首页 > 最新文献

Applied Mathematical Finance最新文献

英文 中文
Hedging Strategies in Commodity Markets – Rolling Intrinsic and Delta Hedging for Virtual Power Plants 商品市场中的套期保值策略——虚拟电厂的滚动内在和增量套期保值
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2021.1898998
Richard Biegler-König
ABSTRACT Hedging on commodity markets is usually done by applying either the rolling intrinsic strategy or the canonical delta hedge strategy. In this paper we introduce, compare and discuss both hedging strategies in the context of virtual power plants (VPP). We formulate the precise relationship of the two strategies mathematically. Our main result is that they are not only very similar regarding hedge construction but also that both strategies are equal in expectation. The proof involves some stochastic calculus and the Brownian local time. We illustrate our findings with simulated data as well as in prototypical market scenarios. These studies show that the rolling intrinsic hedge comes with a riskier profile than the delta hedge.
商品市场的套期保值通常采用滚动内在策略或典型增量套期保值策略。本文在虚拟电厂(VPP)的背景下,对这两种对冲策略进行了介绍、比较和讨论。我们用数学公式精确地表述了这两种策略之间的关系。我们的主要结果是,它们不仅在对冲构建方面非常相似,而且两种策略的预期也是相等的。这个证明涉及到一些随机微积分和布朗当地时间。我们用模拟数据和典型市场情景来说明我们的发现。这些研究表明,滚动内在套期保值比delta套期保值具有更大的风险。
{"title":"Hedging Strategies in Commodity Markets – Rolling Intrinsic and Delta Hedging for Virtual Power Plants","authors":"Richard Biegler-König","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2021.1898998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2021.1898998","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Hedging on commodity markets is usually done by applying either the rolling intrinsic strategy or the canonical delta hedge strategy. In this paper we introduce, compare and discuss both hedging strategies in the context of virtual power plants (VPP). We formulate the precise relationship of the two strategies mathematically. Our main result is that they are not only very similar regarding hedge construction but also that both strategies are equal in expectation. The proof involves some stochastic calculus and the Brownian local time. We illustrate our findings with simulated data as well as in prototypical market scenarios. These studies show that the rolling intrinsic hedge comes with a riskier profile than the delta hedge.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":"311 1","pages":"550 - 582"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79991146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spiking the Volatility Punch 加剧波动性冲击
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2021.1893196
P. Carr, Gianna Figá-Talamanca
ABSTRACT An alternative volatility index called SPIKES has been recently introduced. Like VIX, SPIKES aims to forecast S&P 500 volatility over a 30-day horizon and both indexes are based on the same theoretical formula; yet, they differ in several ways. While some differences are introduced in response to the controversy surrounding possible VIX manipulation, others are due to the choice of the S&P500 exchange-traded fund (ETF), named SPY, as a substitute for the S&P500 (SPX) Index itself. Indeed, options on the SPX, used for VIX computation, are European-style, whereas options on the SPY ETF, used for SPIKES computation, are American-style. Overall, the difference is mainly due to the early exercise premium of the component options and the dividend timing of the underlying SPY versus SPX and we assess the magnitude of these separate contributions under the benchmark Black, Merton and Scholes setting. By applying both the finite difference method and newly-derived approximation formulas we show that the new SPIKES index will track the VIX index as long as 30-day US interest rates and annualized dividend yields continue to be range-bound between 0 and 10% per year. Hence, after more that 20 years of supremacy, VIX may have found its first competitor.
最近引入了一种名为SPIKES的替代波动率指数。与VIX一样,SPIKES旨在预测标准普尔500指数在30天内的波动率,这两个指数都基于相同的理论公式;然而,它们在几个方面有所不同。虽然引入一些差异是为了应对围绕可能操纵波动率的争议,但其他差异是由于选择了名为SPY的标准普尔500交易所交易基金(ETF)作为标准普尔500指数(SPX)本身的替代品。实际上,用于VIX计算的SPX期权是欧式的,而用于SPIKES计算的SPY ETF期权是美式的。总体而言,差异主要是由于组件期权的早期行权溢价和基础SPY相对于SPX的股息时间,我们在基准Black, Merton和Scholes设置下评估这些单独贡献的大小。通过应用有限差分法和新导出的近似公式,我们表明,只要美国30天的利率和年化股息收益率继续在每年0到10%之间波动,新的SPIKES指数就会跟踪VIX指数。因此,在称霸20多年后,VIX指数可能找到了第一个竞争对手。
{"title":"Spiking the Volatility Punch","authors":"P. Carr, Gianna Figá-Talamanca","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2021.1893196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2021.1893196","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT An alternative volatility index called SPIKES has been recently introduced. Like VIX, SPIKES aims to forecast S&P 500 volatility over a 30-day horizon and both indexes are based on the same theoretical formula; yet, they differ in several ways. While some differences are introduced in response to the controversy surrounding possible VIX manipulation, others are due to the choice of the S&P500 exchange-traded fund (ETF), named SPY, as a substitute for the S&P500 (SPX) Index itself. Indeed, options on the SPX, used for VIX computation, are European-style, whereas options on the SPY ETF, used for SPIKES computation, are American-style. Overall, the difference is mainly due to the early exercise premium of the component options and the dividend timing of the underlying SPY versus SPX and we assess the magnitude of these separate contributions under the benchmark Black, Merton and Scholes setting. By applying both the finite difference method and newly-derived approximation formulas we show that the new SPIKES index will track the VIX index as long as 30-day US interest rates and annualized dividend yields continue to be range-bound between 0 and 10% per year. Hence, after more that 20 years of supremacy, VIX may have found its first competitor.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":"20 1","pages":"495 - 520"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87137431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
KrigHedge: Gaussian Process Surrogates for Delta Hedging krigedge: Delta套期保值的高斯过程替代品
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-10-16 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2022.2039250
M. Ludkovski, Y. Saporito
We investigate a machine learning approach to option Greeks approximation based on Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates. Our motivation is to implement Delta hedging in cases where direct computation is expensive, such as in local volatility models, or can only ever be done approximately. The proposed method takes in noisily observed option prices, fits a non-parametric input-output map and then analytically differentiates the latter to obtain the various price sensitivities. Thus, a single surrogate yields multiple self-consistent Greeks. We provide a detailed analysis of numerous aspects of GP surrogates, including choice of kernel family, simulation design, choice of trend function and impact of noise. We moreover connect the quality of the Delta approximation to the resulting discrete-time hedging loss. Results are illustrated with two extensive case studies that consider estimation of Delta, Theta and Gamma and benchmark approximation quality and uncertainty quantification using a variety of statistical metrics. Among our key take-aways are the recommendation to use Matérn kernels, the benefit of including virtual training points to capture boundary conditions, and the significant loss of fidelity when training on stock-path-based datasets.
我们研究了一种基于高斯过程(GP)代理的选项希腊近似的机器学习方法。我们的动机是在直接计算非常昂贵的情况下实现Delta套期保值,比如在局部波动模型中,或者只能近似地完成。该方法采用噪声观测的期权价格,拟合非参数输入-输出映射,然后对后者进行解析微分,得到不同的价格敏感性。因此,一个代理会产生多个自洽的希腊人。我们详细分析了GP代理的许多方面,包括核族的选择、仿真设计、趋势函数的选择和噪声的影响。此外,我们将Delta近似的质量与由此产生的离散时间套期损失联系起来。结果用两个广泛的案例研究来说明,这些案例研究考虑了Delta, Theta和Gamma的估计以及使用各种统计度量的基准近似质量和不确定性量化。我们的主要结论是建议使用mat核,包括虚拟训练点捕获边界条件的好处,以及在基于股票路径的数据集上训练时保真度的显著损失。
{"title":"KrigHedge: Gaussian Process Surrogates for Delta Hedging","authors":"M. Ludkovski, Y. Saporito","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2022.2039250","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2022.2039250","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate a machine learning approach to option Greeks approximation based on Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates. Our motivation is to implement Delta hedging in cases where direct computation is expensive, such as in local volatility models, or can only ever be done approximately. The proposed method takes in noisily observed option prices, fits a non-parametric input-output map and then analytically differentiates the latter to obtain the various price sensitivities. Thus, a single surrogate yields multiple self-consistent Greeks. We provide a detailed analysis of numerous aspects of GP surrogates, including choice of kernel family, simulation design, choice of trend function and impact of noise. We moreover connect the quality of the Delta approximation to the resulting discrete-time hedging loss. Results are illustrated with two extensive case studies that consider estimation of Delta, Theta and Gamma and benchmark approximation quality and uncertainty quantification using a variety of statistical metrics. Among our key take-aways are the recommendation to use Matérn kernels, the benefit of including virtual training points to capture boundary conditions, and the significant loss of fidelity when training on stock-path-based datasets.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":"97 1","pages":"330 - 360"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81413411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Smart Indexing Under Regime-Switching Economic States 制度转换经济状态下的智能指数
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2021.1891554
Chanaka Edirisinghe, Yonggan Zhao
ABSTRACT Index funds that track a benchmark, such as the market cap-weighted S&P 500 index, tend to have portfolio holdings biased towards slower-growth large-cap equities that result in the fund’s under-performance, especially in economic downturns. We develop a rigorous quantitative framework that allows dynamic-rebalancing of the allocations such that portfolio exposure in a market segment can change periodically based on economic activity, measured via a set of macro-economic and financial indicators. The method incorporates potential shifts in the economic state, and the likelihood thereof, to determine the fund’s risk orientation optimally in tracking or not tracking the benchmark index. That is, the greater the likelihood of a stronger economic state, the higher the degree of tracking the market index; however, a lack of confidence in the economic state results in a more index-neutral portfolio composition. The proposed smart indexing optimal strategy generates superior risk-adjusted returns consistently in out-of-sample testing, relative to (pure) index tracking. We test several variants and present sensitivity analyses that support our actively-managed smart indexing approach.
追踪基准(如市值加权标准普尔500指数)的指数基金,其投资组合往往偏向于增长较慢的大盘股,这导致基金表现不佳,尤其是在经济低迷时期。我们开发了一个严格的定量框架,允许动态重新平衡配置,使投资组合在细分市场中的敞口可以根据经济活动定期变化,通过一组宏观经济和金融指标来衡量。该方法结合了经济状况的潜在变化及其可能性,以确定基金在跟踪或不跟踪基准指数时的最佳风险取向。即,经济状态走强的可能性越大,对市场指数的跟踪程度越高;然而,对经济状况缺乏信心会导致投资组合中的指数更为中性。相对于(纯)指数跟踪,所提出的智能指数最优策略在样本外测试中始终产生卓越的风险调整回报。我们测试了几种变体,并提出了支持我们主动管理的智能索引方法的敏感性分析。
{"title":"Smart Indexing Under Regime-Switching Economic States","authors":"Chanaka Edirisinghe, Yonggan Zhao","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2021.1891554","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2021.1891554","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Index funds that track a benchmark, such as the market cap-weighted S&P 500 index, tend to have portfolio holdings biased towards slower-growth large-cap equities that result in the fund’s under-performance, especially in economic downturns. We develop a rigorous quantitative framework that allows dynamic-rebalancing of the allocations such that portfolio exposure in a market segment can change periodically based on economic activity, measured via a set of macro-economic and financial indicators. The method incorporates potential shifts in the economic state, and the likelihood thereof, to determine the fund’s risk orientation optimally in tracking or not tracking the benchmark index. That is, the greater the likelihood of a stronger economic state, the higher the degree of tracking the market index; however, a lack of confidence in the economic state results in a more index-neutral portfolio composition. The proposed smart indexing optimal strategy generates superior risk-adjusted returns consistently in out-of-sample testing, relative to (pure) index tracking. We test several variants and present sensitivity analyses that support our actively-managed smart indexing approach.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":"74 1","pages":"422 - 456"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80004454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
A Multiple Curve Lévy Swap Market Model 一个多曲线交换市场模型
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2021.1877559
E. Eberlein, Christoph Gerhart, E. Lütkebohmert
ABSTRACT In this paper, we develop an arbitrage-free multiple curve model through the specification of forward swap rates. Two sets of assets are chosen as fundamentals: OIS zero-coupon bonds and forward rate agreements. This is a very natural approach since, on the one hand, OIS bonds represent the class of risk-free discount bonds and, on the other hand, the mid and long maturity part of the interest rate term structure is bootstrapped from quotes of swap rates that can be represented by FRA rates and OIS bond prices in the multiple curve setting. We construct the rates via a backward induction along the tenor structure on the basis of the forward swap measures. Time-inhomogeneous Lévy processes are used as drivers of the dynamics. As an application, we derive an approximative Fourier-based valuation formula for swaptions. The model is implemented and calibrated by using generalized hyperbolic Lévy processes as drivers.
摘要本文通过对远期掉期利率的说明,建立了一个无套利的多曲线模型。选择两组资产作为基本面:OIS零息债券和远期利率协议。这是一种非常自然的方法,因为一方面,OIS债券代表了无风险贴现债券的类别,另一方面,利率期限结构的中长期部分是由互换利率报价引导的,互换利率报价可以由FRA利率和OIS债券价格在多曲线设置中表示。我们在远期互换措施的基础上,通过沿期结构的逆向归纳来构造利率。时间非同质的lsamvy过程被用作动力学的驱动。作为应用,我们导出了交换的近似傅立叶估值公式。采用广义双曲lsamvy过程作为驱动,对模型进行了实现和标定。
{"title":"A Multiple Curve Lévy Swap Market Model","authors":"E. Eberlein, Christoph Gerhart, E. Lütkebohmert","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2021.1877559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2021.1877559","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In this paper, we develop an arbitrage-free multiple curve model through the specification of forward swap rates. Two sets of assets are chosen as fundamentals: OIS zero-coupon bonds and forward rate agreements. This is a very natural approach since, on the one hand, OIS bonds represent the class of risk-free discount bonds and, on the other hand, the mid and long maturity part of the interest rate term structure is bootstrapped from quotes of swap rates that can be represented by FRA rates and OIS bond prices in the multiple curve setting. We construct the rates via a backward induction along the tenor structure on the basis of the forward swap measures. Time-inhomogeneous Lévy processes are used as drivers of the dynamics. As an application, we derive an approximative Fourier-based valuation formula for swaptions. The model is implemented and calibrated by using generalized hyperbolic Lévy processes as drivers.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":"20 1","pages":"396 - 421"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80460761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Detecting and Repairing Arbitrage in Traded Option Prices 期权交易价格套利的检测与修复
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-08-21 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2020.1846573
Samuel N. Cohen, C. Reisinger, Sheng Wang
ABSTRACT Option price data are used as inputs for model calibration, risk-neutral density estimation and many other financial applications. The presence of arbitrage in option price data can lead to poor performance or even failure of these tasks, making pre-processing of the data to eliminate arbitrage necessary. Most attention in the relevant literature has been devoted to arbitrage-free smoothing and filtering (i.e., removing) of data. In contrast to smoothing, which typically changes nearly all data, or filtering, which truncates data, we propose to repair data by only necessary and minimal changes. We formulate the data repair as a linear programming (LP) problem, where the no-arbitrage relations are constraints, and the objective is to minimize prices’ changes within their bid and ask price bounds. Through empirical studies, we show that the proposed arbitrage repair method gives sparse perturbations on data, and is fast when applied to real-world large-scale problems due to the LP formulation. In addition, we show that removing arbitrage from prices data by our repair method can improve model calibration with enhanced robustness and reduced calibration error.
期权价格数据被用作模型校准、风险中性密度估计和许多其他金融应用的输入。期权价格数据中套利的存在会导致这些任务的表现不佳甚至失败,因此需要对数据进行预处理以消除套利。在相关文献中,大多数注意力都集中在数据的无套利平滑和过滤(即去除)上。与平滑(通常会更改几乎所有数据)或过滤(会截断数据)相比,我们建议仅通过必要的最小更改来修复数据。我们将数据修复描述为一个线性规划(LP)问题,其中无套利关系是约束,目标是在买价和卖价范围内最小化价格变化。通过实证研究,我们发现所提出的套利修复方法对数据具有稀疏扰动,并且由于采用LP公式,在应用于现实世界的大规模问题时速度很快。此外,我们表明,通过我们的修复方法去除价格数据中的套利可以提高模型校准,增强鲁棒性并减少校准误差。
{"title":"Detecting and Repairing Arbitrage in Traded Option Prices","authors":"Samuel N. Cohen, C. Reisinger, Sheng Wang","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2020.1846573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2020.1846573","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Option price data are used as inputs for model calibration, risk-neutral density estimation and many other financial applications. The presence of arbitrage in option price data can lead to poor performance or even failure of these tasks, making pre-processing of the data to eliminate arbitrage necessary. Most attention in the relevant literature has been devoted to arbitrage-free smoothing and filtering (i.e., removing) of data. In contrast to smoothing, which typically changes nearly all data, or filtering, which truncates data, we propose to repair data by only necessary and minimal changes. We formulate the data repair as a linear programming (LP) problem, where the no-arbitrage relations are constraints, and the objective is to minimize prices’ changes within their bid and ask price bounds. Through empirical studies, we show that the proposed arbitrage repair method gives sparse perturbations on data, and is fast when applied to real-world large-scale problems due to the LP formulation. In addition, we show that removing arbitrage from prices data by our repair method can improve model calibration with enhanced robustness and reduced calibration error.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":"199 1","pages":"345 - 373"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81079854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Optimal Trading with Differing Trade Signals 不同交易信号下的最优交易
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-06-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3634629
Ryan Francis Donnelly, Matthew J. Lorig
ABSTRACT We consider the problem of maximizing portfolio value when an agent has a subjective view on asset value which differs from the traded market price. The agent’s trades will have a price impact which affects the price at which the asset is traded. In addition to the agent’s trades affecting the market price, the agent may change his view on the asset’s value if its difference from the market price persists. We also consider a situation of several agents interacting and trading simultaneously when they have a subjective view of the asset value. Two cases of the subjective views of agents are considered: one in which they all share the same information, and one in which they all have an individual signal correlated with price innovations. To study the large agent problem we take a mean-field game approach which remains tractable. After classifying the mean-field equilibrium we compute the cross-sectional distribution of agents’ inventories and the dependence of price distribution on the amount of shared information among the agents.
摘要考虑了当代理人对资产价值的主观看法不同于市场交易价格时,投资组合价值最大化问题。代理人的交易将对价格产生影响,从而影响资产的交易价格。除了代理人的交易影响市场价格外,如果资产与市场价格的差异持续存在,代理人可能会改变他对资产价值的看法。我们还考虑了当几个代理人对资产价值有主观看法时,他们同时互动和交易的情况。考虑了代理人主观观点的两种情况:一种情况下,他们都共享相同的信息,另一种情况下,他们都有与价格创新相关的个人信号。为了研究大型智能体问题,我们采用了一种易于处理的平均域博弈方法。在对平均场均衡进行分类后,我们计算了代理库存的横截面分布以及价格分布对代理之间共享信息量的依赖关系。
{"title":"Optimal Trading with Differing Trade Signals","authors":"Ryan Francis Donnelly, Matthew J. Lorig","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3634629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3634629","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We consider the problem of maximizing portfolio value when an agent has a subjective view on asset value which differs from the traded market price. The agent’s trades will have a price impact which affects the price at which the asset is traded. In addition to the agent’s trades affecting the market price, the agent may change his view on the asset’s value if its difference from the market price persists. We also consider a situation of several agents interacting and trading simultaneously when they have a subjective view of the asset value. Two cases of the subjective views of agents are considered: one in which they all share the same information, and one in which they all have an individual signal correlated with price innovations. To study the large agent problem we take a mean-field game approach which remains tractable. After classifying the mean-field equilibrium we compute the cross-sectional distribution of agents’ inventories and the dependence of price distribution on the amount of shared information among the agents.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":"15 1","pages":"317 - 344"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88253301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Optimal Hedging in Incomplete Markets 不完全市场中的最优对冲
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-06-23 DOI: 10.1080/1350486x.2020.1819831
G. Bouzianis, L. Hughston
ABSTRACT We consider the problem of optimal hedging in an incomplete market with an established pricing kernel. In such a market, prices are uniquely determined, but perfect hedges are usually not available. We work in the rather general setting of a Lévy-Ito market, where assets are driven jointly by an n-dimensional Brownian motion and an independent Poisson random measure on an n-dimensional state space. Given a position in need of hedging and the instruments available as hedges, we demonstrate the existence of an optimal hedge portfolio, where optimality is defined by use of a least expected squared error criterion over a specified time frame, and where the numeraire with respect to which the hedge is optimized is taken to be the benchmark process associated with the designated pricing kernel.
研究具有既定定价核的不完全市场上的最优套期保值问题。在这样的市场中,价格是唯一决定的,但通常没有完美的对冲。我们在l -伊藤市场的一般环境中工作,其中资产由n维布朗运动和n维状态空间上的独立泊松随机度量共同驱动。给定需要套期保值的头寸和可用作套期保值的工具,我们证明了最优套期保值组合的存在性,其中最优性是通过在指定的时间框架内使用最小期望平方误差标准来定义的,并且套期保值优化的数字被视为与指定定价核相关的基准过程。
{"title":"Optimal Hedging in Incomplete Markets","authors":"G. Bouzianis, L. Hughston","doi":"10.1080/1350486x.2020.1819831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486x.2020.1819831","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We consider the problem of optimal hedging in an incomplete market with an established pricing kernel. In such a market, prices are uniquely determined, but perfect hedges are usually not available. We work in the rather general setting of a Lévy-Ito market, where assets are driven jointly by an n-dimensional Brownian motion and an independent Poisson random measure on an n-dimensional state space. Given a position in need of hedging and the instruments available as hedges, we demonstrate the existence of an optimal hedge portfolio, where optimality is defined by use of a least expected squared error criterion over a specified time frame, and where the numeraire with respect to which the hedge is optimized is taken to be the benchmark process associated with the designated pricing kernel.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":"11 1","pages":"265 - 287"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74921395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
American Strangle Options 美国扼杀期权
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2020.1825968
Shi Qiu
ABSTRACT In this paper, we show that the double optimal stopping boundaries for American strangle options with finite horizon can be characterized as the unique pair of solution to a system of two nonlinear integral equations arising from the early exercise premium (EEP) representation. The proof of EEP representation is based on the change-of-variable formula with local time on curves. After comparing the return of the alternative portfolio including an American call and an American put option, we find that it is more preferable for an investor to select American strangle options to hedge an underlying asset with high volatility.
摘要本文证明了具有有限视界的美式勒勒期权的双最优停止边界可以表征为由早期期权溢价(EEP)表示的两个非线性积分方程系统的唯一解对。基于曲线上局部时间的变量变换公式证明了EEP表示。通过对包括美国看涨期权和美国看跌期权在内的另类投资组合的收益进行比较,我们发现投资者更倾向于选择美国扼杀期权来对冲高波动率的标的资产。
{"title":"American Strangle Options","authors":"Shi Qiu","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2020.1825968","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2020.1825968","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In this paper, we show that the double optimal stopping boundaries for American strangle options with finite horizon can be characterized as the unique pair of solution to a system of two nonlinear integral equations arising from the early exercise premium (EEP) representation. The proof of EEP representation is based on the change-of-variable formula with local time on curves. After comparing the return of the alternative portfolio including an American call and an American put option, we find that it is more preferable for an investor to select American strangle options to hedge an underlying asset with high volatility.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":"62 1","pages":"228 - 263"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83257394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Electricity Price Forecasting with Neural Networks on EPEX Order Books 基于EPEX订单的神经网络电价预测
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/1350486x.2020.1805337
Simon Schnürch, A. Wagner
ABSTRACT This paper employs machine learning algorithms to forecast German electricity spot market prices. The forecasts utilize in particular bid and ask order book data from the spot market but also fundamental market data like renewable infeed and expected total demand. Appropriate feature extraction for the order book data is developed proceeding from existing literature. Using cross-validation to optimize hyperparameters, neural networks and random forests are fit to the data. Their in-sample and out-of-sample performance is compared to statistical reference models. The machine learning models outperform traditional approaches.
摘要本文采用机器学习算法对德国电力现货市场价格进行预测。该预测特别利用了现货市场的买卖订单数据,也利用了可再生能源输入和预期总需求等基本市场数据。在现有文献的基础上,对订单数据进行了适当的特征提取。利用交叉验证优化超参数,神经网络和随机森林对数据进行拟合。它们的样本内和样本外性能与统计参考模型进行了比较。机器学习模型优于传统方法。
{"title":"Electricity Price Forecasting with Neural Networks on EPEX Order Books","authors":"Simon Schnürch, A. Wagner","doi":"10.1080/1350486x.2020.1805337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486x.2020.1805337","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper employs machine learning algorithms to forecast German electricity spot market prices. The forecasts utilize in particular bid and ask order book data from the spot market but also fundamental market data like renewable infeed and expected total demand. Appropriate feature extraction for the order book data is developed proceeding from existing literature. Using cross-validation to optimize hyperparameters, neural networks and random forests are fit to the data. Their in-sample and out-of-sample performance is compared to statistical reference models. The machine learning models outperform traditional approaches.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":"40 1","pages":"189 - 206"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73262295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
期刊
Applied Mathematical Finance
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1