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Optimal Asset Allocation for Retirement Saving: Deterministic Vs. Time Consistent Adaptive Strategies 退休储蓄的最优资产配置:确定性与时间一致的自适应策略
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2019.1584534
P. Forsyth, K. Vetzal
ABSTRACT We consider optimal asset allocation for an investor saving for retirement. The portfolio contains a bond index and a stock index. We use multi-period criteria and explore two types of strategies: deterministic strategies are based only on the time remaining until the anticipated retirement date, while adaptive strategies also consider the investor’s accumulated wealth. The vast majority of financial products designed for retirement saving use deterministic strategies (e.g., target date funds). In the deterministic case, we determine an optimal open loop control using mean-variance criteria. In the adaptive case, we use time consistent mean-variance and quadratic shortfall objectives. Tests based on both a synthetic market where the stock index is modelled by a jump-diffusion process and also on bootstrap resampling of long-term historical data show that the optimal adaptive strategies significantly outperform the optimal deterministic strategy. This suggests that investors are not being well served by the strategies currently dominating the marketplace.
我们考虑投资者为退休储蓄的最优资产配置。投资组合包括债券指数和股票指数。我们使用多期标准并探索了两种类型的策略:确定性策略仅基于到预期退休日期的剩余时间,而适应性策略也考虑投资者的累积财富。绝大多数为退休储蓄而设计的金融产品使用确定性策略(例如,目标日期基金)。在确定性情况下,我们使用均值-方差准则确定最优开环控制。在自适应情况下,我们使用时间一致的均值方差和二次短缺目标。基于跳跃-扩散过程建模的综合市场和长期历史数据的自举重采样的测试表明,最优自适应策略显著优于最优确定性策略。这表明,目前主导市场的策略并没有很好地服务于投资者。
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引用次数: 18
Network Effects in Default Clustering for Large Systems 大型系统默认集群中的网络效应
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2018-12-18 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2020.1724804
K. Spiliopoulos, Jia Yang
ABSTRACT We consider a large collection of dynamically interacting components defined on a weighted-directed graph determining the impact of the default of one component to another one. We prove a law of large numbers for the empirical measure capturing the evolution of the different components in the pool and from this we extract important information for quantities such as the loss rate in the overall pool as well as the mean impact on a given component from system-wide defaults. A singular value decomposition of the adjacency matrix of the graph allows to coarse-grain the system by focusing on the highest eigenvalues which also correspond to the components with the highest contagion impact on the pool. Numerical simulations demonstrate the theoretical findings.
我们考虑在加权有向图上定义的大量动态交互组件的集合,以确定一个组件的默认值对另一个组件的影响。我们证明了一个大数定律,用于捕获池中不同组件的演化的经验度量,并从中提取了诸如总体池中的损失率以及系统范围内默认值对给定组件的平均影响等数量的重要信息。图的邻接矩阵的奇异值分解允许通过关注最高特征值来粗粒度系统,这些特征值也对应于对池具有最高传染影响的组件。数值模拟验证了理论结果。
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引用次数: 7
Double Deep Q-Learning for Optimal Execution 双深度q -学习优化执行
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2018-12-17 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2022.2077783
Brian Ning, Franco Ho Ting Ling, S. Jaimungal
ABSTRACT Optimal trade execution is an important problem faced by essentially all traders. Much research into optimal execution uses stringent model assumptions and applies continuous time stochastic control to solve them. Here, we instead take a model free approach and develop a variation of Deep Q-Learning to estimate the optimal actions of a trader. The model is a fully connected Neural Network trained using Experience Replay and Double DQN with input features given by the current state of the limit order book, other trading signals, and available execution actions, while the output is the Q-value function estimating the future rewards under an arbitrary action. We apply our model to nine different stocks and find that it outperforms the standard benchmark approach on most stocks using the measures of (i) mean and median out-performance, (ii) probability of out-performance, and (iii) gain-loss ratios.
最优交易执行基本上是所有交易者都面临的一个重要问题。许多关于最优执行的研究都采用严格的模型假设,并采用连续时间随机控制来解决这些问题。在这里,我们采用了一种无模型的方法,并开发了一种深度q学习的变体来估计交易者的最佳行为。该模型是一个使用Experience Replay和Double DQN训练的全连接神经网络,其输入特征由限价单的当前状态、其他交易信号和可用的执行动作给出,而输出是估计任意动作下未来奖励的q值函数。我们将我们的模型应用于9只不同的股票,发现它在大多数股票上的表现优于标准基准方法,使用(i)平均和中位数表现,(ii)表现优异的概率,以及(iii)损益比。
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引用次数: 52
Optimal Market Making under Partial Information with General Intensities 一般强度下部分信息下最优做市
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3530446
L. Campi, Diego Zabaljauregui
ABSTRACT Starting from the Avellaneda–Stoikov framework, we consider a market maker who wants to optimally set bid/ask quotes over a finite time horizon, to maximize her expected utility. The intensities of the orders she receives depend not only on the spreads she quotes but also on unobservable factors modelled by a hidden Markov chain. We tackle this stochastic control problem under partial information with a model that unifies and generalizes many existing ones under full information, combining several risk metrics and constraints, and using general decreasing intensity functionals. We use stochastic filtering, control and piecewise-deterministic Markov processes theory, to reduce the dimensionality of the problem and characterize the reduced value function as the unique continuous viscosity solution of its dynamic programming equation. We then solve the analogous full information problem and compare the results numerically through a concrete example. We show that the optimal full information spreads are biased when the exact market regime is unknown, and the market maker needs to adjust for additional regime uncertainty in terms of P&L sensitivity and observed order flow volatility. This effect becomes higher, the longer the waiting time in between orders.
从Avellaneda-Stoikov框架出发,我们考虑一个做市商,他想在有限的时间范围内最优地设置买卖报价,以最大化他的预期效用。她收到的订单强度不仅取决于她报价的点差,还取决于由隐马尔可夫链建模的不可观察因素。我们用一个模型来解决这个部分信息下的随机控制问题,该模型统一和推广了许多在充分信息下的现有模型,结合了几个风险度量和约束,并使用了一般的递减强度函数。利用随机滤波、控制和分段确定性马尔可夫过程理论,对该问题进行降维处理,并将降维后的值函数表征为其动态规划方程的唯一连续黏度解。然后通过一个具体的算例,求解了类似的全信息问题,并对结果进行了数值比较。我们表明,当确切的市场制度未知时,最优的完全信息价差是有偏差的,做市商需要根据损益敏感性和观察到的订单流波动率来调整额外的制度不确定性。订单之间的等待时间越长,这种影响就越大。
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引用次数: 4
Log-Optimal Portfolios with Memory Effect 具有记忆效应的对数最优投资组合
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2018-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2018.1542323
Zsolt Nika, M. Rásonyi
ABSTRACT In portfolio optimization a classical problem is to trade with assets so as to maximize some kind of utility of the investor. In our paper this problem is investigated for assets whose prices depend on their past values in a non-Markovian way. Such models incorporate several features of real price processes better than Markov processes do. Our utility function is the widespread logarithmic utility, the formulation of the model is discrete in time. Despite the problem being a well-known one, there are few results where memory is treated systematically in a parametric model. Our algorithm is optimal and this optimality is guaranteed for a rich class of model specifications. Moreover, the algorithm runs online, i.e., the optimal investment is achieved in a day-by-day manner, using simple numerical integration, without Monte-Carlo simulations. Theoretical results are demonstrated by numerical experiments as well.
投资组合优化中的一个经典问题是如何使投资者的某种效用最大化。本文研究了资产价格以非马尔可夫方式依赖于其过去价值的问题。这些模型比马尔可夫过程更好地结合了实际价格过程的几个特征。我们的效用函数是广泛的对数效用,模型的公式在时间上是离散的。尽管这是一个众所周知的问题,但在参数模型中系统地处理记忆的结果很少。我们的算法是最优的,并且这种最优性对于丰富的模型规范类是有保证的。此外,该算法是在线运行的,即通过简单的数值积分,无需蒙特卡洛模拟,以逐日的方式实现最优投资。数值实验验证了理论结果。
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引用次数: 6
Hybrid Lévy Models: Design and Computational Aspects 混合lsamvy模型:设计和计算方面
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2018-10-30 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2018.1536523
E. Eberlein, Marcus Rudmann
ABSTRACT A hybrid model is a model, where two markets are studied jointly such that stochastic dependence can be taken into account. Such a dependence is well known for equity and interest rate markets on which we focus here. Other pairs can be considered in a similar way. Two different versions of a hybrid approach are developed. Independent time-inhomogeneous Lévy processes are used as the drivers of the dynamics of interest rates and equity. In both versions, the dynamics of the interest rate side is described by an equation for the instantaneous forward rate. Dependence between the markets is generated by introducing the driver of the interest rate market as an additional term into the dynamics of equity in the first version. The second version starts with the equity dynamics and uses a corresponding construction for the interest rate side. Dependence can be quantified in both cases by a single parameter. Numerically efficient valuation formulas for interest rate and equity derivatives are developed. Using market quotes for liquidly traded assets we show that the hybrid approach can be successfully calibrated.
混合模型是将两个市场联合研究,使其可以考虑随机依赖的模型。这种依赖在我们这里重点讨论的股票和利率市场中是众所周知的。其他对也可以用类似的方式考虑。开发了两种不同版本的混合方法。独立的时间非同质lsamvy过程被用作利率和公平动态的驱动因素。在这两个版本中,利率方面的动态都是用一个即时远期利率的方程来描述的。在第一个版本中,市场之间的依赖是通过将利率市场的驱动因素作为附加条款引入股权动态而产生的。第二个版本从股权动态开始,并对利率方面使用相应的结构。在这两种情况下,依赖性都可以通过一个参数来量化。开发了利率和股票衍生品的数值有效估值公式。利用流动性交易资产的市场报价,我们表明混合方法可以成功校准。
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引用次数: 3
Unbiased Deep Solvers for Linear Parametric PDEs 线性参数偏微分方程的无偏深度解
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2018-10-11 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2022.2030773
Marc Sabate Vidales, D. Šiška, L. Szpruch
We develop several deep learning algorithms for approximating families of parametric PDE solutions. The proposed algorithms approximate solutions together with their gradients, which in the context of mathematical finance means that the derivative prices and hedging strategies are computed simultaneously. Having approximated the gradient of the solution, one can combine it with a Monte Carlo simulation to remove the bias in the deep network approximation of the PDE solution (derivative price). This is achieved by leveraging the Martingale Representation Theorem and combining the Monte Carlo simulation with the neural network. The resulting algorithm is robust with respect to the quality of the neural network approximation and consequently can be used as a black box in case only limited a-priori information about the underlying problem is available. We believe this is important as neural network-based algorithms often require fair amount of tuning to produce satisfactory results. The methods are empirically shown to work for high-dimensional problems (e.g., 100 dimensions). We provide diagnostics that shed light on appropriate network architectures.
我们开发了几种用于逼近参数PDE解族的深度学习算法。所提出的算法连同其梯度近似解,在数学金融的背景下,这意味着衍生品价格和对冲策略是同时计算的。在近似解的梯度之后,可以将其与蒙特卡罗模拟相结合,以消除PDE解(导数价格)的深度网络近似中的偏差。这是通过利用鞅表示定理并将蒙特卡罗模拟与神经网络相结合来实现的。所得到的算法在神经网络近似的质量方面是鲁棒的,因此在只有有限的先验信息可用的情况下,可以用作黑盒。我们认为这很重要,因为基于神经网络的算法通常需要相当数量的调优才能产生令人满意的结果。经验表明,这些方法适用于高维问题(例如,100维)。我们提供诊断,阐明适当的网络架构。
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引用次数: 3
Closed-form Approximations in Multi-asset Market Making 多资产做市中的封闭逼近
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2018-10-10 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2021.1949359
Philippe Bergault, David Evangelista, Olivier Gu'eant, Douglas A. G. Vieira
ABSTRACT A large proportion of market making models derive from the seminal model of Avellaneda and Stoikov. The numerical approximation of the value function and the optimal quotes in these models remains a challenge when the number of assets is large. In this article, we propose closed-form approximations for the value functions of many multi-asset extensions of the Avellaneda–Stoikov model. These approximations or proxies can be used (i) as heuristic evaluation functions, (ii) as initial value functions in reinforcement learning algorithms, and/or (iii) directly to design quoting strategies through a greedy approach. Regarding the latter, our results lead to new and easily interpretable closed-form approximations for the optimal quotes, both in the finite-horizon case and in the asymptotic (ergodic) regime.
很大一部分做市模型来源于阿维利亚内达和斯托伊科夫的开创性模型。当资产数量较大时,这些模型中价值函数的数值逼近和最优报价仍然是一个挑战。在本文中,我们对Avellaneda-Stoikov模型的许多多资产扩展的值函数提出了封闭逼近。这些近似或代理可以使用(i)作为启发式评估函数,(ii)作为强化学习算法中的初始值函数,和/或(iii)直接通过贪婪方法设计引用策略。对于后者,我们的结果导致了新的和易于解释的最优报价的封闭形式近似,无论是在有限视界情况下还是在渐近(遍历)区域。
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引用次数: 18
Diffusion Equations: Convergence of the Functional Scheme Derived from the Binomial Tree with Local Volatility for Non Smooth Payoff Functions 扩散方程:非光滑收益函数的局部波动二叉树泛函格式的收敛性
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2018-10-04 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2018.1513806
Julien Baptiste, E. Lépinette
ABSTRACT The function solution to the functional scheme derived from the binomial tree financial model with local volatility converges to the solution of a diffusion equation of type as the number of discrete dates . Contrarily to classical numerical methods, in particular finite difference methods, the principle behind the functional scheme is only based on a discretization in time. We establish the uniform convergence in time of the scheme and provide the rate of convergence when the payoff function is not necessarily smooth as in finance. We illustrate the convergence result and compare its performance to the finite difference and finite element methods by numerical examples.
具有局部波动率的二叉树金融模型的泛函格式的函数解收敛于一类离散日期数的扩散方程的解。与经典数值方法,特别是有限差分方法不同,泛函格式背后的原理仅基于时间上的离散化。建立了该方案在时间上的一致收敛性,并给出了支付函数不一定平滑时的收敛速度。通过数值算例说明了收敛结果,并将其与有限差分法和有限元法的性能进行了比较。
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引用次数: 1
On Carr and Lee’s Correlation Immunization Strategy 卡尔和李的相关免疫策略
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2018-09-26 DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2019.1598276
Jimin Lin, Matthew J. Lorig
ABSTRACT In their seminal work Robust Replication of Volatility Derivatives, Carr and Lee show how to robustly price and replicate a variety of claims written on the quadratic variation of a risky asset under the assumption that the asset’s volatility process is independent of the Brownian motion that drives the asset’s price. Additionally, they propose a correlation immunization strategy that minimizes the pricing and hedging error that results when the correlation between the risky asset’s price and volatility is non-zero. In this paper, we show that the correlation immunization strategy is the only strategy among the class of strategies discussed in Carr and Lee's paper that results in real-valued hedging portfolios when the correlation between the asset’s price and volatility is non-zero. Additionally, we perform a number of Monte Carlo experiments to test the effectiveness of Carr and Lee’s immunization strategy. Our results indicate that the correlation immunization method is an effective means of reducing pricing and hedging errors that result from a non-zero correlation.
在他们的开创性著作《波动衍生品的稳健复制》中,Carr和Lee展示了如何在假设资产的波动过程独立于驱动资产价格的布朗运动的情况下,稳健地定价和复制风险资产的各种二次变化的索赔。此外,他们提出了一种相关免疫策略,该策略可以最大限度地减少风险资产价格与波动率之间的相关性为非零时产生的定价和套期保值误差。在本文中,我们证明了当资产价格与波动率之间的相关性不为零时,相关免疫策略是Carr和Lee论文中讨论的策略类中唯一产生实值对冲组合的策略。此外,我们进行了一些蒙特卡罗实验来测试卡尔和李的免疫策略的有效性。我们的研究结果表明,相关免疫方法是一种有效的手段,可以减少由非零相关引起的定价和套期保值错误。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Applied Mathematical Finance
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