatility should be considered. We analyze the optimal strategy of the intermediary within the continuous-time framework of the Heston model for the evolution of the stock price and volatility, which is described by a free-boundary problem which we derive here. To solve this system numerically, we make use of deep learning. Through simulations, we find that the intermediary can acquire shares at lower cost and lower risk if it takes into account the stochasticity of the volatility.
加速股票回购(ASRs)是一种股票回购,其中回购公司与金融中介机构签订合同,代表其收购股票。中间商从公开市场购买股票,公司根据回购间隔内股票价格的平均值对中间商进行补偿,回购间隔的结束时间由中间商选择。因此,中介需要决定如何使获得股份的成本最小化,以及何时行使其合同以使其支付最大化。对asr的研究通常假设一个恒定的波动率,但asr的时间跨度较长,以月为单位,这表明应该考虑波动率的变化。我们在连续时间的赫斯顿模型框架内分析了中介机构的最优策略,以股票价格和波动率的演变,这是由我们导出的一个自由边界问题来描述的。为了对这个系统进行数值求解,我们使用了深度学习。通过模拟,我们发现如果考虑波动性的随机性,中介可以以较低的成本和较低的风险获得股票。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Execution with Identity Optionality 具有身份可选性的最优执行
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2023.2193343
R. Carmona, Claire Zeng
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the impact of anonymous trading on the agents' strategy in an optimal execution framework. It mainly explores the specificity of order attribution on the Toronto Stock Exchange, where brokers can choose to either trade with their own identity or under a generic anonymous code that is common to all the brokers. We formulate a stochastic differential game for the optimal execution problem of a population of N brokers and incorporate permanent and temporary price impacts for both the identity-revealed and anonymous trading processes. We then formulate the limiting mean-field game of controls with common noise and obtain a solution in closed-form via the probablistic approach for the Almgren-Chris price impact framework. Finally, we perform a sensitivity analysis to explore the impact of the model parameters on the optimal strategy.
摘要本文研究了在最优执行框架下匿名交易对代理人策略的影响。主要探讨了多伦多证券交易所订单归属的特殊性,经纪人可以选择以自己的身份进行交易,也可以选择使用所有经纪人共同使用的通用匿名代码进行交易。我们为N个经纪人群体的最优执行问题制定了一个随机微分博弈,并结合了身份披露和匿名交易过程的永久和临时价格影响。然后,我们在Almgren-Chris价格影响框架下,通过概率方法给出了具有共同噪声的控制器的极限平均场对策,并得到了封闭形式的解。最后,我们进行了敏感性分析,以探讨模型参数对最优策略的影响。
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引用次数: 1
Exchange Option Pricing Under Variance Gamma-Like Models 方差类gamma模型下的期权定价
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2023.2248791
M. Gardini, P. Sabino
In this article, we focus on the pricing of exchange options when the risk-neutral dynamic of log-prices follows either the well-known variance gamma or the recent variance gamma++ process introduced in Gardini et al. (2022. “The Variance Gamma++ Process and Applications to Energy Markets.” Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry 38 (2): 391–418. https://doi.org/10.1002/asmb.v38.2.). In particular, for the former model we can derive a Margrabe's type formula whereas for the latter one we can write an ‘integral free’ formula. Furthermore, we show how to construct a general multidimensional versions of the variance gamma++ processes preserving both the mathematical and numerical tractabilities. Finally we apply the derived models to German and French energy power markets: we calibrate their parameters using real market data and we accordingly evaluate exchange options with the derived closed formulas, Fourier based methods and Monte Carlo techniques.
在本文中,我们关注的是当对数价格的风险中性动态遵循众所周知的方差伽玛或Gardini等人(2022)引入的最新方差伽玛++过程时,外汇期权的定价。“方差伽玛++过程及其在能源市场中的应用”随机模型在商业和工业中的应用,38(2):391-418。https://doi.org/10.1002/asmb.v38.2)。特别地,对于前一个模型,我们可以推导出一个马尔格拉贝式公式,而对于后一个模型,我们可以写出一个“无积分”公式。此外,我们展示了如何构建方差伽玛++过程的一般多维版本,同时保留了数学和数值的可追溯性。最后,我们将导出的模型应用于德国和法国的能源电力市场:我们使用实际市场数据校准其参数,并相应地使用导出的封闭公式,基于傅里叶的方法和蒙特卡罗技术评估交换期权。
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引用次数: 0
Hedging Option Books Using Neural-SDE Market Models 使用神经- sde市场模型对冲期权书
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2023.2221448
Samuel N. Cohen, C. Reisinger, Sheng Wang
We study the capability of arbitrage-free neural-SDE market models to yield effective strategies for hedging options. In particular, we derive sensitivity-based and minimum-variance-based hedging strategies using these models and examine their performance when applied to various option portfolios using real-world data. Through backtesting analysis over typical and stressed market periods, we show that neural-SDE market models achieve lower hedging errors than Black–Scholes delta and delta-vega hedging consistently over time, and are less sensitive to the tenor choice of hedging instruments. In addition, hedging using market models leads to similar performance to hedging using Heston models, while the former tends to be more robust during stressed market periods.
我们研究了无套利的神经- sde市场模型对对冲期权产生有效策略的能力。特别是,我们使用这些模型推导出基于敏感性和基于最小方差的对冲策略,并使用真实世界的数据检查它们在应用于各种期权投资组合时的表现。通过对典型和压力市场时期的回测分析,我们发现随着时间的推移,神经- sde市场模型的套期保值误差始终低于Black-Scholes delta和delta-vega套期保值,并且对套期保值工具的基调选择不那么敏感。此外,使用市场模型的套期保值与使用赫斯顿模型的套期保值表现相似,而前者在市场压力时期往往更为稳健。
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引用次数: 2
Optimal Execution: A Review 最佳执行:回顾
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2022.2161588
R. Donnelly
This review article is intended to collect and summarize many of the results in the field of optimal execution over the last twenty years. In doing so, we describe the general workings of the limit order book so that the sources of costs and risks which need to be optimized are understood. The initial models considered propose simple dynamics for prices which allow easily computable strategies which maximize risk-adjusted profits. Subsequently, the review is divided into two major parts. The first explores several works which investigate how optimal liquidation strategies are modified to account for more complex dynamics, namely other stochastic or non-linear factors. The second presents optimal trading strategies when the agent utilizes benchmarks in addition to risk-adjusted wealth, or when she has objectives beyond optimal liquidation.
这篇综述文章旨在收集和总结过去二十年来在优化执行领域的许多结果。在此过程中,我们描述了限价订单簿的一般工作原理,以便了解需要优化的成本和风险来源。考虑的初始模型提出了简单的价格动态,这使得易于计算的策略能够最大化风险调整后的利润。随后,审查分为两个主要部分。第一篇探讨了几项研究如何修改最优清算策略以考虑更复杂的动态,即其他随机或非线性因素的工作。第二种是当代理人除了风险调整后的财富之外还使用基准时,或者当她的目标超越最优清算时,提出最优交易策略。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Applied Mathematical Finance
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