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Kish: Where Customers Pay As They Wish 基什:顾客按自己的意愿付款
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2010-07-15 DOI: 10.2202/1546-5616.1118
Ju-Young Kim, M. Natter, Martin Spann
New restaurants often do not manage to succeed within a reasonable amount of time. Exotic restaurants especially face the problem that price promotions may not attract new customers because prospective customers might associate very low prices for unfamiliar food with a high functional risk. This paper describes how Pay-What-You-Want (PWYW), a new pricing mechanism, was successfully implemented at Kish, a moderately priced Persian restaurant in downtown Frankfurt. After the initial testing phase, which had the characteristics of a promotional offer, the restaurant decided to permanently offer its buffet lunch under PWYW conditions. We report the long-term effects of this decision as well as a simulation demonstrating that profitability is mainly based on 'trading up' the continuous inflow of new customers to the more profitable dining offer where prices are fixed.
新开的餐馆往往不能在合理的时间内成功。异国情调的餐馆尤其面临价格促销可能无法吸引新顾客的问题,因为潜在顾客可能会将不熟悉的食物的超低价格与高功能风险联系起来。本文描述了法兰克福市中心一家价格适中的波斯餐厅Kish如何成功实施一种新的定价机制——按需付费(Pay-What-You-Want, PWYW)。在最初的测试阶段(具有促销活动的特征)之后,餐厅决定在PWYW条件下永久提供自助午餐。我们报告了这一决定的长期影响,并通过模拟表明,盈利能力主要是基于“交易”不断涌入的新客户,而这些客户的价格是固定的,更有利可图的餐饮服务。
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引用次数: 50
DemoImpact: Modeling, Forecasting and Managing the Impact of Major US Sociodemographic Trends on Multi-Category Snack Consumption 人口影响:建模、预测和管理美国主要社会人口趋势对多类别零食消费的影响
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2010-07-15 DOI: 10.2202/1546-5616.1115
Marina Girju, M. Adams, B. Ratchford
The US population is changing dramatically, e.g. aging, migrating, becoming more racially diverse and overweight, etc. We examine how these major shifts affect snack consumption and, therefore, how Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) manufacturers should adjust their business-as-usual practices. We present the development and implementation of DemoImpact, a consumption forecasting model and decision support system for all snacks available on the US market (900+). It captures the effects of 48 demographic variables (age, gender, marital status, obesity, education, income…), and accounts for the effects of significant holidays and seasons. DemoImpact is built on 6 years of historical snack consumption and uses the US Census demographic predictions to forecast consumption frequency and volume. The model was implemented at a leading CPG company and forecasted consumption well. The DSS enables top and mid-level managers first to understand how the consumer is changing, and then how to prepare for the change in tastes and how to develop accurate forecasts. DemoImpact has been used, validated and extended since 2006. We show how the CPG manufacturer embraced the results of the model, adjusted its business strategy and impacted retailers in its sales channel.
美国人口正在发生巨大变化,例如老龄化、移民、种族多样化和超重等。我们研究了这些重大转变如何影响零食消费,因此,消费者包装商品(CPG)制造商应该如何调整他们的业务惯例。我们介绍了DemoImpact的开发和实施,这是一个消费预测模型和决策支持系统,适用于美国市场上所有的零食(超过900种)。它捕获了48个人口变量(年龄、性别、婚姻状况、肥胖、教育、收入…)的影响,并考虑了重要节日和季节的影响。DemoImpact基于6年的零食消费历史,并使用美国人口普查预测来预测消费频率和数量。该模型在一家领先的消费品公司得到了应用,并对消费进行了很好的预测。DSS使高层和中层管理人员首先了解消费者是如何变化的,然后如何为口味的变化做好准备,以及如何做出准确的预测。DemoImpact自2006年以来一直在使用、验证和扩展。我们展示了CPG制造商如何接受模型的结果,调整其商业策略并影响其销售渠道中的零售商。
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引用次数: 2
Analyzing Causal Effects with Observational Studies for Evidence-based Marketing at IBM 用观察性研究分析IBM循证营销的因果效应
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2010-07-15 DOI: 10.2202/1546-5616.1116
S. Manganaris, Ruchi Bhasin, M. Reid, K. Hermiz
Sound marketing decisions often require understanding the cause-and-effect relationships between treatment and outcomes. Market research traditionally approaches such questions by designing randomized experiments that aim to isolate the effects of the specific treatment from other effects. We review an alternate methodology that is well suited to observational studies, where the analyst cannot control how treatment is applied. The methodology uses propensity scoring and matching to emulate the randomization of treatment. It is well established in other fields, but not widely known among marketers in spite of the fact that non-experimental data is common in marketing studies. We present two applications as case studies to illustrate the value of the methodology and to describe how we addressed some of the practical issues, in sufficient detail for readers to be able to use the methodology in similar studies.
合理的营销决策通常需要理解治疗和结果之间的因果关系。市场研究传统上通过设计随机实验来解决这类问题,旨在将特定治疗的影响与其他影响隔离开来。我们回顾了一种非常适合观察性研究的替代方法,在观察性研究中,分析师无法控制如何应用治疗。该方法使用倾向评分和匹配来模拟治疗的随机化。它在其他领域得到了很好的确立,但在营销人员中并不广为人知,尽管非实验数据在营销研究中很常见。我们提出了两个应用作为案例研究来说明该方法的价值,并描述了我们如何解决一些实际问题,足够详细,以便读者能够在类似的研究中使用该方法。
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引用次数: 1
A Utility-Based Diffusion Model Applied to the Digital Camera Case 基于效用的扩散模型在数码相机案例中的应用
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2010-06-03 DOI: 10.2202/1546-5616.1105
Yair Orbach, G. Fruchter
We present a model that deals with the challenge of forecasting market acceptance and technology evolution along the product lifecycle, pre-launch. Market growth is driven by product's utility increase due to technology evolution, while firms' product improvements strategies are motivated by market growth and directed by market preferences. The interdependency between utility increase and market growth makes the problem inherently dynamic. To find the dependency of utility increase on market growth, we conduct an industry and technology analysis that follows industry financial policies, innovation orientation, industry players' inter-relations and technologic capabilities. For relating market preferences and purchase intentions to product's utility, we use data collected by a conjoint study. The ability to collect and interpret data about both demand and supply aspects, before the product is introduced, leads to a pre-launch forecasting. The evolution of the cumulative adoption level over time, as a result of the technology evolution, and vice versa, is based on both customer purchase decision processes and firms’ responses. We demonstrate the applicability of the model on the digital camera market.
我们提出了一个模型,该模型处理了在产品生命周期和发布前预测市场接受度和技术发展的挑战。市场增长是由技术进步带来的产品效用增加所驱动的,而企业的产品改进策略是由市场增长所驱动并受市场偏好所指导的。效用增加和市场增长之间的相互依赖使得这个问题本质上是动态的。为了发现效用增长对市场增长的依赖关系,我们根据行业金融政策、创新导向、行业参与者的相互关系和技术能力进行了行业和技术分析。为了将市场偏好和购买意愿与产品效用联系起来,我们使用了联合研究收集的数据。在产品推出之前,收集和解释需求和供应方面的数据的能力,导致了发布前的预测。随着时间的推移,累积采用水平的演变,作为技术演变的结果,反之亦然,是基于客户购买决策过程和企业的反应。我们论证了该模型在数码相机市场上的适用性。
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引用次数: 4
Competition, Risk and Return in the US Grocery Industry 美国食品杂货行业的竞争、风险与回报
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2010-06-03 DOI: 10.2202/1546-5616.1095
M. Corstjens, Ludo Vanderheyden
This paper studies competition and financial market performance of the US grocery sector over a period of almost 50 years (1960-2007), using the Sharpe-Fama-French-Carhart standard performance attribution methodology. Following Hou and Robinson (2006), investors in industries with strong (resp. weak) competitive pressures demand a positive (resp. negative) return premium commensurate with the competitive risk incurred. We examine whether such a Hou-Robinson premium exists in the US grocery sector.We find no statistical evidence of a Hou-Robinson premium for the sector as a whole. The sector thus appears to be correctly priced. When, however, our sample is separated into larger and smaller firms, the portfolio of larger firms exhibits a positive Hou-Robinson premium, while that of smaller firms exhibits a negative premium. This result supports the dual nature of competition in the US grocery sector.Furthermore, when we compare the risk-adjusted average return of the larger retail firms in the grocery portfolio with that of the larger manufacturing firms in the same portfolio, we find no statistically significant difference. The larger manufacturing and retail firms in the grocery supply chain seem to share the same level of competitive risk. However, the portfolio of smaller manufacturing firms does not exhibit the negative premium seen in the portfolio of smaller retail firms, indicating that the latter are able to shield themselves from competitive pressures in a way that their manufacturing counterparts are not.
本文使用Sharpe-Fama-French-Carhart标准绩效归因方法,研究了近50年(1960-2007)期间美国杂货行业的竞争和金融市场绩效。继Hou和Robinson(2006)之后,投资者在具有较强(尊重)的行业中。微弱的竞争压力需要积极的应对。负)回报溢价与所产生的竞争风险相称。我们研究了美国食品杂货行业是否存在这样的侯-罗宾逊溢价。我们没有发现统计证据表明整个行业存在侯-罗宾逊溢价。因此,该板块的定价似乎是正确的。然而,当我们的样本被分为大公司和小公司时,大公司的投资组合表现出正的侯-罗宾逊溢价,而小公司的投资组合表现出负溢价。这一结果支持了美国食品杂货行业竞争的双重性质。此外,当我们比较食品杂货投资组合中较大的零售公司与相同投资组合中较大的制造公司的风险调整后的平均回报时,我们发现没有统计学上的显著差异。在食品杂货供应链中,较大的制造和零售公司似乎分担着同样水平的竞争风险。然而,小型制造公司的投资组合并没有表现出小型零售公司投资组合中的负溢价,这表明后者能够保护自己免受竞争压力的影响,而他们的制造业对手却没有。
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引用次数: 0
The Privacy Paradox: The Case of Secondary Disclosure 隐私悖论:二次披露的案例
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2009-12-01 DOI: 10.2202/1546-5616.1072
Giles D'souza, J. Phelps
This paper examines the effect of privacy concerns on purchase likelihood. In many consumer-seller relationships, consumers are required to provide personal information to marketers in order to get better service. The law requires that marketer provide a statement of their privacy policies to consumers. Secondary disclosure is a key aspect of privacy policies. Consumers are concerned about giving up privacy, but the impact of such concerns on purchase behavior is unclear. By integrating several marketer-controlled variables like price, product, and channels with a marketer’s secondary disclosure policy, the study measures the relative importance of the latter along with the effects of secondary disclosure and internet attitudes. The results show that secondary disclosure attitudes influence the weight of secondary disclosure policies in purchase situations. The results also indicate that price sensitivity is influenced by secondary disclosure policies. The clear implications are that privacy concerns do matter and that privacy policies and marketing strategies cannot be set in isolation of each other. The findings are discussed in relation to prior research on privacy and future research directions. Statistical techniques used in the paper include structural equation models, conjoint analysis, and simultaneous equation regression.
本文考察了隐私问题对购买可能性的影响。在许多消费者-卖家关系中,消费者需要向营销人员提供个人信息,以便获得更好的服务。法律要求营销人员向消费者提供他们的隐私政策声明。二次披露是隐私政策的一个关键方面。消费者担心放弃隐私,但这种担忧对购买行为的影响尚不清楚。通过整合几个由营销人员控制的变量,如价格、产品和渠道与营销人员的二次披露政策,该研究测量了后者的相对重要性以及二次披露和互联网态度的影响。结果表明,二级披露态度影响了二级披露政策在购买情境中的权重。结果还表明,二级披露政策会影响价格敏感性。其明确的含义是,隐私问题确实很重要,隐私政策和营销策略的制定不能相互孤立。研究结果与以往的隐私研究和未来的研究方向进行了讨论。本文使用的统计技术包括结构方程模型、联合分析和联立方程回归。
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引用次数: 17
A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Alternate Auction Policies for Search Advertisements 搜索广告备选拍卖政策的理论与实证分析
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2009-12-01 DOI: 10.2202/1546-5616.1101
S. Balachander, Karthik N. Kannan, D. Schwartz
In the online world, publishers place ads from advertisers adjacent to internet search results for a given keyword. To sell such advertising, web publishers auction multiple ad slots using a generalized second-price auction. In this paper, we compare two auction policies that publishers can use to determine the rank and payments of bidding advertisers. The first policy, the highest bid policy, ranks ads based on the bids submitted while the second policy, the highest profit policy, ranks ads based on the expected profit generated to the publisher. Interestingly, we find that the highest profit policy may generate lower publisher profits per keyword even though it uses more information. Subsequently, we use data from a search engine and empirically establish that the correlation between valuations and click through rates are positive, an important assumption in our theoretical model. This finding provides significant support for the theoretical results.
在网络世界中,出版商将广告商的广告放在给定关键词的互联网搜索结果旁边。为了销售这样的广告,网络出版商使用一种普遍的二次价格拍卖来拍卖多个广告位。在本文中,我们比较了两种拍卖政策,发布商可以使用它们来确定出价广告商的排名和支付。第一个策略,即最高出价策略,根据提交的出价对广告进行排名,而第二个策略,即最高利润策略,根据对发布者产生的预期利润对广告进行排名。有趣的是,我们发现即使使用了更多的信息,最高利润策略也可能产生较低的每个关键字发行商利润。随后,我们使用来自搜索引擎的数据,并通过经验建立估值和点击率之间的相关性是正的,这是我们理论模型中的一个重要假设。这一发现为理论结果提供了重要的支持。
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引用次数: 19
Regression Analysis of Marketing Time Series: A Wavelet Approach with Some Frequency Domain Insights 营销时间序列的回归分析:一种具有频域洞察力的小波方法
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2009-01-14 DOI: 10.2202/1546-5616.1083
Antonis A. Michis
Regression analysis with time series data is frequently used in marketing research. However, despite its popularity and ease of interpretation it cannot provide any information regarding the relations between marketing time series over different frequencies. This article proposes a new research tool, wavelet analysis, that when incorporated in regression analysis can provide some frequency domain insights about the effectiveness of marketing instruments over different cycles. In addition, by adopting appropriate regression-modeling techniques, wavelets can provide increased estimation and prediction accuracy of marketing causal effects.
时间序列数据的回归分析在市场研究中经常被使用。然而,尽管它很受欢迎,也很容易解释,但它不能提供关于不同频率上营销时间序列之间关系的任何信息。本文提出了一种新的研究工具,小波分析,当与回归分析相结合时,可以提供一些关于不同周期营销工具有效性的频域见解。此外,通过采用适当的回归建模技术,小波可以提高市场因果效应的估计和预测精度。
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引用次数: 4
Quality, Sunk Costs and Competition 质量、沉没成本与竞争
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2009-01-05 DOI: 10.2202/1546-5616.1096
J. Crespi, S. Marette
This paper explores the link between quality, cost and concentration. Using concentration and cost data and product quality indicators for 2,244 products in over eighty industries in 1997 and 2002 in the US, a two-stage, ordered probit, random effects estimation explores the impact of concentration and cost on quality. The results demonstrate that overall market concentration and high fixed costs are both positively correlated with product quality across most industries. Generally, when either industry concentration or industry fixed costs increase, the likelihood of the product being higher quality increases and the likelihood of observing a lower quality decreases. Further, the authors confirm that prices are a good signal of product quality. A theoretical model is also derived.
本文探讨了质量、成本和集中度之间的联系。利用1997年和2002年美国80多个行业的2244种产品的浓度和成本数据和产品质量指标,一个两阶段,有序probit,随机效应估计探索了浓度和成本对质量的影响。结果表明,在大多数行业中,总体市场集中度和高固定成本都与产品质量呈正相关。一般来说,当行业集中度或行业固定成本增加时,高质量产品的可能性增加,低质量产品的可能性降低。此外,作者证实,价格是产品质量的一个很好的信号。并推导了理论模型。
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引用次数: 7
Survival Determinants for Online Retailers 在线零售商的生存决定因素
Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2009-01-03 DOI: 10.2202/1546-5616.1075
Ralitza Nikolaeva, Manohar U. Kalwani, W. T. Robinson, S. Sriram
Survival determinants can influence important strategic decisions. Analysis of longitudinal data on 418 online retailers in fourteen Bizrate product categories yields insights into key survival determinants. Survival tends to be easier for introductory versus growth stage entrants. Survival, however, is more difficult for e-tailers who sell touch and feel products and for pure e-tailers who do not have the support of either brick and mortar stores or catalog operations. While introductory stage entrants have higher survival rates versus growth stage entrants, there is no significant impact for rank order of entry or pioneer leadtime. These mixed results point to modest early mover advantages in online retailing. While some e-tailers like Amazon.com benefited from moving early, many others suffered from pioneer burnout.
生存决定因素可以影响重要的战略决策。对14个Bizrate产品类别的418个在线零售商的纵向数据进行分析,得出了关键生存决定因素的见解。入门阶段的进入者比成长阶段的进入者更容易生存。然而,对于那些销售触觉产品的电子零售商和那些没有实体店或目录业务支持的纯电子零售商来说,生存起来更加困难。虽然入门阶段进入者的存活率高于成长阶段进入者,但对进入者的排名顺序或先锋交货时间没有显著影响。这些喜忧参半的结果表明,在线零售中存在着适度的先发优势。虽然亚马逊(Amazon.com)等一些电子零售商从早期行动中受益,但许多其他零售商却因先锋倦怠而遭受损失。
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引用次数: 12
期刊
Review of Marketing Science
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